Warmhearted-Chalice 0x449c74…20879e
whale hot
3Unusual bets: 1 position →
← all wallets
Realized P&L
+$29.9K
Unrealized P&L
-$8.79K
Hit rate
61.9%
Resolved
367
Trades
5,352
lifetime
Volume
$1.50M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$281
Open exposure
$26.5K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 11-02 09:17
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 140 days
Categories
Politics
77% 60% +$43,129
Other
22% 51% -$13,983
Crypto
1% 80% +$784
Sports
0% 50% -$9
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
71 active days in 12wk • peak 38 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes +40,803 $11,202 12¢ $4.7K -$6,510 11-01 19:04
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? Yes +30,275 $5,173 14¢ $4.1K -$1,086 10-31 02:38
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No -3,978 -$3,109 84¢ $-3321 -$213 11-02 08:27
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes +3,500 $3,275 94¢ $3.3K +$32 10-30 14:07
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House No +3,000 $2,820 94¢ $2.8K +$15 10-31 02:29
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,500 $1,102 74¢ $1.1K +$0 10-29 08:53
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Yes +1,500 $940 72¢ $1.1K +$132 10-31 10:22
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes +1,000 $624 76¢ $755 +$131 11-02 08:36
France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026? No +523 $449 92¢ $484 +$34 10-26 08:50
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes -500 -$339 84¢ $-421 -$82 05-25 07:21
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026? Yes +500 $260 78¢ $388 +$128 10-15 12:39
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? No +1,000 $480 38¢ $385 -$95 11-01 07:25
Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? Yes +500 $355 72¢ $358 +$2 10-21 14:22
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? Yes +1,000 $320 32¢ $315 -$5 11-02 08:24
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? Yes +300 $273 94¢ $284 +$10 10-17 09:19
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +4,058 $870 7¢ $278 -$592 11-02 09:17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026? Yes +9,570 $856 3¢ $273 -$583 11-01 17:33
Will the Democratic Party win the NC-13 House seat? No +500 $292 55¢ $272 -$20 11-01 02:34
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? Yes +500 $295 54¢ $268 -$28 10-27 15:41
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? Yes +269 $170 77¢ $207 +$38 10-21 14:26
Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026? Yes +300 $225 68¢ $206 -$19 10-22 06:05
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes +300 $240 66¢ $200 -$41 10-13 09:59
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No +500 $162 38¢ $188 +$26 11-01 17:32
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +500 $120 34¢ $168 +$48 10-17 09:38
US imports Russian diesel by December 31? Yes +270 $253 60¢ $164 -$89 10-31 12:34
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +2,816 $174 5¢ $141 -$33 11-02 09:17
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +200 $114 66¢ $133 +$19 10-20 10:05
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +210 $130 57¢ $120 -$10 10-21 09:53
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026? No +100 $33 38¢ $38 +$4 10-20 09:54
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes -300 -$35 12¢ $-37 -$1 07-28 06:15