Critical-Depression — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$144

Unrealized P&L

+$125

Hit rate

96.5%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

2,682 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$98

$58.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$22

Open exposure

$308

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 09-10 09:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 39 days

Categories

Other

67% 73% +$544

Crypto

26% 85% -$197

Politics

7% 50% -$1,509

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	+138	$74	92¢	$127	+$53	05-07 16:30
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	+100	$45	95¢	$95	+$50	06-16 15:52
Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	+100	$64	86¢	$86	+$22	05-19 13:25

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will russia capture hryshyne by march 31 2026 299	6	$2.3K	2,419	2,419	+0	Yes	-$1,097	03-03 14:31
will russia capture kostyantynivka by march 31 872 578	11	$2.2K	2,708	0	+2,708	No	+$523	03-30 17:45
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	5	$2.2K	1,176	1,176	+0	No	+$165	03-19 23:42
will russia capture lyman by april 30 2026	11	$2.1K	2,368	0	+2,368	No	+$245	04-28 23:35
will russia capture lyman by february 28 2026	2	$2.1K	1,087	1,087	+0	No	+$84	02-27 22:32
will russia capture all of prymorske by february 28 2026	2	$2.1K	1,093	1,093	+0	No	+$82	02-22 23:43
will russia capture hryshyne by february 28 2026	4	$2.1K	1,076	1,076	+0	No	+$67	02-27 22:33
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by february 28	5	$2.0K	1,238	1,238	+0	Yes	+$2	02-15 00:13
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	53	$1.9K	1,162	1,313	-151	No	+$61	06-05 02:15
will russia capture all of vovchansk by march 31	6	$1.8K	1,058	1,058	+0	No	+$307	03-22 12:38
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	8	$1.6K	1,836	0	+1,836	No	+$188	06-15 07:18
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	1	$1.5K	2,100	0	+2,100	Yes	-$1,512	04-29 17:21
will russia capture lyman by march 31 2026 494	4	$1.3K	1,424	0	+1,424	No	+$124	03-24 23:19
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by february 28 2026	2	$1.2K	696	696	+0	No	+$184	02-23 19:11
will russia capture lyman by january 31 2026	1	$1000	1,056	0	+1,056	No	+$56	01-15 16:12
will russia capture all of stepnohirsk by march 31 2026 627	5	$988	1,102	0	+1,102	No	+$114	03-30 22:56
will russia capture all of pokrovsk by january 31	1	$918	1,011	0	+1,011	No	+$93	01-15 16:15
will russia capture pokrovka by march 31	8	$882	845	191	+654	No	+$46	03-29 21:54
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	14	$879	1,042	0	+1,042	No	+$163	05-17 13:56
bitcoin up or down on march 17 2026	3	$819	414	414	+0	Up	+$7	03-17 16:59
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-14 11:00 UTC	7	$800	819	0	+819	Up	+$19	03-14 11:14
Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	4	$769	830	0	+830	No	+$61	05-12 23:20
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by january 31 425	2	$680	698	500	+198	No	+$378	01-14 22:52
will russia enter verkhnia tersa by march 31 2026	9	$677	733	733	+0	No	+$38	03-06 05:53
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by April 30?	30	$655	700	10	+690	No	+$55	04-30 23:07
will russia enter bilytske by february 28	2	$645	885	885	+0	Yes	-$555	02-25 18:00
will russia capture rodynske by march 31	6	$618	600	600	+0	Yes	-$54	03-05 02:45
will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	6	$574	700	0	+700	No	+$126	06-28 12:43
will russia capture all of huliaipole by march 31	5	$550	500	500	+0	No	+$90	03-06 08:48
will russia capture all of myrnohrad by february 28	2	$505	877	877	+0	Yes	-$495	02-05 00:20

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
09-10 09:08:42	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	100	95¢	$95	0xbb30a6…
09-10 02:37:19	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0x927467…
09-10 01:54:36	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	79¢	$1	0xecd5d7…
07-25 22:21:28	will russia capture novodmytrivka by july 31 20260714215009495	No	BUY	103	98¢	$101	0xd4551e…
07-25 22:20:01	will russia capture serhiivka by july 31	No	BUY	380	98¢	$373	0x8bb36a…
07-25 22:18:03	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	62	98¢	$61	0xed6765…
07-25 22:17:46	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	363	96¢	$350	0xffaca9…
07-25 22:17:45	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	35	96¢	$34	0x7b3aa6…
07-25 22:16:49	will russia capture toretske by july 31 2026	No	BUY	93	97¢	$90	0x89e08e…
07-14 14:07:38	will russia capture pokrovka by july 31	No	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xf5fbef…
07-09 01:18:59	will russia capture verkhnia tersa by july 31	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x6e394e…
07-08 21:59:31	will russia capture toretske by july 31 2026	No	BUY	44	87¢	$38	0xf49702…
06-28 12:43:20	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	133	81¢	$108	0x517fa4…
06-28 09:09:22	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	13	81¢	$11	0x53c175…
06-28 09:02:46	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	288	83¢	$239	0x3dd5df…
06-19 22:22:49	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xec6bf4…
06-17 00:06:19	will russia capture mala tokmachka by september 30 2026	No	BUY	153	81¢	$124	0x190bf0…
06-16 15:52:20	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	45¢	$30	0x1d84bd…
06-16 15:52:17	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	7	45¢	$3	0xc7ee25…
06-16 15:52:13	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xebf696…
06-16 15:52:13	Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xe7f1fa…
06-15 07:18:16	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	91¢	$455	0x3224da…
06-05 02:15:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1,104	80¢	$883	0xe48073…
06-04 21:19:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	31	80¢	$24	0x54cd1c…
06-04 21:17:58	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xb1e46d…
06-04 21:08:06	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x415db3…
06-04 21:07:51	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x5f8833…
06-04 20:57:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x5a440f…
06-04 20:48:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x69ee30…
06-04 20:38:00	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x774fef…
06-04 20:27:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xceac09…
06-04 20:00:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x52bad9…
06-04 19:50:22	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x5a6e22…
06-04 19:40:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x0b7c13…
06-04 19:20:30	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x89d9aa…
06-04 19:20:15	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x2dd350…
06-04 19:10:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8a1ca7…
06-04 18:50:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x9dcbff…
06-04 18:40:15	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x65b44c…
06-04 18:30:16	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8cc99b…
06-04 18:20:15	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x364cc9…
06-04 18:10:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x1605da…
06-04 18:06:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	39	80¢	$31	0x7dffb0…
06-04 18:00:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xae4716…
06-04 18:00:13	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xc3ca5f…
06-04 17:40:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xf0da3c…
06-04 17:30:54	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	5	80¢	$4	0x7f490f…
06-04 17:30:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xd130ae…
06-04 17:30:12	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xd861f5…
06-04 17:20:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x92c7b5…
06-04 17:10:19	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x5bcd58…
06-04 17:00:49	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x4a7c12…
06-04 17:00:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8d38c7…
06-04 16:50:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x57346b…
06-04 16:40:45	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xb54a0e…
06-04 16:30:36	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x8a2bfd…
06-04 16:30:18	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xb773e2…
06-04 16:10:31	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x9966e3…
06-04 16:00:21	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xf332ed…
06-04 15:50:25	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x7e2a66…
06-04 15:49:58	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xd4603e…
06-04 14:09:24	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x091be2…
06-04 14:07:03	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	6	80¢	$5	0x1c0269…
06-04 13:50:48	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0xfab9b3…
06-04 13:12:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0xcc30c1…
05-28 23:33:55	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	436	92¢	$400	0xd630f3…
05-28 23:33:32	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	269	74¢	$200	0x76a95d…
05-26 01:52:27	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	25	77¢	$19	0x4c7b45…
05-26 00:39:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	44	77¢	$34	0xd092d2…
05-26 00:38:01	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	31	77¢	$24	0xba913a…
05-23 04:09:50	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x2e6eed…
05-21 15:42:15	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	167	79¢	$132	0x6c088f…
05-20 23:18:31	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	24	79¢	$19	0x929a52…
05-20 18:37:24	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by May 31?	No	BUY	200	97¢	$194	0x6325f2…
05-19 13:25:25	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x82782f…
05-18 06:40:19	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	84¢	$168	0x30a9f0…
05-17 13:56:59	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	110	94¢	$103	0x78c6cc…
05-17 10:10:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	1	94¢	$1	0xb23f7f…
05-17 08:11:11	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	83	94¢	$78	0x349511…
05-17 00:15:53	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x53b9a2…
05-16 23:33:32	Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by September 30?	No	BUY	9	79¢	$7	0x0f7d27…
05-16 22:21:52	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	200	71¢	$142	0x9dc40d…
05-16 14:41:28	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	200	72¢	$144	0x4567ee…
05-16 09:42:04	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	87¢	$14	0x6c0626…
05-16 05:57:07	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	167	90¢	$150	0x56f855…
05-16 03:52:01	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	184	87¢	$160	0x5a128c…
05-16 01:08:23	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x9d6723…
05-15 23:33:15	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	120	25¢	$30	0xe8233b…
05-15 23:32:07	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?	No	BUY	150	70¢	$105	0xc4f801…
05-13 07:46:37	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x650e05…
05-12 23:21:09	Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	200	92¢	$184	0xdf50fc…
05-12 23:20:43	Will Russia capture Lyman by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	300	96¢	$289	0xe2baa2…
05-12 23:20:08	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	100	85¢	$85	0x57de09…
05-12 17:41:37	Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	100	53¢	$53	0x0175d4…
05-12 16:32:39	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$5	0x9f6a4a…
05-11 17:24:57	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	5	91¢	$4	0x766075…
05-10 16:37:25	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	11	91¢	$10	0x31eeca…
05-10 10:11:47	Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by May 31?	No	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x1ab821…
05-10 00:25:13	Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31?	No	BUY	200	87¢	$174	0x62c829…
05-09 23:41:57	Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31?	No	BUY	200	80¢	$160	0x21625b…