Neat-Yarmulke — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$36.9K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.34K

Hit rate

90.2%

Resolved

161

Trades

3,189

lifetime

Volume

$1.70M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$534

Open exposure

$23.1K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-07

last 11-03 23:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 70 days

Categories

Politics

54% 68% +$14,310

Other

25% 70% -$1,642

Sports

17% 74% +$23,615

Crypto

4% 50% +$572

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+11,111	$10,282	98¢	$10.8K	+$557	07-31 18:16
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	+8,057	$7,733	99¢	$7.9K	+$215	08-20 18:23
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	+3,690	$3,526	99¢	$3.7K	+$125	07-31 18:47
Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	+668	$633	98¢	$652	+$19	08-03 19:06
situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	+0	-$429	94¢	$0	+$429	08-17 20:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	176	$254.9K	156,729	107,417	+49,312	No	+$531	03-04 10:20
netanyahu out by march 31 854	102	$194.0K	93,142	104,216	-11,073	No	+$2,753	04-01 23:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	67	$102.9K	52,806	52,806	+0	Yes	+$1,105	03-01 20:03
ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	5	$66.7K	51,161	51,161	+0	Max Holloway	+$823	07-09 17:32
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	21	$65.2K	55,590	10,000	+45,590	Yes	+$343	04-08 18:18
us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	8	$64.9K	65,087	0	+65,087	No	+$195	04-30 21:01
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	20	$60.7K	61,201	2,446	+58,755	No	+$641	06-02 21:26
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	39	$60.7K	41,520	21,262	+20,258	Yes	+$863	03-12 23:58
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	28	$48.6K	25,566	25,566	+0	open	—	09-11 00:59
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	20	$38.8K	21,703	18,964	+2,738	Yes	+$187	03-04 10:23
will alexandria ocasio cortez be named in newly released epstein files by february 28	17	$37.6K	25,881	13,707	+12,175	No	+$1,882	03-01 00:48
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	57	$32.9K	40,099	23,241	+16,859	Yes	+$15,274	02-28 05:21
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	66	$30.8K	10,856	20,945	-10,089	No	+$188	03-16 22:01
ufc mar12 tfortu 2026 03 28	12	$28.6K	28,974	0	+28,974	Tyrell Fortune	-$9,065	03-28 23:11
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	6	$22.7K	22,091	1,110	+20,981	No	+$417	02-20 08:09
will axiom be accused of insider trading	37	$22.3K	21,872	17,270	+4,601	Yes	-$6,153	02-26 14:35
nhl las car 2026 06 04	152	$21.7K	46,859	0	+46,859	Hurricanes	+$3,903	06-05 03:01
us strikes iran by february 19 2026 992	8	$20.6K	19,860	1,129	+18,732	No	+$335	02-19 21:55
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	2	$20.4K	20,850	0	+20,850	No	+$412	02-22 16:01
Will GameStop acquire eBay?	35	$19.4K	11,466	11,466	+0	open	—	05-08 17:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$18.9K	12,015	12,015	+0	open	—	08-02 03:49
us strikes iran by february 18 2026	26	$18.7K	17,616	1,340	+16,276	No	+$246	02-18 21:45
ufc ale14 die4 2026 01 31	101	$18.5K	31,763	0	+31,763	Volkanovski	+$13,309	02-01 03:36
ufc cha1 max1 2026 03 07	130	$17.6K	14,352	13,000	+1,352	Charles Oliveira	+$368	03-08 04:58
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	21	$17.2K	17,576	0	+17,576	No	+$418	02-24 08:44
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	21	$15.8K	9,367	9,367	+0	No	+$101	03-01 21:26
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	11	$13.7K	14,015	0	+14,015	No	+$312	02-23 18:27
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	16	$13.5K	13,111	2,000	+11,111	open	—	07-31 18:16
ufc ant12 ser2 2026 02 21	32	$13.4K	6,846	6,846	+0	Spivac	+$145	02-22 02:58
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	85	$13.4K	33,275	22,302	+10,973	No	-$4,557	05-24 21:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-03 23:43:19	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	58¢	$15	0x1cab7c…
11-03 23:43:18	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	58¢	$73	0xd27ed6…
11-03 23:33:00	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	777	27¢	$210	0xd3d1e8…
11-03 21:40:28	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	1,000	76¢	$760	0x844f72…
11-03 17:31:25	Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	750	30¢	$225	0x865755…
11-03 17:30:18	Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$460	0x636534…
11-03 17:29:43	Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	No	BUY	250	83¢	$208	0x4394e9…
11-03 17:28:07	Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	64¢	$318	0x91bacd…
11-03 17:27:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	745	78¢	$581	0xf2dab1…
11-03 17:27:36	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	136	78¢	$106	0x3d3680…
11-03 17:23:10	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	9	78¢	$7	0xa7102b…
11-03 17:23:07	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	815	31¢	$253	0x5a7220…
11-03 17:22:24	Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	110	78¢	$85	0x7c723b…
11-03 17:21:40	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	185	31¢	$57	0x846e54…
11-03 17:20:15	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	468	31¢	$145	0x0bf5e7…
09-14 22:38:06	Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	1,111	76¢	$844	0xb637af…
09-11 20:30:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	1,000	80¢	$800	0xcadbbc…
09-11 00:59:27	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	2,067	97¢	$2,005	0xbfe144…
09-10 21:28:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	22,498	97¢	$21,824	0x6ef180…
09-09 19:34:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	1,000	81¢	$810	0xa7931c…
09-03 05:12:18	Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	342	69¢	$236	0x2c3ae5…
08-20 18:23:51	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1,724	97¢	$1,666	0xddc5cf…
08-19 17:29:01	mlb sd nym 2026 08 19	New York Mets	BUY	1,000	43¢	$430	0x330114…
08-17 20:16:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	26	95¢	$24	0x98a752…
08-17 02:14:15	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3,288	0¢	$7	0x5e336e…
08-16 19:00:25	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	3,000	95¢	$2,850	0xd97fa9…
08-16 05:12:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	0¢	$0	0xfd0f07…
08-15 12:27:16	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0xc79926…
08-15 05:52:40	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	59	95¢	$56	0x3b7609…
08-14 22:27:33	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	149	0¢	$1	0xf37d5c…
08-14 22:27:33	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x41139f…
08-14 22:27:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xf0bb16…
08-14 22:27:06	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0x2a70ee…
08-14 22:24:09	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0x77ee01…
08-14 22:12:42	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xd66e31…
08-14 22:12:33	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x2eb227…
08-14 22:03:22	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x502022…
08-14 22:02:37	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0xac77e8…
08-14 22:02:19	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,688	1¢	$8	0x62bc9e…
08-14 22:01:58	Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,132	0¢	$4	0x99a5c7…
08-14 14:12:31	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	5	95¢	$4	0xa93ca5…
08-14 06:29:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	25	95¢	$24	0x77b019…
08-14 00:50:01	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	150	95¢	$142	0x8e045f…
08-14 00:44:42	atp shelton nakashi 2026 08 13	Ben Shelton	BUY	1,111	88¢	$978	0x32cd35…
08-14 00:44:01	atp shelton nakashi 2026 08 13	Brandon Nakashima	BUY	1,111	13¢	$144	0x5aae5f…
08-12 22:19:58	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x8a8505…
08-12 15:12:52	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x779dc9…
08-11 21:13:01	situational awareness announces fund wind down by december 31 2026 20260730183020992	No	SELL	17	95¢	$16	0x184bb2…
08-10 07:58:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896 823	Yes	BUY	1,700	87¢	$1,479	0xfefc8e…
08-04 22:29:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	313	94¢	$294	0x98a2cf…
08-04 21:57:51	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x372e63…
08-04 20:17:32	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xee2183…
08-04 19:23:06	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	96	94¢	$90	0xb78436…
08-04 19:22:33	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10,420	94¢	$9,795	0x13564b…
08-04 19:22:23	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xaed5c5…
08-04 19:07:02	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	533	94¢	$501	0x13dc26…
08-04 18:34:09	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	300	94¢	$282	0x03bfc9…
08-04 16:43:14	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,064	94¢	$1,000	0x25f0be…
08-04 16:07:18	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0xdf4c26…
08-04 13:50:11	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,820	94¢	$1,710	0x7f1136…
08-04 13:40:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	33	94¢	$31	0xde053f…
08-04 13:07:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0xf29a48…
08-04 13:01:44	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0x5223cc…
08-04 12:17:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	274	94¢	$258	0x0f17f6…
08-04 09:22:47	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	1,255	94¢	$1,180	0xd7882e…
08-04 08:54:30	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0xe587df…
08-04 08:09:38	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	335	94¢	$315	0xd5a0cf…
08-04 08:00:54	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	44	94¢	$41	0xb476a0…
08-04 03:38:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	16	94¢	$15	0xfa92e4…
08-04 03:06:39	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	393	94¢	$369	0x1ecad0…
08-03 23:34:36	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	BUY	658	94¢	$618	0x5c4755…
08-03 19:06:09	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	658	95¢	$627	0xbf65e4…
08-02 22:12:44	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	10	95¢	$9	0x8fac30…
08-02 20:23:42	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xdb6897…
08-02 20:21:02	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x87d182…
08-02 20:16:18	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x5188ff…
08-02 19:57:26	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa39bfe…
08-02 19:57:12	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7c1cbb…
08-02 19:48:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xb9bc1e…
08-02 18:57:14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa7caff…
08-02 18:46:38	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x0a0e3d…
08-02 18:45:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x553aa2…
08-02 18:36:20	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xc476ae…
08-02 18:33:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	106	96¢	$101	0xb73efa…
08-02 18:18:44	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x28689f…
08-02 18:16:00	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x372add…
08-02 17:50:24	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x6612ca…
08-02 17:47:50	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	12	96¢	$11	0x1730a8…
08-02 17:43:39	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x7d1146…
08-02 17:29:08	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xae9aa5…
08-02 17:25:15	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x538889…
08-02 17:16:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x890cb8…
08-02 17:08:00	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x67390a…
08-02 17:04:56	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x403fe8…
08-02 16:53:41	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	6	96¢	$6	0x42c138…
08-02 16:52:57	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	634	96¢	$607	0x77197e…
08-02 16:39:59	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x1aa62a…
08-02 16:33:17	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xd01f49…
08-02 16:18:30	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xa6cdae…
08-02 16:05:14	Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xade736…