Offensive-Lava — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

74.6%

Resolved

Trades

188

lifetime

Volume

$3.44K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$34

1 position

First seen

2026-03-26

last 06-16 00:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

43% — —

Other

40% 50% +$0

Sports

17% 50% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 11 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No		+73	$33	46¢	$34	+$1	06-03 21:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	11	$310	162	162	+0	open	—	05-20 06:36
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	7	$258	137	137	+0	Yes	+$0	04-21 10:49
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	11	$257	178	178	+0	No	+$0	04-18 02:29
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	10	$208	250	177	+73	open	—	06-03 21:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	9	$162	158	158	+0	open	—	06-09 22:13
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	10	$150	232	232	+0	open	—	05-30 01:22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	5	$141	129	129	+0	open	—	05-25 16:59
Will Alberta join the US?	7	$129	99	99	+0	open	—	06-04 20:41
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	7	$123	66	66	+0	open	—	05-29 06:10
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026?	7	$122	62	62	+0	open	—	05-22 01:38
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$99	116	116	+0	open	—	06-04 01:11
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?	7	$92	132	132	+0	open	—	04-15 06:58
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$88	45	45	+0	No	+$0	03-31 16:56
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$87	44	44	+0	open	—	04-04 00:41
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$87	44	44	+0	No	+$0	04-07 18:37
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$87	44	44	+0	open	—	04-23 12:33
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	2	$85	44	44	+0	open	—	05-18 17:55
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	5	$81	80	80	+0	open	—	04-20 19:53
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	3	$78	40	40	+0	open	—	04-21 14:44
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$77	40	40	+0	open	—	04-19 05:06
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	8	$71	90	90	+0	open	—	06-09 08:12
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	5	$69	67	67	+0	open	—	06-12 18:50
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	4	$65	46	46	+0	open	—	06-07 11:52
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$65	37	37	+0	open	—	06-10 13:22
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	3	$64	33	33	+0	open	—	05-31 06:45
will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	2	$64	34	34	+0	open	—	06-14 08:22
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	3	$63	33	33	+0	open	—	05-30 08:25
Netanyahu out by June 30?	2	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	06-16 00:49
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	4	$61	31	31	+0	open	—	06-15 21:24
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	4	$41	40	12	+28	open	—	06-14 15:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-17 01:09:13	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	9	92¢	$8	0x4ed732…
06-17 01:08:28	China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?	No	BUY	9	92¢	$8	0x1b3b2e…
06-16 00:49:18	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	31	99¢	$31	0xfc2bf4…
06-16 00:19:10	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x6612d1…
06-15 21:24:09	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	21	99¢	$21	0x5bb804…
06-15 21:24:09	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x081d0e…
06-15 17:32:31	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	25	98¢	$25	0xacbc2f…
06-15 17:32:30	Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30?	No	BUY	6	98¢	$6	0x141d70…
06-14 15:58:28	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xaf2585…
06-14 15:58:28	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	7	73¢	$5	0x32b957…
06-14 12:38:30	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	13	80¢	$10	0xa6f3d8…
06-14 12:38:07	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by july 31 2026	Yes	BUY	27	80¢	$22	0x8e849b…
06-14 08:22:33	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0xa85eb6…
06-14 03:28:07	will the united kingdom send warships through the strait of hormuz by june 30 2026	No	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x0adf8c…
06-12 18:50:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	8	52¢	$4	0xd85749…
06-12 18:50:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	29	52¢	$15	0x262494…
06-12 18:50:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	SELL	30	52¢	$16	0xdfd287…
06-12 16:46:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0xa33ad6…
06-12 16:46:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	No	BUY	39	51¢	$20	0x4d44dc…
06-12 11:12:43	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	34¢	$12	0xef0f01…
06-12 08:28:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	31	37¢	$11	0x841553…
06-12 08:28:33	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x40e5d0…
06-10 13:22:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	37	87¢	$32	0xc5730c…
06-10 10:37:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	37	88¢	$33	0x6afdfe…
06-09 22:13:25	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	28	55¢	$15	0x5a9b85…
06-09 22:13:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	31	55¢	$17	0x660fce…
06-09 19:34:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	38	55¢	$21	0x4452df…
06-09 19:34:22	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0x12055f…
06-09 08:12:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	14	40¢	$6	0x64ef43…
06-09 08:12:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x4e63fc…
06-09 08:12:42	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	32	40¢	$13	0x0f658d…
06-09 07:07:09	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	51	40¢	$20	0x987a28…
06-09 00:18:06	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	4	39¢	$2	0xd0c428…
06-09 00:18:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0xa71cfc…
06-09 00:18:04	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	SELL	30	39¢	$12	0x3a71b7…
06-08 22:12:28	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	No	BUY	39	39¢	$15	0x5f813c…
06-07 11:52:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	15	71¢	$11	0xb1413d…
06-07 11:52:39	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	SELL	31	71¢	$22	0x065b58…
06-07 10:37:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0xc1e609…
06-07 10:37:09	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	No	BUY	36	71¢	$26	0x3815b3…
06-07 06:48:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	47¢	$4	0x962fa7…
06-07 06:48:12	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	47¢	$13	0x6c264b…
06-07 05:07:19	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	36	47¢	$17	0xccd149…
06-06 08:53:45	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	63	50¢	$32	0xec5348…
06-06 04:38:07	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	63	50¢	$32	0xc02c94…
06-05 23:55:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	7	4¢	$0	0xb4132c…
06-05 23:55:39	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	34	4¢	$1	0x572f66…
06-05 22:44:07	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	41	4¢	$2	0x40b845…
06-04 20:41:24	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	SELL	33	5¢	$1	0xd6e306…
06-04 19:18:31	Will Alberta join the US?	Yes	BUY	33	5¢	$1	0x8f305c…
06-04 01:11:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	36	20¢	$7	0xadd217…
06-04 00:50:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	17	20¢	$3	0xde873d…
06-04 00:50:45	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	19	20¢	$4	0x83d8df…
06-03 21:12:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	61	53¢	$32	0x276fe9…
06-03 19:12:30	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	61	52¢	$32	0xbfca29…
06-03 09:19:28	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	17	96¢	$16	0x8a91ea…
06-03 09:19:26	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x3ea05a…
06-03 05:13:51	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x06fed5…
06-02 18:13:50	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	33	96¢	$32	0xf81fc5…
06-02 13:59:21	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0x91bfac…
06-02 04:15:21	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	25	20¢	$5	0xcae264…
06-02 04:15:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xc679b1…
06-02 02:22:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	28	20¢	$6	0xae5cfb…
06-02 02:22:27	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	7	20¢	$1	0x17b851…
06-01 22:06:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	6	1¢	$0	0x75bfdf…
06-01 22:06:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	SELL	76	1¢	$1	0x3f6496…
06-01 20:03:15	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	BUY	82	1¢	$1	0x8fdee6…
05-31 06:45:25	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	SELL	33	98¢	$32	0x06d63a…
05-31 05:15:56	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	31	97¢	$30	0x0aa835…
05-31 05:15:54	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x01ecf1…
05-31 01:48:03	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	SELL	36	51¢	$18	0x3aace4…
05-31 00:14:31	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Yes	BUY	36	51¢	$18	0x3f7033…
05-30 14:41:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	9	93¢	$8	0x6b249a…
05-30 13:12:59	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x751833…
05-30 08:25:16	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	31	97¢	$30	0x1d4741…
05-30 08:25:14	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0x78fb9a…
05-30 04:15:39	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	33	96¢	$32	0xe01e8e…
05-30 01:22:10	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x9ba931…
05-30 00:15:21	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x9e49c2…
05-29 19:09:57	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	45	76¢	$34	0xbea2d2…
05-29 17:31:08	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	45	79¢	$36	0x7e0206…
05-29 07:32:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x92ddfe…
05-29 07:32:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x8c15ca…
05-29 07:32:04	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	64	46¢	$29	0x359720…
05-29 06:10:24	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	95¢	$29	0x45edcc…
05-29 06:09:37	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	30	95¢	$29	0x5bd7e9…
05-28 23:10:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	15	46¢	$7	0xf91f77…
05-28 23:10:05	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	SELL	65	46¢	$30	0x80b32f…
05-28 21:31:44	US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	BUY	80	46¢	$37	0xb32876…
05-28 01:29:01	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	98¢	$13	0x8bea62…
05-27 21:39:27	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	98¢	$13	0x1447b0…
05-27 19:07:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	92¢	$13	0xd200f7…
05-27 19:07:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	17	92¢	$16	0x928ec7…
05-27 19:07:22	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0x5ba1f7…
05-27 17:01:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x94c3a8…
05-27 17:01:49	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	90¢	$6	0x6fbf6e…
05-25 16:59:35	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	38¢	$28	0x76b3d5…
05-25 15:53:41	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	39¢	$23	0x9d6ffd…
05-25 15:53:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	39¢	$6	0xcdd7af…
05-24 19:35:05	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	SELL	73	5¢	$4	0x326bfb…