Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$540

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

4.9%

Resolved

483

Trades

1,566

lifetime

Volume

$21.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-06-15

last 10-30 02:38

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 94 days

Categories

Other

79% 6% -$500

Politics

10% 0% -$7

Tech

8% 0% -$27

Crypto

1% 93% -$4

Sports

1% 0% -$2

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

73 active days in 12wk • peak 54 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Dune: Messiah get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes		+0	$0	11¢	$0	$0	10-07 15:57

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	26	$826	631	631	+0	open	—	09-19 14:14
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	18	$690	428	428	+0	open	—	09-16 18:02
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?	16	$669	368	368	+0	No	-$1	09-17 18:41
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	12	$372	300	300	+0	No	-$2	09-21 15:28
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	10	$364	207	207	+0	open	—	09-21 00:50
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	14	$320	320	320	+0	open	—	09-13 12:42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	12	$287	295	295	+0	Yes	-$2	08-07 23:02
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	6	$271	150	150	+0	open	—	08-26 13:45
tesla and spacex merger officially announced by september 30	12	$190	120	120	+0	No	$0	08-14 20:13
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	6	$186	150	150	+0	Yes	-$1	09-17 14:51
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$185	100	100	+0	open	—	09-20 13:34
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	6	$183	140	140	+0	Yes	-$1	09-02 23:34
Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?	4	$181	100	100	+0	open	—	09-17 10:02
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18?	7	$153	150	150	+0	No	-$4	06-17 23:50
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	6	$137	120	120	+0	open	—	09-21 15:40
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 20?	7	$136	130	130	+0	Yes	-$1	06-19 21:09
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 22?	5	$123	100	100	+0	Yes	-$3	06-22 07:03
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22?	6	$118	109	109	+0	Yes	-$9	06-21 21:14
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17?	4	$118	100	100	+0	Yes	$0	06-17 00:19
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23?	8	$116	180	180	+0	No	-$9	06-23 05:09
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on June 24?	5	$115	100	100	+0	Yes	-$4	06-24 08:39
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 16?	6	$112	109	109	+0	No	$0	06-16 10:58
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 24?	5	$110	100	100	+0	Yes	-$3	06-24 10:09
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	4	$108	100	100	+0	open	—	08-10 16:56
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	6	$103	150	150	+0	open	—	08-08 13:25
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 18?	7	$102	106	106	+0	No	$0	06-18 06:03
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	4	$99	100	100	+0	No	-$1	09-15 14:33
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 22?	4	$98	100	100	+0	No	$0	06-22 04:51
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	4	$98	100	100	+0	Yes	-$2	08-31 22:58
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	4	$98	100	100	+0	open	—	09-16 10:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 02:38:16	Will Cryocells play for Leviatán Esports in 2027?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0xd7389b…
10-30 02:37:54	Will Cryocells play for Leviatán Esports in 2027?	No	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x25a92a…
10-29 12:12:05	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	50	75¢	$38	0xc43acb…
10-29 12:12:02	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2027 meeting?	No	BUY	50	76¢	$38	0xa6d06d…
10-29 03:52:43	Gemini Carbon released by November 2, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe071a1…
10-29 03:52:41	Gemini Carbon released by November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2579d4…
10-28 17:19:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	91¢	$18	0x0f04f0…
10-28 17:19:44	Will Flávio Bolsonaro return to Brazil by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	93¢	$19	0x9ef92d…
10-28 17:06:26	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0x21c1d6…
10-28 17:06:23	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xc0842a…
10-28 14:04:28	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0x762293…
10-28 13:31:40	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-06 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0xf009ee…
10-24 05:49:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x41652a…
10-24 05:44:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa55dad…
10-24 05:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x56d82a…
10-24 04:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x258386…
10-24 04:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xff12b4…
10-24 02:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc73cf4…
10-24 01:34:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x7f978d…
10-24 01:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xf8112c…
10-24 01:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xd9fdd7…
10-24 00:54:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0xc5dc7b…
10-24 00:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xf13dc8…
10-23 22:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x7f237c…
10-23 21:09:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x333776…
10-23 20:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdc1716…
10-23 20:44:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb92cc0…
10-23 19:54:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xf71df5…
10-23 19:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x6d3882…
10-23 19:29:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x845f2c…
10-23 19:03:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xb51676…
10-23 18:34:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x3e85f2…
10-23 18:28:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2479cb…
10-23 18:08:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xa42230…
10-23 17:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Up	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xee4d30…
10-23 16:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xfe76f4…
10-23 16:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x6ffa23…
10-23 16:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x40419a…
10-23 16:29:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xb7c7de…
10-23 16:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x2cae76…
10-23 15:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	93¢	$2	0xf70d50…
10-23 15:34:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x4e363c…
10-23 15:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	85¢	$2	0x04f07c…
10-23 15:24:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x874550…
10-23 15:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xf2a362…
10-23 15:09:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xfe3143…
10-23 14:49:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xecd660…
10-23 14:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0x1171ad…
10-23 14:08:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x3364ee…
10-23 14:04:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0xdb5c40…
10-23 13:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	92¢	$2	0x6e3e0b…
10-23 13:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x2c68f7…
10-23 13:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x77cc15…
10-23 13:19:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0xcb3db5…
10-23 12:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x744c39…
10-23 12:49:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0xec02ee…
10-23 12:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	90¢	$2	0x6391ee…
10-23 12:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xd0db4b…
10-23 12:23:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x0326fc…
10-23 12:13:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7a2084…
10-23 11:58:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x5d2d1c…
10-23 11:48:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET	Up	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x738e08…
10-23 11:36:57	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	20	92¢	$18	0x2b0068…
10-23 11:36:47	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xaa3239…
10-23 11:33:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xe5e7ae…
10-23 10:39:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0x689f71…
10-23 10:19:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xab8836…
10-23 09:53:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xcb35a6…
10-23 09:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0x676598…
10-23 09:33:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Up	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x072d85…
10-23 09:04:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0x1890f1…
10-23 08:49:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	98¢	$3	0x7b7439…
10-23 08:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa92345…
10-23 08:38:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	94¢	$3	0xe90707…
10-23 08:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	95¢	$3	0x15e531…
10-23 00:18:15	Will the Republican Party win the MI-05 House seat?	Yes	SELL	20	93¢	$19	0x657ea8…
10-23 00:18:06	Will the Republican Party win the MI-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x1d2e47…
10-22 17:37:36	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0x4ff62f…
10-22 17:37:35	Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa70b20…
10-21 11:13:36	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	No	SELL	50	74¢	$37	0x14ef37…
10-21 11:13:35	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 0%-3%?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x96716d…
10-20 18:03:32	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	SELL	50	68¢	$34	0x68649b…
10-20 18:03:30	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	No	BUY	50	89¢	$44	0xc6bf5e…
10-19 23:05:00	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xce11fe…
10-19 20:54:11	Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	90¢	$45	0x47baf6…
10-19 15:31:03	Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xb1fcd3…
10-19 15:31:02	Will the Democratic Party win the IL-04 House seat?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2fc8ff…
10-19 12:58:17	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	71¢	$14	0x0d794e…
10-19 12:49:59	Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x582f26…
10-17 19:58:15	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	No	SELL	50	93¢	$47	0xa07114…
10-17 19:58:12	Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 4.5% before 2027?	No	BUY	50	94¢	$47	0x3e7ab9…
10-16 18:13:45	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	SELL	50	89¢	$44	0xb5a13b…
10-16 18:13:44	Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	No	BUY	50	91¢	$45	0x1c3532…
10-15 18:25:01	Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x48ddfc…
10-15 18:24:59	Will Christopher Nolan win Best Director at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0xb73e31…
10-15 16:29:19	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-17 House seat?	No	SELL	20	4¢	$1	0x9482f5…
10-15 16:29:17	Will the Democratic Party win the PA-17 House seat?	No	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2fc50e…
10-15 06:13:20	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	5¢	$2	0xe8edf8…
10-15 06:13:19	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x12a0a6…
10-15 05:59:26	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on October 16?	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0x651487…