United-Alfalfa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$288

Unrealized P&L

+$2.36K

Hit rate

77.1%

Resolved

580

Trades

5,996

lifetime

Volume

$576.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$96

Open exposure

$4.91K

10 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-30 01:56

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 158 days

Categories

Politics

60% 62% +$3,812

Other

29% 50% +$7,933

Crypto

7% 41% -$11,446

Tech

3% 57% -$87

Sports

1% 75% +$75

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

55 active days in 12wk • peak 60 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	+3,732	$2,538	66¢	$2.4K	-$93	10-30 00:13
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	+1,410	$282	57¢	$804	+$522	10-30 01:56
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	+1,320	$875	52¢	$693	-$182	10-30 00:17
Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	+1,725	$508	24¢	$419	-$89	10-29 19:26
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	+419	-$2,002	100¢	$419	+$2,421	09-25 14:25
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	+659	$130	19¢	$125	-$5	10-29 14:45
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	+141	$3	2¢	$2	-$1	10-30 01:43
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	No	+2	$1	87¢	$2	+$1	04-28 17:57
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	Yes	+419	$217	0¢	$0	-$217	08-20 18:06
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?	Yes	+2	$0	13¢	$0	+$0	08-28 13:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	68	$32.9K	16,737	17,737	-1,000	No	+$93	02-23 23:51
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	33	$24.2K	12,315	12,315	+0	No	+$61	02-23 00:07
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	30	$23.6K	12,344	12,344	+0	No	+$183	02-24 20:51
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	89	$22.4K	17,471	11,131	+6,339	No	+$130	03-31 19:59
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	39	$18.9K	13,370	11,565	+1,805	No	+$127	02-26 15:26
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	14	$13.3K	7,066	7,066	+0	No	+$340	02-20 19:18
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	34	$12.8K	6,302	7,097	-796	No	+$218	02-28 04:44
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	8	$12.6K	6,325	6,325	+0	No	+$11	02-15 01:49
will xrp dip to 1pt05 on august 20 2026	14	$12.2K	14,128	12,208	+1,920	No	-$11,238	08-20 23:37
will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	80	$11.1K	11,456	11,456	+0	No	+$1,675	06-29 15:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	25	$11.0K	7,800	8,700	-900	Yes	+$913	04-07 22:57
will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	56	$10.4K	9,618	7,401	+2,218	No	+$579	07-21 06:54
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	13	$10.2K	4,326	6,087	-1,761	No	+$45	02-22 00:47
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 3	3	$9.6K	5,018	5,018	+0	Yes	+$179	08-02 16:19
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	72	$7.9K	4,961	4,702	+260	No	+$111	03-28 17:01
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026	30	$7.8K	8,119	7,281	+838	open	—	09-25 14:25
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	31	$7.7K	4,340	4,338	+2	No	+$60	01-19 10:27
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	7	$7.5K	7,731	7,731	+0	No	+$29	07-07 17:44
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	37	$7.2K	4,966	4,966	+0	No	-$204	01-24 00:22
will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	35	$6.6K	6,442	6,442	+0	No	+$163	06-25 20:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	2	$6.6K	5,000	5,000	+0	open	—	10-30 00:47
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	38	$6.1K	5,702	5,902	-200	Yes	-$90	04-07 22:58
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?	7	$6.0K	3,391	3,391	+0	No	-$291	01-20 21:03
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	2	$5.7K	2,907	2,907	+0	No	+$96	01-21 19:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$5.5K	3,330	3,330	+0	Yes	+$0	01-21 19:29
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	112	$5.4K	6,750	7,448	-698	No	-$210	03-23 12:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	15	$5.3K	3,069	3,069	+0	Yes	+$2	02-28 04:51
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	5	$5.1K	2,750	2,750	+0	No	+$50	01-28 15:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	83	$4.9K	10,755	10,885	-129	No	+$171	03-29 22:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	8	$4.8K	3,533	3,533	+0	Yes	-$121	06-08 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 01:56:16	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in October?	No	BUY	1,410	20¢	$282	0x48620e…
10-30 01:48:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?	Yes	BUY	127	75¢	$95	0xbc05c5…
10-30 01:45:21	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	246	10¢	$25	0xe55222…
10-30 01:45:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in October?	Yes	BUY	245	10¢	$24	0x680b59…
10-30 01:43:49	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	118	2¢	$2	0xee0ba8…
10-30 01:43:46	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in October?	Yes	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xccd6e8…
10-30 01:16:04	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	184	92¢	$170	0xce151e…
10-30 01:15:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	406	93¢	$378	0x16601f…
10-30 01:15:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	409	93¢	$381	0xc7ae7e…
10-30 01:11:10	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	36¢	$355	0xd1a3cc…
10-30 00:47:21	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	SELL	5,000	82¢	$4,100	0x0c65cd…
10-30 00:32:34	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	SELL	498	5¢	$25	0x06e0e3…
10-30 00:18:40	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?	No	BUY	498	14¢	$68	0xde78f2…
10-30 00:17:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	543	70¢	$379	0xed0e7d…
10-30 00:17:01	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x82b51c…
10-30 00:14:57	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	344	65¢	$223	0xb6a5a4…
10-30 00:14:24	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?	No	BUY	426	63¢	$268	0xfa8351…
10-30 00:14:07	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	5,000	50¢	$2,500	0x2be97b…
10-30 00:13:43	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	BUY	3,732	68¢	$2,538	0x65628b…
10-29 21:14:07	Bitcoin above 78,800 on October 29, 6PM ET?	No	BUY	240	25¢	$60	0xaa1df8…
10-29 19:26:03	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	132	18¢	$24	0x66d048…
10-29 14:45:59	Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	659	20¢	$130	0xc94130…
10-29 14:15:31	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,000	25¢	$250	0x39a176…
10-29 14:13:19	Will Canada become a European Union Association Member by December 31, 2027? (copy)	Yes	BUY	194	16¢	$31	0x481fe8…
10-28 18:34:04	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	1,059	39¢	$418	0xd9ddf8…
10-28 15:23:37	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	SELL	321	13¢	$43	0x285d1f…
10-28 15:23:29	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	90	76¢	$68	0x51cef9…
10-28 15:21:23	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	97	39¢	$38	0x8d79a3…
10-28 15:19:40	Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1,555	40¢	$614	0x5773f3…
10-28 13:28:59	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,146	1¢	$11	0x4367d1…
10-27 21:48:21	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	SELL	140	44¢	$62	0xb04f12…
10-27 19:02:44	Will Trump meet with Flávio Bolsonaro in 2026?	No	BUY	140	69¢	$97	0xbb33d7…
10-27 19:00:14	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	119	7¢	$8	0x516f13…
10-27 18:59:18	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	3¢	$4	0x8930ea…
10-27 18:59:12	Will Trump meet with Jair Bolsonaro in 2026?	Yes	BUY	916	3¢	$25	0x73cdc8…
10-23 18:13:35	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	524	5¢	$26	0xae74fd…
10-23 13:23:30	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	511	7¢	$34	0x2def36…
10-23 13:23:29	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0xa6866f…
10-21 10:36:35	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	No	BUY	321	42¢	$135	0x13857b…
10-20 21:15:02	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	363	0¢	$2	0xcf8138…
10-20 17:42:53	CoreWeave downgraded by Moody's or S&P by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	90	80¢	$72	0xc0d8bf…
10-20 14:05:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	20	34¢	$7	0xe5dc72…
10-20 14:02:47	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	90	34¢	$31	0x6e81aa…
10-20 14:02:18	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	185	37¢	$68	0x923731…
10-20 13:54:29	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	SELL	251	40¢	$100	0x3674c8…
10-20 12:34:54	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $99 on October 20?	Yes	BUY	319	74¢	$236	0x03dc7f…
10-16 00:07:27	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	SELL	179	0¢	$0	0x18daba…
10-15 18:47:08	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	169	3¢	$5	0x5e5efb…
10-15 18:42:22	Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on October 15?	Up	BUY	331	3¢	$10	0x64d7c8…
10-15 00:05:40	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	SELL	129	4¢	$5	0x9fe68e…
10-14 12:28:59	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	SELL	26	4¢	$1	0xcb87e6…
10-13 23:48:51	will xagusd reach 60 in october 2026 from october 13	Yes	SELL	218	83¢	$181	0x8019dc…
10-13 18:08:51	will xagusd reach 60 in october 2026 from october 13	Yes	BUY	218	86¢	$187	0x80b51f…
10-13 15:29:29	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	SELL	2,074	2¢	$38	0x1991a6…
10-13 15:22:28	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	102	68¢	$69	0x426a16…
10-11 16:46:55	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	No	SELL	150	50¢	$75	0xfcc3ff…
10-11 14:23:15	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	150	51¢	$76	0xee18f7…
10-06 08:54:12	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2,323	14¢	$332	0x6007ac…
10-05 18:28:14	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	SELL	470	99¢	$465	0x76ac28…
10-05 18:10:20	bitcoin up or down on october 5 2026	Up	SELL	470	61¢	$287	0x1ce693…
10-05 17:29:32	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	941	29¢	$269	0x6dc37d…
10-05 17:21:55	Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?	Yes	BUY	2,323	15¢	$348	0x42d184…
10-05 17:21:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	SELL	3,000	7¢	$202	0x0396df…
10-05 12:49:22	Will Saudi airspace be closed by October 31?	Yes	BUY	3,000	6¢	$180	0xe06aa8…
10-04 02:03:29	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	63¢	$52	0xb73e8c…
10-03 17:45:38	Will the USS George Washington depart CENTCOM by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xc59978…
10-01 19:57:06	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	61	2¢	$1	0xca0210…
10-01 19:31:42	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	300	4¢	$12	0xbb2fd1…
10-01 19:28:12	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	300	6¢	$18	0x71bf0d…
10-01 19:27:23	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	40	6¢	$2	0x740b5d…
10-01 19:22:33	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	400	7¢	$28	0xcea7f7…
10-01 19:22:09	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	240	6¢	$14	0xde5bde…
10-01 19:20:30	spy up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x4400a7…
10-01 19:12:39	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	209	9¢	$19	0x9ad3a3…
10-01 19:12:17	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	200	9¢	$18	0x6e5096…
10-01 19:12:03	SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 1?	Down	BUY	10	9¢	$1	0x4f9f05…
09-28 17:31:21	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Yes	SELL	424	46¢	$193	0x60a4d6…
09-28 17:30:59	will xagusd dip to 60 by september 28 2026	Yes	SELL	126	58¢	$73	0xff5372…
09-28 14:53:33	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Yes	BUY	163	69¢	$112	0x82c2e3…
09-28 14:53:26	will xagusd dip to 60 by september 28 2026	Yes	BUY	126	76¢	$96	0x8fef25…
09-28 14:43:50	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 in September?	Yes	BUY	261	59¢	$153	0xaac3c9…
09-25 16:22:15	Israel x Lebanon Effective Ceasefire by September 30?	Yes	BUY	1,000	5¢	$48	0x0440cc…
09-25 14:25:26	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2,200	97¢	$2,134	0x160927…
09-18 21:36:33	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1,250	92¢	$1,150	0xff0581…
09-18 21:33:45	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	50	92¢	$46	0xb178b2…
09-15 15:31:06	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	No	BUY	228	2¢	$5	0x81673f…
09-15 11:44:40	us x iran effective ceasefire by september 11	No	BUY	1,000	4¢	$44	0x069927…
09-14 18:13:12	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	3,721	5¢	$200	0x8945d3…
09-14 18:13:00	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	593	5¢	$28	0x891869…
09-14 17:55:22	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	308	6¢	$18	0xa57a85…
09-14 17:38:46	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	778	4¢	$32	0xb77212…
09-14 17:38:46	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x958aff…
09-14 17:38:46	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	SELL	201	4¢	$8	0x7362b6…
09-14 17:27:24	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?	No	BUY	31	4¢	$1	0x4de91f…
09-14 17:23:48	US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	BUY	2,771	3¢	$80	0x305258…
09-14 14:26:40	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc4352d…
09-14 14:22:06	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0x202cda…
09-14 14:22:04	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	37¢	$2	0x62f865…
09-14 14:22:01	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	9	37¢	$3	0xd66cff…
09-14 14:22:00	Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	38¢	$190	0x8fb9f3…