Outlying-Tritone — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$713

Unrealized P&L

-$16

Hit rate

59.7%

Resolved

329

Trades

583

lifetime

Volume

$13.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$23

Open exposure

$152

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-09

last 10-22 13:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 90 days

Categories

Other

45% 44% +$155

Politics

25% 55% -$122

Crypto

19% 60% -$632

Tech

9% 53% -$94

Sports

1% 33% -$20

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

22 active days in 12wk • peak 30 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	+213	$100	34¢	$73	-$27	10-13 03:39
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+62	$50	90¢	$56	+$6	10-14 02:47
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?	Yes	+43	$13	41¢	$18	+$5	07-21 08:31
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Yes	+7	$5	68¢	$5	$0	10-20 09:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
highest temperature in paris on april 11 2026 19c	11	$1.2K	670	668	+2	No	-$15	04-10 08:12
highest temperature in singapore on april 10 2026 34c	2	$903	458	458	+1	No	+$11	04-10 06:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 08:10 UTC	2	$700	783	771	+12	Down	-$522	04-10 08:14
trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	11	$392	265	265	+0	No	+$9	06-26 02:03
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	5	$389	205	205	+0	Yes	+$19	06-17 02:34
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	4	$338	185	185	+0	Yes	+$9	06-19 00:03
highest temperature in singapore on april 10 2026 33c	3	$321	176	175	+1	No	+$27	04-10 07:05
will the text of the us iran agreement be released by june 16 20260615224555000	4	$312	186	167	+19	No	-$12	06-17 06:46
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$309	157	157	+0	Yes	+$3	06-17 02:44
will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 17	2	$280	147	147	+0	No	$0	07-15 17:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	4	$279	152	152	+0	Down	-$1	06-17 08:09
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	2	$221	122	122	+0	No	+$21	07-31 06:19
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 30	3	$211	159	119	+40	No	+$11	06-26 00:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	3	$203	159	159	+0	Yes	+$3	06-09 16:19
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	2	$195	119	119	+0	open	—	07-14 23:45
fifwc tun jpn 2026 06 21 btts	1	$194	234	0	+234	No	+$40	06-21 05:32
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 08:10 UTC	1	$190	194	0	+194	Up	+$4	06-19 08:13
us x iran diplomatic meeting by july 10 2026 20260622191708360	4	$181	249	249	+0	No	-$19	07-03 18:17
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	2	$178	129	129	+0	open	—	08-08 07:41
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	1	$161	194	0	+194	Yes	+$33	06-19 02:40
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 4?	2	$151	77	77	+0	No	+$1	07-04 01:17
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-19 15:40 UTC	1	$151	154	0	+154	Up	+$3	06-19 15:42
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:50 UTC	1	$150	153	0	+153	Up	+$3	06-17 03:53
gpt 5pt6 released by july 15 2026	2	$146	241	241	+0	Yes	-$49	07-01 00:45
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	1	$145	165	0	+165	Yes	+$20	06-18 02:41
gpt 5pt6 released by july 8 2026 789	2	$132	85	85	+0	No	+$34	07-08 04:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-10 05:45 UTC	2	$132	72	72	+0	Down	+$12	08-10 05:51
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	2	$131	86	86	+0	No	+$31	06-20 14:41
fifwc nld swe 2026 06 20 spread home 2pt5	1	$128	170	0	+170	Netherlands	+$43	06-20 18:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-10 08:15 UTC	2	$121	100	98	+1	Up	-$46	04-10 08:18

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 13:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xd89b25…
10-22 13:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	1	3¢	$0	0x56a012…
10-22 13:34:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	22	3¢	$1	0x530a6a…
10-22 13:28:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xb3e733…
10-22 13:24:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xf09088…
10-22 13:16:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	SELL	33	6¢	$2	0x064d97…
10-22 13:15:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	16	3¢	$0	0x289ff4…
10-22 13:15:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET	Down	BUY	17	3¢	$0	0x9e6ca2…
10-22 13:13:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	SELL	33	14¢	$5	0xec88ad…
10-22 13:13:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x14fafe…
10-21 14:40:33	XRP Up or Down on October 21?	Down	SELL	75	1¢	$1	0x437285…
10-21 13:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21?	Down	SELL	50	10¢	$5	0x014367…
10-21 13:04:39	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0xcbbf4a…
10-21 12:20:09	XRP Up or Down on October 21?	Down	BUY	75	3¢	$2	0xdb799e…
10-21 08:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0xceb268…
10-21 08:46:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4AM ET	Down	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0xdf6810…
10-21 08:45:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 21, 4AM ET	Down	BUY	50	7¢	$4	0x8c245c…
10-20 14:08:03	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 20?	Down	BUY	57	7¢	$4	0x3f7512…
10-20 09:33:35	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0x92fc36…
10-20 09:31:32	Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x3c36d4…
10-20 09:31:08	GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Yes	SELL	45	3¢	$1	0x309233…
10-19 07:50:36	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?	Down	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x3be1f3…
10-19 07:32:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 19?	Down	BUY	80	5¢	$4	0x9d9164…
10-19 07:26:24	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	SELL	22	97¢	$22	0xf84c04…
10-18 13:47:57	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-18?	Yes	BUY	18	58¢	$10	0x4a3d54…
10-14 02:49:32	katie zacharia out as press secretary by october 31	No	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x76320d…
10-14 02:49:01	Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x6ad2b0…
10-14 02:47:49	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	62	81¢	$50	0x72884e…
10-13 19:00:12	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x3ca0d3…
10-13 18:56:58	Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	89¢	$10	0x1fbdb9…
10-13 06:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xc0dfdd…
10-13 05:47:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	SELL	3	53¢	$2	0x2310ff…
10-13 05:47:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xabfc27…
10-13 03:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET	Down	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x066e7e…
10-13 03:47:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x087dc4…
10-13 03:46:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 12, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xa57af0…
10-13 03:45:41	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-13?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0xc01a28…
10-13 03:39:41	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Yes	BUY	213	47¢	$100	0x69052f…
10-08 18:28:59	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-10-10?	Yes	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x63b600…
09-11 12:13:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	18¢	$1	0xde024d…
09-11 12:12:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xb2e7ab…
09-10 12:59:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x6403b4…
09-10 12:59:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x8fbff3…
09-10 12:56:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	SELL	9	13¢	$1	0xebd16a…
09-10 12:56:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5c844c…
09-10 12:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0xf13caf…
09-10 12:52:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x9d9bd8…
09-10 12:20:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	0	25¢	$0	0x432910…
09-10 12:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf189fa…
09-10 12:20:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xad9d1d…
09-10 12:15:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Up	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xb5ebec…
09-10 12:00:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	7	50¢	$3	0xe3a536…
09-10 12:00:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x1eab1d…
09-10 11:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0xd1f684…
09-10 11:55:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x4ba7fc…
09-10 11:53:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x17f90b…
09-10 11:52:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	SELL	9	5¢	$0	0xec3efc…
09-10 11:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	9	23¢	$2	0x7aee27…
09-10 11:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$3	0xa0eeb8…
09-10 11:31:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x9279bd…
09-10 11:30:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	7	41¢	$3	0x92869e…
09-10 11:26:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	SELL	5	53¢	$3	0x523646…
09-10 11:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET	Down	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x41a415…
09-10 11:22:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	SELL	7	44¢	$3	0x285e1e…
09-10 11:20:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc8196b…
09-10 11:19:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xd5de50…
09-10 11:18:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x557aae…
09-10 11:18:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	10¢	$1	0x965663…
09-10 11:15:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Down	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x9ce567…
09-10 11:09:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x5e1356…
09-10 11:08:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 10, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0x9960be…
09-09 18:19:16	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	Yes	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xbe5131…
09-09 18:09:36	Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by October 31?	Yes	BUY	15	88¢	$13	0xb642b4…
09-09 09:13:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-09 09:10 UTC	Up	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x2ff215…
09-09 09:10:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-09 09:10 UTC	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x51431b…
09-09 09:05:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-09 09:05 UTC	Up	BUY	6	30¢	$2	0xb53926…
09-09 09:00:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-09-09 09:00 UTC	Up	BUY	10	18¢	$2	0x84d972…
09-09 08:58:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	SELL	5	70¢	$4	0x06f65d…
09-09 08:55:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x25cfc5…
09-09 08:36:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xb2094d…
09-09 08:35:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0xfdbca9…
09-09 08:25:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x171fd9…
09-09 08:25:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x8a9c4a…
09-08 09:56:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	SELL	5	50¢	$2	0x0726aa…
09-08 09:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	5	35¢	$2	0x74a263…
09-08 08:26:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xc81198…
09-08 08:23:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	4	46¢	$2	0xe11549…
09-08 08:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	BUY	4	35¢	$2	0x6f9fd8…
09-08 04:12:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	SELL	6	16¢	$1	0x77f299…
09-08 04:10:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Up	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x998605…
09-08 04:00:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	SELL	5	52¢	$3	0x160f8c…
09-08 04:00:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET	Up	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x437ea7…
09-08 03:58:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	55¢	$2	0xef1fdd…
09-08 03:56:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x94ccdf…
09-08 03:43:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xd68bc9…
09-08 03:42:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - September 7, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Up	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0xc67f99…
09-08 03:41:55	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on September 8?	No	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x4ca1a6…
09-08 03:40:42	Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?	No	SELL	10	85¢	$9	0x37dbd4…
09-07 13:56:55	Will OpenAI announce a clip-on device for clothing in 2026?	No	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0xbbb842…
08-18 05:42:16	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-08-18 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	65	93¢	$60	0x73f879…