Superior-Half — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

41.5%

Resolved

Trades

193

lifetime

Volume

$7.95K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$234

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-15

last 06-12 15:27

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

55% — —

Other

28% 50% $-0

Sports

17% 50% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 15 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (4) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No		+122	$118	98¢	$120	+$2	06-07 21:38
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No		+122	$114	94¢	$114	$-0	06-13 01:03

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	15	$839	647	647	+0	open	—	06-07 11:43
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	19	$688	649	649	+0	open	—	05-29 17:44
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	15	$470	754	754	+0	open	—	05-27 01:31
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	6	$446	289	167	+122	open	—	06-07 21:38
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	5	$438	222	222	+0	No	$-0	04-18 20:10
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	7	$427	221	221	+0	open	—	04-25 15:38
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?	8	$358	184	184	+0	open	—	04-26 01:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	12	$339	581	580	+1	open	—	05-28 15:48
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	14	$331	544	544	+0	open	—	04-25 22:26
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	8	$318	249	249	+0	Yes	$-0	04-20 18:31
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?	10	$317	627	627	+0	No	+$1	04-19 21:56
Iran leadership change by June 30?	8	$286	682	682	+0	open	—	06-08 02:58
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$242	124	124	+0	open	—	04-21 12:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	7	$226	301	301	+0	open	—	05-19 22:40
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	2	$222	222	222	+0	open	—	06-06 10:58
Will Alberta join the US?	2	$221	116	116	+0	open	—	06-06 09:23
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	3	$221	116	116	+0	open	—	04-23 16:42
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	2	$219	111	111	+0	No	+$0	04-19 04:02
israel closes its airspace by june 9	2	$215	110	110	+0	open	—	06-09 05:31
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	4	$195	168	168	+0	open	—	05-29 14:36
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	9	$181	198	198	+0	open	—	06-10 05:44
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	4	$179	91	91	+0	open	—	06-01 01:29
will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	5	$153	319	319	+0	open	—	06-09 15:24
Iran Nuke before 2027?	2	$122	67	67	+0	open	—	06-08 21:32
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	1	$114	122	0	+122	open	—	06-13 01:03
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	2	$102	175	175	+0	open	—	05-29 10:22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$74	160	160	+0	open	—	05-21 17:09
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	2	$41	167	167	+0	open	—	05-25 04:18
Iran leadership change by May 31?	3	$39	324	323	+1	open	—	05-27 15:26
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open?	4	$13	388	388	+0	open	—	04-26 10:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-13 01:03:52	US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	122	94¢	$114	0xbf618e…
06-12 15:27:06	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	6¢	$6	0xbe334f…
06-12 15:18:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	87	6¢	$5	0x838852…
06-12 15:18:34	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	6¢	$0	0x56dc90…
06-10 05:44:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	53	77¢	$41	0xb242f8…
06-10 03:31:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x559c3d…
06-10 03:30:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	46	76¢	$35	0x325f3e…
06-09 22:18:33	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	SELL	27	76¢	$21	0xcf23cc…
06-09 20:43:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Yes	BUY	27	76¢	$21	0x6db67c…
06-09 15:24:12	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0xf035c9…
06-09 15:24:12	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	83	25¢	$21	0xc591d3…
06-09 15:24:12	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	105	25¢	$26	0x17f324…
06-09 15:24:12	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	SELL	123	25¢	$31	0x0b00d8…
06-09 14:08:40	will trump agree to unfreeze iranian assets by june 30	Yes	BUY	319	23¢	$73	0x23cea4…
06-09 08:14:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	8	25¢	$2	0x783975…
06-09 08:14:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	SELL	110	25¢	$28	0x206b27…
06-09 06:50:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	90	25¢	$22	0x7d24d7…
06-09 06:50:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	No	BUY	28	25¢	$7	0x432bcd…
06-09 05:31:54	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	SELL	110	98¢	$108	0x1eb8c3…
06-09 03:23:01	israel closes its airspace by june 9	No	BUY	110	97¢	$107	0x35f7e3…
06-08 21:32:43	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	SELL	67	91¢	$61	0x78264e…
06-08 19:03:51	Iran Nuke before 2027?	No	BUY	67	91¢	$61	0x5f8460…
06-08 02:58:04	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	383	6¢	$23	0x492c7b…
06-08 01:42:37	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	383	7¢	$28	0x92f857…
06-07 21:38:49	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	57	99¢	$56	0x33c0c9…
06-07 19:23:18	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	57	99¢	$56	0xa362a9…
06-07 11:43:07	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	136	82¢	$111	0x8ed3fb…
06-07 11:42:22	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	136	82¢	$111	0x1822fe…
06-06 10:58:04	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	222	50¢	$111	0xb21197…
06-06 10:56:40	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	222	50¢	$111	0x27ee19…
06-06 09:23:01	Will Alberta join the US?	No	SELL	116	95¢	$111	0x8a52bf…
06-06 06:54:12	Will Alberta join the US?	No	BUY	116	95¢	$111	0xb06bc6…
06-05 22:43:48	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	43	4¢	$2	0x73b94b…
06-05 22:43:46	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	SELL	141	4¢	$5	0x981a36…
06-05 20:56:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	80	4¢	$3	0xf63157…
06-05 20:56:54	Iran leadership change by June 30?	Yes	BUY	104	4¢	$4	0x83e06d…
06-04 16:37:01	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	SELL	115	96¢	$111	0xaf79cb…
06-04 15:34:15	Iran leadership change by June 30?	No	BUY	115	97¢	$111	0x00c998…
06-02 09:59:50	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	104	81¢	$85	0x17a0ee…
06-02 07:29:48	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	104	81¢	$84	0xc4313a…
06-02 06:11:26	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0xe0b08a…
06-02 04:24:36	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	95	80¢	$76	0xc42274…
06-02 04:24:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	1	80¢	$1	0x9ce999…
06-02 04:24:34	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	3	80¢	$2	0x00aaaf…
06-02 01:32:59	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	119	82¢	$97	0xfa2bb0…
06-01 16:28:39	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	7	72¢	$5	0xb96c1b…
06-01 16:28:26	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	SELL	119	72¢	$85	0xc0a031…
06-01 12:50:51	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	42	77¢	$32	0xeeee8f…
06-01 12:50:51	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	84	77¢	$64	0x4bcc58…
06-01 01:29:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0xfb4284…
06-01 01:29:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0x9a68c1…
06-01 01:29:51	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x885e64…
05-31 21:54:32	Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	No	BUY	91	99¢	$90	0xddacdc…
05-31 18:45:48	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	108	98¢	$106	0xe57faa…
05-31 18:45:48	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xa9aefa…
05-31 15:26:14	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	110	98¢	$108	0x077ca7…
05-30 21:53:32	Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	122	97¢	$118	0xd95190…
05-30 07:45:18	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	SELL	162	22¢	$35	0xc92a4b…
05-30 04:57:51	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	BUY	162	21¢	$34	0x8a9baa…
05-29 17:44:31	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	SELL	47	2¢	$1	0xe7fdca…
05-29 17:35:23	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	Yes	BUY	47	2¢	$1	0xd0a6f7…
05-29 14:36:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	104	57¢	$59	0x1c2416…
05-29 14:36:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	64	57¢	$36	0xb9d718…
05-29 11:33:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	131	59¢	$78	0x6528dc…
05-29 11:33:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	37	59¢	$22	0x146f6d…
05-29 10:22:23	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	SELL	175	29¢	$51	0x19dcc4…
05-29 07:04:55	Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Yes	BUY	175	29¢	$51	0x2242d7…
05-28 15:48:28	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0xe56a81…
05-28 13:45:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	47	8¢	$4	0xb31fed…
05-28 13:45:53	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	110	8¢	$8	0x375ec6…
05-28 11:28:22	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	182	13¢	$24	0x850d34…
05-28 04:06:12	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	127	2¢	$2	0xbb9525…
05-28 04:06:12	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	117	2¢	$2	0x75dd39…
05-28 04:06:12	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	83	2¢	$1	0x2e0e14…
05-28 00:48:43	Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	327	2¢	$5	0x272345…
05-27 20:30:07	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0x8af276…
05-27 20:29:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	49	99¢	$48	0xb72c7a…
05-27 20:29:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	23	99¢	$23	0x6f83f6…
05-27 20:29:44	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	42	99¢	$41	0xe91af2…
05-27 16:56:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	15	96¢	$14	0xc3143b…
05-27 16:56:37	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	105	97¢	$101	0x923797…
05-27 15:26:03	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xc6e13d…
05-27 01:31:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xe65e93…
05-27 01:31:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	59	98¢	$58	0xb074e5…
05-27 01:31:43	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	50	98¢	$49	0x2f0a57…
05-27 01:14:06	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	58	98¢	$57	0xeb065c…
05-27 01:14:01	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	56	98¢	$55	0x06ad8d…
05-25 11:13:03	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	SELL	210	21¢	$45	0x6aca2d…
05-25 09:59:36	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	BUY	210	20¢	$43	0x18066c…
05-25 04:18:27	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	167	12¢	$21	0x7b3ee4…
05-25 01:00:56	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	167	12¢	$20	0xfe2864…
05-24 15:05:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	17	94¢	$16	0x30a1be…
05-24 15:05:50	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	SELL	102	94¢	$95	0x1db597…
05-24 10:54:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xad8af1…
05-24 10:54:13	Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x881e0c…
05-23 08:15:55	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	SELL	321	6¢	$19	0xe76409…
05-23 08:14:31	Iran leadership change by May 31?	Yes	BUY	324	6¢	$19	0xbfdc66…
05-21 17:09:29	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	24¢	$38	0x5ad0dc…
05-21 13:53:59	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	22¢	$35	0x1c79a6…
05-21 08:58:59	Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0xe582c2…