Foolhardy-Panpipe — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$46

Unrealized P&L

+$32

Hit rate

92.4%

Resolved

Trades

114

lifetime

Volume

$9.87K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$87

Open exposure

$641

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-05

last 07-16 10:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

84% 88% $-46

Crypto

12% — —

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

9 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	+384	$309	86¢	$330	+$21	06-11 11:40
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	+324	$200	76¢	$246	+$46	06-12 10:16
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+192	$100	34¢	$64	$-36	06-12 10:17

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	1	$590	602	0	+602	open	—	06-05 11:22
Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	4	$324	312	200	+112	open	—	03-26 16:26
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	2	$309	384	0	+384	open	—	06-11 11:40
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	1	$300	303	0	+303	open	—	03-26 16:28
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	1	$300	308	0	+308	open	—	04-10 12:47
will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in february 694 291 362 384	1	$300	304	0	+304	open	—	02-19 21:02
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	2	$300	307	0	+307	open	—	07-16 10:15
Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	5	$279	308	0	+308	Yes	+$29	05-04 17:44
kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	2	$250	268	0	+268	open	—	07-16 10:15
will annual inflation increase by 2pt2 in february 898 464 326 877	1	$200	206	0	+206	open	—	02-19 21:01
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$200	208	0	+208	open	—	05-23 14:40
will annual inflation increase by 2pt9 in march	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	04-02 12:02
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	1	$200	215	0	+215	open	—	02-19 20:59
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	2	$200	324	0	+324	open	—	06-12 10:16
will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in february 876 736 952 866	1	$200	211	0	+211	open	—	02-19 21:01
will gas hit low 3pt15 by march 31	1	$200	202	0	+202	open	—	03-26 16:33
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be less than 1pt0	1	$200	201	0	+201	open	—	02-19 21:05
Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	5	$198	200	0	+200	No	+$2	04-14 05:38
Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?	3	$189	202	0	+202	No	+$14	04-19 22:02
will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in january 214	2	$166	175	0	+175	open	—	01-13 17:26
Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?	2	$159	160	0	+160	No	+$1	04-12 14:21
bitcoin above 90k on january 13	2	$154	156	0	+156	open	—	01-13 15:24
bitcoin above 92k on january 6	1	$153	157	0	+157	open	—	01-06 14:14
will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	1	$150	177	0	+177	open	—	02-19 21:05
will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	1	$150	154	0	+154	open	—	01-29 13:45
will monthly inflation increase by 0pt4 in december 631	1	$150	170	0	+170	open	—	01-05 12:52
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	1	$150	158	0	+158	open	—	01-07 22:51
will the bank of canada announce an increase at the january meeting	1	$150	151	0	+151	open	—	01-05 13:01
will bitcoin dip to 60k in january 2026	1	$149	150	0	+150	open	—	01-21 09:28
will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	1	$143	152	0	+152	open	—	01-07 22:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 10:15:55	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	162	92¢	$150	0x546e34…
07-16 10:15:46	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	204	98¢	$200	0x1233e8…
07-08 21:48:53	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	No	BUY	106	95¢	$100	0x0c62c3…
07-08 21:48:43	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	No	BUY	103	97¢	$100	0xdca9a7…
06-12 10:17:45	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x7483eb…
06-12 10:16:30	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0xe9c337…
06-11 11:40:24	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x35ece3…
06-10 18:34:27	Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026?	No	BUY	162	62¢	$100	0x01a2a0…
06-10 18:34:18	Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?	No	BUY	140	78¢	$109	0x500bcc…
06-05 11:22:37	Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	602	98¢	$590	0xd1eade…
05-23 14:40:43	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	208	96¢	$200	0xbb3584…
05-12 10:22:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0xdca4d8…
05-12 10:22:12	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x5e744c…
05-12 10:21:35	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x4dfa75…
05-04 17:44:22	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	26	97¢	$25	0x61dd71…
05-04 16:12:50	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0xb7fc4d…
05-04 14:40:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	52	96¢	$50	0x771c4e…
05-04 14:38:54	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	97¢	$46	0x5b980f…
04-19 22:02:52	Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?	No	BUY	160	92¢	$147	0xf5c876…
04-14 05:38:33	Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	No	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x5cdb18…
04-13 11:55:43	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x85035b…
04-13 11:19:47	Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	No	BUY	47	98¢	$46	0x867d1e…
04-13 11:19:29	Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x1d2470…
04-13 10:58:01	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x4476b3…
04-13 10:56:33	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	39	37¢	$14	0x7fe44f…
04-13 10:53:21	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	89¢	$107	0x04b99c…
04-13 10:52:39	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x0bd57e…
04-13 10:51:59	Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$7	0xe98e4a…
04-13 10:51:07	Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?	No	BUY	32	98¢	$31	0x87d397…
04-13 05:51:33	Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x8f2817…
04-13 05:50:55	Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x124c5b…
04-13 05:49:09	Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x1ea467…
04-13 05:48:07	Will annual inflation increase by 3.2% in April?	No	BUY	125	99¢	$124	0xc18642…
04-12 14:21:53	Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0xc723f7…
04-12 12:21:19	Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1f6021…
04-12 12:20:03	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	0	50¢	$0	0xfc8f0e…
04-12 12:19:19	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	11	50¢	$6	0x978ab6…
04-12 12:17:57	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	7	50¢	$4	0x896ce8…
04-12 12:17:07	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	9	50¢	$4	0xc75674…
04-12 12:16:59	Will annual inflation increase by 3.4% in April?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x07483e…
04-12 12:16:35	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0x5ea2e1…
04-12 12:16:33	Will annual inflation increase by ≥4.1% in April?	No	BUY	41	99¢	$40	0x2e110b…
04-12 12:16:21	Will annual inflation increase by 4.0% in April?	No	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0xf77f04…
04-12 12:15:11	Will annual inflation increase by ≤3.1% in April?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x60d4a6…
04-12 12:14:29	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	47	64¢	$30	0xdaffe5…
04-12 12:13:21	Will annual inflation increase by 3.3% in April?	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xcef58e…
04-12 12:06:09	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xe589d3…
04-12 12:06:05	Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?	Yes	BUY	35	47¢	$16	0x603d24…
04-10 12:47:35	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	308	97¢	$300	0xea4ff1…
04-02 12:04:01	Will inflation reach more than 3.5% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	114	88¢	$100	0x4eefba…
04-02 12:02:45	will annual inflation increase by 2pt9 in march	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x3818d0…
03-26 16:33:51	will gas hit low 3pt15 by march 31	No	BUY	202	99¢	$200	0x9fd490…
03-26 16:31:19	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0x00d907…
03-26 16:28:55	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	303	99¢	$300	0x5e209f…
03-26 16:28:41	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x82c3a2…
03-26 16:28:03	will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in march	No	BUY	105	95¢	$100	0x63bd57…
03-26 16:27:37	will annual inflation increase by 3pt3 in march	Yes	BUY	57	35¢	$20	0x33d2a6…
03-26 16:26:43	Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	112	98¢	$110	0x426574…
03-26 16:26:27	will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in march	Yes	BUY	113	98¢	$110	0xe4629d…
03-09 10:42:31	Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	No	SELL	126	24¢	$30	0x1571fe…
03-03 21:46:07	Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	No	SELL	74	54¢	$40	0xfda1de…
02-19 21:06:12	no change in bank of japans interest rates after march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	128	94¢	$120	0xd9501e…
02-19 21:05:46	will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be less than 1pt0	No	BUY	201	100¢	$200	0x59f29c…
02-19 21:05:36	will us gdp growth in q4 2025 be greater than 3pt5	No	BUY	177	85¢	$150	0x827582…
02-19 21:02:04	will annual inflation increase by 2pt1 in february 694 291 362 384	No	BUY	304	99¢	$300	0x97a714…
02-19 21:01:50	will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in february 876 736 952 866	No	BUY	211	95¢	$200	0x4b0edd…
02-19 21:01:38	will annual inflation increase by 2pt2 in february 898 464 326 877	No	BUY	206	97¢	$200	0xc2b89c…
02-19 20:59:38	will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	45	5¢	$2	0x70dbe4…
02-19 20:59:28	will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	215	93¢	$200	0x898db3…
01-30 10:01:08	will donald trump announce a new nominee for chair of the federal reserve by january 31 2026 849 849 957 245	Yes	BUY	21	96¢	$20	0x0feebd…
01-29 13:54:28	will dogecoin dip to 0pt1 in january 2026	No	BUY	83	97¢	$81	0xf0c0ff…
01-29 13:53:14	Hyperliquid listed on Coinbase before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x584fdc…
01-29 13:52:18	us strikes iran by january 29 2026 183 883 657 383 499	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x7c123b…
01-29 13:49:46	bitcoin above 86k on january 29	Yes	BUY	51	98¢	$50	0x944146…
01-29 13:47:00	gc settle above 5100 jan 2026	Yes	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xea001a…
01-29 13:45:08	will silver si hit high 140 by end of january 438 122 492	No	BUY	154	97¢	$150	0xd186b2…
01-29 13:43:30	spx opens up or down on january 29 2026	Up	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0xca69f6…
01-28 13:36:17	will annual inflation increase by 2pt7 in january 763	No	BUY	36	89¢	$33	0x16f3f4…
01-27 12:42:51	spx opens up or down on january 27 2026	Up	BUY	33	89¢	$29	0xc0caa0…
01-27 12:41:09	will bitcoin dip to 80k in january 2026	No	SELL	31	94¢	$29	0xfa667a…
01-27 12:40:19	will bitcoin reach 105k in january 2026	No	BUY	128	98¢	$126	0x83a1a2…
01-27 12:39:11	Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	104	50¢	$52	0x5bf23c…
01-21 09:31:06	will bitcoin reach 115k in january 2026	No	BUY	68	99¢	$68	0xe19f69…
01-21 09:28:48	will bitcoin dip to 60k in january 2026	No	BUY	150	99¢	$149	0xe738db…
01-21 09:28:34	will bitcoin dip to 65k in january 2026	No	BUY	101	99¢	$100	0xc62ca8…
01-21 09:25:38	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	No	BUY	55	91¢	$50	0xb1bde6…
01-13 17:51:01	will bitcoin dip to 70k in january 2026	No	BUY	68	98¢	$67	0x2685e2…
01-13 17:48:45	Will the US strike Yemen next?	No	BUY	100	97¢	$97	0x0e7be3…
01-13 17:48:25	Will the US strike Cuba nex	No	BUY	100	99¢	$99	0x1079de…
01-13 17:27:55	will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in january	No	BUY	36	99¢	$36	0xd46122…
01-13 17:26:55	will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in january 214	Yes	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x0700a5…
01-13 17:25:31	Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0xd57f02…
01-13 17:23:57	will annual inflation increase by 2pt8 in january 214	Yes	BUY	150	95¢	$142	0x6606b3…
01-13 17:23:41	will annual inflation increase by 2pt9 in january	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x849150…
01-13 15:24:29	bitcoin above 90k on january 13	Yes	BUY	54	99¢	$54	0x3d7486…
01-13 14:04:39	bitcoin above 90k on january 13	Yes	BUY	102	98¢	$100	0x78b914…
01-11 20:16:40	will annual inflation increase by 3pt1 in december	No	BUY	60	99¢	$59	0xc9984e…
01-11 20:14:18	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	No	SELL	62	55¢	$34	0xc18cbf…
01-11 20:14:12	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	78	32¢	$25	0x4519c4…
01-07 22:54:59	will bitcoin dip to 75k in january 2026	No	BUY	152	94¢	$143	0x862f85…