Imperfect-Sugar — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$898

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

95.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$31.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$483

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 09-28 01:07

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Crypto

54% 100% +$26

Other

28% 80% -$938

Politics

13% 100% +$13

Tech

6% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

3 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	9	$2.2K	1,119	1,119	+0	No	+$3	05-23 05:52
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$2.2K	1,117	1,117	+0	No	+$4	04-25 11:15
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	2	$2.2K	1,110	1,110	+0	No	+$3	04-18 08:31
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$2.2K	1,114	1,114	+0	No	+$4	04-03 15:57
bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	2	$2.2K	1,103	1,103	+0	No	+$3	03-23 04:57
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$1.8K	924	924	+0	No	+$8	06-27 14:15
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	2	$1.8K	913	913	+0	No	+$2	05-31 16:00
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	4	$1.3K	645	645	+0	No	+$3	06-27 09:05
Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	4	$1.2K	703	703	+0	open	—	09-23 03:19
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	2	$1.1K	568	568	+0	No	+$5	03-12 14:07
Will Solana dip to $30 in April?	1	$1.1K	1,115	0	+1,115	No	+$1	04-27 00:54
will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	2	$1.1K	560	560	+0	No	+$7	02-26 13:35
will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	2	$1.1K	553	553	+0	No	+$1	01-28 14:02
will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	2	$1.1K	552	552	+0	No	+$2	01-25 08:21
bitcoin above 60k on march 13	1	$1.1K	1,092	0	+1,092	Yes	+$2	03-12 14:07
bitcoin above 66k on march 11	2	$1.0K	527	527	+0	Yes	+$5	03-11 13:35
bitcoin above 70k on march 10	2	$1.0K	522	522	+0	Yes	+$1	03-10 15:44
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,114	1,114	+0	No	-$962	09-28 01:07
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$944	530	530	+0	open	—	09-13 12:19
will bitcoin dip to 62k march 9 15	1	$821	824	0	+824	No	+$3	03-14 12:13
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	2	$638	320	320	+0	No	+$1	06-17 18:00
will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	4	$544	273	273	+0	No	+$2	03-15 23:28
will the price of solana be between 120 130 on march 8	1	$520	520	0	+520	No	+$1	03-07 14:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$368	185	185	+0	No	+$1	07-29 18:00
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$366	184	184	+0	No	+$1	07-02 11:55
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	2	$366	184	184	+0	No	+$0	07-26 00:40
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	2	$364	182	182	+0	No	$0	07-01 01:31

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-28 01:07:54	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,114	2¢	$27	0xf8fee1…
09-23 03:19:47	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	596	92¢	$549	0x83baf7…
09-23 03:19:22	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	703	79¢	$558	0x92b5a5…
09-13 12:21:27	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	518	85¢	$440	0xc305f5…
09-13 12:19:42	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	530	84¢	$446	0xbd5a25…
08-02 21:10:47	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	214	85¢	$182	0xd7d2b9…
07-29 18:00:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	185	100¢	$185	0x04b8c6…
07-26 00:40:55	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	185	99¢	$184	0x995a78…
07-26 00:40:30	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	184	100¢	$183	0x3ea1f8…
07-07 12:29:17	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	184	99¢	$183	0xd4063b…
07-02 11:55:25	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	184	100¢	$183	0x0fa9fc…
07-01 01:32:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	184	99¢	$183	0x5a9e19…
07-01 01:31:50	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	No	SELL	182	100¢	$182	0x4fc4c6…
06-28 13:14:16	Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $170 by end of June?	No	BUY	182	100¢	$182	0x82b1e7…
06-28 13:13:43	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	530	94¢	$498	0x968dce…
06-28 13:13:25	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	483	91¢	$441	0xaf4bb0…
06-27 14:15:50	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	693	100¢	$692	0x4a97f8…
06-27 09:05:23	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	435	100¢	$435	0xb07ef7…
06-18 01:37:31	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	435	100¢	$433	0x85fe3a…
06-17 18:00:41	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	320	100¢	$319	0x8de175…
06-16 23:29:20	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0x5dd995…
06-07 12:56:19	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	320	100¢	$318	0x45b4db…
06-06 13:54:28	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	210	99¢	$209	0xc0d41f…
06-05 06:15:37	Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x825a7c…
06-03 21:28:28	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$114	0x0f59f5…
06-03 01:17:03	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	924	99¢	$912	0x3df055…
05-31 16:00:55	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	SELL	913	100¢	$912	0xd3bfa7…
05-25 12:14:48	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	913	100¢	$910	0xff1514…
05-23 05:52:28	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	629	100¢	$629	0xe4b6fe…
05-21 12:35:26	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x56c84d…
05-21 12:35:23	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$53	0xf7da27…
05-21 12:35:23	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	57	100¢	$57	0xb63aad…
05-21 12:35:19	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$53	0xc4a89f…
05-21 12:35:14	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	54	100¢	$53	0xe69af4…
05-21 12:35:12	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	51	100¢	$51	0xdc4004…
05-10 14:56:50	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	210	98¢	$207	0x2d7939…
05-10 02:17:04	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	210	100¢	$209	0x3e69c9…
05-06 14:02:08	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1,119	100¢	$1,115	0xea1927…
04-27 00:54:26	Will Solana dip to $30 in April?	No	BUY	1,115	100¢	$1,114	0x05c5dc…
04-25 11:15:54	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	1,117	100¢	$1,114	0x4780d1…
04-19 01:12:04	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	1,117	99¢	$1,110	0xdd0817…
04-18 08:31:50	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	SELL	1,110	100¢	$1,108	0xd08fc1…
04-03 15:57:41	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April?	No	BUY	1,110	100¢	$1,105	0xf537a0…
04-03 15:57:33	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	1,114	99¢	$1,105	0xfa3cac…
03-23 04:57:47	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1,114	99¢	$1,100	0x9278b0…
03-23 04:57:23	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	SELL	1,103	100¢	$1,100	0xd06d47…
03-16 16:03:45	bitcoin all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	1,103	100¢	$1,097	0x14dacc…
03-15 23:28:55	will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	No	SELL	238	100¢	$238	0x61e1a4…
03-15 07:25:59	will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0xfe7c5f…
03-14 12:14:35	will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	No	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x7f0dfb…
03-14 12:14:05	will bitcoin reach 78k march 9 15	No	BUY	238	99¢	$236	0xdec2f1…
03-14 12:13:37	will bitcoin dip to 62k march 9 15	No	BUY	824	100¢	$821	0x2e0249…
03-12 14:07:35	bitcoin above 60k on march 13	Yes	BUY	1,092	100¢	$1,090	0x2e5827…
03-12 14:07:21	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	568	99¢	$564	0x679c84…
03-11 13:35:25	bitcoin above 66k on march 11	Yes	SELL	527	100¢	$526	0x1bbd3d…
03-10 15:46:05	bitcoin above 66k on march 11	Yes	BUY	527	99¢	$521	0xbf15e1…
03-10 15:44:55	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	SELL	522	100¢	$521	0xe26beb…
03-10 15:43:55	bitcoin above 70k on march 10	Yes	BUY	522	100¢	$520	0xb634b9…
03-07 14:23:35	will the price of solana be between 120 130 on march 8	No	BUY	520	100¢	$520	0x3f7cac…
03-02 02:42:17	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	568	98¢	$560	0x6fd234…
02-26 13:35:08	will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	No	SELL	560	100¢	$559	0x9c111f…
01-29 12:13:54	will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	No	BUY	560	99¢	$552	0x951a5b…
01-28 14:02:41	will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	No	SELL	553	100¢	$552	0x714c11…
01-27 02:26:05	will bitcoin reach 125k in january 2026	No	BUY	553	100¢	$552	0x8b065b…
01-25 08:21:50	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	SELL	552	100¢	$552	0x7f92d2…
01-04 01:24:11	will bitcoin reach 150k in january 2026	No	BUY	552	100¢	$550	0xa84a9d…