Realized P&L (30d)
-$5
Unrealized P&L
-$5
Hit rate
59.3%
Resolved (30d)
16
Trades (30d)
345
2,873 lifetime
Volume (30d)
$302
$5.14K lifetime
Avg / trade
$2
Open exposure
$41
24 positions
First seen
2026-01-02
last 11-01 16:27
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 66 days
Categories
Other
65% 49% +$159
Politics
22% 39% +$1
Sports
14% 38% -$170
Crypto
0% 50% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
34 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027? No -8 -$7 92¢ $-7 +$0 10-30 23:50
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No -6 -$6 96¢ $-6 $0 10-28 23:19
Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026? No +4 $4 92¢ $4 $0 11-01 14:31
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? No -3 -$3 95¢ $-3 +$0 07-03 18:52
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes +132 $7 2¢ $2 -$5 07-03 08:11
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 95¢ $2 +$0 11-01 11:34
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No +2 $1 96¢ $2 +$1 11-01 16:27
Modi out by December 31, 2026? No +2 $2 97¢ $2 +$0 10-17 21:28
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? No -1 -$1 97¢ $-1 $0 07-19 21:55
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No -1 -$1 96¢ $-1 $0 10-30 20:15
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? No -1 -$1 96¢ $-1 $0 11-01 04:18
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? No -1 -$1 88¢ $-1 $0 10-23 07:31
Will Macky Sall be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations? No +1 $1 98¢ $1 +$0 10-23 20:48
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 11-01 07:33
Will Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026? No +1 $1 94¢ $1 $0 10-12 19:12
Kadyrov out as Head of the Chechen Republic by December 31, 2026? No +1 $1 96¢ $1 +$0 10-07 13:08
Edi Rama out as Albania PM in 2026? No +1 $1 90¢ $1 $0 11-01 15:17
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1 $1 66¢ $1 +$0 11-01 13:23
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes +4 $1 12¢ $0 $0 11-01 09:47
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No +0 $1 94¢ $0 $0 11-01 18:18
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? No +0 $1 99¢ $0 $0 11-01 09:35
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No +1 $1 51¢ $0 $0 10-29 11:26
Trump out as President before 2027? No -0 $0 97¢ $-0 $0 10-18 17:53
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes +0 $0 99¢ $0 +$0 10-31 22:07