Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$372

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

57.7%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

30,304 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$147.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$473

30 positions

First seen

2026-08-16

last 10-05 00:43

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 72 days

Categories

Other

97% 66% +$2,851

Politics

2% 64% +$185

Tech

1% 53% +$25

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$1

Sports

0% 67% -$4

Crypto

0% 0% -$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

48 active days in 12wk • peak 2033 trades/day

Open positions (30) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	+36	$30	100¢	$36	+$6	09-13 05:46
Anthropic IPO closing market cap above $1.75T?	No	+39	$4	70¢	$27	+$23	09-02 11:57
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+57	$20	45¢	$26	+$6	09-12 22:05
Will Ebba Busch be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	No	+21	$21	99¢	$21	$0	08-30 16:02
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Yes	+180	$107	11¢	$20	-$87	09-08 17:02
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	No	+23	$10	89¢	$20	+$11	09-12 07:41
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+23	$20	89¢	$20	+$0	09-13 02:57
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	+24	$20	83¢	$20	+$0	09-12 23:25
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	+24	$20	81¢	$19	$0	09-12 14:18
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	No	+19	$19	100¢	$19	+$0	09-05 06:22
Trump meets with Putin by December 31?	Yes	+19	$13	86¢	$17	+$4	09-15 10:20
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+130	$18	11¢	$14	-$3	09-13 07:08
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Yes	+39	$20	37¢	$14	-$6	09-12 06:27
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31, 2027?	Yes	+21	$10	68¢	$14	+$4	09-11 15:15
Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	+14	$14	99¢	$14	$0	09-02 17:02
Will Russia enter Kramatorsk by December 31, 2026?	No	+14	$10	96¢	$13	+$3	09-12 00:05
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in December 2026 (ET)?	No	+15	$15	88¢	$13	-$2	09-05 08:22
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	No	+16	$10	83¢	$13	+$3	09-12 22:08
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+14	$10	90¢	$12	+$2	09-11 15:51
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+12	$12	100¢	$12	+$0	09-06 18:25
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	+12	$12	100¢	$12	+$0	09-06 18:25
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?	No	+12	$10	96¢	$11	+$1	09-13 02:57
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	No	+15	$6	71¢	$11	+$5	09-16 00:53
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?	No	+11	$10	98¢	$11	+$1	09-07 15:56
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?	Anthropic	+11	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-11 17:46
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	No	+10	$10	98¢	$10	+$0	09-12 16:39
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	No	+10	$10	99¢	$10	+$0	09-11 23:43
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?	No	+11	$10	94¢	$10	+$0	09-12 14:06
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 40 and 60 years in prison?	No	+11	$10	95¢	$10	+$0	09-07 15:56
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+16	$8	63¢	$10	+$2	09-12 19:06

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on September 12?	54	$842	546	412	+135	No	+$48	09-12 09:14
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on September 12?	37	$632	353	353	+0	No	+$73	09-12 06:53
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 12?	35	$615	341	341	+0	No	+$66	09-12 05:37
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 12?	29	$503	265	265	+0	No	+$26	09-12 14:23
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	35	$453	595	524	+71	Yes	-$16	09-12 16:18
Will OpenAI's Astra model be released on September 4, 2026?	45	$382	720	311	+409	Yes	+$75	09-04 19:04
will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	25	$375	273	273	+0	No	+$162	09-28 20:48
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on September 13?	24	$358	257	207	+50	No	+$69	09-13 08:58
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 12?	26	$351	206	176	+30	No	+$16	09-12 08:20
Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $390 Week of August 31 2026?	34	$346	208	208	+0	No	+$64	09-04 19:27
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the September 2026 meeting?	20	$345	232	232	+0	Yes	+$47	09-12 17:57
will openais astra model be released by september 3 2026	47	$311	674	226	+448	No	-$39	09-04 01:38
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of August 31 2026?	32	$266	200	200	+0	Yes	+$34	09-04 05:18
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 28?	43	$237	200	145	+55	Yes	-$12	08-28 07:38
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $172 in September?	32	$236	267	267	+0	No	+$8	09-13 22:31
msft up or down on august 31 2026	48	$235	303	0	+303	Down	+$68	08-31 19:23
will wti dip to 95 by september 7 2026	28	$232	199	162	+37	No	+$52	09-11 14:30
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on September 13?	22	$226	235	151	+84	No	+$31	09-13 09:12
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on September 2?	15	$222	120	120	+0	Yes	+$19	09-02 11:41
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	14	$213	172	172	+0	No	+$103	09-28 03:13
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	20	$208	123	123	+0	No	+$37	09-28 14:07
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $69 Week of August 31 2026?	39	$207	251	235	+16	No	-$14	09-03 15:19
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $68 Week of August 31 2026?	31	$205	198	198	+0	No	-$22	09-04 11:56
open up or down on september 2 2026	31	$203	510	200	+310	Up	+$227	09-02 13:03
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $184 Week of September 7 2026?	52	$197	184	146	+38	Yes	-$10	09-10 09:42
will openais astra model be released by september 4 2026	29	$196	579	97	+482	Yes	-$8	09-04 18:59
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	11	$196	101	101	+0	open	—	09-17 06:16
will openais astra model be released by september 9 2026	23	$193	323	313	+10	Yes	+$3	09-04 19:30
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $168 in September?	27	$193	235	235	+0	No	+$2	09-16 07:36
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of September 7 2026?	18	$192	154	154	+0	No	+$82	09-11 13:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-05 00:43:43	Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	81	21¢	$17	0xb02ffd…
10-04 09:00:55	Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xad5f44…
10-02 07:07:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?	No	SELL	12	42¢	$5	0x3e84b7…
10-02 04:11:59	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Nebraska gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	20	27¢	$5	0x151841…
10-01 20:13:41	Will Elmano de Freitas win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	No	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x3a659f…
10-01 17:42:27	Will Filipe Barros win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	No	SELL	13	72¢	$10	0x94dbb6…
09-30 23:38:09	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	22	10¢	$2	0xd231b7…
09-30 23:37:56	Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x7cf0ed…
09-30 20:09:18	Will Elon Musk post 1000+ tweets in October 2026?	No	SELL	7	68¢	$5	0xbb4931…
09-30 19:50:41	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (LOW) $48 in September?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0xba027d…
09-30 19:47:42	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 in September?	No	SELL	17	99¢	$17	0x4adecf…
09-30 18:23:39	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $54 in September?	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x95e2ff…
09-30 17:50:06	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $224 in September?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0x0482e8…
09-30 17:04:08	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $304 in September?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x2196e3…
09-30 16:55:20	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in September?	No	SELL	34	94¢	$32	0xb10c9e…
09-30 16:55:20	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in September?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x602358…
09-30 16:55:20	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in September?	No	SELL	1	94¢	$1	0x2a13c3…
09-30 16:55:20	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $600 in September?	No	SELL	9	94¢	$8	0x02b4f1…
09-30 15:04:54	Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $5.50 and $6.00 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	0¢	$0	0x295e58…
09-30 05:13:36	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 96.00 in September?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x8ed0db…
09-30 05:00:03	Will US Dollar Index (DXY) hit (LOW) 97.00 in September?	No	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0xc1c905…
09-30 00:33:56	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $150 in September?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0xf3be25…
09-29 23:49:41	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $150 in September?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x193483…
09-29 23:11:45	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $150 in September?	No	SELL	16	99¢	$16	0x39f670…
09-29 23:11:09	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	SELL	37	94¢	$35	0xdead6c…
09-29 23:10:45	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x2d8bb0…
09-29 23:10:44	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0xedf5ba…
09-29 22:35:02	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in September?	No	SELL	32	94¢	$30	0x4a3c54…
09-29 22:34:56	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $320 in September?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0x25775e…
09-29 22:22:48	Will Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (HIGH) $216 in September?	No	SELL	6	94¢	$6	0x129441…
09-29 17:18:45	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	34	74¢	$25	0xf24384…
09-29 14:53:06	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $380 in September?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x91c3c8…
09-29 13:57:03	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $288 in September?	No	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0x9281b7…
09-29 13:56:39	Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $280 in September?	No	SELL	34	97¢	$33	0x621f3e…
09-28 20:48:33	will wti dip to 80 in september 2026	No	SELL	273	98¢	$268	0x093f9e…
09-28 14:08:41	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $196 in September?	No	SELL	54	86¢	$46	0xdeb885…
09-28 14:07:53	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $740 in September?	No	SELL	123	99¢	$123	0xed43d9…
09-28 13:52:54	Will USD be between 2.2M and 2.5M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	SELL	121	71¢	$85	0xd9e094…
09-28 13:40:36	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $352 in September?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x0b597a…
09-28 09:00:47	Will there be 4 or more North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$0	0x5b1669…
09-28 05:58:21	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	25¢	$3	0xd2902e…
09-28 05:48:59	US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	52¢	$8	0xcbfa61…
09-28 03:13:12	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	SELL	172	92¢	$158	0x7e29cc…
09-28 00:51:56	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $720 in September?	No	SELL	56	95¢	$53	0x57b393…
09-27 22:31:21	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Montana Senate election by 15%-18%?	Yes	SELL	16	18¢	$3	0xc46b45…
09-27 15:07:05	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x716279…
09-27 15:06:54	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $80 in September?	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xbf6916…
09-27 13:03:12	Will the median home value in NYC be between $663,000 and $689,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	37	79¢	$29	0x521adc…
09-27 10:24:23	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $296 in September?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xd07352…
09-27 08:10:44	Will the median home value in NYC be at least $689,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	33	8¢	$3	0xad87e7…
09-27 05:18:18	Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	22¢	$5	0x41772b…
09-27 00:58:32	Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in September?	Yes	SELL	15	30¢	$4	0x3ad1c2…
09-26 13:30:14	Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Yes	SELL	71	11¢	$8	0x067339…
09-26 12:31:26	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $450 in September?	No	SELL	16	94¢	$15	0x8e7975…
09-26 08:52:51	Will USD be less than 2.2M Iranian rials on September 30?	Yes	SELL	57	1¢	$0	0x6a9ecc…
09-26 03:31:26	Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $435 in September?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x9610da…
09-26 02:05:44	Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $450 in September?	No	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0x96a233…
09-26 00:48:36	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?	No	SELL	0	94¢	$0	0x731cd8…
09-26 00:28:30	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	53¢	$7	0x62f254…
09-26 00:08:42	Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?	No	SELL	10	94¢	$9	0x792848…
09-25 22:18:47	Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $390 in September?	No	SELL	11	94¢	$10	0x37179f…
09-25 19:40:20	Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	No	SELL	12	79¢	$9	0x4c7ecd…
09-25 17:48:23	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be at least $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	17	76¢	$13	0x492b95…
09-25 16:00:59	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	22	37¢	$8	0xf1df7c…
09-25 15:42:20	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in September?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x8b6c42…
09-25 14:48:32	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.40 and $0.45 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x8b46c9…
09-25 14:47:38	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.40 and $0.45 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	1¢	$0	0xde2bfb…
09-25 14:47:38	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be between $0.55 and $0.60 on September 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	87	11¢	$9	0x56bb87…
09-25 14:02:23	Will Claude go down 14+ times in September?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xdbce4a…
09-25 14:02:06	Will Claude go down 14+ times in September?	Yes	SELL	18	0¢	$0	0x3d0ef8…
09-25 07:57:02	Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in October 2026?	No	SELL	6	89¢	$5	0x6252a9…
09-25 00:36:21	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,900 in September?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$5	0xe5d185…
09-24 14:30:54	Will Anthropic's IPO valuation be between $1.75T and $2.00T?	No	SELL	9	56¢	$5	0x03819e…
09-24 13:08:35	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	3	36¢	$1	0x0d57bd…
09-24 13:06:38	Will the median home value in the US be less than $419,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	83	70¢	$58	0xfbc576…
09-24 08:15:47	Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $248 in September?	Yes	SELL	50	2¢	$1	0x1dda01…
09-24 03:30:02	Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in September?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0xc5103d…
09-24 03:17:40	Will Claude go down 8-10 times in September?	Yes	SELL	39	20¢	$8	0x9da25c…
09-24 03:11:28	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	SELL	16	0¢	$0	0xa01d8f…
09-24 03:10:01	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	Yes	SELL	10	0¢	$0	0xcdbf6c…
09-24 01:45:58	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	0	18¢	$0	0x1ba852…
09-23 21:57:46	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	9	18¢	$2	0x2741cb…
09-23 20:32:47	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be between $530,000 and $536,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xc0ddba…
09-23 18:52:19	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $810 in September?	No	SELL	5	96¢	$5	0x3f41d6…
09-23 18:02:22	Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	39¢	$5	0x17ab5f…
09-23 16:11:37	Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena \| WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x102772…
09-23 14:15:01	Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?	No	SELL	47	21¢	$10	0xef3892…
09-23 14:08:13	Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $580 in September?	No	SELL	0	97¢	$0	0xd4c83d…
09-23 13:03:11	Will the median home value in NYC be between $636,000 and $663,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	2	13¢	$0	0x63fd79…
09-23 12:10:16	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $78 in September?	No	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0x7f62df…
09-23 11:58:31	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in September?	No	SELL	16	98¢	$16	0xa3c371…
09-23 07:54:07	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0xe3c630…
09-23 05:40:05	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	No	SELL	9	32¢	$3	0xc10950…
09-23 02:30:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in September?	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0x315418…
09-23 02:05:43	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	12	73¢	$9	0xefe6bb…
09-22 22:46:26	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	14	6¢	$1	0x815c3f…
09-22 18:26:57	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Yes	SELL	27	27¢	$7	0x320bb5…
09-22 17:46:25	Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,125,000 and $1,161,000 on September 30?	Yes	SELL	5	36¢	$2	0x10f516…
09-22 14:02:45	Situational Awareness raises new capital by October 31?	No	SELL	11	53¢	$6	0xb7d929…
09-22 10:37:18	Will Claude go down 11-13 times in September?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0xd74e6a…