Grim-Bowtie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$212

Unrealized P&L

-$78

Hit rate

65.8%

Resolved

Trades

5,136

lifetime

Volume

$32.4K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$39

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 06-25 10:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

54% 49% +$206

Politics

46% 75% +$6

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

12 active days in 12wk • peak 98 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	+60	$30	45¢	$27	$-3	06-05 15:22
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	-36	$-29	30¢	$-11	+$18	06-25 10:35
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	-176	$91	1¢	$-1	$-92	06-25 10:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	323	$1.5K	4,817	4,615	+203	open	—	01-31 01:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	115	$938	598	584	+14	open	—	02-10 11:13
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	142	$863	630	487	+143	open	—	01-27 11:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	92	$858	828	704	+124	open	—	02-24 21:22
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	141	$844	538	529	+9	open	—	01-26 19:30
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	93	$792	501	566	-65	open	—	02-06 14:17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	148	$731	608	453	+155	open	—	02-08 13:43
another us strike on venezuela on january 3	22	$661	257	455	-198	open	—	01-05 00:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	74	$586	295	345	-50	open	—	01-27 01:12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	112	$518	461	476	-15	open	—	02-08 16:14
another us strike on venezuela on january 12	27	$500	302	269	+33	open	—	01-07 17:35
another us strike on venezuela on january 4	18	$481	238	298	-60	open	—	01-05 16:19
another us strike on venezuela on january 5	17	$468	194	285	-91	open	—	01-05 11:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	110	$466	448	452	-3	open	—	02-02 15:31
will russia join the board of peace	94	$464	521	475	+46	open	—	01-31 00:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	77	$458	337	196	+141	open	—	02-01 13:33
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	55	$454	182	288	-106	open	—	01-21 21:59
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	93	$441	474	317	+157	open	—	02-02 19:48
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	129	$405	1,117	1,184	-68	open	—	02-01 00:33
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	95	$400	446	455	-9	open	—	02-02 21:55
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?	24	$386	240	205	+35	open	—	01-09 20:02
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	78	$347	384	328	+56	open	—	02-13 17:26
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	99	$324	736	57	+679	open	—	01-21 23:41
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minutes and 2 hours 578 355	50	$309	367	227	+140	open	—	01-25 02:31
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	47	$275	1,648	132	+1,516	open	—	02-16 23:51
will hungary join the board of peace	16	$270	164	115	+49	open	—	01-22 11:28
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	39	$261	158	176	-18	open	—	01-25 18:55
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	20	$246	149	134	+15	open	—	02-13 19:46
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes 328 877	40	$237	259	70	+189	open	—	01-25 02:42
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	26	$223	131	122	+9	open	—	01-21 17:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-25 10:35:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0xe4deb6…
06-25 10:32:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	35	50¢	$18	0x283827…
06-25 10:25:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x036916…
06-25 10:24:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xfe0b72…
06-25 10:23:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	65	7¢	$4	0x712769…
06-25 10:23:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	45	7¢	$3	0xdfb5af…
06-25 10:23:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0x5cd05a…
06-25 10:23:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x75e96c…
06-25 10:20:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x970156…
06-25 10:12:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0x0f55fd…
06-25 10:12:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0xdc5c36…
06-25 10:11:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x2f836e…
06-25 10:04:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	85	6¢	$5	0x565c11…
06-25 09:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x9835ee…
06-25 09:56:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x18c6b0…
06-25 09:36:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6325d0…
06-25 08:53:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	24	49¢	$12	0xd3c9ca…
06-25 07:15:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x11fc73…
06-25 07:04:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	155	5¢	$8	0xdcf389…
06-25 07:03:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	32	48¢	$15	0x1989a1…
06-05 15:22:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x7f8fe0…
06-05 14:48:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0x783c29…
06-02 12:45:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xee87c1…
06-02 12:44:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x6b248d…
06-02 09:52:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x173b07…
06-02 09:52:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0x1c15ce…
06-01 16:18:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$5	0x6b79e9…
06-01 16:17:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$3	0x8007c3…
06-01 16:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	87	4¢	$3	0x9f96a2…
06-01 16:08:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x0cd197…
06-01 16:06:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x480d66…
06-01 16:01:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x766b41…
06-01 15:54:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x95cb50…
06-01 15:53:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x67aa83…
06-01 15:53:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x170122…
06-01 15:53:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x61444f…
06-01 15:50:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x181b42…
06-01 15:50:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x2268fe…
06-01 15:49:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x07d5da…
06-01 15:49:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	39¢	$31	0x3ad3b1…
06-01 15:49:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x99d939…
06-01 15:49:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	350	4¢	$13	0x4a8ed9…
06-01 15:48:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	430	4¢	$16	0x3172da…
06-01 15:48:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$3	0x6a2974…
05-29 19:34:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x82f2b8…
05-29 19:30:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x79b311…
05-29 19:27:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0acf22…
05-29 17:53:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x5ba035…
05-29 17:53:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe5344a…
05-29 17:50:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x888cdb…
05-29 17:50:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x3dc548…
05-29 17:47:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x14b27e…
05-29 17:37:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xd2346b…
05-29 17:35:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x3b2aef…
05-06 15:53:46	DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?	No	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x8c6b49…
05-06 15:53:42	DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x7ccfc4…
05-06 12:01:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	37¢	$14	0x3fb0c0…
05-06 11:57:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	63¢	$10	0xca6bdf…
05-06 11:57:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	14	61¢	$9	0xda95aa…
05-06 11:57:02	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	61¢	$4	0xb4eacf…
05-06 11:56:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	8	61¢	$5	0x43e16b…
05-06 11:55:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	10	86¢	$9	0xc0aab8…
05-06 11:53:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	45	63¢	$28	0x484000…
05-06 11:53:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	45	37¢	$17	0x77a952…
05-06 11:46:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	80¢	$8	0x994c31…
05-06 11:45:54	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0x9b941e…
05-06 11:41:58	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x4e5872…
05-06 11:37:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	30¢	$2	0x6a38c4…
05-06 11:27:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x342b91…
05-06 11:25:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0xaa7524…
05-06 11:23:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	32¢	$4	0x5d3e68…
05-06 11:18:12	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	SELL	64	83¢	$53	0x5f6db5…
05-06 10:50:50	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x51583f…
05-06 10:50:14	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	10	73¢	$7	0xc6295e…
05-06 10:50:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0xf1e85f…
05-06 10:49:56	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	7	76¢	$5	0x1f265b…
05-06 10:49:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	18	76¢	$14	0x3eaf69…
05-06 10:49:42	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	BUY	9	76¢	$7	0x2c5b6e…
05-06 10:49:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x969d4d…
05-06 10:47:40	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	11	34¢	$4	0xd990b4…
05-06 10:46:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	28¢	$1	0xefdd9a…
05-06 10:43:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	44¢	$4	0xb5587c…
05-06 10:40:04	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	17¢	$3	0xe6146d…
05-06 10:34:20	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xd5080b…
05-06 10:34:06	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	15¢	$2	0xb19624…
05-06 10:33:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	36¢	$3	0x5f92a2…
05-06 10:20:46	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	32¢	$3	0x67b8a9…
05-05 21:38:52	Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	3	24¢	$1	0x4db5f6…
05-05 21:37:38	Will Airbnb (ABNB) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	17	24¢	$4	0x5fcf17…
05-05 20:40:22	Will RealReal (REAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	68¢	$3	0x10cdd6…
05-05 20:24:54	Will Cabot (CBT) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x9daae4…
05-05 20:14:28	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0x654279…
05-05 20:14:28	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	36	2¢	$1	0x50c12b…
05-05 14:38:06	Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	11	34¢	$4	0x1a587a…
05-05 14:15:28	Will Wynn Resorts (WYNN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x81859b…
05-05 11:40:04	Will Fidelity National Financial (FNF) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	57	29¢	$16	0x05f30b…
05-05 01:18:08	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	9	7¢	$1	0x31f489…
05-05 00:59:20	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	11	7¢	$1	0x2ffae3…
05-05 00:04:48	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xaf3002…
05-04 23:31:40	Will Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	28	7¢	$2	0x8882e0…