Confused-Liner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

-$17

Hit rate

86.0%

Resolved

Trades

236

lifetime

Volume

$15.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$65

Open exposure

$32

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-24 09:19

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

53% 100% +$0

Other

30% 0% $-0

Tech

14% — —

Crypto

2% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No		-20	$-19	97¢	$-19	$-0	05-30 13:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+200	$30	6¢	$13	$-17	05-31 14:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$1.9K	990	990	+0	open	—	04-18 05:00
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$1.9K	950	950	+0	open	—	04-30 10:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	14	$1.2K	1,790	1,594	+196	open	—	05-19 13:54
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$1.0K	670	670	+0	open	—	04-10 01:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$1.0K	707	707	+0	open	—	04-22 04:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$995	510	510	+0	open	—	04-10 08:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	3	$849	500	500	+0	open	—	04-18 02:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$788	400	400	+0	open	—	04-30 05:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$712	400	400	+0	open	—	05-10 13:50
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	04-06 04:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	9	$393	200	200	-0	No	+$0	05-08 11:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$392	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 08:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 13:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	04-06 12:32
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$139	70	70	+0	open	—	03-27 12:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$116	62	62	+0	open	—	06-01 12:33
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	2	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	05-20 08:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	4	$113	57	57	+0	open	—	03-25 10:04
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	17	$98	185	122	+63	open	—	03-10 19:29
will shawn harris win the ga 14 special election	4	$87	40	60	-20	open	—	03-10 20:06
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$86	43	43	+0	open	—	03-30 06:06
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-27 12:51
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$79	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:33
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	2	$71	43	43	+0	open	—	05-13 13:45
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	2	$66	50	50	+0	open	—	05-26 08:38
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	03-30 02:05
will the fed decrease interest rates by 50 bps after the march 2026 meeting	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	03-10 20:07
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$54	27	27	+0	No	$-0	03-30 02:04
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	3	$52	500	520	-20	open	—	06-03 13:53

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-24 09:19:47	will the announcers say messi during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646405	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xb98a72…
06-24 09:18:35	will the announcers say messi during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646405	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x0781a0…
06-24 09:10:17	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947279	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x35cc81…
06-24 09:09:40	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947279	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x444d98…
06-24 09:05:58	will the announcers say record during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646391	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xf9c738…
06-24 09:02:59	will the announcers say record during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646391	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xbc400e…
06-18 11:22:56	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0xc7072d…
06-18 11:22:11	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xd800df…
06-18 11:21:34	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x28ac7b…
06-18 11:20:08	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x1adb11…
06-18 11:07:01	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x1ba825…
06-18 11:05:56	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x587574…
06-09 11:11:07	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$6	0x21bdf0…
06-07 17:58:13	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x3adb26…
06-03 13:53:57	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$16	0x2c2b05…
06-01 12:33:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xa2dbcf…
05-31 16:26:42	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	264	7¢	$20	0x2b67d6…
05-31 14:29:22	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0x011db0…
05-31 14:06:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	88¢	$54	0x3d73e6…
05-31 14:06:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x56c34a…
05-30 13:43:05	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xaeb832…
05-30 13:30:33	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	264	7¢	$19	0x684a5e…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x682f8a…
05-30 12:46:25	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x57d83a…
05-30 12:46:25	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x3fc323…
05-30 12:36:49	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xc88fb7…
05-30 12:36:41	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xc6d1e9…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf54493…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xcadce6…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x6febb1…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x04255f…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd9071e…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd063b2…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xbe6ca1…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xa438f5…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$0	0x9f29e5…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x468206…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x3a7dd5…
05-30 10:17:28	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0xc24e50…
05-30 10:17:21	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x00ebcc…
05-30 10:16:55	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x1ea642…
05-30 10:16:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x52af43…
05-30 10:15:50	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x54517b…
05-30 10:12:08	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xe6704c…
05-30 10:11:31	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x916bbb…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x66c27c…
05-30 10:10:16	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa0c8ed…
05-30 10:08:22	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x91d985…
05-30 09:45:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x90d213…
05-30 09:44:11	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	7	81¢	$6	0xd1b82f…
05-30 09:32:28	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?	No	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xa0a013…
05-30 09:21:19	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x1e333b…
05-30 09:19:45	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xb06daa…
05-30 09:19:29	Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x3c101a…
05-30 09:19:17	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0x48e2dc…
05-30 09:18:21	Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	9¢	$2	0x7f2170…
05-30 09:18:19	Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0x888629…
05-30 09:06:46	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	81¢	$16	0x1bad22…
05-30 09:06:16	Will Trump meet with Keir Starmer in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x4ac2a3…
05-30 09:02:55	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	SELL	9	48¢	$4	0x6d08f1…
05-30 09:02:23	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	No	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0x49d0f9…
05-30 09:01:36	Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 15?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x8fd5a9…
05-26 08:38:11	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	50	64¢	$32	0x00eb27…
05-26 08:37:28	Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	50	69¢	$34	0x1e24b8…
05-26 08:33:24	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	SELL	78	21¢	$16	0x05bf8b…
05-26 08:31:08	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $312 in May?	No	BUY	78	21¢	$16	0x6ac16a…
05-26 08:23:12	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	18¢	$18	0xf44b82…
05-26 08:21:30	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	19¢	$19	0xc2dead…
05-25 13:28:42	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5014da…
05-25 13:28:02	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xa54f06…
05-22 12:54:26	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x767617…
05-20 08:16:29	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	SELL	50	19¢	$10	0x79eb9c…
05-20 08:14:37	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in May?	Yes	BUY	50	21¢	$11	0x3907a3…
05-20 08:08:34	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	SELL	100	57¢	$57	0x9b4db5…
05-20 08:06:39	Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	58¢	$58	0x4aa16f…
05-20 03:24:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	15	94¢	$14	0x446c1c…
05-20 03:11:55	Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x80089c…
05-20 03:11:46	Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0xf73f69…
05-20 03:11:38	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0xac5146…
05-19 13:55:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	100	96¢	$96	0x99b3d1…
05-19 13:54:07	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	90	98¢	$89	0x14a7b3…
05-19 13:53:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$9	0x485a3b…
05-19 13:10:24	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0x1f1d42…
05-19 13:03:00	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0xb66267…
05-13 14:02:24	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	SELL	20	82¢	$16	0x18f628…
05-13 14:01:14	Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0xaceca7…
05-13 13:45:39	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	SELL	43	83¢	$36	0xa0a81b…
05-13 13:45:06	Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	No	BUY	43	83¢	$36	0xdd1797…
05-13 09:48:05	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	SELL	50	39¢	$20	0x6faccb…
05-13 09:47:04	Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x5fb102…
05-10 13:50:35	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	SELL	400	90¢	$360	0xff0d1f…
05-10 12:27:44	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	400	88¢	$352	0x266c1a…
05-10 11:19:13	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	SELL	800	2¢	$20	0x599b3a…
05-10 10:05:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	60	3¢	$2	0xb6074e…
05-10 10:01:45	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	55	3¢	$1	0x4bba81…
05-10 09:56:05	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	25	3¢	$1	0xce1c60…
05-10 09:52:41	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	600	3¢	$16	0xf6039f…
05-10 09:39:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	3¢	$0	0xf957bf…
05-10 09:36:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	3¢	$1	0x06ce2c…
05-08 11:56:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	52	98¢	$51	0x34ff86…