Definite-Drain — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

211

lifetime

Volume

$8.17K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-23

last 06-06 11:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Crypto

51% 100% +$0

Other

33% 100% +$0

Sports

9% — —

Politics

7% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spx up or down on february 13 2026	3	$920	500	500	+0	open	—	02-13 17:36
bitcoin up or down february 14 12pm et	26	$706	703	703	+0	open	—	02-14 17:51
will msft dip to 390 in february	4	$566	480	480	+0	open	—	02-20 19:23
btc updown 5m 1771092900	1	$500	505	0	+505	open	—	02-14 18:19
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$372	310	310	+0	open	—	01-24 17:17
bitcoin up or down february 14 2pm et	5	$369	408	408	+0	open	—	02-14 19:21
will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	3	$303	257	56	+200	open	—	02-20 17:36
sup bowl national anthem ou 119pt5 seconds	5	$291	438	438	+0	open	—	02-08 20:33
btc updown 5m 1771092300	2	$235	243	240	+4	open	—	02-14 18:08
will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	3	$228	121	121	+0	open	—	03-08 23:41
bitcoin up or down february 16 11am et	9	$226	200	200	+0	open	—	02-16 16:02
will microstrategy announce a bitcoin purchase february 10 16	4	$210	397	397	+0	open	—	02-11 15:54
btc updown 5m 1771092600	6	$210	189	164	+25	open	—	02-14 18:14
btc updown 5m 1771090200	2	$203	191	191	+0	open	—	02-14 17:33
2026 winter olympics winter olympics 2026 xc womens cross country interval start free frida karlsson swe	2	$201	101	101	+0	open	—	02-12 20:57
bitcoin up or down february 16 2pm et	3	$196	200	200	+0	open	—	02-16 18:49
bitcoin up or down february 17 2pm et	7	$190	200	200	+0	open	—	02-17 19:10
bitcoin up or down february 15 1pm et	6	$101	80	80	+0	open	—	02-15 18:19
btc updown 5m 1771089900	1	$100	202	0	+202	open	—	02-14 17:27
btc updown 5m 1771090800	1	$100	177	0	+177	open	—	02-14 17:41
tur ant sam 2026 02 13 ant	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-13 18:47
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?	1	$100	100	0	+100	No	+$0	02-13 20:35
Superform FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-11 18:42
will the national citizen party finish with the second most seats in the bangladesh parliamentary election	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-12 20:17
bitcoin up or down february 16 3pm et	2	$100	100	100	+0	open	—	02-16 20:00
Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	1	$100	100	0	+100	open	—	02-22 04:11
will the price of bitcoin be between 68000 70000 on february 13	1	$70	70	0	+70	open	—	02-13 16:57
epl bre ars 2026 02 12 total 1pt5	3	$66	50	50	+0	open	—	02-12 21:20
will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	5	$58	58	58	+0	open	—	02-19 15:50
Aztec FDV above $150M one day after launch?	1	$52	52	0	+52	open	—	02-13 20:21

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-06 11:51:21	will wti dip to 30 in june 2026 427 735 583	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0x839b6e…
06-04 16:45:45	will anthropics valuation hit high 5pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xea961d…
06-01 16:09:03	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in June?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x5813b5…
05-26 15:53:20	Will Hyperliquid dip to $32 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x96d0d3…
05-25 22:05:09	Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x63d4c8…
05-19 21:45:15	Will Hyperliquid dip to $24 in May?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf364e4…
05-07 16:52:45	Will Jerome Powell depart as Fed Chair by June 30 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x864e4e…
05-03 21:45:32	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in May?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x05da94…
05-02 21:25:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xca283a…
05-01 22:01:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x177026…
04-27 16:31:32	Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	Yes	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xb6fdf0…
04-26 16:32:04	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x44798d…
04-25 21:27:30	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf4af61…
04-24 17:58:00	Will there be 8 or more major space weather events this week?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x6b0afa…
04-23 17:18:10	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27?	Yes	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xe25af1…
04-22 22:52:28	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27?	Yes	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x6450e6…
04-22 17:47:38	OpenGradient FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe347f9…
04-21 17:32:36	Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x34e98e…
04-20 17:38:50	Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase April 21-27?	Yes	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x0251a9…
04-19 14:34:34	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x79024e…
04-18 11:10:08	Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x80dd73…
04-17 17:46:30	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xa21eea…
04-16 17:18:06	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	4	100¢	$4	0xe6e583…
04-14 20:38:30	Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0xd6ab55…
04-13 16:47:43	Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x2cc266…
04-12 21:48:03	Will Manchester City qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x01f94a…
04-11 17:09:25	will collin morikawa win the 2026 masters tournament	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x8bed2f…
04-10 20:14:17	Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x04659a…
04-10 20:13:51	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdf1b94…
04-09 17:40:55	Will Chelsea be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xcd2a8b…
04-08 16:46:47	Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x826ffb…
04-06 17:00:59	Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xdbe84a…
04-05 20:15:13	Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x43a9db…
04-04 17:24:17	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc7c809…
04-03 17:13:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x421033…
04-02 21:22:19	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in April?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xf89578…
04-01 16:12:17	Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xe7cee5…
03-31 22:15:53	Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1b244e…
03-30 15:31:25	Based FDV above $800M one day after launch?	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xdb5d22…
03-29 20:27:06	Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x18f661…
03-28 21:56:40	will crude oil cl hit low 60 by end of march 293 652 791 525 614 229 628 379 727 681 774	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3bb590…
03-27 21:34:33	Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb13f77…
03-26 21:52:27	will moonshot have the best ai model for math on march 31	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x86b735…
03-25 19:23:15	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 113	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa3df5a…
03-23 18:47:47	will grgory doucet win the 2026 lyon mayoral election	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xaa53c6…
03-23 18:47:31	Will Eric Ciotti win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x999589…
03-22 19:35:29	Will EdgeX launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x33cb30…
03-21 19:39:17	Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x106f1d…
03-20 21:13:51	will pierre yves bournazel win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x85bc02…
03-19 16:13:59	Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x096d4a…
03-19 15:59:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xfec01c…
03-18 22:48:23	will sarah knafo win the paris mayor election	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7875c7…
03-17 18:04:57	Will Mireille Damiano win the 2026 Nice mayoral election?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xf46176…
03-16 00:00:19	will avatar fire and ash win best visual effects at the 98th academy awards	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0xc1d3bb…
03-15 19:59:23	Will Leverkusen win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x157186…
03-14 22:22:43	Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xa34c3c…
03-13 18:30:03	Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2d2dc3…
03-11 05:32:33	will clavicular be irans next supreme leader by march 31st	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x4cdf8e…
03-10 21:41:57	will atalanta reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x8ab18b…
03-10 21:41:45	will bayern mnchen reach the uefa champions league quarter finals	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdfa187…
03-09 19:01:35	Will Sunderland be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x62824d…
03-08 23:52:39	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	7	95¢	$7	0x6f9be6…
03-08 23:51:07	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	SELL	3	95¢	$3	0x6ba41a…
03-08 23:41:39	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	SELL	121	97¢	$118	0xef5dd6…
03-08 23:34:47	will crude oil cl hit high 105 by end of march 881	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xb4d5c1…
03-08 20:04:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	110	91¢	$100	0xfb2500…
03-08 20:02:59	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	11	90¢	$10	0x6b04a5…
03-07 23:11:55	Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x357355…
03-06 19:19:59	Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0x49b3f9…
03-05 18:46:07	Opinion FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xf0d492…
03-05 18:45:53	Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x043acf…
03-04 19:13:31	will there be between 10 and 13 us strikes on somalia in february 2026	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xae207f…
03-02 17:39:25	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	10	68¢	$7	0x4fd26f…
03-02 17:31:49	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	SELL	5	68¢	$3	0xf6194c…
03-02 17:29:05	will opinion launch a token on march 5	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x296b30…
03-01 20:18:31	will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	Yes	BUY	16	65¢	$10	0x164400…
03-01 20:16:23	bitcoin up or down on march 2	Up	SELL	26	40¢	$11	0x1e1b71…
03-01 20:12:07	bitcoin up or down on march 2	Up	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x545d9a…
02-28 20:23:53	Fabric FDV above $500M one day after launch?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xe06209…
02-28 19:41:15	khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbb8396…
02-27 23:34:23	US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0xe0a9d5…
02-27 23:33:47	US strikes Iran by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x643a85…
02-26 16:41:52	Hyperlend FDV above $300M one day after launch?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xb8e684…
02-25 22:11:16	will zachxbt release his investigation on february 26	Yes	BUY	10	96¢	$10	0x6ebc33…
02-23 17:46:14	will nvda reach 200 in february	No	SELL	10	58¢	$6	0x9d680c…
02-23 16:36:38	will nvda reach 200 in february	No	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0xaaa8e7…
02-22 18:00:52	will deepseek have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x41b925…
02-22 04:11:44	Will there be at least 1000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xaad5e4…
02-20 19:23:54	will msft dip to 390 in february	Yes	SELL	380	56¢	$213	0x3afc29…
02-20 18:48:02	will msft dip to 390 in february	Yes	BUY	380	55¢	$209	0x35a6a8…
02-20 17:36:20	will norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x5443d7…
02-19 15:59:26	will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	61	44¢	$27	0x602e00…
02-19 15:50:28	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	21	48¢	$10	0x98ec23…
02-19 15:46:46	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	19	48¢	$9	0x9f1596…
02-19 15:44:16	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	6	48¢	$3	0xe4497b…
02-19 15:42:20	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	SELL	12	48¢	$6	0x927ceb…
02-18 15:36:34	will united states win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x450405…
02-18 15:36:16	will canada win the mens ice hockey gold medal at the 2026 winter olympics	Yes	BUY	58	52¢	$30	0xb597ed…
02-17 19:10:25	bitcoin up or down february 17 2pm et	Up	SELL	3	48¢	$1	0xaa2218…
02-17 19:10:25	bitcoin up or down february 17 2pm et	Up	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0x4a36f7…