Capital-Poem — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$20.9K

Unrealized P&L

-$2.55K

Hit rate

47.5%

Resolved

10,986

Trades

53,606

lifetime

Volume

$651.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$6.51K

12 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-01 12:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Crypto

86% 54% -$15,584

Other

10% 58% -$3,275

Sports

4% 25% -$1,146

Tech

1% 60% -$866

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 1 trade/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	-3,035	-$1,841	86¢	$-2610	-$769	06-22 13:44
Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	-1,988	-$266	78¢	$-1561	-$1,295	06-22 17:56
Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	-984	-$463	80¢	$-787	-$324	06-22 13:45
StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	-583	-$482	98¢	$-573	-$91	06-22 13:46
StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	-388	-$276	99¢	$-384	-$108	06-22 13:47
US recession by end of 2026?	No	+409	$326	92¢	$379	+$52	06-02 15:06
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+138	$41	96¢	$133	+$92	06-02 15:06
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	+409	$84	8¢	$31	-$53	06-01 12:16
Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	-71	-$37	32¢	$-23	+$14	06-22 13:56
Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	-150	-$10	9¢	$-14	-$4	06-22 13:57
StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	-317	-$45	3¢	$-9	+$35	06-22 13:56
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	+138	$100	4¢	$5	-$95	06-01 12:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	83	$16.8K	28,002	2,391	+25,612	No	-$811	04-15 08:04
crint pak usa 2026 02 10	13	$11.7K	6,467	6,467	+0	Pakistan	+$227	02-10 15:27
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	56	$10.4K	13,606	2,520	+11,086	No	+$294	03-17 14:16
ucl ars spo1 2026 04 15 spo1	72	$7.6K	15,274	0	+15,274	No	-$135	04-15 18:58
Paradex FDV above $300M one day after launch?	111	$7.3K	12,659	0	+12,659	No	-$792	02-10 00:52
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 18:15 UTC	38	$7.1K	13,738	0	+13,738	Down	-$530	03-17 18:28
Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?	41	$5.9K	9,369	649	+8,720	open	—	10-01 12:17
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	37	$5.3K	10,327	0	+10,327	No	-$150	04-08 12:53
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-01 10:30 UTC	570	$4.0K	7,657	0	+7,657	Down	-$59	03-01 10:43
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	9	$3.8K	10,212	5,055	+5,157	Yes	+$126	01-19 20:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-31 08:45 UTC	46	$3.6K	6,981	0	+6,981	Down	-$58	03-31 08:59
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	65	$3.2K	20,892	13,333	+7,559	No	-$517	01-19 18:23
Nvidia Data Center Revenue above 75B in Q1?	184	$3.2K	4,586	0	+4,586	Yes	-$867	05-18 13:16
crint gbr wst 2026 02 11	10	$3.0K	9,000	0	+9,000	West Indies	-$2,870	02-11 16:59
Will Paradex launch a token by February 28, 2026?	44	$2.6K	4,550	0	+4,550	No	-$489	02-20 08:14
infinex fdv above 300m one day after launch 311	19	$2.5K	5,319	0	+5,319	No	-$432	01-30 05:13
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	33	$2.5K	5,584	1,010	+4,573	Yes	-$171	03-13 20:56
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-11 15:00 UTC	14	$2.2K	2,464	0	+2,464	Down	+$234	03-11 15:08
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-25 09:00 UTC	571	$2.1K	4,206	0	+4,206	Up	-$88	02-25 09:14
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 15:30 UTC	63	$2.0K	3,114	0	+3,114	Down	-$161	03-19 15:43
bitcoin up or down february 25 2am et	483	$2.0K	4,059	0	+4,059	Up	+$8	02-25 07:57
ucl bog1 spo1 2026 03 11 spo1	104	$2.0K	2,863	0	+2,863	No	+$149	03-11 20:42
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	1	$1.8K	0	3,035	-3,035	open	—	06-22 13:44
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-17 17:45 UTC	26	$1.8K	4,467	0	+4,467	Up	-$278	03-17 17:57
bitcoin up or down march 13 10pm et	70	$1.6K	3,509	0	+3,509	Down	+$105	03-14 03:00
bitcoin up or down march 14 3am et	53	$1.5K	2,907	0	+2,907	Down	-$143	03-14 07:59
xrp up or down march 14 2am et	50	$1.5K	2,983	0	+2,983	Down	-$68	03-14 06:56
Will Paradex launch a token by March 31 2026?	21	$1.5K	2,050	0	+2,050	Yes	+$179	02-20 08:09
bitcoin up or down february 24 12pm et	411	$1.4K	3,101	0	+3,101	Down	-$2	02-24 17:59
bitcoin up or down march 13 9pm et	51	$1.4K	2,802	0	+2,802	Up	-$62	03-14 01:44

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-01 12:17:41	Pacifica FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	649	5¢	$33	0x6319a4…
06-22 17:56:13	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	994	22¢	$214	0x3efdfe…
06-22 13:58:50	Puffpaw FDV above $50M one day after launch?	No	SELL	994	5¢	$52	0x0aff03…
06-22 13:58:35	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	SELL	1	4¢	$0	0x4494d5…
06-22 13:58:25	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	SELL	1	5¢	$0	0x0fc326…
06-22 13:58:11	will openai ipo by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x8eb596…
06-22 13:57:52	Puffpaw FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	150	7¢	$10	0x676c28…
06-22 13:57:41	Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	853	0¢	$2	0x23fbed…
06-22 13:57:26	Will Pacifica launch a token by December 31 2026?	Yes	SELL	41	28¢	$12	0x299dbd…
06-22 13:57:13	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xae5272…
06-22 13:57:01	Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	329	4¢	$14	0x3598cf…
06-22 13:56:46	Pacifica FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	287	5¢	$14	0x4c105e…
06-22 13:56:28	Theo FDV above $700M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	238	1¢	$3	0x1dfda8…
06-22 13:56:17	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	71	53¢	$37	0xd47e86…
06-22 13:56:07	StandX FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	317	14¢	$45	0xe5d6e2…
06-22 13:55:53	Theo FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	163	15¢	$24	0x5519af…
06-22 13:55:41	Pacifica FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	631	3¢	$22	0x3d5329…
06-22 13:55:28	Will Pacifica launch a token by September 30 2026?	Yes	SELL	592	7¢	$43	0xb21301…
06-22 13:47:08	StandX FDV above $2B one day after launch?	No	SELL	388	71¢	$276	0xcb49b5…
06-22 13:46:50	StandX FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	SELL	583	83¢	$482	0xd1bf53…
06-22 13:45:59	Puffpaw FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	984	47¢	$463	0x6573b0…
06-22 13:44:53	Will Theo launch a token by June 30 2026?	No	SELL	1,194	88¢	$1,050	0xa73a74…
06-22 13:44:41	Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch?	No	SELL	3,035	61¢	$1,841	0x6125ce…
06-02 15:36:55	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	No	BUY	23	100¢	$23	0xfa76ec…
06-02 15:36:34	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	11	24¢	$3	0x30dbc6…
06-02 15:16:51	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	46	94¢	$43	0x6a4a42…
06-02 15:07:29	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	11	21¢	$2	0x3b4cdd…
06-02 15:06:44	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	67	60¢	$40	0x29445e…
06-02 15:06:32	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	3	47¢	$2	0xd02633…
06-02 15:06:16	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	64	30¢	$19	0x4f9073…
06-02 15:06:14	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x0d2f24…
06-02 15:06:11	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	101	79¢	$80	0x1473b9…
06-01 12:16:35	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$16	0xd3ce3e…
06-01 12:16:35	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x81e338…
06-01 12:16:35	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	74¢	$45	0x81c2c3…
06-01 12:16:35	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	4	64¢	$2	0x4b805d…
06-01 12:16:33	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xbb5b66…
06-01 12:16:33	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	21¢	$21	0xb52da7…
06-01 12:16:33	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	72	41¢	$29	0x7cb3a7…
06-01 12:16:33	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	43¢	$20	0x665080…
06-01 12:16:33	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	Yes	BUY	3	53¢	$2	0x4f886c…
06-01 12:16:33	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x36214c…
06-01 12:14:40	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	46	91¢	$41	0xd1b1b4…
06-01 12:14:40	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	No	BUY	68	63¢	$43	0xb0b993…
06-01 12:14:40	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	3	52¢	$2	0x8de6db…
06-01 12:14:40	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	61	30¢	$18	0x577f71…
06-01 12:14:40	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	11	23¢	$2	0x442fb3…
06-01 12:14:40	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	6	24¢	$1	0x13165e…
06-01 12:14:38	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	Yes	BUY	16	7¢	$1	0xca71d8…
06-01 12:14:38	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0xaaa25d…
06-01 12:14:38	US recession by end of 2026?	No	BUY	101	80¢	$81	0x62cace…
05-30 05:55:40	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xfc1f6c…
05-30 05:53:34	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0xe4834a…
05-30 04:15:55	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0xf76160…
05-30 04:10:42	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x184e38…
05-29 16:37:05	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xb6cdaa…
05-29 16:37:03	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x27a412…
05-29 16:27:15	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0xf83eb5…
05-29 16:27:15	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	No	BUY	16	95¢	$16	0xb5be6c…
05-29 16:27:15	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x5f168d…
05-29 16:27:15	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0x5268db…
05-29 16:27:13	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xc3bbee…
05-29 16:27:13	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	33¢	$14	0x9d64ba…
05-29 16:27:13	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x5a1ba4…
05-29 16:18:51	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	BUY	6	88¢	$5	0xe47783…
05-29 15:05:11	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	No	BUY	132	100¢	$131	0x8fe86c…
05-29 14:40:56	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	Yes	BUY	16	9¢	$1	0xefce03…
05-29 14:40:56	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xef52fc…
05-29 14:40:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	Yes	BUY	201	1¢	$2	0xcd9c42…
05-29 14:40:56	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	Yes	BUY	340	1¢	$4	0xb51540…
05-29 14:40:56	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	No	BUY	25	97¢	$24	0xace8d6…
05-29 14:40:56	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xa9d112…
05-29 14:40:56	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	4	89¢	$3	0x4697fb…
05-29 14:40:56	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	6	23¢	$1	0x2e76a1…
05-29 14:40:56	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	11	10¢	$1	0x1f8880…
05-29 14:40:55	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	No	BUY	41	89¢	$37	0x88d9a6…
05-29 09:38:04	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x75c64a…
05-29 09:37:49	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0x18c1df…
05-29 08:53:41	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	No	BUY	201	100¢	$201	0x4bedd0…
05-29 08:53:08	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	No	BUY	39	100¢	$39	0x174aea…
05-29 08:52:52	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$10	0xfba32e…
05-29 08:52:52	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0xa18d97…
05-29 08:52:52	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 3.0% and 3.5%?	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0x9088ad…
05-29 08:52:52	Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	35¢	$13	0x869258…
05-29 08:52:52	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$10	0x857ed0…
05-29 08:52:52	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x70667f…
05-29 08:52:52	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be less than 1.0%?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0x5fa921…
05-29 08:52:50	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0xb62b40…
05-29 08:52:50	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	No	BUY	291	100¢	$290	0x9cc3d9…
05-29 08:52:50	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in May?	Yes	BUY	25	6¢	$1	0x9abd60…
05-29 08:52:50	Will ground beef hit $10 per pound in 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	27¢	$11	0x3d4151…
05-29 08:52:50	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	Yes	BUY	171	1¢	$1	0x1fb36f…
05-29 08:08:42	US recession by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	101	22¢	$22	0x194bd3…
05-29 08:03:31	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in May?	No	BUY	131	100¢	$131	0x34c65e…
05-29 07:50:48	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x472ae0…
05-29 07:50:48	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 1.0% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x040b01…
05-29 07:49:03	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in May?	No	BUY	87	100¢	$86	0x1d1db6…
05-29 07:49:01	Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xe0b626…
05-29 07:49:01	Will US GDP growth in Q2 2026 be greater than 3.5%?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xd3f36f…
05-29 07:49:01	Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.25–$2.50 in May?	No	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0xa82636…