Arid-Province — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$36.0K

Unrealized P&L

-$132

Hit rate

45.1%

Resolved

18,939

Trades

112,419

lifetime

Volume

$579.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$817

30 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 08:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 268 days

Categories

Crypto

49% 50% -$3,293

Other

32% 42% -$31,888

Sports

18% 41% -$573

Politics

0% 30% +$15

Pop-Culture

0% 21% -$267

Tech

0% 40% +$39

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

85 active days in 12wk • peak 3791 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Yes	+201	$141	86¢	$173	+$32	10-03 20:42
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+626	$131	22¢	$141	+$10	10-27 04:30
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+607	$86	12¢	$76	-$10	10-24 18:57
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+201	$75	32¢	$63	-$11	10-25 23:37
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	Yes	+716	$51	8¢	$58	+$7	10-29 16:31
Will Inter Milan win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+2,750	$66	2¢	$45	-$21	10-20 13:20
Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+47	$12	66¢	$31	+$18	10-25 17:13
Will Manchester City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	Yes	+68	$18	40¢	$27	+$9	10-13 17:44
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	+158	$33	16¢	$26	-$7	10-26 15:42
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+44	$15	40¢	$18	+$3	10-29 16:10
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+25	$17	68¢	$17	+$1	10-28 15:05
Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027?	Yes	+577	$50	2¢	$14	-$36	05-07 18:50
Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	Yes	+19	$4	72¢	$14	+$10	10-19 15:41
Will Chelsea win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+323	$44	4¢	$13	-$30	10-15 16:25
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+92	$12	12¢	$12	-$1	10-27 18:01
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Yes	+205	$26	6¢	$11	-$15	10-28 09:16
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+399	$39	3¢	$11	-$27	05-18 23:44
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+62	$9	16¢	$10	+$1	10-28 13:43
Will Real Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	+10	$7	78¢	$8	+$1	09-07 19:53
Will Nashville SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	+34	$4	22¢	$8	+$3	10-26 15:42
Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+45	$7	14¢	$6	-$1	10-28 09:21
Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	No	+7	$4	86¢	$6	+$2	09-25 13:42
Will Vancouver Whitecaps FC win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Yes	+33	$4	15¢	$5	+$1	10-26 15:42
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+439	$12	1¢	$5	-$7	10-01 16:16
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	No	+31	$12	14¢	$4	-$7	10-20 15:31
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+746	$57	0¢	$4	-$53	10-08 02:49
Will Hull City be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?	No	+6	$3	46¢	$3	$0	10-25 05:48
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	+3	$2	100¢	$3	+$1	10-10 10:59
Will Monaco win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Yes	+75	$7	4¢	$3	-$4	09-27 11:17
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?	Yes	+5	$3	56¢	$3	$0	10-28 10:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	351	$28.1K	14,710	14,285	+425	No	-$19	06-15 06:30
Ballon d'Or 2026: Kylian Mbappé or Lamine Yamal to finish higher?	1,258	$18.7K	65,786	12,546	+53,240	Mbappé	-$14,475	10-26 23:09
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	477	$11.2K	9,923	7,417	+2,506	No	-$55	07-11 23:25
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,185	$9.5K	49,558	6,914	+42,643	No	-$3,928	10-26 22:54
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	1,732	$9.3K	58,939	9,023	+49,916	No	-$6,204	10-26 22:53
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	145	$7.0K	4,118	3,805	+313	No	-$7	07-11 13:52
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	1,148	$6.6K	20,983	10,028	+10,955	No	-$2,717	07-19 22:01
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	461	$4.5K	5,886	2,808	+3,078	Yes	+$230	10-26 22:54
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	443	$4.5K	9,227	4,339	+4,888	Yes	+$4,711	07-19 22:08
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?	557	$3.9K	5,120	2,216	+2,904	Yes	+$1,193	05-30 19:10
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?	583	$3.1K	27,190	7,228	+19,962	Yes	+$737	07-09 23:59
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	374	$2.5K	14,398	1,706	+12,692	No	-$961	07-06 20:53
ethereum up or down on january 9	54	$2.1K	2,166	2,121	+45	Up	-$487	01-09 18:32
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	469	$2.0K	5,077	1,970	+3,106	No	-$774	07-14 20:55
xagusd up or down on august 25 2026	6	$1.9K	1,900	662	+1,239	Down	-$127	08-25 20:48
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	479	$1.8K	3,508	475	+3,033	No	-$1,040	05-30 19:10
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	153	$1.8K	3,693	1,546	+2,147	No	-$102	06-30 02:58
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	109	$1.8K	1,538	1,001	+538	No	-$29	06-29 23:19
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	163	$1.6K	4,752	605	+4,148	No	-$1,456	04-11 05:34
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	113	$1.6K	4,657	1,265	+3,392	No	-$277	07-05 21:43
Will Julian Alvarez stay at Atletico Madrid?	56	$1.4K	2,116	13	+2,103	Yes	+$586	09-01 22:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 3, 12AM ET	5	$1.4K	1,477	1,219	+258	Up	-$736	09-03 04:56
Ballon d'Or 2026: Rodri or Lionel Messi to finish higher?	192	$1.3K	3,536	797	+2,739	Rodri	-$912	10-26 23:01
Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 PFA Player of the Year?	239	$1.3K	1,630	861	+769	Yes	+$16	08-25 19:54
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on September 22?	5	$1.3K	1,179	853	+327	Up	-$170	09-22 20:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 14, 9AM ET	4	$1.2K	1,070	1,045	+25	Up	-$155	09-14 13:30
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 7?	9	$1.2K	1,892	0	+1,892	Down	+$659	10-07 11:37
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on September 10?	13	$1.2K	1,410	1,388	+22	Down	-$802	09-10 15:32
Will Enzo Fernandez stay at Chelsea?	323	$1.2K	4,356	2,405	+1,951	No	-$822	09-01 22:18
spy up or down on september 14 2026	9	$1.1K	1,302	7	+1,295	Down	+$168	09-14 16:59

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 10:06:57	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	2	75¢	$1	0x2ec58b…
10-30 10:06:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	25¢	$2	0x304533…
10-30 10:05:13	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0x8bac8e…
10-30 10:04:33	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0xb61a48…
10-30 10:03:22	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x344de0…
10-30 10:01:54	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	71¢	$3	0x4ef0a1…
10-30 10:01:51	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	5	72¢	$3	0x746aaf…
10-30 10:01:04	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 30?	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x9ec9d5…
10-30 09:57:12	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x999ffc…
10-30 09:56:43	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	SELL	2	66¢	$2	0x45aaae…
10-30 09:53:15	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0xa81bc9…
10-30 09:51:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Up	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x414945…
10-30 09:50:31	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x65a851…
10-30 09:48:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x63156b…
10-30 09:46:06	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x1d6d9c…
10-30 09:43:57	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb64a27…
10-30 09:38:15	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x69e251…
10-30 09:34:33	Google (GOOGL) Up or Down on October 30?	Up	BUY	8	47¢	$4	0xba1555…
10-30 09:33:31	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x795d94…
10-30 09:23:25	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x950987…
10-30 09:20:46	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5fbc95…
10-30 09:17:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0x036843…
10-30 09:12:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x396076…
10-30 09:06:43	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xa4794b…
10-30 09:05:46	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xe91f58…
10-30 08:56:51	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0x3f819c…
10-30 08:56:15	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xdb40d6…
10-30 08:55:48	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xd9e93c…
10-30 08:55:04	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	95¢	$1	0x75f62b…
10-30 08:54:39	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	89¢	$2	0x476f33…
10-30 08:48:49	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9873ff…
10-30 08:48:42	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x9e9a1a…
10-30 08:48:36	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xa3447a…
10-30 08:39:09	Will Michael Carrick be out as Manchester United manager by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	3	93¢	$3	0x4b30a7…
10-30 08:34:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4AM ET	Up	SELL	18	21¢	$4	0x581f46…
10-30 08:23:21	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xd4b497…
10-30 08:16:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xa1c09f…
10-30 08:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xee8240…
10-30 08:13:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 4AM ET	Up	BUY	18	38¢	$7	0x4a3dae…
10-30 07:46:03	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x2b4813…
10-30 07:31:34	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x0a4746…
10-30 07:28:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xe5140b…
10-30 07:28:28	Dogecoin Up or Down - October 30, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xb2c717…
10-30 06:56:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	SELL	4	29¢	$1	0x8b7ed3…
10-30 06:56:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x8c6c24…
10-30 06:56:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xf244a7…
10-30 06:56:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x33ec0c…
10-30 06:55:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x401ceb…
10-30 06:55:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	3	47¢	$1	0x34b0c0…
10-30 06:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xff02b6…
10-30 06:55:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	67¢	$1	0x5d41c1…
10-30 06:55:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x0a124a…
10-30 06:54:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x33e1ed…
10-30 06:54:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xb8adc1…
10-30 06:52:01	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	33¢	$1	0x00dde1…
10-30 06:51:49	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	56¢	$1	0xa33fce…
10-30 06:48:00	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x349801…
10-30 06:47:37	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xb8e905…
10-30 06:42:12	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xb963ef…
10-30 06:39:40	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Down	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0x4e0f06…
10-30 06:31:22	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x816257…
10-30 06:31:03	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET	Up	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0x41bff7…
10-30 06:24:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	54	64¢	$35	0x46e0ee…
10-30 06:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	SELL	47	36¢	$17	0x5f9567…
10-30 06:21:12	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0x3c46b6…
10-30 06:21:06	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x36fb25…
10-30 06:04:34	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET	Up	BUY	14	75¢	$11	0x6df0a1…
10-30 06:04:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	47	44¢	$20	0x8ac361…
10-30 05:51:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd1197c…
10-30 05:51:04	Ethereum Up or Down - October 30, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x0a9e3f…
10-30 05:49:12	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0xc92143…
10-30 05:42:34	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0xb44b84…
10-30 05:36:09	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0xdf5ea4…
10-30 04:58:12	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd80ce6…
10-30 04:57:15	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xa90c0f…
10-30 04:47:55	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 30, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	74¢	$11	0xf3160b…
10-30 04:44:12	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xdbf702…
10-30 04:43:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	71¢	$3	0x039c27…
10-30 04:24:30	Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on October 30?	Up	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x912c06…
10-30 04:20:27	BNB Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x68209e…
10-30 04:18:54	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	21	74¢	$15	0x9d91c6…
10-30 04:02:15	XRP Up or Down - October 30, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0xb760ab…
10-30 03:47:22	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 29, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0xb26401…
10-30 03:32:28	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	20¢	$2	0x46778d…
10-30 03:32:25	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	14¢	$2	0x4d3dcd…
10-30 03:32:19	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	11¢	$2	0x8f1974…
10-30 03:28:16	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	43¢	$2	0xb1d5a4…
10-30 03:25:57	Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x921111…
10-30 03:25:51	Will João Pedro (Chelsea) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Premier League season?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x4837fa…
10-30 02:33:16	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x5ac2b8…
10-30 02:22:13	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x362e6b…
10-30 02:17:55	BNB Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0xb9aca6…
10-30 02:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x717a5d…
10-30 01:42:34	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 29, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xf598a4…
10-30 01:29:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xb64627…
10-30 01:29:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xaf8345…
10-30 00:50:04	Hyperliquid Up or Down - October 29, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xf7d0f4…
10-30 00:30:19	Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $900B and $1.00T on October 31?	Yes	SELL	8	43¢	$4	0xf7e1c3…
10-29 23:59:03	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Up	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x19926f…
10-29 23:23:48	Ethereum Up or Down - October 29, 7PM ET	Down	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x3211ca…