Responsible-Likelihood — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

20.8%

Resolved

Trades

134

lifetime

Volume

$1.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-23

last 07-12 08:24

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

100% 20% $-34

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 17 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	6	$119	1,850	1,350	+500	open	—	05-15 15:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	3	$101	154	154	+0	open	—	04-29 17:48
bitcoin above 62k on july 2 2026	2	$81	271	271	+0	open	—	07-02 12:30
bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	2	$63	75	75	+0	open	—	07-06 14:30
bitcoin above 62k on july 3 2026	2	$63	116	116	+0	open	—	07-02 13:55
btc updown 5m 1782485400	3	$55	716	77	+638	open	—	06-26 14:54
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	1	$50	875	0	+875	open	—	05-18 20:39
bitcoin above 62k on june 28 2026	1	$50	455	0	+455	open	—	06-26 13:45
bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	5	$46	837	837	+0	open	—	07-07 14:50
btc updown 5m 1783518600	1	$44	90	0	+90	open	—	07-08 13:50
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?	1	$40	130	0	+130	open	—	05-18 20:40
ethereum above 1700 on july 8 2026	2	$34	312	312	+0	open	—	07-08 08:47
bitcoin above 62k on july 8 2026	2	$30	144	144	+0	open	—	07-08 07:50
bitcoin above 56k on june 30 2026	2	$28	280	280	+0	open	—	06-28 16:35
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	2	$27	143	143	+0	open	—	05-18 05:01
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April?	2	$26	1,187	0	+1,187	open	—	04-28 19:23
btc updown 5m 1783518300	2	$20	537	0	+537	open	—	07-08 13:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	4	$20	132	0	+132	open	—	04-27 09:39
btc updown 5m 1783458000	3	$19	118	118	+0	open	—	07-07 21:02
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	2	$19	77	77	+0	open	—	05-11 08:02
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	3	$19	970	0	+970	open	—	05-18 20:40
Will Solana reach $100 in April?	2	$16	340	0	+340	open	—	04-28 20:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	2	$16	102	0	+102	Down	$-16	05-11 07:44
btc updown 5m 1782996300	2	$16	139	0	+139	open	—	07-02 12:49
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	3	$16	381	381	+0	open	—	05-15 20:38
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	3	$15	207	207	+0	open	—	05-16 19:46
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?	2	$15	2,505	0	+2,505	open	—	05-18 11:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	1	$15	65	0	+65	open	—	04-28 14:32
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	2	$15	40	0	+40	open	—	04-29 19:41
bitcoin above 62k on june 29 2026	2	$15	59	59	+0	open	—	06-28 16:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-12 08:24:37	ethereum above 2000 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	99	3¢	$3	0xc4205c…
07-12 08:24:13	ethereum above 1900 on july 14 2026	Yes	BUY	54	9¢	$5	0x8c3da1…
07-11 22:08:23	btc updown 5m 1783807500	Down	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x8a81ab…
07-11 22:07:52	btc updown 5m 1783807500	Down	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0xc7e952…
07-08 13:50:32	btc updown 5m 1783518600	Up	BUY	90	49¢	$44	0xf5fb39…
07-08 13:47:56	btc updown 5m 1783518300	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0xb5f23a…
07-08 13:45:19	btc updown 5m 1783518300	Up	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x2a660d…
07-08 13:44:32	btc updown 5m 1783518000	Up	BUY	66	4¢	$3	0x2c05dd…
07-08 13:42:50	btc updown 5m 1783518000	Up	BUY	40	25¢	$10	0xb6be7d…
07-08 10:14:22	btc updown 5m 1783505400	Down	BUY	250	2¢	$5	0xda77e2…
07-08 08:47:26	ethereum above 1700 on july 8 2026	No	SELL	312	8¢	$24	0x314954…
07-08 07:50:31	bitcoin above 62k on july 8 2026	No	SELL	144	14¢	$20	0x9e505c…
07-08 07:21:25	ethereum above 1800 on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0xb09273…
07-08 07:20:13	bitcoin above 64k on july 8 2026	Yes	BUY	125	8¢	$10	0xb04821…
07-07 21:07:25	ethereum above 1700 on july 8 2026	No	BUY	312	3¢	$10	0x29353d…
07-07 21:03:14	bitcoin above 62k on july 8 2026	No	BUY	144	7¢	$10	0x437307…
07-07 21:02:26	btc updown 5m 1783458000	Down	SELL	118	8¢	$9	0x76b004…
07-07 21:01:26	btc updown 5m 1783458000	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x7d330d…
07-07 21:01:26	btc updown 5m 1783458000	Down	BUY	56	9¢	$5	0x69891d…
07-07 14:50:44	bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	No	SELL	402	1¢	$5	0x6212e9…
07-07 14:11:05	bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	No	BUY	116	4¢	$5	0xbfa970…
07-07 14:09:08	bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	No	BUY	286	3¢	$10	0xbdaaa6…
07-07 14:04:22	btc updown 5m 1783432800	Up	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0xbfb8d4…
07-07 13:59:41	bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	No	SELL	435	4¢	$16	0x6542a2…
07-07 12:24:10	bitcoin above 62k on july 7 2026	No	BUY	435	2¢	$10	0x22160b…
07-07 12:23:11	btc updown 5m 1783426800	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x70a56a…
07-06 14:30:35	bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	Yes	SELL	75	58¢	$43	0xa8eb28…
07-06 13:33:34	bitcoin above 62k on july 6 2026	Yes	BUY	75	27¢	$20	0x2845cc…
07-02 13:55:14	bitcoin above 62k on july 3 2026	Yes	SELL	116	46¢	$53	0x8da2e0…
07-02 12:49:47	btc updown 5m 1782996300	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x53ca49…
07-02 12:45:38	btc updown 5m 1782996300	Down	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0x5845f7…
07-02 12:41:58	btc updown 5m 1782996000	Up	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x10a488…
07-02 12:30:32	bitcoin above 62k on july 2 2026	Yes	SELL	271	26¢	$71	0xe16aad…
06-30 20:57:44	bitcoin above 56k on july 1 2026	No	BUY	254	3¢	$9	0xf5fbde…
06-30 20:56:56	bitcoin above 62k on july 2 2026	Yes	BUY	271	4¢	$10	0x6f4528…
06-30 20:56:16	bitcoin above 62k on july 3 2026	Yes	BUY	116	9¢	$10	0x139e59…
06-28 16:35:02	bitcoin above 56k on june 30 2026	No	SELL	280	6¢	$18	0xdb1fb9…
06-28 16:34:10	bitcoin above 62k on june 29 2026	Yes	SELL	59	8¢	$5	0xa1eeae…
06-27 21:52:43	bitcoin above 64k on june 28 2026	Yes	SELL	414	0¢	$1	0x7d9fea…
06-27 06:44:13	bitcoin above 56k on june 30 2026	No	BUY	280	4¢	$10	0x2738bd…
06-26 14:54:43	btc updown 5m 1782485400	Up	BUY	638	1¢	$5	0x49070e…
06-26 14:51:49	btc updown 5m 1782485400	Up	SELL	77	33¢	$26	0x7f1276…
06-26 14:50:50	btc updown 5m 1782485400	Up	BUY	77	31¢	$24	0x039d9e…
06-26 13:46:24	bitcoin above 62k on june 29 2026	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x64b577…
06-26 13:45:25	bitcoin above 64k on june 28 2026	Yes	BUY	414	2¢	$10	0xa2fae6…
06-26 13:45:09	bitcoin above 62k on june 28 2026	Yes	BUY	455	11¢	$50	0x3aabe8…
05-18 20:40:31	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	130	31¢	$40	0xf47e1b…
05-18 20:40:08	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	714	1¢	$10	0xc38c5a…
05-18 20:39:52	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	875	6¢	$50	0xb295f5…
05-18 11:20:36	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x262fd2…
05-18 11:20:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	1,596	0¢	$5	0x520096…
05-18 07:19:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	909	1¢	$10	0xc05fcd…
05-18 05:01:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	206	2¢	$5	0x16399b…
05-18 05:01:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 18?	Yes	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x24ef53…
05-18 05:01:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	No	SELL	143	16¢	$22	0x96c439…
05-17 06:02:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x0f479b…
05-16 19:46:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	No	SELL	207	2¢	$4	0xab0c04…
05-16 12:26:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xb1449a…
05-16 05:08:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	40	2¢	$1	0xb993d9…
05-15 20:38:20	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	Yes	SELL	381	1¢	$4	0xed08e4…
05-15 18:18:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xc7c180…
05-15 15:34:02	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xc0a214…
05-15 15:33:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x3551be…
05-15 14:43:24	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	602	2¢	$11	0x712113…
05-15 14:30:27	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16?	No	BUY	240	2¢	$5	0x6ed862…
05-15 14:30:06	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	98	3¢	$3	0x7fafb4…
05-15 14:22:51	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	Yes	SELL	121	0¢	$0	0xb9bbbe…
05-15 14:19:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x4f1fff…
05-15 14:14:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x3473ec…
05-15 13:52:03	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	SELL	650	14¢	$91	0xe396f0…
05-15 13:35:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0xfc497b…
05-15 13:33:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x315fa1…
05-15 12:03:40	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 18?	No	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0x323542…
05-15 11:56:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	1,250	1¢	$10	0x39a0e8…
05-15 11:55:47	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	1,381	0¢	$5	0x995fe7…
05-15 11:55:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	121	4¢	$5	0x03f460…
05-13 10:01:04	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x291a1e…
05-13 09:45:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Up	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xfcfa3d…
05-13 09:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0xba66af…
05-11 08:03:30	Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	294	3¢	$10	0x1504d5…
05-11 08:02:30	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	Yes	SELL	77	12¢	$9	0x0d7f30…
05-11 08:01:38	Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May?	Yes	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0xad951d…
05-11 07:58:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	29	21¢	$6	0xa79fce…
05-11 07:56:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0xfabf95…
05-11 07:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xcf3e61…
05-11 07:44:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	86	7¢	$6	0xbbdd0b…
05-11 07:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Up	BUY	16	62¢	$10	0x3af7e0…
04-30 14:55:24	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	SELL	38	1¢	$0	0x659a14…
04-30 09:41:54	Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3?	Yes	BUY	87	2¢	$2	0x38451d…
04-30 09:40:26	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 30?	Yes	BUY	167	3¢	$5	0x04dd46…
04-30 09:36:54	Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?	Yes	BUY	38	3¢	$1	0xcb79f6…
04-29 19:48:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0xd6119f…
04-29 19:47:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	SELL	1	26¢	$0	0x50c184…
04-29 19:45:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Down	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0x48aea8…
04-29 19:41:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x1a81b9…
04-29 19:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0xfae585…
04-29 18:56:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xff7074…
04-29 17:48:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	SELL	154	46¢	$71	0xc2f20d…
04-29 17:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	77	13¢	$10	0x824506…
04-29 17:46:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET	Up	BUY	77	26¢	$20	0x3abe26…