Careful-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5.15K

Unrealized P&L

-$46

Hit rate

78.6%

Resolved

700

Trades

3,600

lifetime

Volume

$67.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$19

Open exposure

$137

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-12 21:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 159 days

Categories

Other

81% 65% +$623

Sports

14% 75% +$4,279

Politics

5% 62% +$230

Crypto

0% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

74 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+134	$79	29¢	$39	-$40	11-05 11:26
Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+40	$27	62¢	$25	-$2	11-12 03:18
Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+23	$18	74¢	$17	-$1	11-10 20:10
Will Nvidia (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+15	$13	93¢	$14	+$1	11-07 19:59
Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+17	$14	75¢	$13	-$1	11-07 04:53
Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+18	$10	64¢	$11	+$2	11-07 09:23
Will Dolby (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+12	$10	75¢	$9	$0	11-05 23:05
Will Viking (VIK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+13	$8	62¢	$8	+$1	11-07 09:14
Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	+15	$6	4¢	$1	-$5	11-05 22:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lly quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 7pt06	85	$2.8K	1,853	1,753	+100	Yes	+$362	02-04 11:52
Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	15	$1.9K	1,159	1,159	+0	Yes	+$461	11-12 14:10
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	21	$1.8K	1,296	1,296	+0	Knicks	+$797	05-20 02:48
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	5	$1.6K	1,034	1,034	+0	Yes	+$479	05-14 21:18
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	47	$1.3K	894	861	+32	Yes	+$21	09-09 20:36
Giants vs. Eagles	9	$1.3K	766	766	+0	Giants	+$276	11-08 21:22
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9	$1.1K	1,807	350	+1,457	Yes	+$891	06-14 00:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$1.1K	683	683	+0	Yes	+$267	03-01 00:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	11	$966	1,125	1,125	+0	open	—	10-28 10:05
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	23	$843	817	170	+646	Yes	+$118	04-30 10:45
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	25	$627	550	471	+79	Yes	+$79	10-13 11:34
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	16	$608	1,460	0	+1,460	Spurs	-$608	06-09 02:58
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?	14	$581	356	294	+61	Yes	-$10	05-20 07:38
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	11	$531	477	354	+123	Yes	+$123	09-24 20:16
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	7	$494	837	0	+837	Knicks	+$343	05-24 02:05
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	2	$424	225	225	+0	Gaethje	+$24	01-25 06:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$413	500	373	+127	No	-$47	01-15 00:48
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$400	247	190	+57	Yes	+$5	06-02 21:01
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?	18	$391	734	310	+424	No	-$203	10-09 01:30
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	10	$379	327	331	-5	No	+$245	04-21 20:34
chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 09 2026 0pt36	50	$378	553	0	+553	No	-$378	08-29 17:36
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$377	243	243	+0	Knicks	+$107	05-26 01:52
casy quarterly earnings gaap eps 09 08 2026 6pt75	13	$374	278	157	+120	Yes	+$17	08-31 23:02
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	12	$373	1,029	0	+1,029	Knicks	+$656	06-06 02:31
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$369	448	0	+448	Yes	+$79	08-27 11:06
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	21	$362	661	565	+97	No	+$318	05-21 11:43
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	8	$357	276	276	+0	Yes	+$150	04-22 20:09
lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 17 2026 4pt78	15	$355	177	227	-50	Yes	+$17	03-16 14:17
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	19	$334	1,878	451	+1,426	No	-$238	05-06 10:51
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	9	$333	199	199	+0	Yes	+$65	02-09 03:43

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-12 21:09:13	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x8ee33d…
11-12 14:10:16	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,159	100¢	$1,158	0xd6654d…
11-12 14:00:12	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	12	78¢	$9	0xb8105c…
11-12 03:19:15	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0x90a91c…
11-12 03:18:10	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	12	56¢	$7	0x77c618…
11-12 03:18:10	Will Applied Materials (AMAT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	81¢	$5	0x5ee808…
11-12 03:17:39	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 11, 2026?	No	BUY	90	78¢	$70	0xe823c7…
11-12 00:24:13	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0xae0b24…
11-12 00:14:12	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0x380fc4…
11-12 00:00:10	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	38	61¢	$23	0x15ad26…
11-11 23:56:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	73¢	$26	0x1c5dbe…
11-11 23:51:16	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	146	68¢	$99	0xf8e5b6…
11-11 23:48:06	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	76	71¢	$54	0x41a353…
11-11 23:41:12	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	69¢	$48	0x8148d5…
11-11 23:30:10	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	61¢	$4	0x147df7…
11-11 23:29:39	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	41	60¢	$25	0x60c6a0…
11-11 23:29:04	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0xb8ae10…
11-11 23:29:04	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	61¢	$61	0x905203…
11-11 23:27:01	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	204	58¢	$118	0x6cb204…
11-11 23:14:01	Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by November 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	46¢	$17	0x833b6e…
11-11 23:03:37	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$6	0xc5784d…
11-11 23:03:22	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	201	55¢	$110	0xbddbea…
11-11 23:01:22	jensen huang announced resignation or removal by november 13 2026	Yes	BUY	192	52¢	$100	0x0aece2…
11-10 20:10:37	Will Amer Sports (AS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	23	80¢	$18	0x614476…
11-10 13:47:21	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xafeee7…
11-09 11:54:03	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	40	99¢	$40	0xf06d38…
11-09 08:46:15	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xa0dc1c…
11-09 03:49:03	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x76324d…
11-08 21:22:54	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	SELL	766	100¢	$765	0xc994f0…
11-08 21:04:31	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0x357f0d…
11-08 21:00:18	Spread: Giants (-10.5)	Giants	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0xf506c5…
11-08 20:55:28	Spread: Giants (-10.5)	Giants	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xff41dc…
11-08 20:55:27	Spread: Giants (-10.5)	Giants	BUY	139	69¢	$96	0xf2af2b…
11-08 20:33:10	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	70	86¢	$60	0x6a8174…
11-08 20:33:01	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	8	64¢	$5	0xd1e626…
11-08 20:31:37	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	62	80¢	$50	0xf1518a…
11-08 19:55:31	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0xb763d3…
11-08 19:54:45	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	112	51¢	$57	0x6e8847…
11-08 18:55:30	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	14	64¢	$9	0xb051cb…
11-08 18:40:21	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x9f63f2…
11-08 18:36:49	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	75	56¢	$42	0xdb3aaa…
11-08 18:25:30	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	13	64¢	$8	0x08409c…
11-08 18:24:37	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	137	73¢	$100	0xd10029…
11-08 18:10:12	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	52	58¢	$30	0xdf3277…
11-08 18:07:39	Giants vs. Eagles	Giants	BUY	164	61¢	$100	0x4d7748…
11-08 10:15:00	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	80	70¢	$56	0xbbf9a0…
11-07 19:59:07	Will Nvidia (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x8ea527…
11-07 09:23:57	Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0xe222c3…
11-07 09:16:27	Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x79aaef…
11-07 09:14:58	Will Viking (VIK) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	57¢	$8	0x4c16dd…
11-07 09:11:57	Will La-Z-Boy (LZB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	55¢	$3	0x16071d…
11-07 05:25:25	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	10	67¢	$6	0xabfa66…
11-07 05:24:07	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x6a2d58…
11-07 04:53:39	Will AECOM (ACM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	17	78¢	$14	0xd766fa…
11-06 13:37:40	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	37	50¢	$19	0x0ffa35…
11-06 13:23:55	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	33	59¢	$20	0xfba335…
11-06 10:59:43	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0x4ba815…
11-06 10:05:54	Will Powell Industries (POWL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	51¢	$3	0xb99338…
11-06 09:50:54	Will Virgin Galactic (SPCE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	70¢	$6	0x830e8f…
11-06 09:25:52	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	80¢	$40	0xb31ad9…
11-05 23:05:54	Will Dolby (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x520006…
11-05 22:50:55	Will Dolby (DLB) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0x870de3…
11-05 22:40:07	Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	40¢	$3	0xf0823c…
11-05 22:39:31	Will Getty Images (GETY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	42¢	$3	0x4f1723…
11-05 21:37:22	Will Con Edison (ED) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0xd744a2…
11-05 21:02:40	Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	140	38¢	$53	0xbb3942…
11-05 21:01:24	Will Akamai (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x0b2042…
11-05 17:20:31	Will Disney (DIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	85¢	$27	0x695c2f…
11-05 17:15:52	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0x66162e…
11-05 13:19:22	Will The Trade Desk (TTD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x6e4f48…
11-05 13:01:22	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x2e1df2…
11-05 11:26:21	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	58¢	$6	0x6c37d3…
11-05 11:01:21	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	85	99¢	$84	0x1409d0…
11-05 07:15:06	Will Microchip Technology (MCHP) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	83¢	$7	0x46ce12…
11-05 06:54:40	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0x00d3ac…
11-05 05:00:19	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0x4d74e1…
11-05 03:35:12	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	51	86¢	$44	0x972775…
11-04 23:14:51	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	7	65¢	$4	0x06799a…
11-04 21:34:21	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x70fe4b…
11-04 21:14:09	Will MetLife (MET) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	93	60¢	$56	0xc482bb…
11-04 21:05:03	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	18	40¢	$7	0x7a0ab5…
11-04 21:02:51	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	22	99¢	$22	0x37dc6f…
11-04 21:01:52	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0x94d695…
11-04 21:00:55	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	52¢	$4	0x6438cb…
11-04 17:20:51	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	15	53¢	$8	0x9ea9d8…
11-04 14:25:51	Will Home Depot (HD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0xc17c0a…
11-04 14:02:55	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	41¢	$5	0x01cfe9…
11-04 13:54:03	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	32	75¢	$24	0x7a571f…
11-04 13:37:25	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0xf1d935…
11-04 13:35:57	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x7cb09a…
11-04 13:34:25	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$4	0xdbf0b0…
11-04 13:32:55	Will Ralph Lauren (RL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3f315b…
11-04 12:54:13	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x28edfc…
11-04 11:57:12	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	24	0¢	$0	0xfae8eb…
11-04 06:23:24	Will Tyson Foods (TSN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	61¢	$9	0x21b71f…
11-04 05:11:49	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	47¢	$9	0xbbcbad…
11-04 04:41:48	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	13	27¢	$4	0xb82600…
11-04 04:40:24	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	26¢	$4	0x857ab8…
11-04 03:40:46	wynn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 05 2026 0pt72	Yes	BUY	75	21¢	$16	0x4a2ba7…
11-04 02:23:15	tsn quarterly earnings nongaap eps 11 16 2026 0pt60	Yes	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x80bc72…