Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

57.6%

Resolved

Trades

108

lifetime

Volume

$169

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

6 positions

First seen

2026-07-21

last 11-08 05:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 60 days

Categories

Other

86% 56% -$1

Politics

13% 67% +$5

Tech

2% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (6) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	+3	$1	62¢	$2	+$1	11-06 11:57
Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	+2	$1	56¢	$1	+$0	11-03 14:14
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	+2	$1	50¢	$1	+$0	11-08 05:10
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	+1	$1	79¢	$1	+$0	11-07 20:47
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	+2	$1	46¢	$1	$0	11-06 20:19
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	+4	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	11-07 12:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 05:10:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x375c87…
11-07 20:47:43	Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x4e7009…
11-07 12:33:25	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe7ee0c…
11-06 20:19:45	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 7 to November 9, 2026?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x41e2da…
11-06 11:57:52	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x9df716…
11-06 02:46:19	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 6?	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xbb4981…
11-05 18:39:48	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3e88ad…
11-05 10:36:22	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x9c5370…
11-05 02:33:49	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x6c28ca…
11-04 06:15:09	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1e3854…
11-03 22:15:03	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xd63abc…
11-03 14:14:57	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x8f7484…
11-03 06:14:00	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf7c043…
10-30 01:53:03	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 4?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb5e377…
10-24 15:07:44	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x77655f…
10-24 06:59:03	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x2e8c06…
10-21 07:46:23	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x494472…
10-21 07:46:18	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xcfd146…
10-17 10:09:36	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe0303c…
10-17 02:05:50	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x09c9b7…
10-16 17:50:18	Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the October decision?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x6565c0…
10-16 08:22:57	will rklb reach 58 by october 12 2026	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x4069be…
10-16 00:22:45	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xebd807…
10-15 16:18:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x6be286…
10-12 20:15:44	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xacb599…
10-12 20:15:41	Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 68% to 69%?	Yes	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0xa6271b…
10-10 11:27:30	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xeafb85…
10-08 22:35:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x5cf3fa…
10-08 14:09:00	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x2703e5…
10-08 06:00:34	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xdba213…
10-07 21:58:10	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xfbf6ef…
10-07 01:02:53	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x39a062…
10-02 22:44:39	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 28-October 4?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0xad362c…
10-02 14:26:45	Will the next Claude Haiku (4.6+) model be released by October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x6d4ce2…
10-02 05:58:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xafcb45…
09-30 20:07:50	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x320adc…
09-30 00:02:26	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xc63d5f…
09-26 13:50:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x218be5…
09-26 05:49:54	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x383c2b…
09-25 18:18:47	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xe337c9…
09-25 10:18:15	Will Elon tweet 800-839 times in September 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x3efa74…
09-25 02:17:48	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?	No	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x175fa6…
09-24 11:40:02	Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x7e9acf…
09-24 03:39:10	Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x5c227b…
09-22 19:36:58	will googl reach 360 by september 21 2026 from september 22	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x5901a9…
09-21 23:36:43	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $248 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0xf9d1ea…
09-19 11:07:09	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xffdfdd…
09-19 03:06:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xbd54c9…
09-18 17:25:04	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x5f43dd…
09-18 08:44:28	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	28¢	$2	0xda3b8f…
09-17 21:51:45	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x18b04e…
09-17 21:45:55	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xf44e42…
09-17 13:16:18	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0xf1dd89…
09-17 05:14:18	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x8e6fff…
09-15 09:10:07	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x931167…
09-14 22:22:48	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x623a93…
09-14 14:18:13	Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0xbb484e…
09-14 06:18:01	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of September 14 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xc31cf1…
09-13 22:16:57	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $177.50 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc3af4a…
09-13 13:52:21	Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x0facfe…
09-13 04:37:30	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0xe66b5f…
09-12 14:42:13	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	3	78¢	$2	0x745272…
09-09 23:42:58	Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x7bd2ac…
09-09 03:26:19	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x271f37…
09-08 18:42:57	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	No	BUY	4	56¢	$2	0x591c2e…
09-08 09:14:13	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0xb3524c…
09-08 00:12:09	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x8ae10b…
09-07 09:43:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0xd699f6…
09-04 01:52:43	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in August?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xdb5f00…
09-03 16:14:22	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xc5edfd…
09-01 18:04:52	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x3793c8…
09-01 09:57:49	Will Andy Burnham say "King" during the next PMQ?	Yes	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0x54f303…
09-01 01:57:25	will mu dip to 900 by august 31 2026	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x31fdf6…
09-01 01:57:16	Will Andy Burnham say "Starmer" during the next PMQ?	No	BUY	3	73¢	$2	0xc134ba…
08-29 04:05:48	will abnb dip to 188 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x4188ad…
08-23 06:30:45	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 22 to August 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe90d3f…
08-22 10:12:28	Will Meta be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x12b372…
08-21 23:11:03	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in June 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0xa18cd0…
08-20 14:43:31	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	No	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x3a3bb5…
08-19 02:07:25	will wti reach 90 in august 2026	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0x889cc5…
08-16 00:50:22	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x5f0369…
08-15 15:56:10	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xd2d2a7…
08-15 07:24:54	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	No	BUY	3	76¢	$2	0x19a1f3…
08-13 22:19:52	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in July?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xe3af7e…
08-13 14:18:12	will xauusd reach 4450 by august 10 2026	Yes	BUY	8	24¢	$2	0x4ff710…
08-13 06:15:27	spx up or down on august 13 2026	Down	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x908fe1…
08-12 21:15:34	will trump say kamala during remarks in new york 20260811183234697	No	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x1a23c6…
08-12 13:02:30	spy up or down on august 12 2026	Up	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x2feacb…
08-12 04:48:28	will trump say zohran or mamdani during remarks in new york 20260811183234694	Yes	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x50a7f7…
08-12 04:48:13	will xauusd reach 4500 by august 10 2026	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0xd558e5…
08-11 20:38:40	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x29c008…
08-11 12:00:06	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe63c8d…
07-30 13:58:32	will trump say hell 3 times during cabinet meeting 20260727172357440	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0x7558fb…
07-28 19:06:59	will canada or canadian be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260727161921254	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x665afd…
07-28 02:44:55	will hood reach 100 by july 27 2026	No	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x793ba6…
07-27 15:31:07	sono quarterly earnings nongaap eps 07 29 2026 0pt2	No	BUY	3	41¢	$1	0xa20b97…
07-27 01:04:42	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?	No	BUY	3	42¢	$1	0xe19182…
07-26 13:04:15	Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xcabb1b…
07-26 01:03:39	will trump say joe or biden 12 times during michigan remarks 20260724162420352	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0x4fd8b5…
07-25 13:03:27	New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?	Yes	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0xea880f…

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will canada or canadian be said during the next episode of the all in podcast 20260727161921254	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	07-28 19:06
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	08-16 00:50
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-17 21:45
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-08 18:42
Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in August?	2	$2	5	+5	No	-$1	09-25 02:17
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	07-25 01:03
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 4	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	09-08 00:12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-17 13:16
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of October 19 2026?	2	$2	4	+4	No	+$0	10-21 07:46
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-09 03:26
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-18 08:44
will googl reach 360 by september 21 2026 from september 22	1	$2	4	+4	No	-$2	09-22 19:36
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-18 17:25
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-17 21:51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	-$2	09-14 22:22
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-13 04:37
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	1	$2	5	+5	No	-$2	09-17 05:14
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-09 23:42
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 7 to September 9, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	+$2	09-08 09:14
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-19 11:07
Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $102.50 Week of September 14 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-14 06:18
Will Holtec Nuclear's market cap be between $9B and $10B at market close on IPO day?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-14 14:18
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	-$2	09-13 13:52
will wti reach 90 in august 2026	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-19 02:07
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 10 to August 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-11 12:00
will trump say kamala during remarks in new york 20260811183234697	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-12 21:15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-20 14:43
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-24 03:39
will mu dip to 900 by august 31 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-01 01:57
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	1	$2	8	+8	Yes	+$6	09-07 09:43