Skeletal-Pardon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$122

Unrealized P&L

-$96

Hit rate

75.4%

Resolved

144

Trades

672

lifetime

Volume

$39.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$59

Open exposure

$108

8 positions

First seen

2026-03-29

last 11-04 20:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 71 days

Categories

Tech

52% 70% +$163

Other

38% 67% -$709

Sports

8% 73% +$498

Politics

3% 60% -$73

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

39 active days in 12wk • peak 32 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	+202	$119	39¢	$79	-$41	11-02 22:31
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	+368	$33	3¢	$11	-$22	09-30 21:18
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	+40	$10	20¢	$8	-$3	11-03 06:34
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?	Yes	+114	$7	4¢	$4	-$3	10-01 22:13
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	+10	$4	26¢	$3	-$1	10-23 07:31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	+110	$10	2¢	$2	-$8	05-08 21:50
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?	Yes	+10	$5	13¢	$1	-$4	10-01 10:52
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANTH?	Yes	+21	$16	2¢	$0	-$16	08-31 21:14

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	14	$4.2K	2,790	2,790	+0	Yes	-$204	07-30 21:38
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	18	$2.8K	1,574	1,574	+0	Yes	+$253	05-27 20:34
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	12	$2.1K	1,133	1,133	+0	Yes	+$120	07-21 12:15
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?	13	$1.4K	1,715	0	+1,715	Yes	+$265	05-27 20:35
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	6	$1.1K	591	591	+0	Yes	+$27	09-01 16:32
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	13	$1.0K	1,084	0	+1,084	Yes	+$77	04-01 22:05
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	11	$1.0K	643	643	+0	Yes	+$250	08-29 15:16
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	7	$986	598	598	+0	No	+$189	08-28 06:30
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	5	$986	1,305	0	+1,305	No	+$319	07-11 19:13
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	10	$957	550	550	+0	Yes	+$58	10-22 21:10
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	7	$836	654	273	+381	Yes	+$78	08-31 21:22
Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	12	$788	1,065	0	+1,065	Yes	-$788	09-01 16:33
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	11	$670	502	314	+187	Yes	+$135	09-30 07:24
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	15	$648	570	184	+386	No	-$298	10-27 14:12
next mythos class model released by september 1 2026	25	$631	915	10	+905	Yes	-$621	09-01 16:33
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	2	$607	748	0	+748	Yes	+$140	06-01 11:45
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 4, 2026?	7	$600	537	100	+437	Yes	+$37	07-04 18:02
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?	8	$588	621	0	+621	Yes	+$33	07-11 08:14
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	4	$576	300	300	+0	Yes	+$14	07-01 07:25
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	15	$560	741	0	+741	No	-$560	10-28 15:19
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	7	$556	305	305	+0	Yes	+$50	09-28 20:46
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	13	$549	564	145	+419	No	+$160	05-15 10:36
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31	6	$487	324	324	+0	open	—	08-05 19:53
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	3	$425	525	0	+525	Yes	+$100	08-30 12:13
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	11	$413	473	23	+450	Yes	+$81	04-28 19:19
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	7	$406	256	256	+0	No	-$46	07-30 21:38
Will any other model be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	6	$403	250	250	+0	Yes	+$52	10-06 06:56
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on July 18, 2026?	3	$390	201	201	+0	Yes	+$12	07-18 15:52
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?	3	$388	462	0	+462	Yes	+$74	09-01 02:04
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	4	$368	243	243	+0	Yes	+$80	06-30 13:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 20:47:16	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x9378e2…
11-04 17:14:01	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	SELL	0	95¢	$0	0xaa6cec…
11-03 19:16:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	94	67¢	$63	0xb5070b…
11-03 06:34:22	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	26¢	$10	0xf27850…
11-03 06:31:48	Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x14aab9…
11-02 22:31:52	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	54	60¢	$33	0x0c796d…
11-02 14:35:39	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	48	58¢	$28	0xd28fe1…
11-02 14:33:10	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xb2f808…
11-02 14:32:31	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	99¢	$18	0x3b644a…
11-02 14:21:57	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 2, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	98¢	$98	0x656949…
11-02 06:26:58	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	12¢	$6	0xa847a5…
11-01 21:05:30	Will any other model be the best AI model on November 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8d05fb…
10-28 18:53:23	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	BUY	7	38¢	$3	0x939e2c…
10-28 18:05:26	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	247	2¢	$4	0x65fbf0…
10-28 15:19:41	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	30	70¢	$21	0x1e6ff4…
10-28 15:19:23	Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	22	95¢	$21	0xfe4605…
10-27 14:12:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	94¢	$37	0x1c5d9d…
10-27 14:11:59	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	38	98¢	$37	0xac62a9…
10-27 13:57:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	94¢	$32	0x2870d1…
10-27 13:56:50	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	32	98¢	$32	0x0035c9…
10-27 13:55:33	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	53	43¢	$23	0xa12842…
10-27 13:55:20	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	23	98¢	$23	0x0a377d…
10-24 06:35:18	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	49	56¢	$28	0xfda924…
10-23 07:31:47	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	36¢	$4	0x60a98c…
10-23 07:29:56	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	70	82¢	$57	0xb6b8a1…
10-23 06:50:54	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	0	50¢	$0	0x44b5c1…
10-23 05:45:42	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	36	50¢	$18	0x4c28d6…
10-23 04:20:14	Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT?	Yes	SELL	2	50¢	$1	0x205f17…
10-22 21:52:32	Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	77	94¢	$72	0x53c979…
10-22 21:51:27	Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	91¢	$37	0x7f3036…
10-22 21:49:33	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0xf4140c…
10-22 21:47:48	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xda3a20…
10-22 21:45:20	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	71¢	$6	0xeb99a6…
10-22 21:32:24	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0x193efe…
10-22 21:31:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	48	75¢	$36	0xe901f5…
10-22 21:31:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	75¢	$58	0x7a7446…
10-22 21:31:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	75¢	$18	0x48dec8…
10-22 21:29:53	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	59¢	$59	0x9694f8…
10-22 21:28:18	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x30963f…
10-22 21:24:05	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	50	78¢	$39	0x090d72…
10-22 21:17:29	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	92¢	$31	0x50c3ab…
10-22 21:12:29	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	58	69¢	$40	0xa7b7f0…
10-22 21:10:33	Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	550	92¢	$508	0xe2fad7…
10-22 21:03:06	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0xbef894…
10-22 21:02:27	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	30¢	$2	0x35c27e…
10-22 21:02:03	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	25	59¢	$15	0xf19039…
10-22 20:59:15	Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	No	BUY	45	33¢	$15	0xef1f09…
10-22 20:58:47	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	SELL	43	98¢	$43	0xb458fb…
10-22 08:35:50	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	41	72¢	$29	0xfdf02b…
10-21 16:20:45	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 21, 2026?	No	BUY	29	99¢	$29	0x4cdb4b…
10-20 21:37:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1510 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	50	79¢	$40	0x12e616…
10-20 21:36:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	25	64¢	$16	0x7aac47…
10-20 21:33:23	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	57	81¢	$46	0x55f881…
10-20 07:35:02	Will OpenAI be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	5¢	$3	0x49e9a3…
10-20 07:30:07	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x7b7f33…
10-20 07:29:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x30d1e2…
10-18 07:11:09	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	62	80¢	$49	0x71b1d7…
10-17 06:15:52	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xefcef3…
10-17 06:15:29	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	94¢	$26	0xa39d07…
10-17 06:15:28	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xa78bda…
10-17 06:15:01	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc26c6e…
10-17 06:14:25	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	SELL	6	99¢	$6	0xe39ad2…
10-16 14:38:49	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0x2c2970…
10-16 14:37:04	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	25	93¢	$23	0xc46bee…
10-16 06:14:19	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	77¢	$12	0x32a54f…
10-16 06:13:04	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 17, 2026?	No	BUY	60	96¢	$57	0x4d4ebc…
10-16 06:10:09	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	80¢	$16	0xc9055b…
10-16 06:09:22	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	71¢	$7	0x244a00…
10-16 06:08:51	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	80¢	$24	0x03aa9b…
10-16 02:58:51	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	93¢	$23	0x388b10…
10-15 21:56:14	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	94¢	$8	0x7c07f7…
10-15 21:56:06	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0x3063cd…
10-15 21:55:50	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	51	99¢	$50	0x7c3c50…
10-15 21:44:03	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	59	80¢	$47	0x0b0b51…
10-15 21:43:41	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x5de0f6…
10-15 08:26:05	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 31 2026	No	BUY	40	74¢	$30	0x16d787…
10-15 00:36:35	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x3f9266…
10-15 00:11:08	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x412c07…
10-15 00:01:48	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc050ff…
10-14 23:49:09	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xf264d4…
10-14 23:35:04	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xc923a6…
10-14 23:20:37	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x9e4bc5…
10-14 22:58:28	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xf7b2ac…
10-14 22:48:12	will russia and ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by october 15 2026	No	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xe96042…
10-13 20:33:46	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	59	69¢	$41	0x680c14…
10-13 20:33:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	44	94¢	$41	0xb10b55…
10-12 13:59:14	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	17	78¢	$13	0x675b43…
10-12 13:32:38	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	94¢	$14	0x08b867…
10-12 13:09:32	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	24	77¢	$18	0x9f78bd…
10-12 13:09:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	96¢	$19	0xe7700e…
10-12 13:05:38	Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0x556fc6…
10-11 20:49:04	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	23	18¢	$4	0x598926…
10-11 20:48:08	Will Anthropic be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	18¢	$6	0xe2320e…
10-11 20:47:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x43bdde…
10-11 07:59:15	Will Sweden win 2026-27 Nations League Group B4?	Yes	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0xa7841d…
10-11 07:58:55	Will Spain win 2026-27 Nations League Group A3?	Yes	BUY	12	84¢	$10	0x0001af…
10-11 07:56:40	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	72	94¢	$68	0x23b1fa…
10-11 07:56:27	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	92	96¢	$88	0xfc147a…
10-06 21:39:42	Will Iceland win 2026-27 Nations League Group C4?	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x4b2764…
10-06 21:38:50	Will Azerbaijan win 2026-27 Nations League Group D2?	Yes	BUY	11	84¢	$9	0xcbe451…