Frightened-Doubter — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$75

Unrealized P&L

+$7

Hit rate

37.7%

Resolved

Trades

336

lifetime

Volume

$47.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$140

Open exposure

$22

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-11 10:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 50% +$68

Other

21% 75% +$7

Tech

18% — —

Politics

12% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

16 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes		-596	$-30	4¢	$-22	+$7	06-11 08:58

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will claude 5 be released by march 31 2026 243 489 141 184	5	$5.6K	3,580	3,580	+0	open	—	02-19 20:03
btc updown 5m 1772757300	5	$2.4K	2,414	0	+2,414	open	—	03-06 00:40
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	2	$2.3K	2,464	0	+2,464	open	—	03-04 12:53
will iran strike israel on march 9	1	$2.2K	2,257	0	+2,257	open	—	03-09 01:29
will bitcoin dip to 60000 in february 694	1	$1.9K	1,942	0	+1,942	open	—	02-26 17:16
btc updown 5m 1771276500	5	$1.9K	2,120	0	+2,120	open	—	02-16 21:19
btc updown 5m 1771276200	1	$1.8K	1,859	0	+1,859	open	—	02-16 21:15
btc updown 5m 1771273200	8	$1.8K	1,940	0	+1,940	open	—	02-16 20:24
btc updown 5m 1771274100	3	$1.8K	1,917	0	+1,917	open	—	02-16 20:39
SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	1	$1.3K	1,343	0	+1,343	open	—	06-08 20:07
btc updown 5m 1771281600	5	$1.3K	1,410	0	+1,410	open	—	02-16 22:44
btc updown 5m 1771263000	13	$1.3K	1,413	0	+1,413	open	—	02-16 17:34
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 700k 862	3	$1.2K	1,533	500	+1,033	open	—	01-10 01:54
btc updown 5m 1771346700	10	$986	1,186	0	+1,186	open	—	02-17 16:49
spx opens up or down on march 6 2026	19	$908	1,156	0	+1,156	open	—	03-06 12:04
bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	2	$715	737	0	+737	open	—	06-06 13:40
btc updown 5m 1771347300	3	$610	637	0	+637	open	—	02-17 16:58
will the logan paul 1st edition charizard sale price be over 800k 271	4	$600	1,329	170	+1,159	open	—	01-14 01:27
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	1	$600	619	0	+619	open	—	01-07 18:37
btc updown 5m 1771273500	2	$600	610	0	+610	open	—	02-16 20:29
will microstrategy announce holding 740k btc by march 31	1	$550	689	0	+689	open	—	03-05 13:07
btc updown 5m 1771347900	2	$500	543	0	+543	open	—	02-17 17:10
spx up or down on march 19 2026	1	$490	576	0	+576	open	—	03-19 14:31
spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	7	$480	1,200	0	+1,200	open	—	03-20 07:09
spx up or down on march 4 2026	1	$467	475	0	+475	open	—	03-04 18:28
spx up or down on march 16 2026	6	$437	458	0	+458	open	—	03-16 16:24
spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	3	$405	864	0	+864	open	—	03-24 00:05
spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	7	$400	1,000	0	+1,000	open	—	03-19 02:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	6	$378	591	0	+591	Up	$-54	05-09 17:06
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	2	$373	203	203	+0	Up	$-27	05-11 19:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-11 10:23:31	israel closes its airspace by june 11	No	BUY	125	95¢	$119	0x6d42d0…
06-11 08:58:37	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	596	5¢	$30	0x34e954…
06-10 09:18:30	bitcoin above 58k on june 10 2026	Yes	BUY	89	98¢	$87	0x8dbbd5…
06-09 17:49:25	spx up or down on june 9 2026	Down	BUY	55	97¢	$53	0x9da8c1…
06-08 20:07:49	SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,343	100¢	$1,340	0x7ac991…
06-08 08:33:48	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	93	86¢	$80	0x30f778…
06-08 08:30:40	will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	102	97¢	$99	0x9b235a…
06-08 08:30:25	ethereum above 1600 on june 8 2026	Yes	BUY	123	94¢	$116	0xb033c2…
06-08 08:30:10	microstrategy announces 1000 btc purchase june 2 8	Yes	BUY	131	95¢	$124	0x163610…
06-07 20:07:22	will bitcoin dip to 58k on june 7	No	BUY	61	95¢	$58	0x07a460…
06-07 20:06:33	will ethereum dip to 1500 june 1 7 2026	No	BUY	66	97¢	$64	0x7a2ccd…
06-07 13:09:48	bitcoin above 60k on june 7 2026 159	Yes	BUY	134	97¢	$130	0xb73b6a…
06-07 13:09:22	bitcoin up or down on june 7 2026	Up	BUY	157	93¢	$146	0xccb7cb…
06-06 18:17:52	bitcoin above 58k on june 7 2026 356 993	Yes	BUY	173	93¢	$160	0x0110e1…
06-06 18:17:27	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	No	BUY	183	98¢	$180	0x563927…
06-06 13:43:36	starmer out by july 31 2026	No	BUY	317	63¢	$200	0x6b0aca…
06-06 13:43:07	us x iran permanent peace deal by july 31 2026 831 252	No	BUY	203	69¢	$140	0xad6d03…
06-06 13:40:46	bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	No	BUY	515	97¢	$500	0x052f6e…
06-06 13:39:09	bitcoin above 62k on june 6 2026 188	No	BUY	222	97¢	$215	0xc2d542…
06-03 00:24:47	Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 2?	No	BUY	206	96¢	$197	0x22d21e…
05-28 22:28:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xd91bd8…
05-28 22:10:25	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0xf341c8…
05-28 21:57:52	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0xc1e083…
05-28 21:56:09	Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	155	91¢	$141	0xdc94da…
05-28 21:56:07	Will lululemon athletica (LULU) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	145	91¢	$132	0xb09c86…
05-28 21:55:11	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x9147cd…
05-28 21:55:08	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	31	93¢	$29	0x66632a…
05-22 22:40:22	Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	BUY	553	63¢	$350	0xc6a9bb…
05-20 16:47:20	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	200	94¢	$188	0x65f80b…
05-20 15:26:45	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 20?	Down	BUY	158	6¢	$10	0xfe482f…
05-11 19:07:25	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	SELL	203	85¢	$173	0xbcfc73…
05-11 18:45:50	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	203	98¢	$200	0xf2118f…
05-10 20:20:59	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	98	55¢	$54	0xf5f581…
05-10 20:14:34	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xa8428c…
05-10 05:23:19	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	15	40¢	$6	0x50aa50…
05-10 04:31:12	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0x6015fd…
05-10 03:13:49	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	58	40¢	$23	0x8e8d8d…
05-09 18:56:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 11?	Down	BUY	10	40¢	$4	0xd540cb…
05-09 17:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	206	49¢	$100	0xbdc828…
05-09 17:19:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	Up	BUY	212	47¢	$100	0x110ec8…
05-09 17:14:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	BUY	211	47¢	$100	0xa945a0…
05-09 17:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0xae8135…
05-09 17:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	161	31¢	$50	0x3eda8a…
05-09 17:05:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xcc5d5f…
05-09 17:05:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	118	85¢	$100	0x477132…
05-09 17:05:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	117	86¢	$100	0x67e86c…
05-09 17:05:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	89	86¢	$77	0xb4fd4f…
05-09 17:04:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x16eb61…
05-09 17:04:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	Up	BUY	52	97¢	$50	0xb47a86…
05-08 15:50:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Up	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x8cc491…
05-07 16:08:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	79	66¢	$52	0x21a0c6…
05-07 06:44:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	Down	BUY	100	40¢	$40	0x155b26…
05-06 16:11:35	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0x067f4b…
05-06 16:10:57	S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on May 7?	Up	BUY	78	58¢	$45	0x1c56ce…
03-24 20:36:47	spx up or down on march 25 2026	Down	BUY	200	40¢	$80	0x87fc91…
03-24 20:21:01	spx opens up or down on march 25 2026	Down	BUY	109	40¢	$44	0x1f8bf2…
03-24 20:20:51	spx opens up or down on march 25 2026	Down	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xb3aec6…
03-24 18:06:51	spx opens up or down on march 25 2026	Down	BUY	386	40¢	$154	0x38e27b…
03-24 04:23:49	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Down	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x219bac…
03-24 02:15:01	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	28	40¢	$11	0x321de0…
03-24 01:59:01	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xf26c1d…
03-24 01:33:35	spx up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0xffd3e9…
03-24 00:05:03	spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	424	54¢	$229	0x58763c…
03-23 19:09:13	spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	Down	BUY	432	40¢	$173	0xe0ffbc…
03-23 19:08:13	spx opens up or down on march 24 2026	Up	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xf20f39…
03-23 16:22:47	spx up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	145	7¢	$10	0x43d622…
03-22 22:24:37	spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	174	60¢	$105	0xf0597e…
03-22 22:24:25	spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	Down	BUY	26	60¢	$15	0xf26194…
03-22 18:07:49	spx opens up or down on march 23 2026	Up	BUY	200	37¢	$73	0x60dcee…
03-20 07:09:49	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Up	BUY	419	40¢	$168	0x77eeda…
03-20 07:02:13	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Up	BUY	154	40¢	$61	0xd32970…
03-20 00:37:29	btc updown 5m 1773966900	Up	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0xdd873e…
03-20 00:36:17	btc updown 5m 1773966900	Down	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xfbded6…
03-19 19:55:23	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	12	40¢	$5	0x1fc213…
03-19 19:25:33	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	24	40¢	$9	0x800734…
03-19 18:17:13	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	324	40¢	$130	0x195a7f…
03-19 17:30:59	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Down	BUY	240	40¢	$96	0xbc635d…
03-19 15:15:31	spx opens up or down on march 20 2026	Up	BUY	27	40¢	$11	0x20435f…
03-19 14:31:59	spx up or down on march 19 2026	Down	BUY	576	85¢	$490	0xf4355b…
03-19 03:11:17	btc updown 5m 1773889800	Up	BUY	5	48¢	$2	0xfe9ff0…
03-19 03:11:05	btc updown 5m 1773889800	Down	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x80e038…
03-19 03:05:57	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	No	SELL	220	1¢	$2	0xd31711…
03-19 02:38:17	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Down	BUY	79	40¢	$31	0xda34e0…
03-19 02:33:33	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Down	BUY	83	40¢	$33	0x91f86b…
03-19 02:33:05	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Down	BUY	338	40¢	$135	0xb1b5d9…
03-18 20:27:27	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Up	BUY	152	40¢	$61	0xdd614c…
03-18 20:07:27	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Up	BUY	16	40¢	$6	0x3903b5…
03-18 20:07:13	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Up	BUY	269	40¢	$108	0x943ac0…
03-18 18:55:57	spx opens up or down on march 19 2026	Up	BUY	63	40¢	$25	0x8b963d…
03-18 14:58:21	spx up or down on march 18 2026	Down	BUY	308	81¢	$250	0xddf5b1…
03-18 01:50:01	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	10	80¢	$8	0x717ea2…
03-18 01:50:01	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	62	80¢	$50	0x322c19…
03-18 01:50:01	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	84	80¢	$67	0x1ca9ec…
03-18 01:50:01	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	24	80¢	$19	0x059001…
03-18 01:49:59	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	7	80¢	$6	0x8fe952…
03-18 01:49:59	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	SELL	31	80¢	$25	0x8fbde7…
03-18 01:45:15	btc updown 5m 1773798300	Up	BUY	222	45¢	$100	0x938e35…
03-18 01:40:33	btc updown 5m 1773798000	Up	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x3526cb…
03-18 01:38:35	btc updown 5m 1773797700	Up	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0xd315ec…
03-18 01:38:07	sp 500 all time high by march 31 2026	No	BUY	296	85¢	$253	0x424287…