Careful-Toughguy — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$334

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

58.0%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

157

3,434 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$3.54K

$62.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-09

last 11-02 03:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 151 days

Categories

Other

81% 63% -$12

Sports

13% 77% +$4,102

Politics

5% 62% +$230

Crypto

0% 100% +$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 40 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
lly quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 7pt06	85	$2.8K	1,853	1,753	+100	Yes	+$362	02-04 11:52
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	21	$1.8K	1,296	1,296	+0	Knicks	+$797	05-20 02:48
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?	5	$1.6K	1,034	1,034	+0	Yes	+$479	05-14 21:18
Will American Eagle Outfitters (AEO) beat quarterly earnings?	47	$1.3K	894	861	+32	Yes	+$21	09-09 20:36
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	9	$1.1K	1,807	350	+1,457	Yes	+$891	06-14 00:21
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	20	$1.1K	683	683	+0	Yes	+$267	03-01 00:30
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	11	$966	1,125	1,125	+0	open	—	10-28 10:05
Will Eli Lilly and Co (LLY) beat quarterly earnings?	23	$843	817	170	+646	Yes	+$118	04-30 10:45
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	25	$627	550	471	+79	Yes	+$79	10-13 11:34
nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	16	$608	1,460	0	+1,460	Spurs	-$608	06-09 02:58
Will Lowe's (LOW) beat quarterly earnings?	14	$581	356	294	+61	Yes	-$10	05-20 07:38
Will Costco (COST) beat quarterly earnings?	11	$531	477	354	+123	Yes	+$123	09-24 20:16
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	7	$494	837	0	+837	Knicks	+$343	05-24 02:05
ufc jus3 pad 2026 01 24	2	$424	225	225	+0	Gaethje	+$24	01-25 06:05
us strikes iran by january 14 2026 913	4	$413	500	373	+127	No	-$47	01-15 00:48
Will CrowdStrike Holdings (CRWD) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$400	247	190	+57	Yes	+$5	06-02 21:01
Will Delta Air Lines (DAL) beat quarterly earnings?	18	$391	734	310	+424	No	-$203	10-09 01:30
ibkr quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 21 2026 0pt60	10	$379	327	331	-5	No	+$245	04-21 20:34
chwy quarterly earnings nongaap eps 09 09 2026 0pt36	50	$378	553	0	+553	No	-$378	08-29 17:36
Knicks vs. Cavaliers	5	$377	243	243	+0	Knicks	+$107	05-26 01:52
casy quarterly earnings gaap eps 09 08 2026 6pt75	13	$374	278	157	+120	Yes	+$17	08-31 23:02
nba nyk sas 2026 06 05	12	$373	1,029	0	+1,029	Knicks	+$656	06-06 02:31
Will Marvell Tech (MRVL) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$369	448	0	+448	Yes	+$79	08-27 11:06
Will Walmart (WMT) beat quarterly earnings?	21	$362	661	565	+97	No	+$318	05-21 11:43
tsla quarterly earnings nongaap eps 04 22 2026 0pt39	8	$357	276	276	+0	Yes	+$150	04-22 20:09
lulu quarterly earnings gaap eps 03 17 2026 4pt78	15	$355	177	227	-50	Yes	+$17	03-16 14:17
Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	19	$334	1,878	451	+1,426	No	-$238	05-06 10:51
will kenneth walker iii win the super bowl lx mvp	9	$333	199	199	+0	Yes	+$65	02-09 03:43
nba nyk sas 2026 06 03	10	$316	1,005	0	+1,005	Knicks	+$689	06-04 02:21
cme quarterly earnings nongaap eps 02 04 2026 2pt74	6	$294	158	158	+0	Yes	+$19	02-04 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-02 03:55:28	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	79	82¢	$65	0x5ff43f…
11-01 18:21:03	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x038ac7…
11-01 18:19:28	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	84	71¢	$59	0xbefe0f…
11-01 17:18:01	Will Williams (WMB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	38¢	$0	0x4cad31…
11-01 16:26:57	Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0x082481…
11-01 16:25:31	Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	54¢	$6	0xbe9a24…
11-01 16:22:27	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x1a6bb4…
10-31 21:19:30	Will Marathon Petroleum (MPC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	71¢	$4	0x081963…
10-31 21:13:25	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x152950…
10-31 16:36:00	Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$8	0x1b08bf…
10-31 16:34:31	Will Expedia (EXPE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	67	79¢	$53	0xd87189…
10-31 12:09:51	Will Clorox (CLX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	33	62¢	$20	0x49a10e…
10-31 08:39:36	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	74¢	$0	0x039258…
10-31 07:25:28	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	65	56¢	$36	0xb0c52a…
10-31 07:23:55	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	6	56¢	$3	0x9d050f…
10-30 20:28:15	Will Akamai (AKAM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	70¢	$35	0x74b4bb…
10-30 17:49:22	Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	24	69¢	$17	0xb83ced…
10-30 16:07:24	Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	55¢	$9	0x492f47…
10-30 16:02:33	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	76¢	$6	0xec32d3…
10-30 15:59:43	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x086807…
10-30 14:58:22	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	15	81¢	$13	0x714750…
10-30 14:52:04	Will ON Semiconductor (ON) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	95	72¢	$68	0x1613f1…
10-30 14:28:22	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	50	88¢	$44	0xcb7ec8…
10-30 14:20:54	Will Marriott (MAR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xfae46d…
10-30 13:56:52	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	31	89¢	$28	0x174c48…
10-30 12:23:31	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x1ad68d…
10-30 11:19:22	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	21	47¢	$10	0xabf40e…
10-30 11:18:33	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0x4bb94f…
10-30 10:16:22	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x6060b2…
10-30 07:39:52	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x5a83e5…
10-30 03:42:58	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0xe27e8a…
10-30 03:32:15	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	67¢	$7	0x59acac…
10-30 02:50:04	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	73¢	$4	0x8b64a7…
10-29 23:16:21	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	5	85¢	$5	0x7701d4…
10-29 23:14:30	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0xee793a…
10-29 23:12:42	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	83¢	$5	0x73da58…
10-29 22:21:16	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	76¢	$0	0xa14273…
10-29 22:21:15	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	82¢	$18	0x8d4025…
10-29 22:21:15	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x357614…
10-29 22:01:21	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	9	85¢	$8	0x98cb22…
10-29 21:37:22	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	29	60¢	$17	0x7db1a7…
10-29 21:22:22	Will Cigna (CI) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	50¢	$7	0x3d3564…
10-29 20:58:19	Will Cboe (CBOE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	79	91¢	$72	0xe62db2…
10-29 17:32:26	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	72¢	$8	0x5531fc…
10-29 17:27:49	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	16	61¢	$9	0x705ac5…
10-29 16:02:19	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	88¢	$6	0x63c58c…
10-29 15:55:20	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	60¢	$13	0x922e8b…
10-29 15:34:17	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0x4e6e48…
10-29 15:34:14	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	63¢	$3	0xca64ba…
10-29 14:02:19	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	20	68¢	$14	0xaeb1ac…
10-29 13:50:34	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xe32bfd…
10-29 13:39:08	Will Qualcomm (QCOM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xc79782…
10-29 13:08:19	Will Monster Beverage (MNST) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	43	51¢	$22	0xe74c5c…
10-29 12:51:49	Will Yum! Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x4f9f07…
10-29 11:39:50	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$8	0xc4ae6f…
10-29 11:20:19	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0x7a93da…
10-29 04:03:56	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	28	81¢	$23	0xd83937…
10-29 04:03:56	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	78¢	$8	0xc36cec…
10-29 04:01:55	Will Aptiv (APTV) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0xd2ab81…
10-29 04:01:34	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xedffe7…
10-29 03:09:34	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	62¢	$4	0x671a73…
10-29 02:31:37	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	52¢	$7	0xf3e33a…
10-29 02:29:41	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	44¢	$5	0xbd9f75…
10-29 02:10:59	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xa83d70…
10-29 01:57:56	Will Uber (UBER) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	62	23¢	$14	0x38eef8…
10-29 01:51:49	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	1	46¢	$1	0x7437ae…
10-29 01:50:19	Will DoorDash (DASH) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	0	45¢	$0	0xe73582…
10-29 01:48:56	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	28	72¢	$20	0x59ddb8…
10-29 01:05:16	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	61	58¢	$35	0x80ce04…
10-29 00:03:49	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	88¢	$5	0x2c5d6e…
10-28 23:44:19	Will KKR (KKR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	12	78¢	$9	0x4b1957…
10-28 23:27:58	Will Pfizer (PFE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xe2ad27…
10-28 22:21:49	Will Charles River Laboratories (CRL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	84¢	$17	0x8f5cbc…
10-28 22:18:59	Will TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x2f73f2…
10-28 22:11:20	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	24	66¢	$16	0x82d213…
10-28 22:06:50	Will Apple (AAPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	21	85¢	$18	0x56cf8e…
10-28 22:03:50	Will Franklin Resources (BEN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x9e0fa9…
10-28 21:55:05	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	37	76¢	$28	0x82c97f…
10-28 21:55:05	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x0eadf2…
10-28 21:53:32	Will Occidental Petroleum (OXY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	110	68¢	$75	0xc47caa…
10-28 21:32:17	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	37	68¢	$25	0x8a6bcc…
10-28 21:16:01	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	16	54¢	$9	0x41799f…
10-28 20:57:50	Will Palantir (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	25	80¢	$20	0xd4a4a1…
10-28 20:30:59	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x3a1859…
10-28 20:30:46	Will O'Reilly (ORLY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0xa4d4f5…
10-28 20:14:29	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xfa8840…
10-28 20:11:29	Will FIS (FIS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	17	54¢	$9	0x635be0…
10-28 20:10:04	Will Chipotle (CMG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	26	62¢	$16	0xd62398…
10-28 20:00:47	Will T-Mobile (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0x35cfac…
10-28 19:00:50	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	22	73¢	$16	0x81fb38…
10-28 18:58:01	Will AMD (AMD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	50	71¢	$36	0xd4d912…
10-28 17:54:47	Will News Corp (NWSA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	29	71¢	$21	0x1f609b…
10-28 17:20:04	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	84	34¢	$28	0xa4e9c1…
10-28 17:19:58	Will McDonald's (MCD) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xd10443…
10-28 15:24:59	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xef6764…
10-28 15:23:29	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	33	73¢	$24	0xce863a…
10-28 15:06:59	Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0x33442a…
10-28 14:45:34	Will Estée Lauder (EL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x610c57…
10-28 13:50:16	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	SELL	14	62¢	$9	0x2e25ac…
10-28 13:48:56	Will Amazon (AMZN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xb816d5…