Fine-Reluctance — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$8

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$3.61K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$129

Open exposure

$13

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-25 12:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 19 days

Categories

Other

50% 100% +$4

Crypto

40% 100% +$2

Tech

10% 100% +$2

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

4 active days in 12wk • peak 3 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (25) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No		+7	$7	100¢	$7	$0	10-08 09:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No		+6	$6	98¢	$6	+$0	10-08 09:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	2	$521	417	104	+313	No	+$0	01-22 11:38
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	1	$404	406	0	+406	No	+$2	02-02 14:05
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	1	$383	383	0	+383	No	+$0	05-14 15:56
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	1	$381	382	0	+382	No	+$1	04-08 16:12
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$367	367	0	+367	No	+$0	07-08 12:58
will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	1	$357	358	0	+358	No	+$1	03-04 08:25
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	1	$355	357	0	+357	Yes	+$2	06-02 11:49
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	1	$355	355	0	+355	No	+$0	06-21 14:39
will bnb dip to 200 in august	1	$138	138	0	+138	No	+$0	08-04 12:23
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	1	$104	104	0	+104	No	+$0	01-22 11:39
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	1	$42	42	0	+42	No	+$0	10-08 09:48
Will Solana dip to $20 in September?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	09-22 15:02
Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	1	$37	37	0	+37	No	+$0	10-25 12:59
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$34	34	0	+34	No	+$0	09-08 10:44
will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	1	$25	25	0	+25	No	+$0	03-19 09:39
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	1	$8	8	0	+8	No	+$0	07-21 07:57
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	1	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	05-24 10:44
Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	1	$7	7	0	+7	open	—	10-08 09:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	open	—	10-08 09:49
Will Solana reach $160 in April?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	04-20 14:23
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	07-21 07:58
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	08-04 12:24
spx opens up or down on july 8 2026	1	$6	6	0	+6	Down	+$0	07-08 12:59
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	1	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	05-14 15:57
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	06-02 11:48
will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	1	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	08-04 12:25
will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	1	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	02-02 14:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-25 12:59:33	Will XRP reach $4.00 in October?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x1eb484…
10-08 09:49:42	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	97¢	$6	0x13dcfd…
10-08 09:49:14	Will Isabel Díaz Ayuso be the next Prime Minister of Spain?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd459a0…
10-08 09:48:23	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xe51fb7…
09-22 15:02:34	Will Solana dip to $20 in September?	No	BUY	37	100¢	$37	0x93efd7…
09-08 10:44:09	Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	No	BUY	34	100¢	$34	0x439966…
08-04 12:25:05	will dogecoin reach 0pt2 in august 2026	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x345fb0…
08-04 12:24:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x0c2a28…
08-04 12:23:38	will bnb dip to 200 in august	No	BUY	138	100¢	$138	0xddbf8d…
07-21 07:58:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x662ab4…
07-21 07:57:33	Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	8	98¢	$8	0x62b568…
07-08 12:59:04	spx opens up or down on july 8 2026	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x474b0f…
07-08 12:58:02	Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	367	100¢	$367	0xbc94b4…
06-21 14:39:50	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?	No	BUY	355	100¢	$355	0x2756ea…
06-02 11:49:23	SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?	Yes	BUY	357	99¢	$355	0xf37778…
06-02 11:48:15	Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x9bde94…
05-24 10:44:55	Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x64b232…
05-14 15:57:41	Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by May 31?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0x984400…
05-14 15:56:45	Will XRP dip to $0.20 in May?	No	BUY	383	100¢	$383	0xef592a…
04-20 14:23:42	Will Solana reach $160 in April?	No	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xe3cade…
04-08 16:12:01	Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	No	BUY	382	100¢	$381	0x4bcacd…
03-19 09:39:39	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of march	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x441052…
03-04 08:25:55	will solana dip to 10 in march 2026	No	BUY	358	100¢	$357	0x2f9bec…
02-02 14:06:18	will khamenei leave iran by february 28 2026 713 559	No	BUY	3	97¢	$3	0xcd8fa0…
02-02 14:05:32	will gold gc hit high 10000 by end of february	No	BUY	406	99¢	$404	0x0cec33…
01-22 11:39:24	will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	No	BUY	104	100¢	$104	0xc70bdf…
01-22 11:38:52	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	SELL	104	100¢	$104	0xd0e237…
01-04 17:33:41	will xrp dip to 0pt2 in january 2026	No	BUY	417	100¢	$417	0x215cfa…