Insubstantial-Phenomenon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$426

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$8.13K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$189

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-30

last 07-26 06:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

87% 50% $-426

Politics

13% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

5 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	2	$904	469	469	+0	open	—	05-06 07:18
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$896	458	458	+0	open	—	05-14 03:34
Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	2	$892	452	452	+0	open	—	04-17 04:25
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?	3	$882	450	450	+0	open	—	05-15 03:58
es2 dep mir 2026 04 20 spread away 1pt5	1	$459	477	0	+477	open	—	04-20 05:14
Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	1	$452	470	0	+470	Matsumoto Yamaga FC	$-452	05-06 07:21
Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-1.5)	1	$449	483	0	+483	open	—	05-14 03:38
chi hai qin 2026 04 17 spread away 2pt5	1	$447	460	0	+460	open	—	04-17 04:28
Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)	1	$440	463	0	+463	open	—	05-15 04:02
Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	1	$417	443	0	+443	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	+$26	05-13 04:37
Spread: SD Huesca (-1.5)	3	$404	439	0	+439	open	—	05-18 04:44
bra san cre 2026 04 02 spread away 2pt5	1	$299	304	0	+304	open	—	04-02 05:37
bra2 csc vln 2026 04 01 csc	1	$295	299	0	+299	open	—	04-01 03:25
fif egy esp 2026 03 30 egy	1	$280	295	0	+295	open	—	03-30 04:45
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	4	$179	1,052	1,052	+0	open	—	06-02 06:15
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	6	$133	1,026	1,026	+0	open	—	06-03 08:43
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	3	$121	967	967	+0	open	—	07-26 06:41
Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	2	$58	1,016	0	+1,016	open	—	06-02 06:49
Spread: Israel (-2.5)	2	$51	1,041	0	+1,041	open	—	06-03 09:03
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	3	$47	380	380	+0	open	—	06-30 08:40
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	2	$22	21	21	+0	open	—	05-24 03:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-26 06:41:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	967	6¢	$60	0xfef3ec…
07-26 05:55:42	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	559	6¢	$35	0xcae0a8…
07-26 05:55:40	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	408	6¢	$26	0xcfc7a7…
06-30 08:40:25	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	380	6¢	$24	0x99c9ba…
06-30 08:15:53	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	195	6¢	$12	0xe27618…
06-30 08:15:52	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	6¢	$11	0x8b7027…
06-03 09:03:23	Spread: Israel (-2.5)	Israel	BUY	503	5¢	$25	0x45b607…
06-03 09:03:08	Spread: Israel (-2.5)	Israel	BUY	538	5¢	$26	0x7d8bc6…
06-03 08:43:05	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	SELL	38	6¢	$2	0x420178…
06-03 08:25:46	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	SELL	500	6¢	$30	0x5583d9…
06-03 08:25:20	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0x16903d…
06-03 08:25:02	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	SELL	467	6¢	$28	0x302105…
06-03 07:34:07	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	BUY	498	7¢	$35	0x70881e…
06-03 07:33:49	Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?	Yes	BUY	528	7¢	$37	0xdf37ad…
06-02 06:49:33	Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	Croatia	BUY	498	6¢	$28	0x479dff…
06-02 06:49:32	Spread: Croatia (-2.5)	Croatia	BUY	518	6¢	$30	0x19bca8…
06-02 06:15:03	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	510	9¢	$46	0xf3bb8d…
06-02 06:14:39	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	SELL	542	9¢	$49	0xc132ae…
06-02 05:43:17	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	510	8¢	$41	0xb99e3d…
06-02 05:43:02	Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by June 30?	Yes	BUY	542	8¢	$43	0x981f95…
05-24 03:07:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	SELL	21	52¢	$11	0xfb520d…
05-24 03:06:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	Yes	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x5d46fe…
05-18 04:44:00	Spread: SD Huesca (-1.5)	CD Leganés	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0xb46e74…
05-18 04:38:46	Spread: SD Huesca (-1.5)	CD Leganés	BUY	4	92¢	$3	0xf61d71…
05-18 04:36:58	Spread: SD Huesca (-1.5)	CD Leganés	BUY	427	92¢	$392	0x7a3fe3…
05-15 04:02:16	Spread: Çaykur Rizespor (-2.5)	Beşiktaş JK	BUY	463	95¢	$440	0x6ed98b…
05-15 03:58:09	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xce019e…
05-15 03:57:57	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	439	98¢	$430	0x04d6c5…
05-15 02:07:02	Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	450	98¢	$442	0xadf73c…
05-14 03:38:22	Spread: Al Najmah Saudi Club (-1.5)	Al Fateh Saudi Club	BUY	483	93¢	$449	0xb635b6…
05-14 03:34:01	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	458	98¢	$450	0x678ecf…
05-14 01:57:07	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	458	97¢	$446	0x224965…
05-13 04:37:40	Spread: Athletic Club (-2.5)	RCD Espanyol de Barcelona	BUY	443	94¢	$417	0x12b52a…
05-06 07:21:20	Spread: Matsumoto Yamaga FC (-2.5)	FC Gifu	BUY	470	96¢	$452	0xe5ee17…
05-06 07:18:22	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	No	SELL	469	96¢	$452	0xa0f4f8…
05-06 06:10:42	Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in May 2026?	No	BUY	469	96¢	$452	0x209359…
04-20 05:14:28	es2 dep mir 2026 04 20 spread away 1pt5	RC Deportivo La Coruña	BUY	477	96¢	$459	0xc74dd2…
04-17 04:28:34	chi hai qin 2026 04 17 spread away 2pt5	Qingdao Hainiu FC	BUY	460	97¢	$447	0xacf187…
04-17 04:25:26	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	452	99¢	$446	0x9af93f…
04-17 03:02:30	Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	452	99¢	$446	0xa065e1…
04-02 05:37:05	bra san cre 2026 04 02 spread away 2pt5	Santos FC	BUY	304	98¢	$299	0x4f60cc…
04-01 03:25:37	bra2 csc vln 2026 04 01 csc	No	BUY	299	98¢	$295	0x36cbea…
03-30 04:45:08	fif egy esp 2026 03 30 egy	No	BUY	295	95¢	$280	0x8685f1…