Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 MS-04 House election by 45%-50%?
open
Total volume
$747
Trades
112
Unique wallets
36
Liquidity
$40
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-08-27
last 11-02 00:27
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-12.2¢
(top1%: 1% YES on $340
vs crowd: 13% YES on $696)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 16 | $43 | $420 | $377 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 5 | $13 | $146 | $133 |
| 🐟 Fish | 10 | $9 | $39 | $29 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 5 | $27 | — | +$27 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 10 | $3 | $337 | $333 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 3 | $0 | — | +$0 |
| ✅ Top 10% | 2 | — | $24 | $24 |
| Median | 3 | $25 | $10 | +$15 |
| Below median | 1 | $1 | — | +$1 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 3 | $4 | — | +$4 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 7 | $24 | $50 | $26 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 7 | $35 | $184 | $149 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | +245 | $17 | $17 | 9 | 10-29 19:47 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +182 | $176 | $176 | 9 | 10-15 15:21 |
| Cheery-Science 0x3089…92f6 | No | +134 | $101 | $101 | 1 | 11-01 01:52 |
| (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | +101 | $25 | $25 | 4 | 11-02 00:27 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +96 | $5 | $5 | 3 | 10-15 15:21 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | +85 | $3 | $3 | 3 | 10-15 21:27 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +55 | $49 | $49 | 5 | 09-26 08:35 |
| (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | +53 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 11-01 01:52 |
| Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | +46 | $41 | $41 | 3 | 10-29 20:00 |
| (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | +40 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 11-01 01:52 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +40 | $32 | $32 | 2 | 11-02 00:27 |
| Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | +40 | $30 | $30 | 2 | 10-31 03:12 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 2 | 08-27 00:32 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | Yes | +20 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 09-13 13:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x98a8…a47b | No | +20 | $18 | $18 | 1 | 09-13 13:15 |
| Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | +20 | $19 | $19 | 1 | 10-10 16:37 |
| Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | +18 | $17 | $17 | 3 | 09-25 11:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x2a55…bf3d | No | +16 | $14 | $14 | 1 | 08-27 00:36 |
| Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | +15 | $14 | $14 | 2 | 09-24 21:24 |
| (anonymous) 0x3365…2a54 | No | +11 | $9 | $9 | 2 | 09-14 23:59 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +10 | $9 | $9 | 1 | 09-25 11:54 |
| (anonymous) 0x3ff7…8374 | Yes | +5 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 09-09 18:30 |
| (anonymous) 0x5cc4…cf8d | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-25 20:23 |
| (anonymous) 0x5eef…4fe1 | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-26 08:35 |
| Sniveling-Yogurt 0x6bdc…6fcd | No | +5 | $5 | $5 | 1 | 09-25 20:23 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 09-26 08:35 |
| Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | +3 | $0 | $0 | 1 | 10-28 09:14 |
| Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | +3 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-24 21:49 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-02 00:27:52 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 24¢ | $5 | 0xf92cf7… |
| 11-02 00:27:52 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 76¢ | $15 | 0xf92cf7… |
| 11-01 01:52:58 | (anonymous) 0xa3e2…fdf8 | Yes | BUY | 53 | 25¢ | $13 | 0x75b5e1… |
| 11-01 01:52:58 | (anonymous) 0x24bf…b12e | Yes | BUY | 40 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x75b5e1… |
| 11-01 01:52:58 | Cheery-Science 0x3089…92f6 | No | BUY | 134 | 75¢ | $101 | 0x75b5e1… |
| 11-01 01:52:58 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | BUY | 41 | 25¢ | $10 | 0x75b5e1… |
| 10-31 03:12:43 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0xc70f88… |
| 10-31 03:12:43 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0xc70f88… |
| 10-31 03:06:54 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | No | BUY | 20 | 74¢ | $15 | 0x2fbeb9… |
| 10-31 03:06:54 | (anonymous) 0xb7fb…6ab5 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 26¢ | $5 | 0x2fbeb9… |
| 10-29 20:00:39 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | No | SELL | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x184c22… |
| 10-29 20:00:39 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 10 | 89¢ | $9 | 0x184c22… |
| 10-29 19:55:09 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | No | SELL | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x40258b… |
| 10-29 19:55:09 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 20 | 89¢ | $18 | 0x40258b… |
| 10-29 19:47:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 30 | 12¢ | $4 | 0xc99977… |
| 10-29 19:47:18 | (anonymous) 0xe123…2fc1 | No | BUY | 30 | 88¢ | $26 | 0xc99977… |
| 10-28 18:10:05 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | No | BUY | 16 | 90¢ | $14 | 0x69012b… |
| 10-28 18:10:05 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 10¢ | $2 | 0x69012b… |
| 10-28 14:54:20 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8a397e… |
| 10-28 14:54:20 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x8a397e… |
| 10-28 09:14:44 | Grim-Garage 0xa815…9cbe | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x439c9b… |
| 10-28 09:14:44 | (anonymous) 0x4b3e…cfae | Yes | SELL | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x439c9b… |
| 10-24 21:49:39 | (anonymous) 0x4b3e…cfae | Yes | BUY | 3 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x65b39e… |
| 10-24 21:49:39 | Grown-Fence 0x4f1d…8de2 | No | BUY | 3 | 99¢ | $3 | 0x65b39e… |
| 10-15 21:27:26 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xaccbe3… |
| 10-15 21:27:26 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | SELL | 10 | 6¢ | $1 | 0xaccbe3… |
| 10-15 15:21:08 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 60 | 3¢ | $2 | 0xf71e96… |
| 10-15 15:21:08 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 60 | 97¢ | $58 | 0xf71e96… |
| 10-15 15:21:07 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 60 | 100¢ | $60 | 0x9800b8… |
| 10-15 15:21:07 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 60 | 0¢ | $0 | 0x9800b8… |
| 10-10 16:37:00 | Rowdy-Tenement 0x510f…a43c | Yes | BUY | 20 | 3¢ | $1 | 0x7ebdd3… |
| 10-10 16:37:00 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | No | BUY | 20 | 97¢ | $19 | 0x7ebdd3… |
| 10-07 14:36:31 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 77 | 4¢ | $3 | 0xae918a… |
| 10-07 14:36:31 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 4¢ | $0 | 0xae918a… |
| 10-07 14:36:31 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 132 | 4¢ | $5 | 0xae918a… |
| 10-07 14:36:31 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | SELL | 50 | 4¢ | $2 | 0xae918a… |
| 10-03 06:00:21 | Agitated-Mobster 0x30f6…004f | Yes | BUY | 15 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x7a3f43… |
| 10-03 06:00:21 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | SELL | 15 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x7a3f43… |
| 09-27 19:19:41 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3ff74a… |
| 09-27 19:19:41 | (anonymous) 0x6a5a…ac7d | Yes | SELL | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x3ff74a… |
| 09-26 08:36:09 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1c200b… |
| 09-26 08:36:09 | Necessary-Pentagon 0xfd55…f905 | Yes | SELL | 0 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x1c200b… |
| 09-26 08:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x8d004e… |
| 09-26 08:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 2 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x8d004e… |
| 09-26 08:35:54 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x0499fd… |
| 09-26 08:35:54 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 3 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x8d004e… |
| 09-26 08:35:54 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0x0499fd… |
| 09-26 08:35:39 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x30c3cd… |
| 09-26 08:35:39 | (anonymous) 0x5eef…4fe1 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x30c3cd… |
| 09-25 20:23:59 | (anonymous) 0x5cc4…cf8d | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x51d3cc… |
| 09-25 20:23:59 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x51d3cc… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x25558d… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xe5d3a9… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | Sniveling-Yogurt 0x6bdc…6fcd | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x2f60fb… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x25558d… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0xe5d3a9… |
| 09-25 20:23:57 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x2f60fb… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x368a1e… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x6e072b… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 4 | 5¢ | $0 | 0xa81b85… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 8 | 95¢ | $8 | 0x6e072b… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | (anonymous) 0x45e6…c078 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x368a1e… |
| 09-25 11:54:15 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 4 | 95¢ | $4 | 0xa81b85… |
| 09-24 21:24:38 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 16 | 5¢ | $1 | 0x201f74… |
| 09-24 21:24:38 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 16 | 95¢ | $15 | 0x201f74… |
| 09-24 21:24:30 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x6d3afe… |
| 09-24 21:24:30 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 5 | 95¢ | $5 | 0x6d3afe… |
| 09-24 07:37:56 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 10 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x507212… |
| 09-24 07:37:56 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $10 | 0x507212… |
| 09-24 07:37:56 | Miniature-Drive 0xcfff…673d | No | BUY | 10 | 95¢ | $9 | 0x23d2cc… |
| 09-24 07:37:56 | (anonymous) 0x40c7…b1e8 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x23d2cc… |
| 09-24 07:37:56 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 5¢ | $0 | 0x23d2cc… |
| 09-22 16:47:01 | (anonymous) 0xd666…0027 | Yes | SELL | 5 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x11f4d9… |
| 09-22 16:47:01 | Downright-Goddess 0x16da…05c0 | Yes | BUY | 11 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x11f4d9… |
| 09-22 16:47:01 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | Yes | SELL | 6 | 3¢ | $0 | 0x11f4d9… |
| 09-22 01:53:48 | Strong-Exit 0xfe2d…da35 | No | BUY | 5 | 99¢ | $5 | 0x944a66… |
| 09-22 01:53:48 | (anonymous) 0xd666…0027 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 1¢ | $0 | 0x944a66… |
| 09-17 00:47:09 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 20 | 95¢ | $19 | 0xdba422… |
| 09-17 00:47:09 | (anonymous) 0x6a5a…ac7d | Yes | BUY | 20 | 5¢ | $1 | 0xdba422… |
| 09-16 07:12:03 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x38f5e8… |
| 09-16 07:12:03 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 7¢ | $1 | 0x38f5e8… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 6 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x5d9404… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 8 | 84¢ | $7 | 0x332fc9… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x3365…2a54 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x5d9404… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 1 | 84¢ | $1 | 0xf217a3… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 1 | 16¢ | $0 | 0xf217a3… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x332fc9… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 0 | 84¢ | $0 | 0x7c6f56… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x0d3d…aa93 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0x7c6f56… |
| 09-14 23:59:49 | (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | BUY | 6 | 84¢ | $5 | 0x7c6f56… |
| 09-14 23:57:42 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0x45e69f… |
| 09-14 23:57:42 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 12 | 84¢ | $10 | 0x45e69f… |
| 09-14 21:40:22 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 12 | 18¢ | $2 | 0x23f76e… |
| 09-14 21:40:22 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 12 | 82¢ | $10 | 0x23f76e… |
| 09-14 03:15:54 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x216179… |
| 09-14 03:15:54 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | BUY | 20 | 16¢ | $3 | 0x216179… |
| 09-14 02:27:54 | Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | BUY | 5 | 84¢ | $4 | 0xdc0349… |
| 09-14 02:27:54 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 16¢ | $1 | 0xdc0349… |
| 09-13 13:15:43 | (anonymous) 0xf439…fd4a | Yes | SELL | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xb044a7… |
| 09-13 13:15:43 | (anonymous) 0xeace…38b9 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 8¢ | $2 | 0xb044a7… |