Careful-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$4.67K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

77.9%

Resolved

625

Trades

3,282

lifetime

Volume

$58.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 10-26 18:57

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 147 days

Categories

Other

82% 63% +$312

Sports

14% 77% +$4,102

Politics

4% 62% +$230

Crypto

0% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 39 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lly quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 7pt06	85	$2.8K	1,853	1,753	+100	Yes	+$362	02-04 11:52
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	21	$1.8K	1,296	1,296	+0	Knicks	+$797	05-20 02:48
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	5	$1.6K	1,034	1,034	+0	Yes	+$479	05-14 21:18
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	47	$1.3K	894	861	+32	Yes	+$21	09-09 20:36
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9	$1.1K	1,807	350	+1,457	Yes	+$891	06-14 00:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$1.1K	683	683	+0	Yes	+$267	03-01 00:30
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	23	$843	817	170	+646	Yes	+$118	04-30 10:45
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	25	$627	550	471	+79	Yes	+$79	10-13 11:34
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	16	$608	1,460	0	+1,460	Spurs	-$608	06-09 02:58
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?	14	$581	356	294	+61	Yes	-$10	05-20 07:38
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	11	$531	477	354	+123	Yes	+$123	09-24 20:16
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	7	$494	837	0	+837	Knicks	+$343	05-24 02:05
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	2	$424	225	225	+0	Gaethje	+$24	01-25 06:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$413	500	373	+127	No	-$47	01-15 00:48
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$400	247	190	+57	Yes	+$5	06-02 21:01
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?	18	$391	734	310	+424	No	-$203	10-09 01:30
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	10	$379	327	331	-5	No	+$245	04-21 20:34
chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 09 2026 0pt36	50	$378	553	0	+553	No	-$378	08-29 17:36
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$377	243	243	+0	Knicks	+$107	05-26 01:52
casy quarterly earnings gaap eps 09 08 2026 6pt75	13	$374	278	157	+120	Yes	+$17	08-31 23:02
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	12	$373	1,029	0	+1,029	Knicks	+$656	06-06 02:31
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$369	448	0	+448	Yes	+$79	08-27 11:06
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	21	$362	661	565	+97	No	+$318	05-21 11:43
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	8	$357	276	276	+0	Yes	+$150	04-22 20:09
lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 17 2026 4pt78	15	$355	177	227	-50	Yes	+$17	03-16 14:17
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	19	$334	1,878	451	+1,426	No	-$238	05-06 10:51
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	9	$333	199	199	+0	Yes	+$65	02-09 03:43
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	10	$316	1,005	0	+1,005	Knicks	+$689	06-04 02:21
cme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt74	6	$294	158	158	+0	Yes	+$19	02-04 12:07
nke quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 31 2026 0pt29	11	$287	168	168	+0	Yes	+$25	03-31 20:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 10:12:21	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	25	43¢	$11	0x7b0364…
10-27 10:11:47	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	11	100¢	$11	0x1b6099…
10-27 10:05:27	Will Mastercard (MA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x71d7cc…
10-27 10:03:57	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0xdb9126…
10-27 10:02:29	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	27	54¢	$14	0x3c489e…
10-27 10:00:42	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$28	0x231578…
10-27 09:10:18	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	28¢	$1	0x57e9cc…
10-26 18:57:50	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	48	62¢	$30	0xaae497…
10-26 18:56:20	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xf2edb0…
10-26 18:54:41	Will Ford (F) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	51	67¢	$34	0xd9e189…
10-26 04:23:17	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	24	52¢	$12	0x662931…
10-26 04:21:39	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	60	21¢	$13	0xab16c5…
10-26 01:34:32	Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	10¢	$2	0xe2ece9…
10-26 01:33:59	Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	3	62¢	$2	0x1f1e62…
10-26 01:32:30	Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	65	10¢	$7	0xeb8ef0…
10-26 01:31:48	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x4ee082…
10-26 01:31:05	Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9f59fa…
10-26 01:28:48	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	29	38¢	$11	0x315214…
10-24 07:46:00	Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	72¢	$4	0xa142c3…
10-24 07:41:30	Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	76¢	$9	0xf87a00…
10-24 07:32:30	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x880169…
10-24 07:30:56	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	27	89¢	$24	0x052d69…
10-22 19:39:56	Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x2f7269…
10-22 19:37:18	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x80c6d9…
10-22 19:32:27	Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	74¢	$9	0x977bf8…
10-22 19:31:47	Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	74¢	$16	0xd12663…
10-22 18:48:53	Will PayPal (PYPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	79¢	$5	0x69e515…
10-22 17:18:53	Will ExxonMobil (XOM) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	29	32¢	$9	0x4926e4…
10-22 16:01:48	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0x10331b…
10-22 14:17:36	Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x00c78f…
10-22 13:05:24	Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0xb44baa…
10-22 12:23:27	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	56¢	$8	0xd6f260…
10-22 12:20:21	Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0x2cfebc…
10-22 12:12:57	Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	67¢	$5	0xf61a86…
10-22 12:08:21	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x715b92…
10-22 11:11:27	Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	59¢	$4	0x6b6a6f…
10-22 11:09:59	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	40	48¢	$19	0x17356f…
10-22 11:07:26	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x432b9b…
10-22 11:05:21	Will Ford (F) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	54¢	$5	0xfdac56…
10-22 11:02:29	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	55¢	$7	0x9f46a1…
10-22 11:00:51	Will Procter & Gamble (PG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	44	99¢	$44	0x11b63b…
10-22 10:30:57	Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x4dbf4d…
10-22 10:24:57	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$3	0xe78015…
10-22 10:21:59	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xd94793…
10-22 10:20:20	Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	9	99¢	$9	0x05917d…
10-22 10:03:59	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0x6031dd…
10-22 10:03:57	Will Coca-Cola (KO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	68	72¢	$49	0x99faf3…
10-22 10:03:42	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0x0a2c69…
10-22 10:03:41	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0xdc8a88…
10-22 10:02:27	Will FedEx (FDX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	26	55¢	$15	0x3a0a8c…
10-22 10:00:51	Will Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0x9e58ef…
10-22 10:00:51	Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	47	99¢	$47	0x0336f9…
10-21 22:18:56	Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	75¢	$13	0x9b98f5…
10-21 22:11:30	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	77¢	$5	0x2f375f…
10-21 22:11:29	Will Microsoft (MSFT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	80¢	$6	0x1292c3…
10-21 22:11:27	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	68¢	$10	0xca1773…
10-21 22:11:27	Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	75¢	$9	0x757f7d…
10-21 22:11:12	Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6547a4…
10-21 22:11:12	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	54¢	$0	0x166221…
10-21 22:09:57	Will Chipotle (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x79614d…
10-21 22:08:20	Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x980bc3…
10-21 21:33:57	Will Ford (F) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	47¢	$9	0x63d866…
10-21 21:32:20	Will Hilton (HLT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0x113517…
10-21 20:23:29	Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	75¢	$12	0xa2b62f…
10-21 20:17:29	Will Merck (MRK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x811826…
10-21 20:14:20	Will Labcorp (LH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	19	80¢	$15	0x0eb310…
10-21 20:06:50	Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	51¢	$5	0x199b3f…
10-21 20:03:48	Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x9943dd…
10-21 12:41:27	Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x3c0939…
10-21 12:38:27	Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0x30de14…
10-21 12:36:48	Will Visa (V) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xd9cf5b…
10-21 12:36:48	Will Union Pacific (UNP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	24	48¢	$12	0x00c646…
10-21 12:35:27	Will eBay (EBAY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	76¢	$23	0x91eadf…
10-21 12:35:27	Will Invesco (IVZ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	65¢	$9	0x4ac46f…
10-20 22:30:51	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x540939…
10-20 20:29:23	Will Kraft Heinz (KHC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x10b1d6…
10-20 20:14:14	Will Lockheed Martin (LMT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xcfa877…
10-20 20:10:05	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	62¢	$31	0x5bfa7b…
10-20 20:09:53	Will Chipotle (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	68¢	$13	0x416a82…
10-20 20:08:57	Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	43	100¢	$43	0x54cb8e…
10-20 20:07:54	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	92	62¢	$57	0x4ee9f8…
10-20 20:06:44	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0x72a96a…
10-20 20:05:23	Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x4e1a17…
10-20 20:05:14	Will Capital One (COF) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x2bd4cd…
10-20 20:03:53	Will Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	73¢	$4	0x159cbb…
10-20 20:02:14	Will Netflix (NFLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	86	99¢	$85	0x7a5fd8…
10-20 13:21:53	Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	66¢	$3	0x681d58…
10-20 12:56:12	Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xf1dd8d…
10-20 12:50:21	Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xc3d078…
10-20 12:44:12	Will Honeywell (HON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x51f6af…
10-20 12:41:12	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x296599…
10-20 12:39:42	Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xcd84a4…
10-20 11:17:23	Will Dow (DOW) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x3a9859…
10-20 11:11:12	Will NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	75¢	$10	0x6e2b48…
10-20 11:08:23	Will UPS (UPS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	71¢	$6	0xedf761…
10-20 11:05:23	Will Chipotle (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$4	0x223543…
10-20 11:03:42	Will Equifax (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$34	0x4c68c8…
10-20 11:03:02	Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x18595e…
10-20 11:02:24	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0xc92260…
10-20 11:02:24	Will Chipotle (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x1283a3…