Internal-Provision — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

235

lifetime

Volume

$26.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$114

Open exposure

$141

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-10 05:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

38% — —

Crypto

33% 100% +$1

Other

25% 100% +$0

Sports

2% — —

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No		+150	$140	94¢	$141	+$1	06-08 15:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us forces enter iran by march 14 337	11	$4.1K	2,106	2,106	+0	open	—	03-14 07:08
will solana reach 200 in february 2026	42	$2.1K	1,036	1,036	+0	open	—	02-19 09:56
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	8	$1.2K	626	626	+0	open	—	01-09 15:56
will ethereum reach 4400 in february 2026	2	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	02-18 05:08
will ethereum reach 4200 in february 2026	2	$1.0K	520	520	+0	open	—	02-20 09:25
will ethereum reach 4000 in february 2026	2	$1.0K	517	517	+0	open	—	02-13 09:17
will trump visit china by march 31	6	$742	373	373	+0	open	—	03-28 13:55
trump out as president by march 31	6	$681	349	349	+0	open	—	03-10 15:38
will trump talk to vladimir putin in january	4	$638	426	213	+213	open	—	02-03 07:08
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	3	$625	421	210	+211	open	—	01-25 12:08
will scott bessent attend the 2026 state of the union address	1	$520	521	0	+521	open	—	02-24 13:06
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	1	$519	520	0	+520	open	—	02-20 15:34
Espresso FDV above $50M one day after launch?	1	$516	517	0	+517	Yes	+$1	02-13 18:38
will solv energy incs market cap be greater than 5pt4b at market close on ipo day	1	$508	509	0	+509	open	—	02-14 21:54
highest temperature in shanghai on april 8 2026 18c	2	$507	254	254	+0	open	—	04-08 13:33
Trump out as President by April 30?	4	$501	253	253	+0	open	—	04-23 16:51
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	2	$489	490	0	+490	open	—	02-14 03:58
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	6	$484	252	252	+0	Yes	+$0	04-07 02:24
will the fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	5	$456	229	229	+0	open	—	02-12 20:12
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	2	$421	220	220	+0	open	—	02-11 12:23
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$419	216	216	+0	open	—	01-20 08:29
will ethereum dip to 1400 in january 2026 585	2	$417	209	209	+0	open	—	01-14 13:14
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$416	209	209	+0	open	—	01-10 08:23
will ethereum dip to 1200 in february 2026	2	$414	214	214	+0	open	—	02-04 11:26
will bitcoin dip to 45k in january 2026	12	$409	209	202	+7	open	—	01-11 17:14
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	4	$396	204	204	+0	open	—	04-08 01:03
microstrategy sell any bitcoin in 2025	3	$385	205	181	+24	open	—	01-04 13:09
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	4	$357	180	180	+0	open	—	03-14 13:36
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	2	$350	180	170	+10	open	—	03-13 14:07
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	2	$347	177	170	+7	open	—	03-02 05:26

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-10 05:28:27	will tom herman advance from the ca 33 primary election	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x899b57…
06-10 03:34:34	will stephanie vargas advance from the ca 33 primary election	Yes	SELL	55	100¢	$55	0x0a8409…
06-10 01:37:54	will tom herman advance from the ca 33 primary election	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x09c392…
06-09 06:14:00	will tom herman advance from the ca 33 primary election	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x0e652a…
06-08 15:06:22	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0x91e005…
06-06 02:42:48	will stephanie vargas advance from the ca 33 primary election	Yes	BUY	55	99¢	$54	0x1a1703…
06-06 02:40:33	will tom herman advance from the ca 33 primary election	No	BUY	14	99¢	$13	0x528c03…
06-02 02:53:06	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	20	14¢	$3	0x9fc051…
06-02 02:51:09	Will Tunisia recognize Israel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x771b02…
05-31 08:38:17	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xac2a0e…
05-25 12:40:19	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	131	1¢	$1	0x1b10f3…
05-25 12:35:30	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x04f66b…
05-24 07:02:57	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	150	98¢	$147	0xb762b7…
05-16 02:35:59	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	27	98¢	$27	0x6b6d07…
05-16 02:35:43	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x658efa…
05-16 02:35:08	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	42	98¢	$41	0xaca365…
05-16 02:34:54	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	BUY	46	98¢	$45	0x14e6f6…
05-08 12:38:26	Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x4e9ad6…
05-04 19:51:32	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	172	99¢	$170	0x4bff5e…
05-03 15:58:58	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	172	98¢	$169	0x7b8a01…
04-27 10:00:02	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x7b7cf1…
04-27 09:59:34	Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.20 in April?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0xe749ae…
04-23 16:51:08	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	169	100¢	$168	0x42eb4b…
04-21 01:57:12	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	169	99¢	$168	0x65a9f5…
04-20 01:44:16	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	170	99¢	$168	0x587491…
04-18 04:41:54	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	114	99¢	$113	0x790bfd…
04-18 02:57:22	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	56	99¢	$55	0x0189c1…
04-08 13:33:31	highest temperature in shanghai on april 8 2026 18c	Yes	SELL	254	100¢	$254	0x161ff2…
04-08 10:44:39	highest temperature in shanghai on april 8 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	254	100¢	$253	0xbea389…
04-08 01:03:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	39	99¢	$38	0x4d1139…
04-07 13:29:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	39	97¢	$38	0x5b4475…
04-07 02:24:21	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	222	96¢	$213	0xa5a6a4…
04-07 01:35:09	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x384373…
04-06 22:17:25	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	180	96¢	$173	0xed0b78…
04-06 21:57:15	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x54c4ac…
04-06 20:08:33	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0x8a65f1…
04-06 20:02:23	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	66	96¢	$63	0x591e54…
04-06 10:40:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	SELL	165	97¢	$160	0x4da7f5…
04-05 14:05:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	165	97¢	$160	0xfad2b1…
04-05 14:04:25	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	SELL	84	99¢	$83	0x785099…
03-29 05:35:24	Trump out as President by April 30?	No	BUY	84	98¢	$82	0x15e7d7…
03-28 13:57:55	will russia test a nuclear weapon by march 31 2026	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x5f4dd6…
03-28 13:57:29	AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	24	100¢	$24	0x984677…
03-28 13:57:11	will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xf47bd9…
03-28 13:56:47	will crude oil cl settle at 65 70 in march 453	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xf0a5ed…
03-28 13:55:59	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xe302b0…
03-28 13:55:33	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	180	100¢	$180	0x3fcdd1…
03-26 08:48:07	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0x36e2ed…
03-26 06:46:03	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x7aa4be…
03-26 06:43:27	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x36c566…
03-26 06:42:27	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x194828…
03-26 06:42:07	netanyahu out by march 31 854	No	BUY	8	99¢	$7	0x61cb0c…
03-26 06:40:53	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	SELL	12	99¢	$11	0x9d98de…
03-25 17:43:59	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	102	99¢	$101	0xc4d8df…
03-25 17:43:57	will trump visit china by march 31	No	SELL	91	99¢	$91	0x2879a2…
03-25 06:36:55	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	149	99¢	$148	0x8773fc…
03-25 06:33:33	will trump visit china by march 31	No	BUY	44	99¢	$44	0xdc6453…
03-23 13:18:05	will trump say doug or burgum this week march 22	No	BUY	194	100¢	$193	0xc1007f…
03-23 13:17:47	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	SELL	50	99¢	$50	0x048bc1…
03-22 02:58:27	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	No	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0xa54473…
03-22 02:57:07	crude oil all time high by march 31	No	BUY	8	96¢	$8	0x81993f…
03-22 02:56:31	will iran strike india in march	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x260685…
03-22 02:55:23	USD.AI FDV above $4B one day after launch?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$11	0xe73079…
03-22 02:51:55	will ethena reach 0pt32 in march	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xc46ddf…
03-22 02:50:27	will gold gc hit high 7000 by end of march	No	BUY	6	100¢	$5	0x254e9b…
03-22 02:49:57	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x956c61…
03-20 08:58:47	highest temperature in seoul on march 20 2026 15corhigher	No	BUY	115	100¢	$114	0x9238d8…
03-20 08:58:23	highest temperature in tokyo on march 20 2026 16c	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x5dfcea…
03-19 14:48:23	highest temperature in shanghai on march 19 2026 14corhigher	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x7bea64…
03-19 14:47:25	will emmanuel grgoire advance to the second round of the 2026 paris municipal election	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xa0fe44…
03-19 14:46:51	will crude oil cl hit high 200 by end of march 926	No	BUY	50	99¢	$49	0x05ea08…
03-15 14:29:21	Iran leadership change by March 13?	No	BUY	48	100¢	$48	0x3143ad…
03-15 14:01:23	will iran strike israel on march 10	Yes	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0x0fe988…
03-15 14:00:41	Katana FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x9a1ea1…
03-14 13:36:25	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	SELL	170	99¢	$169	0xf93abc…
03-14 12:37:25	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	SELL	1,000	4¢	$37	0xd720f0…
03-14 07:08:25	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	663	97¢	$640	0x1101d7…
03-14 07:08:17	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	300	97¢	$290	0xcf9668…
03-14 07:06:49	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	37	97¢	$36	0x5013fc…
03-14 06:03:07	will the iranian regime fall by march 31	Yes	BUY	1,000	4¢	$39	0x2de40a…
03-14 05:58:29	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	1,000	96¢	$964	0xe12b28…
03-14 05:21:25	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	1,105	97¢	$1,067	0x24d00b…
03-14 05:19:37	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0xdac5d1…
03-14 05:18:45	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	580	96¢	$559	0x3b0f59…
03-14 05:18:05	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	104	96¢	$100	0x0f6282…
03-14 05:16:39	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	135	96¢	$130	0xa03e0e…
03-14 05:16:33	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	268	96¢	$258	0xd7141a…
03-14 05:10:21	us forces enter iran by march 14 337	No	BUY	20	96¢	$19	0xb35683…
03-13 15:34:07	will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	No	BUY	170	99¢	$168	0x17749e…
03-13 14:07:07	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	SELL	170	100¢	$170	0xe13b39…
03-12 09:21:43	Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0x9a5423…
03-11 10:13:35	will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 7 339 656	No	BUY	179	100¢	$179	0xb178fa…
03-10 15:38:57	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x6706f7…
03-10 15:17:15	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	41	99¢	$40	0x3eab35…
03-10 15:17:15	trump out as president by march 31	No	SELL	120	99¢	$118	0x376060…
03-10 12:09:07	trump out as president by march 31	No	BUY	180	98¢	$177	0x806dd3…
03-08 03:04:07	will israel strike lebanon on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	161	100¢	$161	0x9b95ec…
03-08 03:03:49	will iran strike israel on march 4	Yes	SELL	161	100¢	$161	0x09cf14…
03-07 13:55:55	will iran strike israel on march 4	Yes	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0xcafe1b…
03-06 03:26:41	Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0x0a7432…