Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.28K

Unrealized P&L

-$136

Hit rate

25.9%

Resolved

Trades

488

lifetime

Volume

$23.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$48

Open exposure

$1.40K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-27

last 10-24 14:45

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 24 days

Categories

Politics

52% 31% -$468

Other

44% 50% -$787

Tech

2% — —

Crypto

1% — —

Sports

0% 0% -$24

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 50 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	-1,000	-$500	68¢	$-685	-$185	08-25 10:50
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	-1,000	-$350	32¢	$-315	+$35	10-08 03:26
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	+200	$124	66¢	$133	+$9	10-23 11:56
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	+100	$75	94¢	$94	+$18	10-08 03:28
Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	-71	-$69	97¢	$-69	+$1	10-20 07:17
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	+200	$81	34¢	$67	-$14	10-24 03:20
Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	+38	$38	99¢	$38	+$0	09-09 10:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	30	$4.6K	14,800	14,800	+0	No	-$422	04-22 06:18
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	20	$2.2K	4,922	3,510	+1,412	No	-$352	04-22 02:09
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	71	$1.9K	7,622	8,619	-997	No	+$20	04-22 15:05
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 24 2026	57	$1.9K	6,387	6,794	-407	No	-$17	04-22 23:51
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	19	$1.7K	2,539	2,539	+0	Yes	-$13	05-30 11:24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	22	$1.6K	3,271	3,871	-600	Yes	-$478	05-30 11:37
us and iran sign an agreement by june 30 2026 20260611221049853	75	$1.1K	2,259	2,259	+0	Yes	+$28	06-14 01:39
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	1	$993	1,000	0	+1,000	Yes	+$7	01-27 15:08
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	31	$973	1,500	1,500	+0	Yes	-$21	06-13 16:32
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$850	0	2,000	-2,000	open	—	10-08 03:26
Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	14	$495	980	20	+960	No	-$10	06-20 06:54
fed rate cut by january 2026 meeting 412	1	$430	433	0	+433	No	+$3	01-27 15:05
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	7	$411	400	400	+0	open	—	10-23 20:18
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	4	$345	300	300	+0	Yes	-$3	07-30 11:30
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	8	$284	300	300	+0	Yes	-$4	07-30 08:53
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	3	$269	526	526	-0	Yes	-$5	06-20 23:23
us x iran diplomatic meeting by june 16 2026 20260612160513701	12	$244	930	930	+0	No	-$16	06-13 16:27
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	19	$234	448	48	+400	open	—	10-24 03:20
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	2	$233	121	121	+0	open	—	10-23 03:29
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	7	$231	251	251	+0	Yes	-$13	06-20 23:22
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	11	$224	200	200	+0	open	—	10-24 03:21
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$223	112	112	+0	No	+$0	04-21 11:59
Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	7	$216	342	342	+0	open	—	10-23 17:01
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	9	$205	409	409	+0	No	+$49	04-22 13:40
will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	7	$199	295	295	+0	Yes	+$0	06-20 09:55
Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	6	$166	101	101	+0	open	—	10-24 14:45
Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	3	$112	150	150	+0	No	-$7	07-30 16:15
trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	1	$106	107	0	+107	No	+$1	07-02 10:31
Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?	2	$98	900	900	+0	open	—	10-20 13:51
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	2	$96	50	50	+0	open	—	09-09 10:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 14:45:33	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	SELL	1	18¢	$0	0xf58778…
10-24 03:21:11	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	41	50¢	$20	0x0b1a57…
10-24 03:20:56	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	SELL	48	30¢	$14	0xc30f82…
10-24 03:20:11	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x482150…
10-24 03:19:53	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	SELL	70	42¢	$29	0xd46f0b…
10-24 02:44:36	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0x79d68e…
10-24 02:44:35	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0x9d8e1d…
10-23 20:18:27	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	SELL	100	51¢	$51	0xe45d3f…
10-23 17:46:12	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	70	60¢	$42	0xc10bb7…
10-23 17:01:33	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	208	32¢	$67	0x46ee73…
10-23 17:01:23	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	20	52¢	$10	0x7b5247…
10-23 14:36:48	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0xc77aa4…
10-23 14:36:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	30	43¢	$13	0x9a5c58…
10-23 14:08:23	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x2d195a…
10-23 14:08:15	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	SELL	20	42¢	$8	0xd517d9…
10-23 14:07:57	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	150	32¢	$48	0x48c1a9…
10-23 14:06:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	10	52¢	$5	0x651935…
10-23 14:06:18	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	50	51¢	$26	0xd751d7…
10-23 14:05:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	99	55¢	$54	0x7e2a8d…
10-23 14:05:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	SELL	100	50¢	$50	0xd9e07e…
10-23 13:59:35	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	82	32¢	$26	0x96fdb2…
10-23 11:56:12	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	10	62¢	$6	0xe267c0…
10-23 11:56:12	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	45	62¢	$28	0xbf10d7…
10-23 11:56:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0xc956bd…
10-23 11:50:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x03e918…
10-23 11:47:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	33	59¢	$19	0xaa26ff…
10-23 11:45:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	30	62¢	$19	0xc25c5d…
10-23 11:45:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0x8733aa…
10-23 11:37:03	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	37¢	$37	0xbbc87a…
10-23 11:08:18	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xa149dc…
10-23 10:45:27	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x3d68a8…
10-23 10:45:11	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	101	59¢	$60	0x27c1aa…
10-23 10:45:09	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	SELL	200	52¢	$104	0x396041…
10-23 09:50:47	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0xa6f52e…
10-23 09:48:33	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6a71d8…
10-23 09:47:45	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x474b4e…
10-23 09:47:11	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xbe9166…
10-23 09:46:39	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x1f687e…
10-23 09:46:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6ab853…
10-23 09:45:56	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0xd6df0a…
10-23 09:45:38	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x3c1a13…
10-23 09:39:45	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.65% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	58	62¢	$36	0xe2b45d…
10-23 09:24:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0x82d6c7…
10-23 09:24:00	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	51¢	$51	0xbb5b81…
10-23 09:14:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xa12510…
10-23 09:14:35	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	19	59¢	$11	0x740ac2…
10-23 09:11:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x47f7df…
10-23 09:05:57	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.60% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x40e359…
10-23 08:32:20	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xf0de96…
10-23 08:19:05	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	SELL	47	32¢	$15	0x696077…
10-23 07:30:12	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.55% before 2027?	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0xba69ab…
10-23 03:55:20	Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0xd564f2…
10-23 03:40:26	Will Anthropic IPO by November 20, 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xff2602…
10-23 03:38:29	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	31¢	$31	0x42a9ea…
10-23 03:33:26	Will Anthropic IPO by November 25, 2026?	No	BUY	92	30¢	$28	0x6fcf84…
10-23 03:31:26	will the 5 year treasury yield dip below 4pt55 before 2027	No	BUY	100	52¢	$52	0x9c85ba…
10-23 03:29:06	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	121	97¢	$117	0x18da86…
10-20 13:51:23	Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	SELL	900	5¢	$46	0x1b0b80…
10-20 08:18:46	Will TheBurntPeanut win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xd92153…
10-20 07:22:17	Will the Republican Party win the OH-01 House seat?	Yes	BUY	900	6¢	$52	0xded15f…
10-20 07:18:35	Will TheBurntPeanut win Gamer of the Year at the 2026 Streamer Awards?	Yes	BUY	100	14¢	$14	0x93ac97…
10-20 07:17:05	Will Anthropic be acquired before 2027?	No	SELL	71	98¢	$69	0x0835b9…
10-08 03:28:47	Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	100	75¢	$75	0xfd7ce6…
10-08 03:26:59	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1,000	35¢	$350	0xd4e789…
09-09 10:06:48	Will Napoli win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	No	BUY	38	99¢	$38	0x1017bd…
09-09 10:06:13	Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x75f804…
08-25 10:50:01	Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	No	SELL	1,000	50¢	$500	0xcc1d2f…
07-30 16:15:32	Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	SELL	150	35¢	$52	0x68ae48…
07-30 15:41:14	Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	50	35¢	$18	0x85edf9…
07-30 13:49:09	Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	121	96¢	$116	0x47c3c7…
07-30 11:30:33	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	286	57¢	$163	0xf0faf5…
07-30 11:05:24	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	9	57¢	$5	0x63c3d3…
07-30 10:42:48	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	SELL	6	57¢	$3	0x299d0b…
07-30 08:53:59	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	177	46¢	$82	0x9995e0…
07-30 08:32:56	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	No	BUY	300	58¢	$174	0xf42037…
07-30 08:30:18	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	5	48¢	$2	0xde5ab5…
07-30 08:25:50	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	21	48¢	$10	0x6bb6c0…
07-30 08:08:29	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	42	48¢	$20	0x07fc8b…
07-30 07:52:06	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	49	48¢	$24	0x79b2da…
07-30 07:44:18	Will "Hacks" win 4 or 5 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0xae9e41…
07-30 07:43:44	Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	SELL	100	33¢	$33	0xd91c55…
07-30 07:41:03	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0x40b6c2…
07-30 07:31:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	SELL	3	48¢	$2	0x9dbb0d…
07-30 07:29:57	Will "Hacks" win 2 or 3 awards at the Emmys?	Yes	BUY	100	33¢	$33	0x16155b…
07-30 07:27:11	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	No	BUY	300	48¢	$144	0x51cf3e…
07-02 10:31:32	trump out as president by july 31 20260626202639374	No	BUY	107	99¢	$106	0x667724…
07-02 10:31:02	netanyahu out by july 31	No	BUY	31	99¢	$31	0x1460d2…
06-20 23:23:01	Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%?	Yes	SELL	496	25¢	$124	0x34adcb…
06-20 23:22:20	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	SELL	200	42¢	$84	0x42832e…
06-20 17:56:14	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	188	49¢	$92	0xf76bbe…
06-20 14:34:29	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x36b126…
06-20 14:32:28	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	7	49¢	$4	0x0e381d…
06-20 14:17:05	Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xbc9db4…
06-20 09:55:10	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	124	34¢	$42	0x117357…
06-20 09:33:56	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	94	34¢	$32	0x12e055…
06-20 09:33:02	will xauusd dip to 4000 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	65	34¢	$22	0xdbd8cb…
06-20 06:54:04	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	37	91¢	$34	0x5dc6e5…
06-20 06:53:44	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	20	89¢	$18	0x15be34…
06-20 06:51:55	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xe1d7ca…
06-20 06:50:50	Will Keir Starmer be a candidate in the next Labour Party leadership election?	No	BUY	30	86¢	$26	0x546cf8…