Dull-Smith — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$478

Unrealized P&L

-$292

Hit rate

27.3%

Resolved

Trades

1,562

lifetime

Volume

$115.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$74

Open exposure

$561

6 positions

First seen

2026-02-19

last 07-21 18:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

86% 0% $-506

Other

14% 100% +$28

Crypto

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

81 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?	Yes	+777	$123	24¢	$183	+$59	07-13 14:25
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	+890	$165	19¢	$169	+$4	07-17 11:25
Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	+1,069	$125	15¢	$160	+$36	07-21 18:38
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	+2,500	$477	1¢	$31	$-446	07-19 17:02
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay	Yes	+154	$20	12¢	$18	$-2	07-15 11:30
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	+0	$-56	68¢	$0	+$56	06-26 09:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	12	$11.8K	8,397	8,397	+0	open	—	04-01 15:11
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	13	$10.8K	6,740	6,740	+0	open	—	03-23 11:45
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	49	$6.8K	4,929	4,924	+5	open	—	06-17 05:34
us x iran ceasefire by march 15	5	$6.1K	3,483	3,483	+0	open	—	03-14 09:12
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 17 20260615191216216	30	$5.0K	5,151	5,151	+0	open	—	06-17 17:16
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	41	$3.1K	5,016	4,216	+800	open	—	06-17 12:33
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	26	$2.9K	2,762	2,962	-200	open	—	06-21 12:55
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	23	$2.8K	3,876	3,876	+0	open	—	07-13 14:16
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	36	$2.6K	3,372	4,278	-906	open	—	04-10 21:11
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	29	$2.5K	3,027	3,347	-319	open	—	05-08 18:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	17	$2.3K	5,510	3,010	+2,500	open	—	07-19 17:02
israel military action against yemen by april 15 2026	75	$2.1K	1,407	2,041	-634	open	—	04-07 23:29
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	9	$1.9K	1,122	1,122	+0	open	—	07-13 20:36
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	5	$1.8K	3,295	2,625	+670	open	—	02-28 04:49
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by july 15	13	$1.7K	3,735	3,735	+0	open	—	07-02 06:24
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	7	$1.7K	981	981	+0	open	—	06-01 10:32
will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	36	$1.7K	1,176	1,176	+0	open	—	07-18 19:56
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	2	$1.5K	1,669	0	+1,669	open	—	03-02 13:46
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	34	$1.5K	1,688	1,688	+0	open	—	06-17 02:37
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	7	$1.5K	800	800	+0	open	—	07-11 13:41
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	33	$1.4K	2,184	1,849	+336	open	—	05-22 15:06
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	8	$1.4K	1,185	1,185	+0	open	—	06-08 10:20
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	21	$1.3K	1,373	1,373	+0	open	—	07-01 23:57
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	31	$1.3K	6,381	4,881	+1,500	open	—	07-14 18:51
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	12	$1.2K	1,040	1,040	+0	open	—	06-26 09:00
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	2	$1.1K	596	596	+0	open	—	02-27 21:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	6	$1.1K	500	1,000	-500	open	—	06-09 13:01
israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	16	$997	1,421	0	+1,421	open	—	07-20 12:35
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	8	$989	1,367	1,367	+0	open	—	07-01 18:41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$956	1,048	1,048	+0	open	—	04-17 16:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 02:38:30	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	SELL	600	0¢	$1	0xf07e40…
07-22 02:37:37	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	SELL	1,874	0¢	$4	0x510854…
07-21 18:38:30	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	97	18¢	$17	0xbc8f7d…
07-21 18:12:43	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	56	18¢	$10	0x85281a…
07-21 16:10:54	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	18¢	$2	0xbae0c1…
07-21 15:43:51	Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	SELL	132	18¢	$24	0x575ef1…
07-21 11:45:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	50	64¢	$32	0x8d1a8a…
07-21 10:40:25	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	700	2¢	$10	0x811f29…
07-21 10:21:39	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	187	9¢	$17	0x92ac77…
07-21 10:21:39	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x713291…
07-20 18:52:45	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0xb968d1…
07-20 18:04:39	iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	Yes	BUY	526	6¢	$30	0xc4bcd1…
07-20 18:04:27	iran invades kuwait by july 31 20260720015031545	Yes	BUY	918	5¢	$50	0x9597ff…
07-20 17:43:01	iran full airspace closure by july 24	Yes	BUY	450	11¢	$50	0x2bb38f…
07-20 17:19:36	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	330	3¢	$10	0xcb6113…
07-20 17:02:18	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	1	17¢	$0	0x2ed544…
07-20 14:49:54	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	SELL	94	60¢	$56	0x8ce5d4…
07-20 13:28:57	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	400	18¢	$72	0x19e671…
07-20 13:07:04	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	210	5¢	$10	0x82eb7b…
07-20 12:35:09	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x3d0e83…
07-20 10:22:43	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by august 31 20260720003950635	Yes	BUY	894	6¢	$50	0xf28b56…
07-20 10:22:16	will mojtaba khamenei leave iran by july 31 20260720003505492	Yes	BUY	534	2¢	$10	0xb5b5c6…
07-20 08:18:06	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	89	6¢	$5	0x1129f2…
07-20 08:17:21	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x13c83d…
07-20 08:17:18	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xfce096…
07-20 08:17:18	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x8be236…
07-20 08:17:04	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x196f6c…
07-20 08:17:03	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x34404d…
07-20 08:12:33	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xb80adc…
07-20 08:12:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xed1643…
07-20 08:12:31	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x7670de…
07-20 08:12:30	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xde5068…
07-20 08:12:28	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0xc690e2…
07-20 08:07:03	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x086fcc…
07-20 08:07:03	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x0797db…
07-20 08:07:01	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0xe92371…
07-20 08:07:00	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	7	6¢	$0	0x50243a…
07-20 08:06:58	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	6	6¢	$0	0x3aefdf…
07-20 08:06:07	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	78	3¢	$3	0xae10a6…
07-20 07:38:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 19 20260718000915872	Yes	SELL	2,096	0¢	$2	0x7add81…
07-20 00:32:16	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xb98693…
07-20 00:32:16	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x3ebb78…
07-20 00:30:43	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	Yes	SELL	200	4¢	$8	0x0bb539…
07-19 23:55:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	SELL	109	88¢	$96	0x7105b3…
07-19 18:09:49	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 19 20260718000915872	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x078c5f…
07-19 17:44:24	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 19 20260718000915872	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x5672f8…
07-19 17:11:36	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 21 20260718000915873	Yes	BUY	600	5¢	$30	0x084283…
07-19 17:11:28	will the us announce an iran ceasefire by july 19 20260718000915872	Yes	BUY	2,086	1¢	$30	0xf29035…
07-19 17:02:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2,500	1¢	$30	0xbe0a88…
07-19 16:58:55	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 24	Yes	SELL	2,176	7¢	$155	0x11dd55…
07-19 12:39:24	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	Yes	BUY	160	50¢	$80	0xd2b5b7…
07-19 12:39:24	iran successfully targets shipping on july 19	Yes	BUY	40	50¢	$20	0x491bbe…
07-19 10:11:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	SELL	150	17¢	$25	0x793230…
07-19 10:01:30	iran full airspace closure by july 21	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0xc5cd57…
07-19 10:00:06	iran military action against a gulf state on july 22 20260708212322947	Yes	BUY	42	59¢	$25	0x43cb84…
07-19 09:11:15	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	SELL	52	85¢	$44	0xa832a2…
07-19 09:03:09	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	SELL	148	85¢	$126	0x091981…
07-19 08:15:06	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	SELL	131	28¢	$37	0xdffa55…
07-19 08:13:54	israel closes its airspace by august 31 389	No	BUY	50	66¢	$33	0x4a6ef9…
07-19 06:52:46	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	25	16¢	$4	0xf6c3bd…
07-19 06:45:54	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	500	16¢	$80	0xd81c8e…
07-19 06:42:21	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0xaf7bfe…
07-19 06:35:12	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	69	16¢	$11	0x58548a…
07-18 19:56:58	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	SELL	327	60¢	$196	0xd962b3…
07-18 19:56:58	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	SELL	500	60¢	$300	0x0e6439…
07-18 19:56:52	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	SELL	45	62¢	$28	0x92a625…
07-18 19:22:34	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by july 31	Yes	BUY	187	11¢	$20	0x05e228…
07-18 08:56:40	iran military action against a gulf state on july 21 20260708212322946	Yes	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0xa2475a…
07-18 03:40:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	142	40¢	$57	0x56cb20…
07-18 03:40:22	iran military action against a gulf state on july 23 20260708212322948	Yes	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0x3cacd7…
07-18 00:12:36	iran military action against a gulf state on july 18 20260708212322943	Yes	SELL	60	90¢	$54	0x575fb2…
07-17 20:31:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	45	45¢	$20	0x1dea86…
07-17 19:32:40	iran successfully targets shipping on july 17	Yes	SELL	120	92¢	$110	0xc6aa7a…
07-17 19:13:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	BUY	852	2¢	$15	0xf1df10…
07-17 11:25:52	Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Yes	BUY	600	15¢	$90	0xa06608…
07-17 09:05:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	SELL	100	90¢	$90	0xa7406c…
07-17 07:58:09	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	300	61¢	$183	0xc06f92…
07-17 07:32:10	iran successfully targets shipping on july 16	Yes	SELL	200	5¢	$10	0xa4f5f7…
07-17 04:05:12	iran military action against a gulf state on july 20 20260708212322945	Yes	BUY	64	32¢	$20	0x5cd606…
07-17 00:30:58	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	SELL	130	90¢	$117	0x7e449e…
07-16 22:00:28	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0x23b9e9…
07-16 21:16:50	iran military action against a gulf state on july 17 20260708212322942	Yes	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xc982b8…
07-16 19:21:22	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by august 15 881 867	Yes	BUY	131	22¢	$29	0x8f12f5…
07-16 19:04:25	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	56	48¢	$27	0xe32a7e…
07-16 19:03:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	94	48¢	$45	0xf36295…
07-16 17:02:59	bab el mandeb strait effectively closed by august 31	Yes	BUY	556	18¢	$100	0x2007df…
07-16 16:50:29	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	SELL	333	52¢	$172	0xf1617c…
07-16 16:29:10	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	81	50¢	$41	0xa0acaf…
07-16 16:28:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x57d8b5…
07-16 16:28:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$5	0x09d9ad…
07-16 16:20:17	iran military action against a gulf state on july 16 20260708212322941	Yes	BUY	170	61¢	$103	0xf2499c…
07-16 14:54:02	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	298	45¢	$135	0xe3b2c5…
07-16 14:53:52	iran full airspace closure by july 31 20260625195254150	Yes	SELL	400	27¢	$108	0x115afe…
07-16 14:47:38	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	Yes	SELL	1,711	3¢	$48	0xb3874c…
07-16 12:12:35	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	700	8¢	$55	0x02f29c…
07-16 08:48:38	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	2,149	2¢	$50	0x89773d…
07-16 08:22:26	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	100	70¢	$70	0x3a9fc2…
07-16 08:20:31	will trump meet with benjamin netanyahu in july 2026 20260626153701914	Yes	BUY	53	75¢	$40	0xe273a0…
07-16 05:56:05	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	325	89¢	$289	0x0b3b9b…
07-16 04:45:13	iran military action against a gulf state on july 19 20260708212322944	Yes	BUY	200	45¢	$90	0xc1ee65…