Neat-Yarmulke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$341

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

1.3%

Resolved

Trades

3,012

lifetime

Volume

$1.61M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$534

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 08-17 20:16

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

23% — —

Sports

18% 33% $-341

Crypto

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 152 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	176	$254.9K	156,729	107,417	+49,312	open	—	03-04 10:20
netanyahu out by march 31 854	102	$194.0K	93,142	104,216	-11,073	open	—	04-01 23:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	67	$102.9K	52,806	52,806	+0	open	—	03-01 20:03
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	5	$66.7K	51,161	51,161	+0	open	—	07-09 17:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	21	$65.2K	55,590	10,000	+45,590	open	—	04-08 18:18
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$64.9K	65,087	0	+65,087	open	—	04-30 21:01
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	39	$60.7K	41,520	21,262	+20,258	open	—	03-12 23:58
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	9	$58.3K	58,755	0	+58,755	open	—	06-02 21:26
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$38.8K	21,703	18,964	+2,738	open	—	03-04 10:23
will alexandria ocasio cortez be named in newly released epstein files by february 28	17	$37.6K	25,881	13,707	+12,175	open	—	03-01 00:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	57	$32.9K	40,099	23,241	+16,859	open	—	02-28 05:21
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	66	$30.8K	10,856	20,945	-10,089	open	—	03-16 22:01
ufc mar12 tfortu 2026 03 28	12	$28.6K	28,974	0	+28,974	open	—	03-28 23:11
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	25	$23.9K	24,566	1,000	+23,566	open	—	08-04 22:29
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	6	$22.7K	22,091	1,110	+20,981	open	—	02-20 08:09
will axiom be accused of insider trading	37	$22.3K	21,872	17,270	+4,601	open	—	02-26 14:35
nhl las car 2026 06 04	152	$21.7K	46,859	0	+46,859	open	—	06-05 03:01
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	8	$20.6K	19,860	1,129	+18,732	open	—	02-19 21:55
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$20.4K	20,850	0	+20,850	open	—	02-22 16:01
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	26	$18.7K	17,616	1,340	+16,276	open	—	02-18 21:45
ufc ale14 die4 2026 01 31	101	$18.5K	31,763	0	+31,763	open	—	02-01 03:36
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	3	$17.7K	11,219	11,219	+0	open	—	08-02 03:49
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	130	$17.6K	14,352	13,000	+1,352	open	—	03-08 04:58
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	21	$17.2K	17,576	0	+17,576	open	—	02-24 08:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	21	$15.8K	9,367	9,367	+0	open	—	03-01 21:26
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	11	$13.7K	14,015	0	+14,015	open	—	02-23 18:27
ufc ant12 ser2 2026 02 21	32	$13.4K	6,846	6,846	+0	open	—	02-22 02:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	81	$12.0K	33,275	20,591	+12,684	open	—	05-24 21:24
2026 winter olympics ski halfpipe womens cassie sharpe can	3	$10.9K	10,251	1,000	+9,251	open	—	02-22 15:28
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$10.3K	6,193	6,193	+0	open	—	03-03 01:23

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-17 20:16:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	26	95¢	$24	0x98a752…
08-16 19:00:25	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0xd97fa9…
08-15 05:52:40	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0x3b7609…
08-14 14:12:31	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	5	95¢	$4	0xa93ca5…
08-14 06:29:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x77b019…
08-14 00:50:01	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	150	95¢	$142	0x8e045f…
08-14 00:44:42	atp shelton nakashi 2026 08 13	Ben Shelton	BUY	1,111	88¢	$978	0x32cd35…
08-14 00:44:01	atp shelton nakashi 2026 08 13	Brandon Nakashima	BUY	1,111	13¢	$144	0x5aae5f…
08-12 22:19:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x8a8505…
08-12 15:12:52	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x779dc9…
08-11 21:13:01	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x184bb2…
08-10 07:58:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,700	87¢	$1,479	0xfefc8e…
08-04 22:29:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	313	94¢	$294	0x98a2cf…
08-04 21:57:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x372e63…
08-04 20:17:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xee2183…
08-04 19:23:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0xb78436…
08-04 19:22:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10,420	94¢	$9,795	0x13564b…
08-04 19:22:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xaed5c5…
08-04 19:07:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	533	94¢	$501	0x13dc26…
08-04 18:34:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x03bfc9…
08-04 16:43:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x25f0be…
08-04 16:07:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdf4c26…
08-04 13:50:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,820	94¢	$1,710	0x7f1136…
08-04 13:40:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xde053f…
08-04 13:07:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xf29a48…
08-04 13:01:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x5223cc…
08-04 12:17:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	274	94¢	$258	0x0f17f6…
08-04 09:22:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,255	94¢	$1,180	0xd7882e…
08-04 08:54:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe587df…
08-04 08:09:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	335	94¢	$315	0xd5a0cf…
08-04 08:00:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0xb476a0…
08-04 03:38:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xfa92e4…
08-04 03:06:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	393	94¢	$369	0x1ecad0…
08-03 23:34:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	658	94¢	$618	0x5c4755…
08-03 19:06:09	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	658	95¢	$627	0xbf65e4…
08-02 22:12:44	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x8fac30…
08-02 20:23:42	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdb6897…
08-02 20:21:02	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x87d182…
08-02 20:16:18	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5188ff…
08-02 19:57:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa39bfe…
08-02 19:57:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7c1cbb…
08-02 19:48:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb9bc1e…
08-02 18:57:14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7caff…
08-02 18:46:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0a0e3d…
08-02 18:45:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x553aa2…
08-02 18:36:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc476ae…
08-02 18:33:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$101	0xb73efa…
08-02 18:18:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x28689f…
08-02 18:16:00	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x372add…
08-02 17:50:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6612ca…
08-02 17:47:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x1730a8…
08-02 17:43:39	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7d1146…
08-02 17:29:08	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xae9aa5…
08-02 17:25:15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x538889…
08-02 17:16:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x890cb8…
08-02 17:08:00	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x67390a…
08-02 17:04:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x403fe8…
08-02 16:53:41	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x42c138…
08-02 16:52:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	634	96¢	$607	0x77197e…
08-02 16:39:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1aa62a…
08-02 16:33:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd01f49…
08-02 16:18:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa6cdae…
08-02 16:05:14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xade736…
08-02 15:53:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x36a3d4…
08-02 15:29:21	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbc90e9…
08-02 15:28:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x57544d…
08-02 15:05:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1116dd…
08-02 15:01:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x770423…
08-02 14:50:32	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8290ea…
08-02 14:32:08	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x823b74…
08-02 14:24:23	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x4570a8…
08-02 14:16:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xbd462a…
08-02 13:13:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0094a0…
08-02 13:06:47	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc1f91e…
08-02 12:54:11	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa05415…
08-02 12:50:36	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd2df22…
08-02 12:04:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x2cecf8…
08-02 11:58:21	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0881cc…
08-02 11:30:35	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1e0879…
08-02 11:17:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xef8418…
08-02 11:13:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa59c04…
08-02 10:52:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x541073…
08-02 10:33:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x9a14c2…
08-02 10:21:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc152fc…
08-02 10:08:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x25cace…
08-02 10:07:27	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x8a84dd…
08-02 10:00:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xced656…
08-02 09:47:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xcea108…
08-02 09:35:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x85a4df…
08-02 09:31:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	24	96¢	$23	0xc3b82f…
08-02 09:31:02	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa291e1…
08-02 09:08:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe27253…
08-02 09:03:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x69bc3d…
08-02 08:40:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x609167…
08-02 08:11:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xf4845b…
08-02 08:04:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xe27272…
08-02 07:52:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa688a0…
08-02 07:29:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	3,587	96¢	$3,436	0x040622…
08-02 03:49:21	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	11,219	81¢	$9,087	0xacb130…
07-31 19:31:14	uptspt anti cartel operation outside of the uptspt by july 31 20260616215440524	Yes	SELL	1,600	1¢	$18	0xb4f725…