United-Alfalfa — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$222

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

9.3%

Resolved

Trades

5,142

lifetime

Volume

$473.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$92

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-21 18:54

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

66% — —

Other

29% 50% $-1

Crypto

5% 0% $-221

Tech

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Pop-Culture

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

61 active days in 12wk • peak 136 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 23 2026 678 563	68	$32.9K	16,737	17,737	-1,000	open	—	02-23 23:51
us strikes iran by february 22 2026	33	$24.2K	12,315	12,315	+0	open	—	02-23 00:07
us strikes iran by february 24 2026	30	$23.6K	12,344	12,344	+0	open	—	02-24 20:51
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	89	$22.4K	17,471	11,131	+6,339	open	—	03-31 19:59
us strikes iran by february 26 2026 368	39	$18.9K	13,370	11,565	+1,805	open	—	02-26 15:26
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	14	$13.3K	7,066	7,066	+0	open	—	02-20 19:18
us strikes iran by february 27 2026	34	$12.8K	6,302	7,097	-796	open	—	02-28 04:44
us strikes iran by february 14 2026	8	$12.6K	6,325	6,325	+0	open	—	02-15 01:49
will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	80	$11.1K	11,456	11,456	+0	open	—	06-29 15:32
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	25	$11.0K	7,800	8,700	-900	open	—	04-07 22:57
will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	56	$10.4K	9,618	7,401	+2,218	open	—	07-21 06:54
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	13	$10.2K	4,326	6,087	-1,761	open	—	02-22 00:47
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	72	$7.9K	4,961	4,702	+260	open	—	03-28 17:01
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	31	$7.7K	4,340	4,338	+2	open	—	01-19 10:27
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	37	$7.2K	4,966	4,966	+0	open	—	01-24 00:22
will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	35	$6.6K	6,442	6,442	+0	open	—	06-25 20:10
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	38	$6.1K	5,702	5,902	-200	open	—	04-07 22:58
Trove FDV above $2M one day after launch?	7	$6.0K	3,391	3,391	+0	open	—	01-20 21:03
will all of trumps greenland tariffs go into effect by feb 1	2	$5.7K	2,907	2,907	+0	open	—	01-21 19:48
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	2	$5.5K	3,330	3,330	+0	open	—	01-21 19:29
will crude oil cl hit low 80 by end of march 459 543 676 456 138 869 867 397	112	$5.4K	6,750	7,448	-698	open	—	03-23 12:25
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	15	$5.3K	3,069	3,069	+0	open	—	02-28 04:51
us strikes iran by january 30 2026 273 584 555 114 476	5	$5.1K	2,750	2,750	+0	open	—	01-28 15:06
will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	83	$4.9K	10,755	10,885	-129	open	—	03-29 22:12
Trove FDV above $5M one day after launch?	7	$4.8K	2,567	2,567	+0	open	—	01-20 20:45
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	8	$4.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	open	—	05-27 12:47
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by march 31	37	$4.1K	3,128	2,401	+727	open	—	03-30 13:44
will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	61	$4.0K	5,258	4,841	+417	open	—	03-09 02:26
us strikes iran by february 25 2026	13	$3.9K	5,637	8,670	-3,034	open	—	02-25 21:12
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	3	$3.7K	2,000	2,000	+0	open	—	06-08 01:22

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-21 19:19:42	will ng reach 3 00 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	65¢	$65	0x7b5074…
07-21 19:19:28	will ng reach 3 00 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	204	62¢	$126	0x72d475…
07-21 18:54:00	spcx up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	2,100	5¢	$105	0x851758…
07-21 17:35:21	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xbf3000…
07-21 15:20:52	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	315	1¢	$3	0x41240c…
07-21 15:18:45	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x0ccb8e…
07-21 15:18:00	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xc43ce0…
07-21 15:02:39	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x67b363…
07-21 15:02:28	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x80fafb…
07-21 14:16:36	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	81	1¢	$1	0x4e783b…
07-21 11:58:40	xauusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	53	7¢	$4	0x04821b…
07-21 10:54:49	xauusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	108	7¢	$8	0x9d7000…
07-21 10:47:04	xauusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	10	7¢	$1	0xdfe78a…
07-21 10:45:06	xauusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	20	7¢	$1	0xa4af8c…
07-21 07:35:07	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	66	8¢	$5	0xdce41b…
07-21 06:54:30	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	50	92¢	$46	0x631604…
07-21 06:44:06	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	134	8¢	$11	0xb98204…
07-21 06:43:12	xauusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x75593c…
07-21 06:42:19	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xc38c32…
07-21 06:11:25	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0x013701…
07-21 06:10:24	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	6	9¢	$1	0x15b82c…
07-21 06:08:03	xagusd up or down on july 21 2026	Down	BUY	40	9¢	$4	0xb5348c…
07-21 05:03:51	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0x599bc5…
07-20 22:03:43	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0x5330ef…
07-20 22:02:54	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	71	94¢	$67	0xca4134…
07-20 22:02:40	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xee6207…
07-20 22:02:40	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xb5b9e1…
07-20 20:53:06	will ng dip to 2 60 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0xac1b53…
07-20 20:52:55	will ng dip to 2 60 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	93¢	$93	0x64661f…
07-20 20:52:45	will ng dip to 2 60 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	286	92¢	$264	0xa8fdbc…
07-20 20:46:04	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	SELL	40	25¢	$10	0xdf56c7…
07-20 20:35:37	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	32	30¢	$10	0x3eed92…
07-20 20:08:37	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0x05563b…
07-20 20:08:30	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	383	71¢	$272	0xb2b90a…
07-20 19:55:30	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x77081a…
07-20 19:55:19	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	100	30¢	$30	0x5f3f96…
07-20 19:54:54	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 20 2026	No	BUY	239	28¢	$67	0x8b4e07…
07-20 12:41:03	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	328	70¢	$229	0xa1a413…
07-19 22:50:39	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	328	63¢	$206	0x0d8208…
07-19 18:16:40	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	186	61¢	$113	0x87268f…
07-19 15:02:27	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	SELL	2,263	96¢	$2,162	0x1e14e0…
07-18 23:45:49	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	33	97¢	$32	0x50c36f…
07-18 15:08:55	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	SELL	24	98¢	$24	0x2e5682…
07-18 15:08:54	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	184	96¢	$176	0x9d0d71…
07-18 14:47:21	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	600	95¢	$570	0x8c2a42…
07-18 14:47:07	will ng reach 3 40 in july 2026	No	BUY	3,205	94¢	$3,000	0x17020f…
07-17 23:50:48	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	210	5¢	$9	0x7c960e…
07-17 23:50:27	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	91	4¢	$4	0x82f7b9…
07-17 23:49:40	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	35	4¢	$2	0x73aab0…
07-17 23:49:18	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x896679…
07-17 23:49:18	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0x64d80e…
07-17 23:49:16	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	2	5¢	$0	0xae19e3…
07-17 23:49:16	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	12	5¢	$1	0x33f273…
07-16 17:19:29	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	7	29¢	$2	0xaa3669…
07-16 15:05:52	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	14	91¢	$13	0xc4fcce…
07-16 14:56:53	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0xdca8df…
07-16 14:56:47	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	244	6¢	$14	0x085c03…
07-16 14:33:44	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	200	54¢	$108	0x0bd420…
07-16 14:32:37	will ng reach 3 10 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	147	4¢	$5	0x22357e…
07-14 19:03:34	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	321	12¢	$38	0xb095e6…
07-14 19:03:11	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	1	53¢	$1	0x290ca6…
07-14 19:03:04	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	507	60¢	$304	0xf7a699…
07-14 11:47:13	will ng reach 3 20 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	354	6¢	$21	0xc88083…
07-13 18:08:07	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	500	23¢	$115	0x27013d…
07-13 15:10:50	will ng reach 3 60 in july 2026	No	BUY	1,005	93¢	$934	0x9c727a…
07-13 11:23:23	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	1	57¢	$0	0x741daa…
07-13 10:49:01	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	303	22¢	$67	0xa77532…
07-12 23:47:05	will ng reach 3 20 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	36	38¢	$14	0x17811d…
07-12 23:34:35	will ng reach 3 20 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	313	9¢	$27	0x8dc808…
07-12 23:32:29	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	SELL	171	18¢	$31	0x91deda…
07-12 23:20:07	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	300	48¢	$144	0x1ec8d0…
07-12 23:18:55	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	474	8¢	$36	0x908898…
07-12 22:24:29	will ng reach 3 20 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	77	14¢	$11	0xc3feb0…
07-12 22:21:59	will ng reach 3 10 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	64	31¢	$20	0x29435b…
07-12 22:21:47	will ng reach 3 10 by july 13 2026	Yes	BUY	83	32¢	$27	0x763dd1…
07-10 21:42:10	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	50	0¢	$0	0x339f68…
07-10 19:11:28	ng up or down on july 10 2026	Up	SELL	355	1¢	$5	0xb9ed9e…
07-10 19:01:55	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	1,017	0¢	$2	0x16711c…
07-10 19:00:23	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	21	0¢	$0	0xac27d5…
07-10 19:00:16	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	50	0¢	$0	0x862ba0…
07-10 19:00:13	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	400	0¢	$0	0x822d4c…
07-10 16:33:43	ng up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	35	3¢	$1	0x924834…
07-10 16:12:17	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	584	16¢	$94	0x69304a…
07-10 15:25:52	ng up or down on july 10 2026	Up	BUY	320	4¢	$13	0x24cdd6…
07-10 14:50:28	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	402	8¢	$34	0x954176…
07-10 14:50:05	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0x8e00d4…
07-10 14:46:29	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	SELL	100	55¢	$55	0x485def…
07-10 14:46:02	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0xcccf21…
07-10 14:38:04	will 50 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	167	22¢	$36	0x58724a…
07-10 14:37:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2,000	4¢	$80	0xac7d55…
07-10 14:37:52	strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal by august 31 20260702154212320	Yes	SELL	1,500	17¢	$260	0x0291fc…
07-10 14:08:41	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	7	58¢	$4	0xc46526…
07-10 14:08:40	will ng dip to 2 80 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	400	58¢	$232	0x89d26a…
07-10 14:08:11	will ng dip to 2 60 in july 2026	Yes	BUY	905	12¢	$108	0x88cc6c…
07-10 13:58:02	will ng dip to 2 60 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	819	1¢	$8	0x951b35…
07-10 13:57:43	will ng dip to 2 70 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	1,038	2¢	$17	0x220235…
07-10 13:53:14	will ng dip to 2 90 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	480	100¢	$480	0x92e39a…
07-10 13:53:05	will ng dip to 2 80 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	1,369	5¢	$64	0xa80a33…
07-10 13:50:26	will ng dip to 2 90 by july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	160	80¢	$128	0x674af6…
07-10 12:22:52	will ng dip to 2 90 by july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	91	19¢	$17	0x57f3af…