Confused-Liner — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$10

Unrealized P&L

-$19

Hit rate

86.0%

Resolved

Trades

288

lifetime

Volume

$15.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$30

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 07-22 12:29

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Politics

52% 100% +$0

Other

30% 0% $-0

Tech

14% — —

Crypto

3% — —

Sports

1% 0% $-10

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

21 active days in 12wk • peak 42 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No		-20	$-19	97¢	$-19	$-0	05-30 13:43
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes		+200	$30	6¢	$11	$-19	05-31 14:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	16	$1.9K	990	990	+0	open	—	04-18 05:00
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	6	$1.9K	950	950	+0	open	—	04-30 10:19
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	14	$1.2K	1,790	1,594	+196	open	—	05-19 13:54
jd vance diplomatic meeting with iran by april 10	2	$1.0K	670	670	+0	open	—	04-10 01:54
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	5	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	04-10 05:17
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	9	$1.0K	707	707	+0	open	—	04-22 04:01
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$995	510	510	+0	open	—	04-10 08:14
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	3	$849	500	500	+0	open	—	04-18 02:28
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$788	400	400	+0	open	—	04-30 05:10
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	2	$712	400	400	+0	open	—	05-10 13:50
Trump out as President by April 30?	2	$393	200	200	+0	open	—	04-06 04:40
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026?	9	$393	200	200	-0	No	+$0	05-08 11:56
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	2	$392	200	200	+0	open	—	04-02 08:38
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	2	$192	100	100	+0	open	—	05-19 13:55
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$180	100	100	+0	open	—	04-06 12:32
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$139	70	70	+0	open	—	03-27 12:51
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	2	$116	62	62	+0	open	—	06-01 12:33
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $180 in May?	2	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	05-20 08:08
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?	4	$113	57	57	+0	open	—	03-25 10:04
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	17	$98	185	122	+63	open	—	03-10 19:29
will trump say six seven during remarks in georgia 20260720190340728	2	$95	50	50	+0	open	—	07-22 12:29
will shawn harris win the ga 14 special election	4	$87	40	60	-20	open	—	03-10 20:06
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$86	43	43	+0	open	—	03-30 06:06
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	4	$81	90	90	+0	open	—	07-22 12:26
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$80	40	40	+0	open	—	03-27 12:51
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 100 119	2	$79	100	100	+0	open	—	03-24 10:33
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14?	2	$71	43	43	+0	open	—	05-13 13:45
will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	4	$71	40	40	+0	open	—	07-22 04:30
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?	2	$66	50	50	+0	open	—	05-26 08:38
will alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	03-30 02:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-22 12:29:48	will trump say six seven during remarks in georgia 20260720190340728	No	SELL	50	94¢	$47	0xe6cb8e…
07-22 12:29:24	will trump say six seven during remarks in georgia 20260720190340728	No	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x16397a…
07-22 12:26:49	amd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1pt61	Yes	SELL	20	51¢	$10	0x9e6203…
07-22 12:26:27	amd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1pt61	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0x2a2cac…
07-22 12:26:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	SELL	50	5¢	$3	0x354cc0…
07-22 12:25:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	No	BUY	50	6¢	$3	0x98c47d…
07-22 12:18:48	will total crypto market cap hit 2pt75t in 2026 20260721192934668	Yes	SELL	20	55¢	$11	0x32d723…
07-22 12:17:12	will total crypto market cap hit 2pt75t in 2026 20260721192934668	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xa73442…
07-22 12:13:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	SELL	40	94¢	$38	0x2a9ee0…
07-22 12:12:21	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 22 20260716224448966	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$38	0xcb8164…
07-22 12:05:03	will ewy dip to 160 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x6af177…
07-22 12:04:25	will ewy dip to 160 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0xe88fd3…
07-22 05:00:19	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	SELL	20	39¢	$8	0x631e7d…
07-22 04:58:40	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 30 2026 20260721160333086	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x4db622…
07-22 04:31:00	spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	Up	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xc771ec…
07-22 04:30:51	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xed9af4…
07-22 04:30:33	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	Yes	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x1819c6…
07-22 04:30:31	spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	Up	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x169b0a…
07-22 04:18:31	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	SELL	40	11¢	$4	0xa78f13…
07-22 04:18:24	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	Yes	SELL	20	88¢	$18	0xcd1cd8…
07-22 04:18:04	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x6bca8f…
07-22 04:16:51	will lebron sign his next nba contract by august 9 2026 20260721160426367	Yes	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xf13e56…
07-22 04:10:48	aptv quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1pt43	No	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x6fbdb6…
07-22 04:10:15	aptv quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 04 2026 1pt43	No	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x9e9113…
07-22 04:02:21	wti up or down on july 22 2026	Up	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0x86275a…
07-22 03:59:54	wti up or down on july 22 2026	Up	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0x436868…
07-22 03:58:07	spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	Up	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0xdcc88a…
07-22 03:57:31	spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	Up	BUY	18	41¢	$8	0xa17be0…
07-22 03:57:18	spx opens up or down on july 22 2026	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xaf97f6…
07-22 03:57:16	will lebron sign his next nba contract by july 24 2026 20260721160302714	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4a59a7…
07-21 08:38:06	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	SELL	40	6¢	$2	0xd59595…
07-21 08:37:43	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x8fe1f9…
07-21 08:36:57	will dan jarvis be in the burnham cabinet 20260623004533213	Yes	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xac05b9…
07-21 08:00:55	will trump say oil gas or gasoline during remarks in georgia 20260720190340727	No	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x2a1c29…
07-21 08:00:31	will trump say oil gas or gasoline during remarks in georgia 20260720190340727	No	BUY	2	16¢	$0	0x380080…
07-21 07:57:19	will warsh say oil during july press conference 20260720204109045	No	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0xbead2e…
07-21 07:57:07	will warsh say oil during july press conference 20260720204109045	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x470700…
07-21 07:57:04	will warsh say president during july press conference 20260720204109049	No	SELL	5	45¢	$2	0x627465…
07-21 07:56:19	will warsh say president during july press conference 20260720204109049	No	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x8aa645…
07-09 05:24:20	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048 726	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x78f8cd…
07-08 02:45:02	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x7b0941…
07-08 02:42:13	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0xb42871…
07-08 02:37:38	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	No	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0xf8d1a1…
07-08 02:37:20	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	No	BUY	8	90¢	$7	0xede251…
07-08 02:37:04	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0xfc6e1e…
07-08 02:37:01	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x502ea3…
07-08 02:36:58	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	No	BUY	0	90¢	$0	0x01edd9…
07-08 02:34:56	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	Yes	SELL	8	6¢	$0	0x12caf6…
07-08 02:34:13	will vance say six seven during milwaukee remarks 20260707201847874	Yes	BUY	8	6¢	$0	0x4e1d4c…
07-08 02:26:55	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	SELL	20	7¢	$1	0x9734a7…
07-08 02:26:04	will trump say crypto or bitcoin during press conference 20260707192103065	Yes	BUY	20	8¢	$2	0x9c2fd3…
07-08 02:11:23	iran successfully targets shipping by july 31 20260707223722048	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0xa8909e…
06-24 09:19:47	will the announcers say messi during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646405	Yes	SELL	20	60¢	$12	0xb98a72…
06-24 09:18:35	will the announcers say messi during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646405	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x0781a0…
06-24 09:10:17	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947279	No	SELL	20	76¢	$15	0x35cc81…
06-24 09:09:40	will the announcers say nutmeg or meg during the scotland vs brazil fifa world cup match 20260623164947279	No	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x444d98…
06-24 09:05:58	will the announcers say record during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646391	Yes	SELL	20	66¢	$13	0xf9c738…
06-24 09:02:59	will the announcers say record during the switzerland vs canada fifa world cup match 20260623164646391	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0xbc400e…
06-18 11:22:56	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	SELL	8	56¢	$4	0xc7072d…
06-18 11:22:11	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	BUY	8	57¢	$5	0xd800df…
06-18 11:21:34	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x28ac7b…
06-18 11:20:08	will the announcers say qatar during the czechia vs south africa fifa world cup match 20260616211456410	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x1adb11…
06-18 11:07:01	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x1ba825…
06-18 11:05:56	will the announcers say ankle during the mexico vs south korea fifa world cup match 20260616192751362	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0x587574…
06-09 11:11:07	will drake have 3 albums in the billboard 200 top 10 20260602162056895	Yes	BUY	900	1¢	$6	0x21bdf0…
06-07 17:58:13	Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0x3adb26…
06-03 13:53:57	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	SELL	500	3¢	$16	0x2c2b05…
06-01 12:33:56	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xa2dbcf…
05-31 16:26:42	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	SELL	264	7¢	$20	0x2b67d6…
05-31 14:29:22	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	Yes	BUY	500	3¢	$16	0x011db0…
05-31 14:06:49	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	88¢	$54	0x3d73e6…
05-31 14:06:26	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	Yes	BUY	200	15¢	$30	0x56c34a…
05-30 13:43:05	Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?	No	SELL	20	97¢	$19	0xaeb832…
05-30 13:30:33	Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?	Yes	BUY	264	7¢	$19	0x684a5e…
05-30 12:46:27	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x682f8a…
05-30 12:46:25	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x57d83a…
05-30 12:46:25	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x3fc323…
05-30 12:36:49	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xc88fb7…
05-30 12:36:41	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xc6d1e9…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xf54493…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xcadce6…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x6febb1…
05-30 12:36:34	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x04255f…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd9071e…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xd063b2…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xbe6ca1…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0xa438f5…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$0	0x9f29e5…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x468206…
05-30 12:36:32	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	SELL	1	77¢	$1	0x3a7dd5…
05-30 10:17:28	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	No	SELL	7	78¢	$5	0xc24e50…
05-30 10:17:21	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	SELL	20	19¢	$4	0x00ebcc…
05-30 10:16:55	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	Yes	BUY	20	19¢	$4	0x1ea642…
05-30 10:16:44	Will Russia enter Moskovka by July 31?	No	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0x52af43…
05-30 10:15:50	Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7?	No	BUY	7	78¢	$5	0x54517b…
05-30 10:12:08	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xe6704c…
05-30 10:11:31	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x916bbb…
05-30 10:11:12	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x66c27c…
05-30 10:10:16	Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xa0c8ed…
05-30 10:08:22	Will Trump speak to Masoud Pezeshkian in June?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x91d985…