Careful-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$380

Unrealized P&L

+$29

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved (90d)

187

Trades (90d)

944

3,482 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$19.0K

$63.0K lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$344

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-05 23:05

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 155 days

Categories

Other

82% 64% +$28

Sports

13% 77% +$4,102

Politics

5% 62% +$230

Crypto

0% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes		+134	$79	76¢	$102	+$23	11-05 11:26
Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes		+125	$83	65¢	$81	-$2	11-04 23:14
Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	—	+84	$62	79¢	$67	+$4	11-04 13:54
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes		+64	$55	88¢	$57	+$1	11-05 17:15
amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	—	+34	$30	92¢	$32	+$2	11-03 22:19
Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes		+15	$6	36¢	$5	-$1	11-05 22:40
Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes		+2	$0	50¢	$1	+$1	11-05 13:19

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lly quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 7pt06	85	$2.8K	1,853	1,753	+100	Yes	+$362	02-04 11:52
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	21	$1.8K	1,296	1,296	+0	Knicks	+$797	05-20 02:48
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	5	$1.6K	1,034	1,034	+0	Yes	+$479	05-14 21:18
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	47	$1.3K	894	861	+32	Yes	+$21	09-09 20:36
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9	$1.1K	1,807	350	+1,457	Yes	+$891	06-14 00:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$1.1K	683	683	+0	Yes	+$267	03-01 00:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	11	$966	1,125	1,125	+0	open	—	10-28 10:05
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	23	$843	817	170	+646	Yes	+$118	04-30 10:45
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	25	$627	550	471	+79	Yes	+$79	10-13 11:34
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	16	$608	1,460	0	+1,460	Spurs	-$608	06-09 02:58
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?	14	$581	356	294	+61	Yes	-$10	05-20 07:38
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	11	$531	477	354	+123	Yes	+$123	09-24 20:16
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	7	$494	837	0	+837	Knicks	+$343	05-24 02:05
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	2	$424	225	225	+0	Gaethje	+$24	01-25 06:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$413	500	373	+127	No	-$47	01-15 00:48
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$400	247	190	+57	Yes	+$5	06-02 21:01
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?	18	$391	734	310	+424	No	-$203	10-09 01:30
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	10	$379	327	331	-5	No	+$245	04-21 20:34
chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 09 2026 0pt36	50	$378	553	0	+553	No	-$378	08-29 17:36
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$377	243	243	+0	Knicks	+$107	05-26 01:52
casy quarterly earnings gaap eps 09 08 2026 6pt75	13	$374	278	157	+120	Yes	+$17	08-31 23:02
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	12	$373	1,029	0	+1,029	Knicks	+$656	06-06 02:31
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$369	448	0	+448	Yes	+$79	08-27 11:06
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	21	$362	661	565	+97	No	+$318	05-21 11:43
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	8	$357	276	276	+0	Yes	+$150	04-22 20:09
lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 17 2026 4pt78	15	$355	177	227	-50	Yes	+$17	03-16 14:17
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	19	$334	1,878	451	+1,426	No	-$238	05-06 10:51
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	9	$333	199	199	+0	Yes	+$65	02-09 03:43
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	10	$316	1,005	0	+1,005	Knicks	+$689	06-04 02:21
cme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt74	6	$294	158	158	+0	Yes	+$19	02-04 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 23:05:54	Will Dolby (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x520006…
11-05 22:50:55	Will Dolby (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x870de3…
11-05 22:40:07	Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xf0823c…
11-05 22:39:31	Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x4f1723…
11-05 21:37:22	Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xd744a2…
11-05 21:02:40	Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	140	38¢	$53	0xbb3942…
11-05 21:01:24	Will Akamai (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x0b2042…
11-05 17:20:31	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x695c2f…
11-05 17:15:52	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x66162e…
11-05 13:19:22	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x6e4f48…
11-05 13:01:22	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x2e1df2…
11-05 11:26:21	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6c37d3…
11-05 11:01:21	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x1409d0…
11-05 07:15:06	Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x46ce12…
11-05 06:54:40	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x00d3ac…
11-05 05:00:19	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x4d74e1…
11-05 03:35:12	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0x972775…
11-04 23:14:51	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0x06799a…
11-04 21:34:21	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x70fe4b…
11-04 21:14:09	Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	93	60¢	$56	0xc482bb…
11-04 21:05:03	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x7a0ab5…
11-04 21:02:51	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x37dc6f…
11-04 21:01:52	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0x94d695…
11-04 21:00:55	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$4	0x6438cb…
11-04 17:20:51	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x9ea9d8…
11-04 14:25:51	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xc17c0a…
11-04 14:02:55	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x01cfe9…
11-04 13:54:03	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	75¢	$24	0x7a571f…
11-04 13:37:25	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xf1d935…
11-04 13:35:57	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x7cb09a…
11-04 13:34:25	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xdbf0b0…
11-04 13:32:55	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3f315b…
11-04 12:54:13	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x28edfc…
11-04 11:57:12	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0xfae8eb…
11-04 06:23:24	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x21b71f…
11-04 05:11:49	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xbbcbad…
11-04 04:41:48	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xb82600…
11-04 04:40:24	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x857ab8…
11-04 03:40:46	wynn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 05 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	75	21¢	$16	0x4a2ba7…
11-04 02:23:15	tsn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 16 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x80bc72…
11-04 01:17:55	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	38¢	$8	0x3f09f1…
11-04 01:16:21	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	48	65¢	$31	0xa1bdff…
11-03 23:32:24	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	35¢	$2	0x038198…
11-03 22:19:37	amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	BUY	0	87¢	$0	0x63c7bb…
11-03 22:19:36	amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	BUY	9	87¢	$8	0xbcb5d1…
11-03 22:19:36	amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x397001…
11-03 22:19:36	amat quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 12 2026 4pt13	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x166793…
11-03 22:01:09	hd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 17 2026 3pt95	Yes	BUY	34	69¢	$24	0x77bfbe…
11-03 21:28:03	oxy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 09 2026 1pt48	Yes	BUY	0	79¢	$0	0x5a5576…
11-03 21:27:57	oxy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 09 2026 1pt48	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xf16f72…
11-03 21:16:18	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	72	99¢	$72	0x37862d…
11-03 18:40:19	mchp quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 05 2026 0pt95	Yes	BUY	9	82¢	$7	0x359f7c…
11-03 18:34:19	nvda quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 17 2026 2pt53	Yes	BUY	8	83¢	$7	0x0fd7bd…
11-03 15:25:21	Will Akamai (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	67¢	$12	0x0583f0…
11-03 15:24:33	Will Akamai (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	79¢	$13	0xb41f34…
11-03 13:47:52	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x603256…
11-03 12:52:16	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xcafb7d…
11-03 12:01:22	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x947619…
11-03 12:01:16	Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	18	71¢	$13	0xc928c5…
11-03 11:29:46	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	68¢	$4	0x6b8f42…
11-03 10:33:43	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	26	40¢	$10	0x8380e8…
11-03 10:33:42	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	2	62¢	$1	0x907d5b…
11-03 10:33:40	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xd44821…
11-03 10:33:40	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	65¢	$4	0x06c57e…
11-03 09:46:16	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	24	45¢	$11	0xc999d9…
11-03 07:32:31	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	10	42¢	$4	0xee4ce4…
11-03 07:31:33	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x720e1b…
11-03 06:53:46	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	72¢	$5	0x5ea248…
11-03 05:28:01	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	19	66¢	$13	0x4ded44…
11-03 05:10:16	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	48¢	$16	0xa50b2e…
11-03 05:08:46	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	31	57¢	$18	0x2dd2e4…
11-03 03:13:16	Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	27	90¢	$25	0x6d99e8…
11-03 03:10:22	Will IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	25	93¢	$24	0xcc8315…
11-03 02:41:51	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x352c30…
11-02 21:52:31	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	77	55¢	$42	0xbae916…
11-02 19:33:07	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	39¢	$4	0xad40b1…
11-02 19:30:07	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x862c6e…
11-02 19:29:31	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0x4fb9cc…
11-02 18:46:36	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	101	42¢	$42	0x0c2198…
11-02 17:42:01	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	74	83¢	$62	0x6a645c…
11-02 17:10:31	Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0x023129…
11-02 17:07:07	Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	38¢	$19	0xf6a301…
11-02 16:15:00	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	74	35¢	$26	0xf75bc5…
11-02 15:32:16	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	50¢	$9	0xafe6bf…
11-02 15:32:13	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x6c6c84…
11-02 14:13:36	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$4	0x65db60…
11-02 14:00:07	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x46f673…
11-02 13:06:06	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	51	49¢	$25	0xc32e6c…
11-02 13:04:51	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xc38a86…
11-02 12:08:27	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	50¢	$8	0x47b670…
11-02 11:01:30	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	66	100¢	$66	0x3f3103…
11-02 09:43:30	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x531067…
11-02 09:12:00	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	18	44¢	$8	0x9cd096…
11-02 09:12:00	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	18	44¢	$8	0x6566cf…
11-02 09:11:25	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	17	48¢	$8	0xfa9db0…
11-02 07:16:46	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x88bcdf…
11-02 07:13:36	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	81	45¢	$37	0xd588f1…
11-02 07:13:21	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x0ee345…
11-02 03:55:28	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	79	82¢	$65	0x5ff43f…
11-01 18:21:03	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x038ac7…