Grim-Bowtie — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$515

Unrealized P&L

+$68

Hit rate

70.1%

Resolved

478

Trades

5,255

lifetime

Volume

$33.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$334

9 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-19 21:48

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 81 days

Categories

Other

54% 61% -$467

Politics

45% 66% -$57

Tech

0% — —

Crypto

0% 80% +$13

Sports

0% 50% -$4

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-19).

Open positions (9) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	No	-194	-$123	92¢	$-180	-$57	05-02 10:36
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Yes	-117	-$70	97¢	$-114	-$45	05-01 14:16
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	Yes	-2,034	-$73	1¢	$-13	+$60	05-03 00:56
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?	No	-17	-$11	77¢	$-13	-$2	05-03 08:11
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	-386	-$27	2¢	$-7	+$20	07-19 21:48
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	-200	-$62	2¢	$-3	+$58	05-02 16:27
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Yes	-96	-$20	2¢	$-2	+$18	05-03 12:27
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?	Yes	-30	-$17	4¢	$-1	+$15	05-01 14:22
Revolut IPO before 2027?	Yes	-10	-$1	3¢	$-0	+$0	05-01 22:34

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	323	$1.5K	4,817	4,615	+203	Yes	+$166	01-31 01:43
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	115	$938	598	584	+14	Yes	+$22	02-10 11:13
israel strikes iran by january 31 2026 894 994 453	142	$863	630	487	+143	No	+$66	01-27 11:23
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	92	$858	828	704	+124	Yes	+$88	02-24 21:22
us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165	141	$844	538	529	+9	No	+$22	01-26 19:30
us strikes iran by february 13 2026 721 759 497 124 197 797 992 641 418 789 676 262 791 574 169 647 275 931	93	$792	501	566	-65	No	+$55	02-06 14:17
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	148	$731	608	453	+155	Yes	-$70	02-08 13:43
another us strike on venezuela on january 3	22	$661	257	455	-198	No	+$6	01-05 00:58
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	74	$586	295	345	-50	No	+$20	01-27 01:12
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?	112	$518	461	476	-15	Yes	+$31	02-08 16:14
another us strike on venezuela on january 12	27	$500	302	269	+33	No	+$10	01-07 17:35
another us strike on venezuela on january 4	18	$481	238	298	-60	No	+$9	01-05 16:19
another us strike on venezuela on january 5	17	$468	194	285	-91	No	+$8	01-05 11:34
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	110	$466	448	452	-3	Yes	-$126	02-02 15:31
will russia join the board of peace	94	$464	521	475	+46	No	+$40	01-31 00:25
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	77	$458	337	196	+141	No	+$30	02-01 13:33
will china invade taiwan by march 31 2026	55	$454	182	288	-106	No	-$1	01-21 21:59
israel strikes iran by march 31 2026	93	$441	474	317	+157	Yes	-$26	02-02 19:48
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	129	$405	1,117	1,184	-68	No	-$29	02-01 00:33
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	95	$400	446	455	-9	Yes	-$69	02-02 21:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	65	$386	953	953	+0	No	-$253	06-25 10:24
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 11, 2026?	24	$386	240	205	+35	No	+$10	01-09 20:02
Israel strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	78	$347	384	328	+56	Yes	-$4	02-13 17:26
will zelenskyy attend the world economic forum	99	$324	736	57	+679	Yes	-$51	01-21 23:41
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 45 minutes and 2 hours 578 355	50	$309	367	227	+140	No	-$8	01-25 02:31
jesus christ return before 2027 odds 5 monday night 12 1 am	47	$275	1,648	132	+1,516	No	-$116	02-16 23:51
will hungary join the board of peace	16	$270	164	115	+49	Yes	+$4	01-22 11:28
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	39	$261	158	176	-18	No	+$17	01-25 18:55
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	20	$246	149	134	+15	No	+$9	02-13 19:46
will alex honnold free solo taipei 101 in between 1 hour and 30 minutes and 1 hour and 45 minutes 328 877	40	$237	259	70	+189	Yes	+$17	01-25 02:42

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 21:48:24	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x8b0f38…
07-16 14:12:49	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	8¢	$1	0xc38eaf…
07-16 14:11:05	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xa04972…
07-16 13:54:58	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	8¢	$0	0xd8c1d3…
07-16 13:34:01	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	8¢	$2	0x0c8011…
07-09 21:18:23	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	58	7¢	$4	0x174ec3…
07-09 18:27:02	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	28	7¢	$2	0x9efeaa…
07-09 15:17:23	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	7¢	$0	0x337b70…
07-07 23:15:50	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	55	6¢	$3	0x990f03…
07-07 20:14:05	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0x71ac31…
07-07 17:53:11	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0xd28d61…
07-07 17:44:50	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0xae31db…
07-07 14:38:01	Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	6¢	$5	0x789dd9…
06-25 10:35:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	18	51¢	$9	0xe4deb6…
06-25 10:32:41	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	35	50¢	$18	0x283827…
06-25 10:25:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	50¢	$8	0x036916…
06-25 10:24:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0xfe0b72…
06-25 10:23:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	65	7¢	$4	0x712769…
06-25 10:23:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	45	7¢	$3	0xdfb5af…
06-25 10:23:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	38	7¢	$3	0x5cd05a…
06-25 10:23:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x75e96c…
06-25 10:20:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	32	7¢	$2	0x970156…
06-25 10:12:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	48	6¢	$3	0x0f55fd…
06-25 10:12:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0xdc5c36…
06-25 10:11:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x2f836e…
06-25 10:04:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	85	6¢	$5	0x565c11…
06-25 09:59:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	12	50¢	$6	0x9835ee…
06-25 09:56:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	10	6¢	$1	0x18c6b0…
06-25 09:36:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	5	6¢	$0	0x6325d0…
06-25 08:53:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	24	49¢	$12	0xd3c9ca…
06-25 07:15:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	22	5¢	$1	0x11fc73…
06-25 07:04:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	155	5¢	$8	0xdcf389…
06-25 07:03:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	32	48¢	$15	0x1989a1…
06-05 15:22:24	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	28	50¢	$14	0x7f8fe0…
06-05 14:48:03	Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	BUY	32	50¢	$16	0x783c29…
06-02 12:45:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	15	40¢	$6	0xee87c1…
06-02 12:44:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x6b248d…
06-02 09:52:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	35	21¢	$7	0x173b07…
06-02 09:52:38	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	25	40¢	$10	0x1c15ce…
06-01 16:18:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	140	4¢	$5	0x6b79e9…
06-01 16:17:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	97	4¢	$3	0x8007c3…
06-01 16:10:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	87	4¢	$3	0x9f96a2…
06-01 16:08:57	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x0cd197…
06-01 16:06:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	40	4¢	$2	0x480d66…
06-01 16:01:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x766b41…
06-01 15:54:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0x95cb50…
06-01 15:53:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	17¢	$5	0x67aa83…
06-01 15:53:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x170122…
06-01 15:53:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	60	18¢	$11	0x61444f…
06-01 15:50:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x181b42…
06-01 15:50:00	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x2268fe…
06-01 15:49:53	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	17¢	$7	0x07d5da…
06-01 15:49:46	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	80	39¢	$31	0x3ad3b1…
06-01 15:49:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	80	17¢	$14	0x99d939…
06-01 15:49:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	350	4¢	$13	0x4a8ed9…
06-01 15:48:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	430	4¢	$16	0x3172da…
06-01 15:48:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	Yes	BUY	90	4¢	$3	0x6a2974…
05-29 19:34:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x82f2b8…
05-29 19:30:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	15	38¢	$6	0x79b311…
05-29 19:27:21	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0acf22…
05-29 17:53:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	7	43¢	$3	0x5ba035…
05-29 17:53:28	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe5344a…
05-29 17:50:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0x888cdb…
05-29 17:50:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0x3dc548…
05-29 17:47:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0x14b27e…
05-29 17:37:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	44¢	$13	0xd2346b…
05-29 17:35:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	44¢	$22	0x3b2aef…
05-26 17:57:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	57¢	$6	0x7efce1…
05-26 17:04:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	8	58¢	$5	0x126ffb…
05-26 16:07:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	58¢	$12	0x1cffa4…
05-26 15:47:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe58f7d…
05-26 15:47:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x6f7fe6…
05-26 15:47:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xe34871…
05-26 15:47:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0xde7f8a…
05-26 15:26:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x39b03e…
05-26 15:13:31	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	37¢	$11	0xfcfdb4…
05-26 15:11:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	37¢	$4	0x2065bc…
05-26 14:50:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1	39¢	$0	0xaaf5f4…
05-26 14:50:35	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	19	39¢	$8	0xef8dca…
05-26 09:57:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x5ee6d0…
05-26 09:54:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x4c59e3…
05-26 09:06:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	16	42¢	$7	0x9ff08d…
05-26 08:57:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	43¢	$4	0xd29014…
05-26 08:57:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	4	42¢	$2	0xb7fdf9…
05-26 08:45:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x150da8…
05-26 08:42:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0xcaeca7…
05-26 08:42:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x64fe8c…
05-26 08:42:25	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0xf3bf98…
05-26 08:40:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0x1c27ed…
05-26 08:35:50	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xdfdff2…
05-26 08:03:15	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0xf30846…
05-26 08:03:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	18	60¢	$11	0xe0efd3…
05-26 08:02:10	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xd74524…
05-26 07:19:26	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	10	60¢	$6	0xabcfd6…
05-26 07:07:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	50	40¢	$20	0x0a4879…
05-26 07:06:56	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	40	40¢	$16	0x72f1f7…
05-06 15:53:46	DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?	No	BUY	12	39¢	$5	0x8c6b49…
05-06 15:53:42	DoorDash total orders above 940M in Q1?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x7ccfc4…
05-06 12:01:36	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	37¢	$14	0x3fb0c0…
05-06 11:57:48	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	15	63¢	$10	0xca6bdf…