Careful-Sorrow — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$17

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

64.6%

Resolved

Trades

3,292

lifetime

Volume

$3.73K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-12

last 06-29 23:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

74% 22% +$9

Other

25% 73% +$8

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 262 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes		+100	$11	7¢	$7	$-4	06-09 09:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	13	$184	105	105	+0	open	—	06-27 22:29
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 19 2026 486	5	$159	105	105	+0	open	—	03-23 15:47
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	7	$115	480	480	+0	open	—	05-25 21:54
will hezbollah disarm by march 31	25	$111	5,000	4,347	+653	open	—	03-01 23:52
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	19	$105	308	308	+0	open	—	03-01 18:31
will israel or the us target an iranian oil or gas facility 716	7	$95	75	75	+0	open	—	03-07 19:04
will iran conduct a military action against israel on march 20 2026 353	2	$91	50	50	+0	open	—	03-21 22:58
will the us next strike iran on february 26 2026 et	51	$88	2,883	2,883	+0	open	—	02-18 19:37
will the us next strike iran on february 25 2026 et	67	$74	3,158	3,198	-40	open	—	02-16 16:39
us forcibly removes khamenei from power by march 31	6	$74	95	95	+0	open	—	02-28 21:37
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	7	$64	11,000	11,000	+0	open	—	03-29 10:51
fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	3	$63	2,249	0	+2,249	open	—	01-28 18:54
will the us next strike iran on march 29 2026 et	116	$61	3,036	3,134	-98	open	—	02-28 11:51
will the us next strike iran on march 31 2026 et	40	$60	2,900	2,400	+500	open	—	02-28 10:09
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	9	$59	100	35	+65	open	—	05-23 21:56
will iran strike cyprus in march	8	$58	180	180	+0	open	—	03-19 13:20
will the us next strike iran on february 22 2026 et	50	$56	1,513	1,553	-40	open	—	02-16 14:26
will the us next strike iran on february 24 2026 et	27	$55	1,387	1,387	+0	open	—	02-19 23:58
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	11	$48	800	800	+0	open	—	01-25 12:01
will the us next strike iran on january 28 2026 et 699	24	$46	1,000	1,400	-400	open	—	01-27 19:41
will israel or the us target fordow nuclear facility	3	$43	45	45	+0	open	—	03-02 20:11
will the us next strike iran on january 29 2026 et 159	30	$41	1,181	1,198	-17	open	—	01-28 13:48
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	7	$40	63	63	+0	open	—	04-07 23:14
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-20 18:18
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$39	35	35	+0	open	—	05-23 21:57
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	3	$36	30	30	+0	open	—	02-28 15:43
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	5	$35	145	145	+0	open	—	03-19 13:06
will the us next strike iran on march 4 2026 et	5	$35	1,000	1,112	-112	open	—	02-24 21:52
us x iran ceasefire by april 30	2	$35	35	35	+0	open	—	04-07 20:59
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	2	$33	100	100	+0	open	—	05-25 21:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-29 23:41:43	will ukraine sign an eu accession treaty by december 31 2027 20260611204943691	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x19cac2…
06-29 16:34:08	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	SELL	2	1¢	$0	0xa2335f…
06-29 15:55:26	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	SELL	516	2¢	$10	0xc0161b…
06-27 22:29:07	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	91¢	$8	0xf7c377…
06-27 22:20:55	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	93¢	$1	0xa5c669…
06-27 22:18:50	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	85¢	$8	0xc9d514…
06-27 22:18:43	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	47	89¢	$42	0x9ac270…
06-27 22:09:17	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0xde34ef…
06-27 22:04:01	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x2bae32…
06-27 21:43:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	88¢	$28	0xfa11e4…
06-27 21:41:02	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0x33adb1…
06-27 21:38:49	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	90¢	$36	0xe06888…
06-27 19:56:29	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	72¢	$4	0x3c279b…
06-27 19:55:40	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xa855ac…
06-27 19:52:22	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	84¢	$4	0x52d519…
06-27 19:48:53	Aleksandar Vučić out as Serbian President by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	94¢	$24	0x1d3032…
06-27 15:40:02	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xb8d498…
06-26 04:33:07	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0xe31c5e…
06-24 19:22:44	iaea visits isfahan fordow or natanz nuclear site by july 31 20260624040209014	Yes	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0xad386b…
06-23 10:58:05	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe44096…
06-23 10:08:22	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6f8646…
06-23 10:08:22	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x3997ee…
06-23 10:08:17	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xbb72cd…
06-23 10:08:17	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x8a4124…
06-23 10:08:17	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x76d22e…
06-23 06:42:08	will trump pardon sbf by july 31 20260608235339562	Yes	BUY	510	1¢	$5	0x418bc3…
06-23 03:27:22	will cristiano ronaldo score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406402	No	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0x184c4e…
06-22 19:36:38	will ukraine sign an eu accession treaty by december 31 2027 20260611204943691	Yes	SELL	6	24¢	$2	0x62040c…
06-21 17:47:56	will ukraine sign an eu accession treaty by december 31 2027 20260611204943691	Yes	SELL	15	11¢	$2	0x1d2944…
06-19 15:27:17	will cristiano ronaldo score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406402	No	SELL	12	25¢	$3	0x523751…
06-19 11:57:28	will ukraine sign an eu accession treaty by december 31 2027 20260611204943691	Yes	SELL	48	10¢	$5	0x70697c…
06-18 07:30:29	will ukraine sign an eu accession treaty by december 31 2027 20260611204943691	Yes	BUY	92	5¢	$5	0x16b853…
06-17 12:19:52	will cristiano ronaldo score 1 goals during the 2026 fifa world cup 20260611144406402	No	BUY	25	14¢	$4	0xf5e101…
06-09 09:31:42	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	0	8¢	$0	0xbf6e65…
06-09 01:11:46	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	90	0¢	$0	0xce6391…
06-09 00:32:40	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	14	0¢	$0	0x60fea4…
06-08 23:48:55	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,436	0¢	$1	0xe9a52c…
06-08 23:47:28	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0x311965…
06-08 23:25:19	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	0¢	$0	0xaa3680…
06-08 22:55:52	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x76bd32…
06-08 22:26:55	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	11¢	$7	0x56aa64…
06-08 22:15:18	Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	27	15¢	$4	0xd2872d…
06-06 10:32:52	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	275	6¢	$17	0xa1c26d…
06-05 05:51:15	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	1	8¢	$0	0x8e138b…
06-04 13:01:49	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	49	8¢	$4	0x9492e6…
06-03 08:23:01	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	SELL	230	1¢	$2	0xf56d25…
06-02 16:54:58	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	50	32¢	$16	0xab5926…
06-01 20:21:15	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xc78f8a…
05-29 12:38:54	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	44	15¢	$7	0x2abe3d…
05-29 09:54:09	Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	31¢	$16	0x082f94…
05-29 09:27:54	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x179a50…
05-29 09:27:52	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x91a493…
05-29 09:27:48	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xffa5cf…
05-29 09:27:47	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x2b5eba…
05-29 09:27:47	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x05ccdf…
05-29 09:27:45	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x6b48cd…
05-29 09:27:43	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0xc12101…
05-29 09:27:43	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x91ab03…
05-29 09:27:41	Will North Korea recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	0¢	$0	0x55f92a…
05-29 08:03:45	NATO article 5 before 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	15¢	$1	0x49ec29…
05-27 10:43:54	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	SELL	75	19¢	$14	0x285dde…
05-26 22:40:11	Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by May 31?	Yes	BUY	75	17¢	$13	0x5c7551…
05-26 00:35:27	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	SELL	300	2¢	$6	0x2e8cf2…
05-26 00:14:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	300	2¢	$4	0xff6680…
05-25 21:57:19	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	SELL	100	17¢	$17	0xf3fc08…
05-25 21:54:20	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	100	16¢	$16	0xf75218…
05-25 21:54:15	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	200	10¢	$19	0x86e60b…
05-25 21:49:02	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	200	8¢	$16	0x5973a7…
05-25 21:46:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0xd2b208…
05-25 21:46:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	100	16¢	$16	0x7e4ed6…
05-25 21:42:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	80	30¢	$24	0x5e624f…
05-25 21:41:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	SELL	100	12¢	$12	0xfb5bdd…
05-25 21:38:47	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	No	BUY	180	6¢	$11	0x095797…
05-23 21:57:20	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	68¢	$6	0x685371…
05-23 21:56:38	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	61¢	$21	0xb3adea…
05-23 21:50:17	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	30	38¢	$11	0xc79bdb…
05-23 21:05:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	63¢	$16	0xeb9250…
05-23 21:02:23	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 23?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xc3a560…
05-23 19:20:27	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	31¢	$5	0x50c2e9…
05-23 19:14:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xef829b…
05-23 18:35:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf387be…
05-23 18:35:02	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	47¢	$12	0xb512b1…
05-23 18:34:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	39¢	$1	0x3ce026…
05-23 18:34:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x34fead…
05-23 18:34:39	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0xcf9679…
05-23 18:34:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0x2f4fbe…
05-23 18:33:59	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x030bf6…
05-23 18:33:50	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x9f45ab…
05-20 18:18:22	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x6205a8…
05-20 15:45:58	US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro?	Yes	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xf8bfa7…
05-07 19:29:33	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	3	33¢	$1	0x11059e…
05-07 19:28:51	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	47	33¢	$16	0x2b04a3…
05-07 09:26:13	Epstein suicide note released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	50	14¢	$7	0x29a7c2…
05-01 19:11:44	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xa22311…
05-01 00:19:28	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0x795fbe…
05-01 00:16:50	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xf67b77…
04-29 16:23:18	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	Yes	BUY	20	17¢	$3	0xcf68c1…
04-28 23:08:36	us x iran ceasefire extended by april 22 2026	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$2	0xd7bf81…
04-28 10:58:40	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	0¢	$0	0x3140d9…
04-28 10:58:22	Will Donald Trump visit China on May 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	108	0¢	$0	0x874d7c…