Raw-Climate — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.59K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

80.2%

Resolved

4,111

Trades

6,504

lifetime

Volume

$65.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-13

last 10-26 12:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 101 days

Categories

Crypto

84% 86% +$2,872

Other

8% 89% -$130

Politics

8% 25% -$140

Sports

0% 33% -$9

Pop-Culture

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 268 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$3.1K	3,094	3,094	+0	Down	+$3,033	04-29 12:21
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	5	$1.2K	694	1,006	-311	No	-$72	05-18 03:57
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	15	$958	921	921	+0	No	-$10	05-17 12:18
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	4	$634	536	536	+0	No	-$22	05-23 13:45
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	5	$575	444	444	+0	Yes	-$44	05-18 09:40
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$522	384	384	+0	open	—	05-18 09:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$502	295	295	+0	No	-$18	05-23 14:52
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	4	$464	274	274	+0	Yes	-$1	05-17 22:07
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	9	$433	360	360	+0	No	-$14	05-06 05:50
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	7	$390	392	392	+0	No	-$33	05-23 14:47
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	3	$383	240	240	+0	No	-$15	05-06 02:13
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	3	$379	240	240	+0	No	+$0	05-18 09:39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	3	$367	240	240	+0	No	-$17	05-06 09:00
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	2	$341	344	344	+0	open	—	05-23 15:16
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	2	$325	321	321	+0	Yes	+$3	05-17 09:56
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	2	$313	248	248	+0	No	-$14	05-16 14:19
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	2	$282	327	327	+0	No	-$7	05-17 20:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET	71	$276	554	0	+554	Up	-$14	08-20 14:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	4	$245	307	307	+0	Yes	-$3	05-23 15:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 17:05 UTC	2	$214	110	110	+0	Down	+$3	10-13 17:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 13:55 UTC	50	$197	409	0	+409	Down	-$2	08-20 13:58
ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-13 11:30 UTC	2	$178	111	76	+35	Up	-$2	10-13 11:34
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$172	120	120	+0	Yes	-$6	05-06 02:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 14:10 UTC	56	$164	335	0	+335	Up	+$4	08-20 14:14
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	2	$163	387	387	+0	No	+$1	05-23 11:44
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$156	240	240	+0	No	-$2	05-06 09:03
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4AM ET	3	$154	77	77	+0	Down	+$1	04-29 10:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6AM ET	3	$153	77	77	+0	Up	+$1	05-23 11:22
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 13:45 UTC	40	$147	297	0	+297	Down	+$3	08-20 13:47
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	2	$128	104	104	+0	open	—	06-24 09:40

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 12:47:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x08bfa0…
10-26 12:47:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xb3ee1f…
10-26 12:44:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xbcc5a9…
10-26 12:44:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0xa79f8a…
10-26 12:34:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xb4d465…
10-26 12:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x4fb431…
10-26 12:24:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	83¢	$3	0xc77245…
10-26 12:24:23	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x5e2792…
10-26 12:13:23	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x76a5aa…
10-26 11:58:27	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xf87770…
10-26 11:57:36	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	78¢	$8	0xd3de18…
10-26 11:57:36	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x10aee8…
10-26 11:27:57	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x151670…
10-26 11:03:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x40f1c0…
10-26 10:08:06	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET	Down	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0xd25152…
10-26 09:43:39	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x116362…
10-26 09:43:17	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xf26faa…
10-26 09:23:06	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x6fa775…
10-26 09:23:03	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Down	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x58c56a…
10-26 08:32:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xaf707b…
10-26 08:32:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0x193ae2…
10-26 08:22:45	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x2bf57e…
10-26 08:22:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0x5d65e7…
10-26 08:12:41	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Down	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xefeadf…
10-26 07:52:39	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	7	80¢	$6	0x889772…
10-26 07:52:33	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x09f341…
10-26 07:32:33	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0x06856e…
10-26 07:24:06	XRP Up or Down - October 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x20711c…
10-26 07:22:50	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x775459…
10-26 07:08:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 26, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xf8e6c5…
10-24 14:43:20	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb61fe9…
10-24 14:38:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x82efd0…
10-24 14:38:14	Solana Up or Down - October 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0x7adbfd…
10-24 14:37:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x122b9e…
10-24 13:23:33	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x98d1f9…
10-24 13:13:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 24, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0x7f3f5a…
10-24 12:33:27	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xfcfd38…
10-24 12:27:57	XRP Up or Down - October 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x4b5d7f…
10-24 12:23:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x101ccb…
10-23 13:53:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xd9d2de…
10-23 13:53:39	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0x624afc…
10-23 13:53:09	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Up	BUY	5	69¢	$3	0x3d3f60…
10-23 13:48:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xa1d8fd…
10-23 13:47:48	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Up	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xad0795…
10-23 13:33:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$4	0xc01769…
10-23 13:33:36	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x1d3510…
10-23 13:33:14	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0x59706c…
10-23 13:32:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	64¢	$5	0x733dfa…
10-23 13:18:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xe20727…
10-23 12:38:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x04a0e6…
10-23 12:28:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x9eccd1…
10-23 12:22:51	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xe2724c…
10-23 11:33:30	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	63¢	$5	0x8decd2…
10-23 11:28:32	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	70¢	$4	0x89f55b…
10-23 11:08:41	XRP Up or Down - October 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xfaa79b…
10-23 11:07:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0xc87c0b…
10-23 11:07:53	Solana Up or Down - October 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x2dc119…
10-21 10:57:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0xaeea6e…
10-21 10:48:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0x89ccd7…
10-21 10:28:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Up	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xbaddac…
10-21 08:57:47	ETH Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-21 08:55 UTC	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x8ec968…
10-21 08:29:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xc18f1b…
10-21 08:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xeb544e…
10-21 08:28:39	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	8	54¢	$4	0x264aae…
10-21 08:18:59	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9ae3ed…
10-21 08:14:08	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x9e4734…
10-21 08:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xdcf552…
10-21 08:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xa9f7a5…
10-21 08:08:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xca6c98…
10-21 08:04:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x15d8e9…
10-21 07:53:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8a1f7b…
10-21 07:49:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x9fa8b0…
10-21 07:44:14	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xeb84e6…
10-21 07:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe47ea3…
10-21 07:37:36	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	46	54¢	$25	0xbd8af8…
10-21 07:34:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xab7a0e…
10-21 07:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x6b3633…
10-21 07:19:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xf4e901…
10-21 07:09:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x25a069…
10-21 07:04:02	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x0da058…
10-21 07:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xb1b45f…
10-21 06:59:11	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xd43037…
10-21 06:49:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xe75ebb…
10-21 06:49:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x2833aa…
10-21 06:44:09	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x20cde3…
10-21 06:39:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x576bd2…
10-21 06:24:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x4b22b5…
10-21 06:19:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8ed4e1…
10-21 06:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x329608…
10-21 06:13:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xe3a34e…
10-21 06:04:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xd39ce7…
10-21 05:59:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0xc1324b…
10-21 05:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x7c89b3…
10-21 05:33:57	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x122c8a…
10-21 05:19:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x1b10e8…
10-21 05:09:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x76ba65…
10-21 04:49:05	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x367a48…
10-21 04:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xe85cc0…
10-21 04:34:15	Ethereum Up or Down - October 21, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x7ca218…
10-21 04:29:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x8e971a…