Costly-Disconnection — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$12

Hit rate

16.2%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$2.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$24

Open exposure

$37

1 position

First seen

2026-04-06

last 06-01 12:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

59% — —

Other

31% 0% $-3

Crypto

8% 100% +$3

Tech

2% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

38 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		-44	$-25	84¢	$-37	$-12	05-28 15:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	7	$138	116	116	+0	open	—	05-19 18:48
us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	3	$132	90	90	+0	open	—	04-17 15:57
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	4	$132	87	87	+0	open	—	05-15 22:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$124	86	86	+0	open	—	05-27 20:31
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$117	73	73	+0	open	—	04-17 13:27
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	2	$116	68	68	+0	open	—	04-25 17:32
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	2	$112	69	69	+0	open	—	04-20 21:21
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	6	$108	69	69	+0	open	—	05-04 22:25
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$92	77	77	+0	open	—	05-21 00:32
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	4	$91	100	100	+0	open	—	04-24 15:55
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	4	$76	76	76	+0	open	—	04-17 14:37
will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	1	$70	97	0	+97	open	—	04-10 08:19
Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	2	$65	57	57	+0	open	—	05-23 10:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	2	$63	49	49	+0	open	—	05-23 21:13
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	2	$62	62	62	+0	open	—	05-27 09:07
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	2	$60	36	36	+0	open	—	05-20 18:53
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	2	$58	35	35	+0	open	—	04-22 14:53
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	2	$57	37	37	+0	open	—	05-23 21:14
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	2	$57	37	37	+0	open	—	04-22 15:03
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	2	$50	98	0	+98	open	—	04-26 16:56
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	1	$50	70	0	+70	open	—	04-30 21:09
megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	2	$40	58	0	+58	open	—	04-25 19:23
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	3	$40	50	0	+50	open	—	04-28 09:55
iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	1	$35	96	0	+96	open	—	04-10 07:30
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	1	$35	53	0	+53	open	—	04-09 11:47
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	2	$35	39	39	+0	open	—	04-15 13:45
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	3	$30	24	40	-16	open	—	05-14 23:13
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$29	62	62	+0	open	—	05-23 22:57
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	3	$27	32	32	+0	open	—	05-19 18:47
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	3	$26	25	44	-20	Yes	$-3	05-10 14:06

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-01 12:10:43	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	74¢	$17	0x938c94…
05-28 15:10:51	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	44	57¢	$25	0x41e8fa…
05-27 20:31:49	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	86	83¢	$71	0x6a79ef…
05-27 09:07:21	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	62	36¢	$22	0xdbeb54…
05-25 23:45:31	Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xd35f36…
05-24 19:57:30	Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by May 31?	Yes	BUY	85	5¢	$4	0x93798b…
05-24 08:09:06	T20 World Cup, Sub Regional Africa, Qualifier A: Rwanda vs Ivory Coast	Ivory Coast	BUY	250	1¢	$2	0xdf49d6…
05-23 22:57:36	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	SELL	62	38¢	$24	0xab0d90…
05-23 21:14:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	SELL	37	85¢	$32	0x4028cc…
05-23 21:13:30	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	SELL	49	78¢	$38	0xa7d316…
05-23 20:42:35	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0xc00e40…
05-23 16:15:32	US Kamikaze Dolphins confirmed by May 31?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0x974c85…
05-23 11:30:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xd6ac46…
05-23 10:49:51	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	SELL	57	71¢	$40	0x36ad2d…
05-21 00:32:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	77	68¢	$52	0x8c0875…
05-20 21:19:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x92d485…
05-20 21:10:13	Will Solana dip to $80 in May?	Yes	BUY	57	44¢	$25	0x7cb79e…
05-20 18:53:06	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	SELL	36	96¢	$35	0x237bb1…
05-19 18:48:13	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	65	51¢	$33	0xd65342…
05-19 18:47:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	SELL	16	57¢	$9	0xecc988…
05-19 18:47:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	SELL	32	37¢	$12	0xab32d5…
05-15 22:56:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	87	94¢	$82	0x485f44…
05-15 22:52:27	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $240 in May?	Yes	BUY	44	57¢	$25	0x709706…
05-14 23:13:06	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	SELL	40	37¢	$15	0x80bf91…
05-14 11:02:11	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xfcb659…
05-13 16:35:59	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x4b9382…
05-13 15:44:18	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in May?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x063240…
05-12 18:06:58	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x84e58b…
05-12 17:40:45	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	No	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0x822b30…
05-11 18:42:58	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x5dbd00…
05-10 14:06:10	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	SELL	44	26¢	$12	0x4cfb6b…
05-10 11:44:28	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	62	64¢	$40	0x70596e…
05-07 16:54:46	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	51	79¢	$40	0xebe571…
05-06 15:37:31	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	52¢	$40	0xf99d03…
05-06 08:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xeecda0…
05-04 22:28:48	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0xa3d384…
05-04 22:27:34	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0xf166ef…
05-04 22:27:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x9b649e…
05-04 22:27:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	26	49¢	$13	0xcaee90…
05-04 22:25:32	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	SELL	69	87¢	$60	0xc281ed…
04-30 21:09:52	U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by June 30?	No	BUY	70	71¢	$50	0xd6751b…
04-30 19:56:32	Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	No	BUY	36	69¢	$25	0x287a2e…
04-28 09:55:32	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x01d0d2…
04-28 09:28:58	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xc3778f…
04-28 08:37:42	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	13	75¢	$10	0xefc193…
04-28 07:14:18	Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$25	0x2335d1…
04-26 16:56:00	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0x0bdc22…
04-26 16:55:04	Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the 2026 West Bengal Legislative Assembly election?	Yes	BUY	49	51¢	$25	0xf0948b…
04-26 03:17:30	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xba2d46…
04-25 19:23:56	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x892eb3…
04-25 17:41:22	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0xa9ee0f…
04-25 17:38:00	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x06fcbd…
04-25 17:32:28	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	SELL	68	97¢	$66	0xbce116…
04-25 06:25:10	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x3a3d0b…
04-24 15:55:12	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	42	34¢	$14	0x69f654…
04-24 15:45:14	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	42	60¢	$25	0xd12a24…
04-24 12:02:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	58	46¢	$27	0x7d8265…
04-23 21:55:58	deepseek v4 released by april 24	No	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x7a4bf1…
04-23 21:40:40	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	1	58¢	$1	0x65c4f2…
04-23 19:35:40	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	No	BUY	24	58¢	$14	0xcfb340…
04-22 21:22:44	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	43¢	$25	0xabde16…
04-22 15:03:50	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	37	86¢	$32	0x0c57d1…
04-22 14:53:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0xbe5469…
04-22 10:42:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	12	45¢	$5	0xaae30e…
04-22 10:41:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	10	45¢	$4	0xe38f20…
04-21 15:24:40	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	No	BUY	35	72¢	$25	0xa9ba37…
04-20 21:28:56	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x45e179…
04-20 21:21:12	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	SELL	69	90¢	$62	0xcebf0a…
04-18 13:18:54	megaeth market cap fdv 1b one day after launch gj9e 189 291 824 352	Yes	BUY	40	62¢	$25	0xa49bd6…
04-17 15:57:06	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	SELL	90	80¢	$72	0x5583d1…
04-17 15:22:42	israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 18 2026	No	BUY	1,500	0¢	$3	0x35ead6…
04-17 14:37:22	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	SELL	76	34¢	$26	0x7a43d4…
04-17 13:27:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	73	91¢	$66	0xc18b62…
04-17 09:57:54	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x6975d9…
04-17 08:47:54	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	23	65¢	$15	0xf6a544…
04-17 02:23:16	Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	BUY	37	68¢	$25	0x485328…
04-15 13:45:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	39	25¢	$10	0x8305b0…
04-15 10:35:00	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?	No	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x0708c7…
04-13 21:55:11	Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	48	52¢	$25	0x8df612…
04-13 14:16:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	39	64¢	$25	0x7fc128…
04-12 19:18:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x960f48…
04-12 07:44:29	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	No	BUY	47	32¢	$15	0xed53da…
04-12 01:08:17	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xd1baab…
04-11 22:28:13	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0xb64af1…
04-11 22:20:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x8888df…
04-11 22:03:21	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	55¢	$8	0x9e1da8…
04-11 14:55:29	us escorts commercial ship through hormuz by april 30 894	No	BUY	59	68¢	$40	0xd95f31…
04-10 12:32:19	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52	67¢	$35	0x135889…
04-10 08:19:07	will tisza win 130 seats in the hungarian national assembly in this election	No	BUY	97	72¢	$70	0x3a9b57…
04-10 07:30:13	iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982	No	BUY	96	37¢	$35	0x555b0d…
04-09 11:47:47	Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	66¢	$35	0x172c69…
04-08 21:38:05	Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	69	73¢	$50	0xab3e2a…
04-07 16:16:17	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	8	69¢	$6	0x79d38a…
04-07 15:49:45	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	BUY	65	69¢	$45	0x078135…
04-06 14:45:51	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	No	BUY	2,000	0¢	$10	0x7e3906…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	40	$61.4K	491	06-08 20:16
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	38	$17.1M	27,991	06-10 02:52
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	37	$607.5K	11,060	06-09 13:39
Firsthand-Eaglet 0x1cdd…e595	36	$319.4K	25,890	06-10 03:03
Charming-Grape 0xac4a…bf1e	34	$524.9K	7,869	06-08 02:46
Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935	33	$328.0K	1,121	06-07 05:28
Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24	33	$46.4K	4,616	06-01 14:56
Shimmering-Corruption 0x5968…3fc4	32	$9.20K	1,039	06-02 07:15