Verifiable-Romance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29.8K

Unrealized P&L

+$303

Hit rate

53.0%

Resolved

608

Trades

13,427

lifetime

Volume

$1.08M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$81

Open exposure

$1.29K

4 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 10-22 19:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Politics

85% 53% -$29,327

Other

12% 50% -$185

Tech

1% 69% -$326

Sports

1% 67% +$240

Crypto

0% 23% -$187

Pop-Culture

0% 33% -$49

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+1,000	$700	98¢	$980	+$280	10-22 19:33
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?	No	+649	$418	33¢	$211	-$206	06-10 20:55
trump meets with mojtaba khamenei by december 31	Yes	+4,462	$251	2¢	$103	-$148	06-17 17:41
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	+0	-$378	20¢	$0	+$378	07-27 08:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	132	$54.0K	74,649	74,649	+0	Yes	-$5,002	02-28 07:39
US strikes Iran by March 2, 2026?	162	$50.1K	126,076	126,768	-693	Yes	-$1,137	02-27 09:58
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	28	$28.3K	15,530	15,530	+0	No	+$345	02-27 17:15
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	300	$28.2K	38,305	32,205	+6,100	Yes	-$875	06-20 13:46
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	132	$26.4K	39,499	39,499	+0	Yes	-$2,155	06-14 22:34
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	99	$25.6K	23,040	22,440	+600	No	-$1,434	06-01 01:41
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	191	$23.6K	92,375	93,127	-751	No	-$4,008	03-20 17:47
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	67	$23.5K	32,664	32,664	+0	No	-$921	05-30 11:35
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	26	$22.5K	13,829	13,829	+0	Yes	+$398	02-28 06:18
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	137	$22.5K	28,578	20,428	+8,150	Yes	-$3,093	06-14 20:19
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	26	$21.0K	10,576	10,876	-300	No	+$187	02-25 01:15
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	113	$19.7K	29,000	29,000	+0	Yes	+$1,327	06-11 17:46
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	103	$19.2K	26,061	23,200	+2,860	Yes	+$493	06-14 07:31
US strikes Iran by March 6, 2026?	24	$18.5K	12,443	12,443	+0	Yes	-$131	02-27 21:03
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	76	$18.3K	18,952	8,831	+10,121	Yes	-$5,948	02-28 06:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	111	$15.3K	21,071	20,071	+1,000	Yes	+$1,347	06-15 04:03
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	17	$13.9K	9,338	9,338	+0	Yes	+$963	04-05 03:49
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	109	$12.9K	25,176	14,232	+10,944	No	-$2,900	06-19 05:29
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	48	$11.8K	9,569	10,280	-711	No	+$141	05-28 02:52
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	58	$11.7K	16,397	16,397	+0	No	+$371	06-14 14:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through December 31?	54	$11.1K	8,132	8,155	-23	No	+$1,907	05-25 23:31
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	14	$11.1K	5,532	5,700	-168	No	+$85	02-24 00:07
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	28	$10.8K	6,520	6,730	-210	No	+$275	03-30 05:44
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	32	$10.5K	13,336	11,047	+2,289	Yes	+$354	06-14 21:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	90	$10.1K	72,093	72,093	+0	Yes	+$625	06-15 06:46
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026?	44	$9.6K	13,690	13,690	+0	Yes	+$198	02-27 10:32
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	22	$9.1K	11,454	11,454	+0	Yes	-$543	06-13 11:39
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	39	$8.6K	1,264	15,413	-14,149	Yes	+$7,842	05-25 17:49
US strikes Iran by March 4, 2026?	12	$8.2K	9,081	9,081	+0	Yes	-$4,520	02-28 06:20
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	70	$7.9K	9,781	9,392	+389	Yes	+$151	06-12 14:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 19:33:05	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	70¢	$700	0x6c3ac2…
09-23 08:28:11	Ren Zhengfei public appearance by December 31?	No	BUY	600	26¢	$156	0xd20e64…
09-20 16:12:34	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	1,000	91¢	$910	0xb922a4…
09-19 14:24:21	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	No	BUY	600	53¢	$318	0x9fd1d0…
07-27 08:03:48	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,304	21¢	$274	0x624049…
07-27 07:55:37	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	21¢	$210	0xdf05fc…
07-27 07:52:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,000	21¢	$210	0x4f0405…
07-27 07:46:39	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x6ddfde…
07-27 07:39:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x903cf5…
07-27 07:39:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x9bc0a2…
07-27 06:47:00	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0x750b5a…
07-27 06:43:19	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	143	21¢	$30	0x1eb613…
07-27 06:42:25	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	205	21¢	$43	0xa5078d…
07-27 06:20:30	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x3e5027…
07-27 06:13:22	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	94	21¢	$20	0xaad7ad…
07-27 06:06:07	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	12	21¢	$3	0x088cab…
07-27 06:06:04	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	2,216	21¢	$465	0xbc99b0…
07-26 19:37:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	1,000	99¢	$993	0xa9c8de…
07-26 19:32:13	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	1,700	5¢	$90	0x25af98…
07-09 08:01:56	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x964098…
07-09 07:34:41	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	6	95¢	$5	0x8ecad2…
07-09 07:31:10	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	34	95¢	$32	0x5eb655…
07-09 06:57:14	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	9	95¢	$9	0x160375…
07-09 06:55:37	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	36	95¢	$34	0xd1215e…
07-09 06:53:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	18	95¢	$17	0x874a31…
07-09 06:52:52	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	6	95¢	$6	0xdfeee2…
07-09 06:52:40	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	14	95¢	$13	0x55da85…
07-09 06:48:04	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x215bf1…
07-09 06:42:02	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	23	95¢	$22	0xe14d6c…
07-09 03:51:55	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	2	95¢	$2	0x27faa5…
07-09 03:05:31	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	SELL	12	95¢	$11	0xf35eb9…
06-20 15:01:25	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	106	5¢	$6	0x80e083…
06-20 13:50:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	340	26¢	$87	0x7f1fcd…
06-20 13:49:14	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	647	26¢	$165	0xdbfd9a…
06-20 13:46:41	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	13	26¢	$3	0xfc5be2…
06-20 13:46:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	166	9¢	$15	0xefb813…
06-20 13:46:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	9¢	$5	0x3b0d73…
06-20 13:46:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	9¢	$14	0x8b9a8d…
06-20 13:45:59	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,000	1¢	$8	0xf67aa5…
06-20 13:42:55	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	62	9¢	$6	0x8be29a…
06-20 13:41:04	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	29	9¢	$3	0x87c910…
06-20 13:41:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	52	9¢	$5	0x772b76…
06-20 13:41:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	374	9¢	$34	0x5b6fbf…
06-20 13:41:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	115	9¢	$11	0x052bc5…
06-20 13:40:07	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	290	58¢	$168	0xe62a66…
06-20 13:39:35	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	227	58¢	$132	0x368b72…
06-20 13:39:01	starmer out by june 26 2026	No	BUY	483	58¢	$280	0x553cb5…
06-20 13:25:13	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	2,000	17¢	$340	0x415a42…
06-20 13:25:08	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,000	50¢	$501	0xa456c2…
06-20 13:24:32	us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 21 2026	No	BUY	1,000	55¢	$553	0x28b42e…
06-20 10:11:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,512	40¢	$1,005	0x27a4b9…
06-20 10:11:14	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	300	40¢	$120	0x8f63b7…
06-20 09:48:31	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	189	5¢	$10	0x52dfd9…
06-20 08:58:41	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	300	10¢	$30	0x7530a6…
06-20 07:40:41	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	1,250	29¢	$362	0x80e0f4…
06-20 06:34:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	122	28¢	$34	0x9155ce…
06-20 06:18:22	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xdada73…
06-20 06:03:37	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	815	28¢	$228	0x039c40…
06-20 02:15:17	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	SELL	4,050	5¢	$202	0x94386a…
06-20 02:15:08	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	SELL	3,000	13¢	$390	0x9d9722…
06-19 21:02:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x0a5fce…
06-19 21:01:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	26¢	$260	0x4f4421…
06-19 20:08:32	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,341	15¢	$201	0xf7014c…
06-19 19:52:28	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	46¢	$460	0x753ae3…
06-19 19:50:08	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0xc341b8…
06-19 19:49:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	56	51¢	$29	0x4fb09e…
06-19 19:49:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	937	51¢	$478	0x86f603…
06-19 19:48:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	34¢	$340	0x39f35a…
06-19 19:46:34	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	367	24¢	$88	0x720efe…
06-19 19:35:25	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	633	24¢	$152	0xef0e98…
06-19 19:34:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	59¢	$590	0xfe0d28…
06-19 19:34:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	485	26¢	$126	0x3fb41d…
06-19 19:34:53	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	43¢	$430	0x096c58…
06-19 19:34:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2	26¢	$0	0xb1e99b…
06-19 19:34:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	513	26¢	$133	0x5e3a08…
06-19 19:33:44	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	29¢	$290	0x1a9742…
06-19 19:31:10	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Yes	BUY	1,000	60¢	$600	0x013b7d…
06-19 19:30:49	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by july 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	45¢	$450	0x804d5e…
06-19 19:29:53	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	31¢	$310	0xa43a70…
06-19 16:56:13	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	161	12¢	$19	0xb5936d…
06-19 16:26:26	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0xc44517…
06-19 16:03:10	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xdedb34…
06-19 15:02:05	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	59	36¢	$21	0xb753bf…
06-19 15:00:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	141	36¢	$51	0xb6d2f3…
06-19 14:46:34	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	42¢	$83	0x13b6a9…
06-19 13:09:02	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	43	12¢	$5	0xc91b98…
06-19 12:51:38	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	46¢	$93	0xf4725c…
06-19 12:01:17	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	SELL	482	4¢	$18	0x7f785f…
06-19 11:29:37	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x998f4c…
06-19 11:12:25	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xdff11d…
06-19 10:51:32	will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	Yes	SELL	2,072	3¢	$60	0xcd1d10…
06-19 10:48:47	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	250	12¢	$30	0xf41ae8…
06-19 10:36:52	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	190	50¢	$95	0x651bc9…
06-19 10:35:32	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	50¢	$5	0xe239c9…
06-19 10:30:05	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0xe4482e…
06-19 10:27:11	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	47¢	$94	0xe534d3…
06-19 10:07:29	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	5	12¢	$1	0xa9bf37…
06-19 09:35:55	israeli parliament dissolved by july 15	No	BUY	178	55¢	$98	0xc10d3b…
06-19 09:33:07	israel x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	33	12¢	$4	0x240725…
06-19 09:24:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 31 2026 436	No	SELL	231	23¢	$53	0xe5a59f…