Cheery-Science — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$8.98K

Unrealized P&L

+$532

Hit rate

68.1%

Resolved

845

Trades

3,501

lifetime

Volume

$404.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$116

Open exposure

$5.45K

17 positions

First seen

2026-04-25

last 11-03 14:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 149 days

Categories

Other

51% 48% +$699

Politics

23% 55% +$7,221

Sports

17% 42% -$13,911

Tech

4% 6% -$3,137

Crypto

3% 54% +$73

Pop-Culture

2% 50% +$73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 62 trades/day

Open positions (17) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	No	+1,525	$389	63¢	$964	+$575	10-25 13:09
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	+1,396	$1,246	57¢	$796	-$450	10-30 05:25
Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026?	No	+2,921	$572	26¢	$745	+$173	10-24 11:56
Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	+708	$537	90¢	$634	+$96	10-31 02:04
Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?	Yes	+1,714	$308	34¢	$592	+$283	10-18 14:30
US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	No	+1,039	$566	55¢	$571	+$6	10-22 11:11
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+332	$259	94¢	$314	+$55	05-08 15:21
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+275	$209	74¢	$202	-$7	10-29 20:07
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	No	+228	$166	88¢	$201	+$36	09-30 17:12
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+170	$134	78¢	$132	-$2	10-30 15:14
Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+200	$83	50¢	$100	+$18	10-30 19:04
Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	+476	$189	20¢	$93	-$96	10-28 18:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+270	$61	22¢	$61	$0	10-29 20:13
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+427	$77	7¢	$30	-$47	11-01 18:54
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	+177	$23	6¢	$10	-$13	09-15 17:31
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+9	$204	14¢	$1	-$203	11-01 17:46
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+0	-$109	98¢	$0	+$109	06-30 12:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	22	$11.8K	14,722	0	+14,722	No	+$2,968	06-13 10:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	19	$7.3K	17,385	4,603	+12,782	Yes	-$1,282	07-23 02:36
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	2	$7.0K	7,000	0	+7,000	No	+$21	06-03 20:41
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	18	$6.7K	6,240	6,240	+0	Yes	+$5,562	10-16 18:35
Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?	32	$5.7K	6,143	3,013	+3,130	No	+$1,705	08-14 01:41
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$5.6K	2,958	2,958	+0	No	+$119	06-30 17:57
grok 4pt6 released by august 12 2026	19	$5.3K	3,842	3,842	-0	Yes	+$2,412	08-12 15:53
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 4 weeks or more?	8	$5.1K	5,582	0	+5,582	Yes	+$520	06-08 14:06
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	10	$4.8K	5,948	5,948	+0	open	—	08-08 13:51
Will “The Daily Show” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	12	$4.7K	3,799	1,136	+2,664	No	-$8	09-14 01:19
will kanye west perform at the 2027 big game halftime show 253	8	$4.6K	2,713	2,713	+0	open	—	10-22 00:38
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	20	$4.5K	4,500	4,500	+0	open	—	10-12 01:01
us x iran diplomatic meeting by march 31 2027 20260922	24	$4.4K	3,032	2,772	+260	No	+$771	09-30 12:33
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11 holloway win by ko tko	2	$4.3K	10,000	0	+10,000	Yes	-$4,300	07-12 01:06
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25?	2	$4.1K	5,700	0	+5,700	No	+$1,603	06-25 22:18
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$4.0K	7,713	0	+7,713	Yes	-$113	06-21 03:46
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	2	$3.9K	2,043	2,043	+0	No	+$49	07-23 09:00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	14	$3.8K	8,935	1,252	+7,683	No	-$2,659	07-05 21:50
gpt 5pt6 released by july 9 2026	32	$3.7K	7,446	2,661	+4,785	Yes	-$360	07-09 05:42
will the next google gemini pro model be released by august 14 2026	19	$3.6K	2,050	2,050	+0	No	+$197	08-13 09:15
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 24-August 30?	24	$3.6K	2,044	2,044	+0	No	+$350	09-02 10:27
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$3.6K	3,837	0	+3,837	Yes	+$225	10-26 12:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	34	$3.6K	12,683	12,381	+302	No	+$724	07-28 07:30
Will Scotland be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?	6	$3.6K	4,492	569	+3,923	Yes	-$1,992	06-26 16:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$3.6K	2,292	1,911	+381	No	+$413	07-11 15:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$3.4K	6,516	0	+6,516	No	-$3,339	08-30 06:08
Will “Last Week Tonight With John Oliver” win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety series?	4	$3.4K	3,169	505	+2,664	No	+$134	09-14 00:51
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs?	8	$3.4K	7,653	0	+7,653	Yes	-$3,351	09-13 08:11
will the next claude opus model be released by july 31 2026 20260709185050343 272 345 875 539 124	19	$3.3K	2,068	2,068	+0	Yes	+$39	07-24 03:33
next mythos class model released by july 31 2026	20	$3.1K	2,395	1,247	+1,148	No	+$372	07-27 08:04

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 14:10:51	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	200	100¢	$199	0x06b8c0…
11-03 12:48:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	No	SELL	15	92¢	$14	0x3fcf4b…
11-03 12:47:42	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 15%-18%?	No	SELL	420	95¢	$399	0x1654d0…
11-03 12:43:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Oregon gubernatorial election by 12%-15%?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xb5cf23…
11-03 12:38:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-06 House election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$171	0x1cb6f9…
11-03 09:34:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 HI-01 House election by 55% or more?	No	SELL	40	92¢	$37	0xeff51c…
11-03 05:01:03	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	205	79¢	$162	0x77e53a…
11-03 03:54:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-12 House election by 70%-75%?	No	SELL	200	76¢	$152	0xc17572…
11-02 16:35:33	California Immunology Research Bond Proposition	No	SELL	47	10¢	$5	0xb750a8…
11-02 09:08:45	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	94	94¢	$89	0x862f2a…
11-02 08:14:19	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-06 House election by 5%-10%?	No	SELL	200	86¢	$172	0xddf8ba…
11-02 07:17:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-14 House election by 25%-30%?	No	BUY	205	78¢	$160	0xd4b702…
11-02 05:52:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-10 House election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	58	93¢	$54	0xf1c1b3…
11-02 05:40:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-03 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	205	80¢	$164	0x75ecde…
11-02 05:35:07	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NV-02 House election by 18% or more?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xb9da2d…
11-02 01:34:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	86	67¢	$58	0xb46bb2…
11-01 19:09:36	Will the Democrats win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	65¢	$141	0x7837c7…
11-01 19:09:16	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	215	22¢	$47	0x48b146…
11-01 19:03:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MO-01 House election by 50%-55%?	No	SELL	225	96¢	$215	0x05d77f…
11-01 18:58:30	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	25	69¢	$17	0xdafe42…
11-01 18:54:54	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	427	18¢	$77	0x581491…
11-01 18:44:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-08 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	139	87¢	$121	0x65c2ee…
11-01 18:43:42	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-08 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	60	88¢	$53	0xced7b2…
11-01 18:40:46	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Idaho Senate election by 0%-5%?	No	SELL	53	94¢	$50	0xfea2c5…
11-01 18:35:58	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$178	0x22c778…
11-01 18:31:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x701e83…
11-01 18:18:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CO-02 House election by 55%-60%?	No	SELL	183	89¢	$163	0x7d8543…
11-01 18:09:46	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Georgia gubernatorial election by 12% or more?	No	SELL	190	99¢	$188	0x93258a…
11-01 18:01:07	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IN-08 House election by 30%-35%?	No	SELL	200	94¢	$188	0x4a2dc0…
11-01 17:46:09	Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1,154	17¢	$197	0x61c4ba…
11-01 17:43:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Connecticut gubernatorial election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	200	75¢	$150	0xc6288a…
11-01 17:13:28	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x456f81…
11-01 15:30:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MN-01 House election by 18% or more?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0xbf4351…
11-01 13:58:24	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-08 House election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	10	88¢	$9	0x00bfc7…
11-01 09:34:15	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more?	Yes	BUY	1,252	17¢	$217	0xc60e40…
11-01 01:52:58	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 45%-50%?	No	BUY	134	75¢	$101	0x75b5e1…
10-31 13:01:03	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 GA-11 House election by 35% or more?	No	BUY	19	92¢	$17	0xb3dc64…
10-31 11:39:04	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MI-10 House election by 6% or more?	No	BUY	200	83¢	$166	0x40fceb…
10-31 08:20:54	Will the Democrats win Genesee County in the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	86¢	$172	0x32c266…
10-31 02:06:57	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%?	No	SELL	205	88¢	$181	0x9d8eb8…
10-31 02:04:43	Will PSOE win the most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	500	84¢	$420	0x62611c…
10-30 19:24:45	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement?	No	SELL	195	57¢	$111	0x4cbd68…
10-30 19:13:30	Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	SELL	200	1¢	$1	0x6ad410…
10-30 19:04:15	Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	200	41¢	$83	0xc067e2…
10-30 18:32:16	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	197	79¢	$155	0xc0d78c…
10-30 18:21:27	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	168	88¢	$148	0xe40ed6…
10-30 18:13:01	Will Dejan Bodiroga be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	Yes	BUY	200	2¢	$4	0xbd4da7…
10-30 16:54:28	Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? (copy)	No	SELL	256	98¢	$251	0x69c505…
10-30 16:29:54	Will Drake headline Coachella 2027?	No	BUY	217	55¢	$120	0xb9eb76…
10-30 15:23:30	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be less than 1.5%?	No	BUY	500	80¢	$402	0x04afa3…
10-30 15:21:55	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be less than 1.5%?	No	BUY	500	77¢	$385	0xaa5ae3…
10-30 15:14:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8039d6…
10-30 14:49:42	Will SZA headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	BUY	94	37¢	$34	0x583c05…
10-30 14:20:57	Will Donald Trump visit New Mexico in 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	13¢	$8	0x23014a…
10-30 13:43:36	Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	BUY	286	54¢	$153	0x81b1a0…
10-30 13:39:58	Will Tame Impala headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	BUY	190	60¢	$113	0xe6e5d8…
10-30 13:07:13	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 FL-24 House election by 55% or more?	Yes	BUY	200	12¢	$24	0x7aa507…
10-30 11:28:49	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	13	24¢	$3	0x770cc2…
10-30 11:27:12	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	SELL	73	23¢	$17	0x664fb4…
10-30 10:36:58	Will Hyperliquid reach $104 in October?	Yes	SELL	93	9¢	$8	0x2a0d1b…
10-30 06:01:18	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-03 House election by 18% or more?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$169	0x88f434…
10-30 05:57:22	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NC-10 House election by 30% or more?	No	BUY	200	90¢	$179	0x07cc79…
10-30 05:44:55	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%?	No	SELL	187	86¢	$161	0x92bfbb…
10-30 05:41:43	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 CT-03 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$143	0xbb2d7f…
10-30 05:34:46	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	23	10¢	$2	0xdf07c0…
10-30 05:34:45	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb2fad1…
10-30 05:34:45	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	30	10¢	$3	0x979a94…
10-30 05:34:45	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	110	8¢	$9	0x471864…
10-30 05:34:45	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be greater than 4.0%?	Yes	BUY	27	10¢	$3	0x17f86e…
10-30 05:25:48	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x1b5185…
10-30 05:13:48	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Kentucky Senate election by 0%-10%?	No	SELL	161	86¢	$138	0xa23896…
10-30 03:18:13	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	29¢	$1	0x5293f4…
10-30 03:17:45	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	181	37¢	$67	0x262be6…
10-29 20:13:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	170	23¢	$39	0xa1972b…
10-29 20:10:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	165	79¢	$130	0xd893d5…
10-29 20:07:34	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	275	76¢	$209	0x350560…
10-29 20:00:54	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	165	36¢	$60	0xc9c4d5…
10-29 13:02:02	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	348	24¢	$84	0xdae8fb…
10-29 10:05:01	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	100	22¢	$22	0x5fb0fb…
10-29 09:04:44	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	320	78¢	$249	0x1b388c…
10-29 09:01:10	Will Novak Djokovic announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	175	85¢	$148	0x2e88fa…
10-29 06:43:07	Will "The Cat in the Hat" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?	No	BUY	60	17¢	$10	0x75f6a3…
10-29 06:32:44	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	108	79¢	$85	0xb77e57…
10-29 06:27:11	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	182	79¢	$144	0x648d2f…
10-29 06:15:43	Will Trump say "Hormuz" or "Blockade" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	BUY	120	79¢	$95	0x63c408…
10-29 03:50:31	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IA-02 House election by 12% or more?	Yes	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x9fd74a…
10-29 03:40:38	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 PA-14 House election by 45% or more?	No	BUY	200	89¢	$179	0x673fe7…
10-29 03:36:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OH-15 House election by 6% or more?	Yes	BUY	177	4¢	$7	0xe52135…
10-28 18:06:59	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	233	40¢	$93	0x646972…
10-28 17:59:32	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	243	39¢	$95	0x72ad3a…
10-28 15:42:10	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-11 House election by 12% or more?	Yes	BUY	200	18¢	$37	0x5dbd71…
10-28 14:46:44	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	27	11¢	$3	0x2ba65c…
10-28 13:14:19	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	118	9¢	$11	0x1357df…
10-28 08:51:35	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	150	10¢	$15	0x9c7427…
10-28 08:45:52	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 WI-08 House election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	209	79¢	$165	0x88c05f…
10-28 03:51:35	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	28	13¢	$4	0xc461f0…
10-27 20:42:53	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 VA-09 House election by 55% or more?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xed4c32…
10-27 19:33:35	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	401	72¢	$289	0x245bac…
10-27 19:26:26	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	1,000	71¢	$711	0x8d2fb8…
10-27 19:19:45	Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	23	71¢	$16	0x2ded79…