Outlandish-Pond — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$19

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

10.8%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$265

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-24

last 05-18 08:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

57% 0% $-19

Politics

22% — —

Other

12% 100% +$0

Tech

10% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	2	$32	167	167	+0	open	—	04-24 12:24
ChatGPT Outage by May 1?	2	$25	16	15	+0	open	—	04-29 17:23
israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	4	$25	2,868	0	+2,868	open	—	04-30 14:47
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	2	$21	29	29	+0	open	—	04-27 15:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	3	$18	35	0	+35	open	—	05-16 12:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	3	$15	17	12	+5	open	—	04-30 19:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	2	$11	8	8	+0	open	—	04-30 19:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	1	$10	20	0	+20	Up	$-10	05-05 16:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	2	$10	14	0	+14	open	—	05-15 18:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	2	$8	23	0	+23	open	—	05-18 08:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	3	$8	10	10	+0	open	—	05-16 10:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	2	$7	9	9	+0	open	—	05-15 12:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	3	$7	10	10	+0	open	—	05-16 09:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	5	$7	68	0	+68	open	—	05-14 12:28
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	3	$7	80	0	+80	Up	$-7	05-05 16:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	1	$5	50	0	+50	open	—	04-30 19:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$5	19	0	+19	open	—	05-18 08:09
Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	1	$5	56	0	+56	open	—	04-24 11:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	4	$5	17	3	+14	open	—	05-15 12:17
btc updown 5m 1777034700	3	$3	7	2	+5	open	—	04-24 12:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$3	108	0	+108	open	—	05-14 12:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$3	30	0	+30	open	—	05-14 12:21
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	2	$3	2	2	+0	open	—	05-05 16:33
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	2	$2	3	3	+0	Yes	+$0	05-05 16:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	1	$2	200	0	+200	open	—	05-15 17:50
will jd vance visit pakistan by april 24	1	$2	102	0	+102	open	—	04-24 12:27
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	2	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	2	$2	16	0	+16	open	—	05-15 18:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	2	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	05-16 12:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	2	$2	50	0	+50	open	—	05-15 12:13

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-18 08:11:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0xdc7b70…
05-18 08:10:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xb87f53…
05-18 08:09:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	19	27¢	$5	0xe9e166…
05-16 12:49:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	19	31¢	$6	0xff40f6…
05-16 12:49:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	13	85¢	$11	0x8054f7…
05-16 12:45:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x1b6bb1…
05-16 12:44:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x450efa…
05-16 12:40:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xfae2d2…
05-16 12:37:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x26c065…
05-16 12:36:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x43adea…
05-16 10:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0x7a13aa…
05-16 10:36:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	SELL	0	40¢	$0	0x5dab28…
05-16 10:35:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	10	35¢	$4	0xf56535…
05-16 09:28:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	SELL	10	54¢	$5	0x22c811…
05-16 09:27:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x2b7886…
05-16 09:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xcdc925…
05-15 18:06:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Down	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x341503…
05-15 18:06:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET	Up	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xbdaa58…
05-15 18:02:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xce6a69…
05-15 18:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xef7704…
05-15 17:50:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0xba2d5a…
05-15 12:53:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	9	69¢	$6	0x4edb5f…
05-15 12:53:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xe14472…
05-15 12:49:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0xd775bd…
05-15 12:17:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x315d58…
05-15 12:16:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x99ee4f…
05-15 12:15:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	SELL	3	56¢	$2	0xbac594…
05-15 12:15:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x7b87cd…
05-15 12:13:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb33d0d…
05-15 12:12:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xfaf1d2…
05-14 12:28:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x1ae0e7…
05-14 12:27:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x54cdd8…
05-14 12:27:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xca076d…
05-14 12:25:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xcadf8a…
05-14 12:25:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xd2d2ad…
05-14 12:21:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xa4a132…
05-14 12:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0xa3efec…
05-14 12:18:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x824949…
05-14 12:17:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0x1dbbac…
05-14 12:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x1ca919…
05-05 17:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x5e3b60…
05-05 16:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xa0260b…
05-05 16:53:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xd50b2e…
05-05 16:52:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x716eee…
05-05 16:49:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x109e75…
05-05 16:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x2bff1d…
05-05 16:34:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	SELL	3	43¢	$1	0xbcd023…
05-05 16:33:46	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	2	67¢	$2	0xf6000a…
05-02 20:40:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x609786…
05-02 20:38:28	Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x1932bc…
05-01 06:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x4d9e63…
04-30 19:20:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xcd390f…
04-30 19:19:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0xbafbe8…
04-30 19:15:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x50f63b…
04-30 19:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x8c1cb1…
04-30 19:10:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xb5763c…
04-30 19:07:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x32b4d0…
04-30 14:47:30	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$4	0x047bf3…
04-30 07:28:10	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfbe2fa…
04-30 05:35:04	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xd134c0…
04-29 17:23:10	ChatGPT Outage by May 1?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x4b4d80…
04-27 15:28:50	israel x hezbollah ceasefire extended by april 26 2026	No	BUY	35	55¢	$19	0x9212fb…
04-27 15:27:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	29	39¢	$11	0xd6e694…
04-24 12:47:18	btc updown 5m 1777034700	Down	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0xce8164…
04-24 12:46:34	btc updown 5m 1777034700	Up	SELL	2	78¢	$1	0x078633…
04-24 12:44:32	btc updown 5m 1777034400	Down	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xceb9d6…
04-24 12:42:54	btc updown 5m 1777034700	Up	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xcd8bbc…
04-24 12:27:18	will jd vance visit pakistan by april 24	Yes	BUY	102	2¢	$2	0x5041e5…
04-24 12:24:36	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	13¢	$22	0xc155ab…
04-24 11:52:14	U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	BUY	1,170	0¢	$1	0xc6cea5…
04-24 11:46:54	Will Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x6455fd…
04-24 08:13:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xc943ea…
04-24 08:10:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0xd8505c…
04-24 05:51:44	ChatGPT Outage by May 1?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xb3d240…