Hateful-Chestnut — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$120

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

0.0%

Resolved

Trades

5,710

lifetime

Volume

$31.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-24 14:55

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

70% — —

Politics

22% — —

Other

6% 0% $-6

Sports

2% 0% $-114

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

42 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	35	$2.5K	2,448	2,448	+0	open	—	02-28 19:37
israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	20	$586	369	369	+0	open	—	07-22 14:19
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	9	$464	836	836	+0	open	—	02-18 09:33
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	3	$462	241	241	+0	open	—	04-22 08:03
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by june 30 20260607234650335	4	$442	258	258	+0	open	—	06-22 13:05
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	2	$373	0	468	-468	open	—	06-08 19:08
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	8	$366	254	254	+0	open	—	07-23 23:36
Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	8	$297	440	0	+440	open	—	07-04 06:49
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	9	$288	327	327	+0	open	—	07-20 08:45
israel x hezbollah permanent peace deal by june 30 2026	2	$232	97	155	-58	open	—	06-24 13:26
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$224	175	175	+0	open	—	06-15 21:15
israel closes its airspace by june 14	2	$209	114	114	+0	open	—	06-12 05:42
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	7	$195	1,045	1,044	+0	open	—	02-20 17:25
btc updown 5m 1771836600	4	$194	245	0	+245	open	—	02-23 08:54
will israel launch a major ground offensive in lebanon by march 31	3	$191	100	160	-60	open	—	03-03 07:26
eth updown 5m 1771921500	8	$173	204	30	+174	open	—	02-24 08:30
btc updown 5m 1771836000	6	$169	232	0	+232	open	—	02-23 08:45
will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by july 31	2	$168	108	108	+0	open	—	06-26 18:56
btc updown 5m 1771854300	4	$161	216	25	+192	open	—	02-23 13:49
israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	4	$160	183	45	+138	open	—	07-24 14:55
eth updown 5m 1771918500	2	$150	177	0	+177	open	—	02-24 07:40
btc updown 5m 1771831500	6	$150	192	0	+192	open	—	02-23 07:29
btc updown 5m 1772557500	2	$139	102	100	+2	open	—	03-03 17:09
btc updown 5m 1771839600	5	$128	203	0	+203	open	—	02-23 09:44
will iran strike cyprus in march	3	$125	145	145	+0	open	—	03-02 10:51
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$124	4,068	0	+4,068	open	—	06-17 16:58
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)	1	$114	138	0	+138	Sean Strickland	$-114	05-09 05:41
btc updown 5m 1771829400	6	$110	61	61	+0	open	—	02-23 06:54
btc updown 5m 1771832400	4	$110	163	0	+163	open	—	02-23 07:44
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	2	$106	100	100	+0	open	—	01-31 17:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-25 08:00:49	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x1e13a3…
07-24 14:55:58	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	SELL	45	77¢	$35	0x2d2bc3…
07-24 11:12:12	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	Yes	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x2cfd9d…
07-24 09:48:48	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	273	11¢	$30	0x4922e3…
07-23 23:38:18	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x13afdc…
07-23 23:36:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970 754 896	No	BUY	109	74¢	$80	0x501015…
07-23 23:36:00	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	241	72¢	$174	0x3abfd1…
07-23 15:40:31	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	95	70¢	$66	0x38421d…
07-23 15:09:16	Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Yes	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x8c28c6…
07-23 07:20:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	Yes	SELL	2	73¢	$2	0xae7bdc…
07-22 19:13:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	96	69¢	$66	0x25012c…
07-22 14:20:42	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	135	74¢	$100	0xea5c0e…
07-22 14:19:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	191	87¢	$166	0x0f75bb…
07-22 14:14:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x1a684f…
07-21 20:14:13	doge updown 5m 1784664600	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x0f622e…
07-21 20:09:42	eth updown 5m 1784664300	Down	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0xbb97ad…
07-21 20:08:15	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	6	84¢	$5	0x90152f…
07-21 14:27:42	israel closes its airspace by july 31 287	No	BUY	11	80¢	$9	0x22dde9…
07-21 11:52:10	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xe0839a…
07-21 11:46:57	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0xa9cff1…
07-21 11:02:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	27	84¢	$23	0xf95f86…
07-20 10:57:15	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	13	84¢	$11	0xba5d40…
07-20 08:45:36	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	57	64¢	$37	0xfb553f…
07-19 19:03:43	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	No	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x80410e…
07-19 19:03:24	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	11	88¢	$9	0x588502…
07-19 18:35:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 31 20260716224448970	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x14b600…
07-19 18:34:58	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	SELL	15	59¢	$9	0x0762e0…
07-19 08:24:34	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968	Yes	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x2a164a…
07-19 08:23:55	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	SELL	11	74¢	$8	0x82e86a…
07-18 19:51:15	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0x7393da…
07-18 19:50:55	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	SELL	57	9¢	$5	0x522a8d…
07-18 19:49:31	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x90a2cb…
07-18 17:47:57	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xe758dd…
07-18 17:47:21	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	SELL	7	43¢	$3	0xd0c1b8…
07-18 17:46:52	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	2	68¢	$2	0xab69a8…
07-18 17:46:13	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	27	11¢	$3	0xf695a9…
07-18 17:45:57	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xf7bf5c…
07-18 17:45:22	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x2c93c9…
07-17 11:40:12	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0xf5b6ab…
07-17 11:18:39	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x55e2c6…
07-17 11:18:24	iran full airspace closure by august 31 20260625195254151	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x0055e2…
07-17 09:06:46	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$2	0xae4969…
07-17 08:15:27	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 31 2026 20260713152715084 642	Yes	BUY	7	44¢	$3	0xaf6cd0…
07-16 19:10:59	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	No	SELL	13	87¢	$11	0xdfc9a6…
07-16 12:07:34	will trump meet with netanyahu by july 24 2026 20260714195149523	No	BUY	13	62¢	$8	0x5984c1…
07-16 11:00:11	Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x94830e…
07-14 10:33:56	iran military action against a gulf state on july 14 20260708212322939	No	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xbecd32…
07-14 10:26:44	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x54ffa2…
07-14 10:25:44	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	SELL	10	90¢	$9	0x05142a…
07-14 10:24:43	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xa04811…
07-10 11:52:59	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x49102d…
07-10 11:13:17	fifwc esp bel 2026 07 10 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x55406c…
07-10 11:12:41	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	3	88¢	$3	0x1125fe…
07-10 08:37:47	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x1c3296…
07-10 07:12:02	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xe7e2af…
07-09 19:56:26	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	SELL	6	74¢	$5	0x942046…
07-09 19:54:08	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	SELL	5	88¢	$4	0x332852…
07-09 14:25:31	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	SELL	2	55¢	$1	0xa06eaf…
07-09 08:25:59	sol updown 5m 1783585500	Down	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0xeb4e72…
07-09 08:24:04	doge updown 5m 1783585200	Up	SELL	1	88¢	$1	0x0ae6da…
07-09 08:22:26	doge updown 5m 1783585200	Up	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x8efe66…
07-09 08:18:59	us reissues iran oil sanction relief by july 31 20260707233859433	No	BUY	6	69¢	$4	0xeab1ef…
07-09 08:16:34	iran military action against a gulf state on july 9 20260708212322934	No	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x0d94ff…
07-09 08:10:38	iran military action against a gulf state on july 11 20260708212322936	No	BUY	6	62¢	$4	0xde1844…
07-09 05:58:52	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	11	57¢	$6	0x26165f…
07-08 14:05:50	kharg island no longer under iranian control by august 31	Yes	BUY	13	8¢	$1	0xf17cfa…
07-08 14:04:29	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	SELL	50	3¢	$1	0x520254…
07-08 14:02:43	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	SELL	27	48¢	$13	0x8bb22b…
07-08 10:53:26	fifwc fra mar 2026 07 09 team to advance	Morocco	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xbd04ba…
07-08 10:52:29	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	SELL	7	74¢	$5	0xcc9157…
07-08 10:13:23	kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5a87f9…
07-08 08:33:20	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	SELL	20	25¢	$5	0xc61f6f…
07-08 08:28:10	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x18646f…
07-08 08:27:53	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0xd18509…
07-08 08:26:40	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	24	21¢	$5	0xe79b91…
07-08 08:26:16	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	5	87¢	$4	0x654edf…
07-08 07:53:28	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x0267a0…
07-08 05:55:11	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x92984d…
07-07 13:02:19	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	2	85¢	$2	0x3f5e27…
07-07 12:23:52	fifwc arg egy 2026 07 07 team to advance	Argentina	BUY	8	86¢	$7	0x663618…
07-06 20:56:38	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	SELL	7	96¢	$7	0xc60206…
07-05 06:17:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	16	83¢	$13	0x5f7156…
07-05 05:55:41	fifwc prt esp 2026 07 06 team to advance	Spain	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xb85712…
07-04 22:16:01	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	SELL	25	81¢	$20	0x2064de…
07-04 22:02:44	fifwc par fra 2026 07 04 team to advance	France	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0x9a6404…
07-04 18:48:22	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x9d156a…
07-04 18:48:11	iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x565b66…
07-04 06:49:49	Israeli election results in a hung parliament?	No	BUY	170	65¢	$110	0xe4caba…
07-04 06:42:17	will israeli forces withdraw from beyond the litani river by december 31	No	SELL	270	45¢	$122	0xbc09e9…
07-03 10:00:41	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x6956bb…
07-03 08:43:37	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	25	12¢	$3	0x5ef181…
07-02 19:07:22	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x9c645a…
07-02 08:49:01	will ukraine recapture crimean territory by december 31 2026	Yes	BUY	83	12¢	$10	0x336472…
07-02 08:40:31	fifwc che alg 2026 07 02 team to advance	Switzerland	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xc09dbc…
07-02 06:03:01	Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0x1bac5b…
07-01 20:32:26	fifwc bel sen 2026 07 01 team to advance	Belgium	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x70fcb8…
07-01 12:40:31	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xd66781…
07-01 12:39:44	will venezuela recognize israel by december 31	No	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x245eea…
07-01 11:27:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by december 31 2026	No	BUY	51	79¢	$40	0x7414df…
07-01 11:24:52	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	No	SELL	78	48¢	$38	0x3e92a8…