Elementary-Layer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1

Unrealized P&L

+$117

Hit rate

80.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$5.75K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$122

Open exposure

$1.87K

8 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 08-04 11:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 11 days

Categories

Other

60% 100% +$356

Politics

40% 62% -$357

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-04).

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (17) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	+583	$505	94¢	$551	+$46	07-02 20:47
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	+550	$520	98¢	$538	+$18	07-02 20:48
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	+200	$176	90¢	$180	+$4	08-01 12:46
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	+145	$125	97¢	$141	+$16	05-03 14:35
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	+137	$125	98¢	$135	+$10	05-01 20:58
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	+115	$100	97¢	$111	+$11	05-18 15:18
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	+115	$100	96¢	$111	+$11	05-01 20:59
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	+110	$103	95¢	$105	+$2	05-19 17:20

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	7	$705	750	0	+750	No	+$45	01-03 09:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$531	603	0	+603	No	+$72	05-21 10:56
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	2	$520	550	0	+550	open	—	07-02 20:48
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	3	$505	583	0	+583	open	—	07-02 20:47
Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	5	$320	0	325	-325	No	-$5	05-20 17:32
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	4	$296	320	0	+320	No	+$23	05-21 10:57
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	2	$288	900	0	+900	Yes	-$288	02-28 16:40
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	2	$270	300	0	+300	No	+$30	08-04 11:34
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	1	$250	324	0	+324	No	+$74	04-11 21:14
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	2	$202	115	115	+0	No	+$2	05-23 12:05
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	1	$200	244	0	+244	No	+$44	01-10 21:27
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	1	$176	200	0	+200	open	—	08-01 12:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	1	$175	395	0	+395	Yes	-$175	02-28 16:49
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	1	$175	208	0	+208	No	+$33	04-11 21:14
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	1	$175	197	0	+197	No	+$22	04-11 21:14
strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	1	$170	200	0	+200	No	+$30	08-01 12:46
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$125	137	0	+137	open	—	05-01 20:58
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	1	$125	145	0	+145	open	—	05-03 14:35
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	1	$103	110	0	+110	open	—	05-19 17:20
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	1	$100	175	0	+175	No	+$75	05-03 14:42
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	05-18 15:18
Trump out as President before 2027?	1	$100	115	0	+115	open	—	05-01 20:59
ukraine election called by march 31 2026	2	$87	100	0	+100	No	+$13	01-01 15:41
zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	1	$29	30	0	+30	No	+$1	01-02 21:22
will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	1	$19	20	0	+20	No	+$1	01-02 23:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-04 11:34:54	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	150	86¢	$129	0xe4b4d5…
08-01 12:48:03	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	No	BUY	150	94¢	$141	0x53995e…
08-01 12:46:20	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	BUY	200	88¢	$176	0xdb3392…
08-01 12:46:09	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by september 30 20260702154339440	No	BUY	200	85¢	$170	0xae4691…
07-02 20:48:02	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	250	96¢	$240	0x3162a0…
07-02 20:47:55	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	250	92¢	$230	0xf0ed02…
05-23 12:05:34	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	SELL	115	89¢	$102	0x7f6709…
05-21 10:57:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xc4ee6b…
05-21 10:57:47	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	39	96¢	$38	0x8aae5d…
05-21 10:57:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	59	96¢	$57	0xc82783…
05-21 10:56:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	200	95¢	$190	0x55001d…
05-20 17:32:20	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	284	99¢	$280	0x4fd0e3…
05-20 10:26:21	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	0	99¢	$0	0x77b6fe…
05-20 08:26:45	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xbfd959…
05-20 07:43:31	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xe34642…
05-19 17:44:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	94	96¢	$91	0x2c73df…
05-19 17:25:05	Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xe334a5…
05-19 17:20:57	Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	110	94¢	$103	0x7a880b…
05-19 16:41:06	Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?	No	BUY	300	93¢	$280	0x2b0f9b…
05-18 15:21:56	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	181	83¢	$150	0x6faa0c…
05-18 15:18:19	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x7be155…
05-03 14:42:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0x34c7ad…
05-03 14:42:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	175	57¢	$100	0xc18c9f…
05-03 14:36:40	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	152	82¢	$125	0x3142dd…
05-03 14:35:44	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	No	BUY	145	86¢	$125	0x794b66…
05-01 20:59:22	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0x686cf7…
05-01 20:58:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	137	91¢	$125	0x4b5d0f…
05-01 20:58:22	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	115	87¢	$100	0xa097c9…
05-01 20:58:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	220	91¢	$200	0x0be57b…
04-11 21:14:59	us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	No	BUY	324	77¢	$250	0xa1caa9…
04-11 21:14:33	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	197	89¢	$175	0x4f1073…
04-11 21:14:03	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	208	84¢	$175	0xc166ab…
02-28 16:49:27	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	No	BUY	395	44¢	$175	0x3ff05a…
02-28 16:40:55	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	800	25¢	$200	0xbac16b…
01-10 21:27:38	will the iranian regime fall by january 31	No	BUY	244	82¢	$200	0x8f3cf6…
01-03 09:40:01	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	100	89¢	$89	0xb70776…
01-03 00:36:21	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	No	BUY	100	88¢	$88	0x467470…
01-02 23:55:31	will putin meet with zelenskyy by march 31 2026	No	BUY	20	97¢	$19	0xdd70cb…
01-02 21:22:09	zelenskyy out as ukraine president by march 31 2026	No	BUY	30	96¢	$29	0xdb0023…
01-01 16:05:15	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	340	95¢	$322	0x45676c…
01-01 15:41:23	ukraine election called by march 31 2026	No	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0xafc237…
01-01 15:11:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xcf3171…
01-01 15:11:17	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	37	95¢	$35	0xb9f233…
01-01 14:55:37	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	57	95¢	$54	0x065570…
01-01 13:56:33	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	135	95¢	$128	0x00d081…
01-01 13:14:27	ukraine election called by march 31 2026	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x9f7784…
01-01 13:13:59	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	No	BUY	44	95¢	$41	0x5c220a…