Kaleidoscopic-Drainage — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

-$6

Hit rate

99.9%

Resolved

108

Trades

138

lifetime

Volume

$1.63K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-01-07

last 10-29 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

60% 97% +$5

Crypto

26% 100% +$2

Politics

15% 83% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (26) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+62	$44	60¢	$37	-$6	10-20 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	5	$132	68	68	-0	No	+$1	08-31 21:43
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	4	$101	51	51	+0	No	+$0	08-13 11:56
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$82	44	44	+0	open	—	10-05 08:02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	1	$57	58	0	+58	Yes	+$0	09-04 04:54
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	1	$57	57	0	+57	No	+$0	09-01 06:38
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$57	58	0	+58	Yes	+$1	09-10 10:54
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	08-08 02:23
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	1	$54	54	0	+54	No	+$0	08-05 09:31
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	2	$52	27	27	+0	open	—	10-18 07:30
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$52	53	0	+53	No	+$1	08-10 14:49
Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$52	52	0	+52	Yes	+$1	08-20 18:35
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	1	$51	52	0	+52	No	+$0	09-21 18:08
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	1	$51	51	0	+51	No	+$0	09-14 16:52
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$50	52	0	+52	No	+$1	08-13 23:57
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	1	$50	50	0	+50	No	+$0	07-31 23:04
will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	1	$49	49	0	+49	No	+$0	06-30 06:45
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$44	62	0	+62	open	—	10-20 09:02
Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	1	$41	41	0	+41	No	+$0	05-31 05:28
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	2	$39	20	20	+0	No	+$0	08-31 19:43
GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$36	36	0	+36	Yes	+$0	07-30 12:36
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	10-29 09:32
Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	1	$33	34	0	+34	No	+$0	05-15 03:32
will dogecoin dip to 0pt05 in february 2026	1	$33	33	0	+33	No	+$0	02-28 05:51
Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	1	$32	33	0	+33	Yes	+$1	10-12 20:26
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August?	2	$26	13	13	+0	No	+$0	08-31 19:45
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$26	26	0	+26	No	+$0	08-18 19:36
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	1	$18	19	0	+19	Yes	+$0	10-02 11:59
pltr above 158 on february 27 2026	1	$15	15	0	+15	No	+$0	02-25 08:42
si above 40 jan 2026	2	$13	13	0	+13	Yes	+$0	01-23 20:48
msft above 345 on february 27 2026	1	$10	10	0	+10	Yes	+$0	02-26 22:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 09:32:26	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x407a25…
10-28 21:31:22	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0x3f6052…
10-24 00:04:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	98	0¢	$0	0xae9738…
10-24 00:04:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	75	0¢	$0	0x3cb217…
10-23 23:58:47	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	Yes	BUY	37	0¢	$0	0x7c07bd…
10-20 09:02:41	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	62	71¢	$44	0x80354c…
10-18 07:30:32	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	27	98¢	$27	0x6349c3…
10-17 14:45:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	7	24¢	$2	0x7fafa1…
10-12 20:26:05	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0xe733cd…
10-08 13:24:02	Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	27	95¢	$26	0x17c6b5…
10-08 01:42:01	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	7	16¢	$1	0x0a5476…
10-05 08:02:44	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	44	93¢	$41	0x2b02e1…
10-02 11:59:00	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	19	98¢	$18	0x3a1805…
10-01 03:01:08	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1ad77f…
09-26 05:30:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	44	92¢	$41	0x5fa617…
09-22 20:35:30	Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 in September?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x000d51…
09-22 14:15:30	Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x062d5e…
09-21 18:08:01	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	52	100¢	$51	0x8ca9bd…
09-14 16:52:07	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0xb5a3b4…
09-12 20:33:34	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x750d6a…
09-10 10:54:51	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0x1bb9e6…
09-04 04:54:30	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	100¢	$57	0x6026b2…
09-01 06:38:39	Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	57	99¢	$57	0xc181c2…
08-31 21:43:52	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xb8a0a1…
08-31 19:45:52	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x0ed199…
08-31 19:43:51	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x8ce8bc…
08-29 07:48:40	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xef2d2a…
08-27 14:39:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	95¢	$8	0x8cabdb…
08-26 20:56:37	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in August?	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xbb2971…
08-26 17:47:49	Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$19	0x7ddcbb…
08-25 15:56:39	Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 21 to August 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$0	0x1560c8…
08-25 14:11:28	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	96¢	$48	0xe790cd…
08-25 08:28:57	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	96¢	$48	0xc39842…
08-24 15:51:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $48 in August?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x85a45a…
08-20 18:35:03	Aligned FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	52	99¢	$52	0xd0fbe9…
08-19 17:13:24	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	97	0¢	$0	0x0d4080…
08-19 16:57:30	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	0¢	$0	0xf8b5f3…
08-18 19:36:01	Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	No	BUY	26	99¢	$26	0xd9fe76…
08-16 07:27:00	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	143	0¢	$0	0xe2dacb…
08-16 04:22:03	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	0¢	$0	0x9a551c…
08-14 00:31:21	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	SELL	125	0¢	$0	0x6264b8…
08-13 23:57:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	52	98¢	$50	0x2cbaff…
08-13 11:56:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xff5d6b…
08-13 11:53:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x08f936…
08-13 11:28:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x43c668…
08-13 03:44:18	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	0¢	$0	0xc83c81…
08-13 02:08:51	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	51	99¢	$51	0xd77a5a…
08-13 01:40:37	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1886d8…
08-12 00:06:36	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xde2052…
08-11 23:52:36	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	0¢	$0	0xab72dd…
08-11 23:13:57	Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	Yes	BUY	218	0¢	$0	0xc78042…
08-10 14:49:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	53	98¢	$52	0x2517e0…
08-10 06:06:49	Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xcb54b7…
08-08 02:23:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0xb68843…
08-05 09:31:21	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	54	100¢	$54	0x9fd01f…
07-31 23:04:17	will bitcoin dip to 60000 in july 20260706151220612 754	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xcf4a9a…
07-30 12:36:29	GRVT FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xb7e726…
07-29 04:36:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $46 in July?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb34d11…
07-29 01:38:54	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,300 in July?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x14e007…
07-26 10:51:18	will wti dip to 60 in july 2026 528 175	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x14d5a4…
07-25 13:33:21	will ethereum reach 2400 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xebd8b0…
07-25 07:02:39	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x56b1fd…
07-23 17:50:03	will bitcoin reach 75k in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x36ed37…
07-23 14:16:30	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x45d9d1…
07-22 11:53:18	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f4d08…
07-21 22:25:39	will spy dip to 680 in july 2026	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x326498…
07-17 19:42:16	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd09fb4…
06-30 06:45:40	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	No	BUY	49	100¢	$49	0x21584e…
06-27 17:00:40	Will Silver (SI) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x7dc518…
05-31 05:28:19	Will Solana dip to $70 in May?	No	BUY	41	100¢	$41	0xf11506…
05-19 13:15:20	Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xca8a89…
05-15 03:32:34	Will Poland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$33	0x7aa031…
05-08 18:19:11	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x7ab5df…
05-08 11:57:01	Will ByteDance have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6c3097…
05-07 22:20:14	Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in May?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xddfc09…
05-07 16:10:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x87e494…
05-07 08:51:41	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xdbea42…
05-06 04:34:14	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x63ae1e…
05-06 03:57:20	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x39c2f8…
05-05 22:18:44	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x8ca0ca…
04-28 02:36:26	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in April?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x303ee7…
04-25 21:49:20	Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x5d8839…
04-24 14:06:06	Will XRP reach $3.00 in April?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x759cab…
04-24 11:01:46	Will XRP reach $2.20 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xa82818…
04-22 18:58:48	Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf8dd48…
04-21 02:22:22	Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xbc6885…
04-21 01:27:28	Will BNB dip to $300 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$2	0xc73c7d…
04-20 01:44:50	Will Moonshot have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x8ec6c4…
04-19 11:32:02	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xb78ae6…
04-18 17:49:20	Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc5d157…
04-18 08:33:18	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$3	0xa91864…
04-17 21:07:26	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in April?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xfa7d7f…
04-16 21:49:14	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0df6c9…
04-16 14:25:46	Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0x89477f…
04-14 10:34:15	Will Ethereum dip to $800 in April?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xace4eb…
04-14 04:25:25	Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x02e2b9…
04-06 07:06:17	Will Alibaba have the second best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	3	99¢	$3	0xc814f0…
03-28 03:24:29	amzn above 180 on march 31 2026	Yes	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x199270…
03-27 00:21:11	will bitcoin reach 105k in march 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6a0c4b…
03-24 15:54:03	will xai have the second best ai model at the end of march 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xedc967…