Skeletal-Pardon — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

3.2%

Resolved

Trades

131

lifetime

Volume

$5.14K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$12

1 position

First seen

2026-03-29

last 07-11 08:08

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Tech

44% — —

Other

38% — —

Sports

17% 33% $-44

Politics

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 9 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes		+122	$12	10¢	$12	$-0	07-11 08:08

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will artemis ii launch by april 30 584 422 878 853 499	13	$1.0K	1,084	0	+1,084	open	—	04-01 22:05
will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	4	$576	300	300	+0	open	—	07-01 07:25
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	11	$493	476	145	+331	open	—	05-15 10:36
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	10	$401	473	11	+462	open	—	04-22 12:06
will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	3	$361	377	0	+377	open	—	07-01 14:48
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	4	$302	332	0	+332	open	—	04-22 12:09
will tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in q1 2026	3	$299	163	163	+0	open	—	04-02 12:59
Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	5	$207	120	120	+0	open	—	04-13 08:04
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$172	130	130	+0	open	—	06-26 08:41
Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	5	$164	193	0	+193	open	—	04-23 18:27
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	5	$133	157	0	+157	open	—	06-26 08:43
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	2	$126	134	0	+134	open	—	05-23 21:43
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	4	$116	69	69	+0	open	—	06-26 20:03
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	2	$91	107	0	+107	open	—	04-02 08:11
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	9	$79	185	109	+76	open	—	04-24 09:20
gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	1	$79	101	0	+101	open	—	06-10 07:22
Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	3	$77	120	0	+120	open	—	04-10 12:09
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	6	$76	610	0	+610	open	—	04-10 12:10
Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	5	$73	49	48	+2	open	—	04-14 13:35
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$65	75	75	+0	open	—	06-26 08:41
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	4	$54	60	0	+60	open	—	05-21 21:26
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$31	46	0	+46	open	—	06-15 19:17
will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	4	$25	73	0	+73	open	—	06-09 08:29
Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	3	$23	35	0	+35	No	$-23	04-28 19:19
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	3	$22	26	0	+26	open	—	05-09 13:51
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$22	61	0	+61	No	$-22	04-24 09:20
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$18	50	50	+0	open	—	04-08 07:25
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	3	$17	43	43	+0	open	—	05-14 14:21
Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	2	$12	122	0	+122	open	—	07-11 08:08
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	1	$11	0	1,056	-1,056	open	—	06-04 07:32

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-11 08:08:41	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x68f123…
07-03 15:54:08	Will Russia invade another country in 2026?	Yes	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0x208aa4…
07-01 14:48:55	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	220	96¢	$211	0xa1c9bb…
07-01 14:48:05	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	100	96¢	$96	0xc89265…
07-01 14:47:56	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by july 1 20260613193829179 129 881 748 432 345 931 774	Yes	BUY	57	96¢	$54	0x95ad34…
07-01 07:25:43	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	300	98¢	$295	0x4866b7…
06-27 10:48:22	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	100	94¢	$94	0xe5f415…
06-27 10:48:05	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	93	94¢	$87	0x3b5b56…
06-27 10:47:55	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	108	93¢	$100	0x3b2763…
06-26 20:03:29	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	69	99¢	$68	0x6f8908…
06-26 08:43:32	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	70	95¢	$67	0x0a0b27…
06-26 08:41:44	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	130	65¢	$84	0xbea71b…
06-26 08:41:41	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	75	32¢	$24	0xbd9222…
06-26 06:57:28	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	101	67¢	$68	0x26fb82…
06-24 20:05:32	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	22	95¢	$21	0xae56bb…
06-24 20:04:55	Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xcef63c…
06-24 20:02:40	Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	29	70¢	$20	0x7638e3…
06-16 14:14:49	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x500704…
06-16 14:13:44	Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	55	55¢	$30	0x933cac…
06-16 14:11:46	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xc6e293…
06-16 14:11:25	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	40	70¢	$28	0xf4ad71…
06-15 19:17:22	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	16	66¢	$11	0x7162fb…
06-11 08:41:24	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	70¢	$10	0xddad49…
06-11 08:41:16	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0x38a10e…
06-11 08:41:09	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0xabd9fc…
06-11 08:40:25	Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	15	66¢	$10	0x30fbeb…
06-11 08:40:01	Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xe95a0c…
06-11 08:39:42	Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x319ad1…
06-10 07:22:51	gpt 5pt6 released by june 15 2026 343	No	BUY	101	78¢	$79	0x5eca18…
06-09 08:29:24	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	10	34¢	$3	0xdee084…
06-09 08:29:15	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	5	34¢	$2	0x17019c…
06-09 08:28:57	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x811565…
06-09 08:28:27	will a claude mythos model be released by june 9 2026	No	BUY	44	34¢	$15	0xf24a6a…
06-09 08:27:36	will claude 5 be released by june 12 2026	No	BUY	37	16¢	$6	0x392750…
06-04 07:32:58	Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,056	1¢	$11	0xda4208…
05-23 21:43:17	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	103	94¢	$97	0x324148…
05-23 21:41:49	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Usyk	BUY	31	94¢	$29	0x164a7a…
05-21 21:26:35	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	9	89¢	$8	0xcb073a…
05-21 21:25:36	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	45	89¢	$40	0xe326bf…
05-21 21:24:07	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	4	88¢	$4	0x573f50…
05-21 21:22:46	Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by May 22?	Yes	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x8c242d…
05-15 10:36:31	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	145	100¢	$145	0xb7ed27…
05-14 14:21:43	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	SELL	43	6¢	$3	0x941bd4…
05-09 13:51:46	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0x9e5b80…
05-09 11:38:09	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	BUY	30	34¢	$10	0x7cf5b4…
05-09 09:04:32	Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15?	Yes	BUY	13	33¢	$4	0x4ed681…
05-08 21:58:36	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	85¢	$9	0x862b9b…
05-08 21:58:26	Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 22, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x770dce…
05-08 07:23:18	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	160	91¢	$146	0x4466f6…
05-07 14:19:57	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xfc1e68…
05-07 14:12:52	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	55	63¢	$35	0xa50c11…
05-07 13:34:03	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x8f99b7…
05-07 13:32:58	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	100	64¢	$64	0x89a09c…
05-07 13:30:52	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10	64¢	$6	0x9fb955…
05-07 13:30:17	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0xe1ac89…
05-07 13:29:51	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x21a69e…
05-07 13:29:33	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	40	64¢	$26	0x47a9f5…
05-07 13:29:30	Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	5	64¢	$3	0x34de9e…
04-28 19:19:56	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	14	79¢	$11	0x624ee0…
04-27 15:22:12	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	19	58¢	$11	0x992753…
04-27 09:43:00	Will Bayern München reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	3	58¢	$1	0x5b60c7…
04-27 09:42:52	Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final?	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$2	0xbe7914…
04-24 09:20:08	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x75ebaf…
04-24 09:20:04	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x134393…
04-24 09:19:10	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	33	36¢	$12	0x2a2263…
04-24 09:19:00	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0xd62d29…
04-23 18:27:40	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	82¢	$35	0xa015cd…
04-23 18:27:02	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	81¢	$6	0x40033f…
04-23 17:30:00	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	81¢	$37	0x993e66…
04-23 17:13:44	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0x01b300…
04-22 12:09:20	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	24	70¢	$17	0xf12c0a…
04-22 12:09:04	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	50	27¢	$14	0x617d28…
04-22 12:08:54	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xc260e0…
04-22 12:08:10	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	70¢	$3	0x8828ac…
04-22 12:07:58	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xd7100b…
04-22 12:07:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x73ee60…
04-22 12:06:54	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	10	67¢	$7	0xc147bd…
04-22 12:05:56	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	12	27¢	$3	0xbf730e…
04-22 12:05:50	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	23	27¢	$6	0xee68ff…
04-22 12:04:24	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	122	63¢	$77	0x62542b…
04-16 18:19:04	Will Anthropic have the best Coding AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	80	90¢	$72	0x4580d9…
04-16 01:24:44	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	3	91¢	$2	0x38b93a…
04-16 00:44:54	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	5	91¢	$4	0x6b8d49…
04-15 19:53:04	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x8261e2…
04-15 19:14:02	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	SELL	1	91¢	$1	0x014e35…
04-14 13:35:41	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	40	95¢	$38	0x507258…
04-14 11:30:31	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	1	95¢	$1	0x68fecc…
04-13 08:04:59	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	128	89¢	$114	0xf86d60…
04-13 08:04:45	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	120	96¢	$115	0xffc59d…
04-13 08:03:47	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0xb60cf8…
04-11 09:22:59	Claude 4.7 released by May 31?	Yes	SELL	7	80¢	$5	0x91509d…
04-10 13:22:09	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0xfc8495…
04-10 12:10:35	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0xad442e…
04-10 12:10:25	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	100	7¢	$7	0x6b34da…
04-10 12:09:27	Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0xfe3e73…
04-10 12:08:29	Will Barcelona reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal?	Yes	BUY	10	28¢	$3	0x9f041c…
04-09 13:22:03	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	69	6¢	$4	0x2010b4…
04-08 16:48:43	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50	68¢	$34	0x9affe6…
04-08 16:44:15	Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xcef51d…
04-08 16:18:17	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	82	17¢	$14	0xd48153…