Wavy-Fertilizer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$3

Unrealized P&L

-$49

Hit rate

99.2%

Resolved

133

Trades

1,245

lifetime

Volume

$14.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$91

1 position

First seen

2026-04-16

last 06-28 20:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Crypto

66% 99% +$1

Politics

16% — —

Other

12% 100% +$2

Tech

6% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

50 active days in 12wk • peak 146 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No		+200	$140	46¢	$91	$-49	06-17 13:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	4	$616	400	400	+0	open	—	06-08 20:55
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	6	$526	600	400	+200	open	—	05-27 18:33
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	9	$499	412	412	+0	open	—	06-12 18:56
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	11	$475	424	424	+0	open	—	06-28 20:52
trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	8	$340	200	200	+0	open	—	06-10 00:19
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	5	$282	220	441	-221	open	—	06-13 06:05
us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	2	$252	200	200	+0	open	—	06-12 19:02
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	4	$250	255	255	+0	open	—	06-02 18:49
us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	2	$241	201	201	+0	open	—	06-05 12:55
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	2	$240	200	200	+0	open	—	06-08 07:21
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	2	$208	200	200	+0	open	—	06-01 19:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$171	385	385	+0	open	—	05-25 13:45
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	4	$152	200	200	+0	open	—	05-26 14:34
Ebola case in the US by June 30?	3	$144	0	200	-200	open	—	05-30 20:04
Fed rate hike in 2026?	1	$140	200	0	+200	open	—	06-17 13:25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	7	$127	107	107	+0	open	—	06-10 11:05
will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	2	$76	63	63	+0	open	—	06-09 18:05
sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	1	$69	0	100	-100	open	—	06-07 18:34
nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	3	$55	76	76	+0	open	—	06-10 00:31
spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	1	$50	200	0	+200	open	—	06-05 07:14
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	2	$47	57	57	+0	open	—	06-09 13:35
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	2	$24	200	200	+0	open	—	06-05 15:06
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	2	$24	100	100	+0	open	—	05-21 04:22
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET	2	$19	16	16	+0	open	—	05-14 19:59
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-14 19:37
XRP Up or Down - May 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-15 05:37
Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-17 07:57
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-14 18:24
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-14 20:53
XRP Up or Down - May 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$16	16	0	+16	open	—	05-14 17:48

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-28 20:52:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	5	58¢	$3	0x5f5d83…
06-28 20:46:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x29576e…
06-25 13:38:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	29¢	$0	0x3fbfea…
06-25 13:34:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x82166d…
06-25 13:19:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	15	36¢	$5	0x7489c7…
06-25 13:18:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	4	35¢	$1	0xdd26e0…
06-25 13:18:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	15	35¢	$5	0x712c4e…
06-22 13:50:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x2d9085…
06-22 13:40:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0xe4095c…
06-17 13:25:16	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	200	70¢	$140	0x138d10…
06-13 06:05:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	221	42¢	$93	0x7acf55…
06-12 19:02:37	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xb3ff13…
06-12 19:02:31	us x iran permanent peace deal by august 31 2026	Yes	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0x4205fc…
06-12 18:56:16	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	SELL	8	3¢	$0	0x9552b8…
06-12 15:41:00	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	SELL	4	45¢	$2	0x4bf2ce…
06-12 15:38:52	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	4	44¢	$2	0x1d9f34…
06-12 15:38:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	6	44¢	$3	0x9d845c…
06-12 15:38:51	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x3ae637…
06-12 06:46:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	155	43¢	$67	0x048d04…
06-12 06:36:37	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	60	43¢	$26	0xa6282f…
06-12 06:36:36	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	5	43¢	$2	0xecb241…
06-12 06:17:39	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	220	43¢	$95	0x68ff03…
06-10 11:05:10	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	25	62¢	$16	0x878f06…
06-10 11:05:06	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	18	62¢	$11	0x87fa24…
06-10 11:04:03	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	43	61¢	$26	0x229044…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	61¢	$26	0x99246a…
06-10 05:42:39	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	43	62¢	$27	0x51eb7a…
06-10 00:31:22	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	75	36¢	$27	0x2c5899…
06-10 00:30:10	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	SELL	1	36¢	$0	0xa3370e…
06-10 00:19:25	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	134	85¢	$113	0xb16231…
06-10 00:18:46	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	30	85¢	$26	0x65c1a7…
06-10 00:18:39	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xd1b1ba…
06-10 00:18:39	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0xca5731…
06-10 00:18:39	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	1	85¢	$1	0x7ee951…
06-10 00:18:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xea9421…
06-10 00:18:37	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	SELL	28	85¢	$24	0x9dbcd5…
06-10 00:18:34	trump announces us x iran ceasefire over by june 15 20260607232556275 193	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0x19f163…
06-09 19:15:52	nba nyk sas 2026 06 13	Knicks	BUY	76	36¢	$27	0xfcf0a1…
06-09 18:05:45	will anthropic ipo by september 30 2026 733	No	SELL	63	60¢	$38	0x516827…
06-09 14:55:31	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	62¢	$124	0xa75c20…
06-09 13:59:42	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	62¢	$124	0x669c8f…
06-09 13:35:22	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$17	0xfa10c3…
06-08 20:55:22	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	200	82¢	$164	0x51b58f…
06-08 20:52:09	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	82¢	$164	0x55fc6a…
06-08 08:24:42	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June?	No	BUY	57	54¢	$31	0x7ec59e…
06-08 07:21:00	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	SELL	200	60¢	$120	0xf07331…
06-08 07:16:19	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 30 848 925 757 129 337	No	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x755f88…
06-07 20:34:49	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	200	72¢	$144	0xd0ee73…
06-07 20:34:04	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xc84750…
06-07 18:34:10	sports prediction markets taxed as gambling	No	SELL	100	69¢	$69	0x703089…
06-06 15:23:46	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	SELL	200	61¢	$122	0xb07a0f…
06-06 14:37:48	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Yes	BUY	200	61¢	$122	0xfae4c3…
06-05 15:06:15	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	SELL	200	6¢	$12	0x27bf76…
06-05 15:05:34	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T	Yes	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0x0f2902…
06-05 12:55:18	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	SELL	201	60¢	$121	0x375a81…
06-05 12:53:15	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	201	60¢	$121	0x8e4fd2…
06-05 07:14:54	spacex ipo closing market cap above 2pt6t	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x209224…
06-03 19:52:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	200	63¢	$126	0xd1992c…
06-03 19:48:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	200	63¢	$126	0xed8710…
06-03 15:56:03	Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	63	60¢	$38	0x728ea4…
06-02 18:49:57	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	126	49¢	$62	0x69fd06…
06-02 18:49:53	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	126	49¢	$62	0xc8fef8…
06-01 19:18:55	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x7e77f2…
06-01 12:25:45	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	BUY	200	52¢	$104	0xbb8566…
05-30 20:04:21	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	SELL	19	72¢	$14	0x9c3028…
05-30 19:59:47	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	SELL	167	72¢	$120	0xa68b0c…
05-30 19:42:03	Ebola case in the US by June 30?	No	SELL	14	72¢	$10	0x7e2460…
05-30 18:31:29	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	SELL	21	52¢	$11	0xa991e5…
05-30 18:09:35	Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June?	No	BUY	21	52¢	$11	0x4fb8a4…
05-30 04:45:10	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	129	49¢	$63	0x646679…
05-30 04:44:56	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	129	49¢	$63	0x05b826…
05-27 18:33:24	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	55¢	$110	0x60828f…
05-26 14:34:24	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	145	38¢	$55	0x456e35…
05-26 14:32:04	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	36	38¢	$13	0x1bdefa…
05-26 13:55:26	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	19	38¢	$7	0x5d095b…
05-26 13:55:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	200	38¢	$76	0xed1626…
05-25 15:06:00	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	SELL	2	17¢	$0	0x5e30f8…
05-25 15:05:58	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26?	Yes	BUY	2	18¢	$0	0xc8a61a…
05-25 13:45:14	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	185	30¢	$56	0xcedbdb…
05-25 13:45:11	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	30¢	$56	0x2d9614…
05-22 23:57:59	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	188	53¢	$100	0xa711af…
05-22 22:07:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	200	15¢	$30	0xbf39af…
05-22 22:02:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x2889a3…
05-22 20:24:57	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	12	55¢	$6	0xc03366…
05-22 20:24:55	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	53¢	$106	0x8c649f…
05-21 21:12:25	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	51¢	$102	0x452a8c…
05-21 15:53:18	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	51¢	$102	0x25ee9c…
05-21 04:22:07	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0x80d16e…
05-21 04:16:06	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x202b24…
05-18 01:57:45	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x5ac18f…
05-18 01:19:08	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x2c2f0a…
05-18 00:57:47	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xa3606d…
05-18 00:38:46	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x8bb9cc…
05-18 00:34:18	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x5c4013…
05-18 00:34:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x39e80d…
05-18 00:09:27	BNB Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x0d791d…
05-18 00:08:55	XRP Up or Down - May 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x91f91b…
05-18 00:03:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0xebf919…
05-17 23:57:52	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x5f254b…
05-17 23:53:49	Ethereum Up or Down - May 17, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET	Up	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x1dcb16…