Leading-Report — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$114

Unrealized P&L

-$8

Hit rate

44.6%

Resolved

Trades

152

lifetime

Volume

$1.79K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$22

4 positions

First seen

2026-04-02

last 11-04 18:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 33 days

Categories

Crypto

64% 26% +$15

Other

22% 30% -$132

Politics

11% 25% +$24

Sports

2% 25% -$22

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (4) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+25	$10	43¢	$11	+$1	11-04 17:57
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+32	$5	16¢	$5	+$0	11-04 17:56
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	+64	$5	7¢	$4	-$1	11-04 17:58
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	+43	$10	4¢	$2	-$8	05-26 18:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$251	250	233	+17	Up	+$228	04-27 13:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	6	$105	158	58	+100	Down	+$10	05-04 14:10
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	5	$76	73	36	+37	No	-$4	05-01 15:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	6	$74	402	29	+372	Up	-$16	05-04 19:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	2	$57	48	48	+0	Down	+$37	05-04 13:50
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	4	$56	170	170	+0	No	-$4	05-10 06:26
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	3	$55	58	37	+21	Down	+$15	05-04 09:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	4	$49	196	20	+177	Up	-$11	05-03 06:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	4	$43	57	15	+41	Down	-$12	05-04 18:45
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$41	21	21	+0	Up	+$1	04-27 14:00
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	3	$30	427	10	+417	No	-$10	05-29 13:42
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	2	$30	2,381	0	+2,381	Yes	-$30	04-19 06:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	4	$30	162	15	+147	Up	$0	05-12 15:36
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$29	78	68	+11	No	+$0	05-10 06:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	2	$27	17	17	+0	Up	+$7	05-01 15:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	9	$25	180	0	+180	Up	+$66	05-04 09:03
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	3	$25	2,510	2,500	+10	Yes	-$5	05-10 06:20
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$25	15	15	+0	Yes	+$5	04-24 22:07
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$24	14	14	+0	No	+$4	04-12 20:37
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány?	1	$20	6,667	0	+6,667	No	-$20	04-03 09:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	1	$20	2,000	0	+2,000	Down	-$20	04-27 13:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	2	$20	178	0	+178	Up	-$20	05-02 13:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	2	$20	42	0	+42	Down	+$5	04-30 13:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	2	$20	153	0	+153	Up	-$20	05-04 09:13
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	2	$20	405	0	+405	No	-$20	05-26 18:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	2	$20	138	0	+138	Up	-$20	05-04 08:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	2	$20	61	0	+61	Down	-$20	05-04 18:47
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	2	$20	139	0	+139	Down	-$20	05-04 18:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	2	$20	43	0	+43	Down	-$20	05-01 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	2	$20	129	0	+129	Down	-$20	05-04 14:03

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 18:12:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xc1ee63…
11-04 18:10:01	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	123	2¢	$2	0x97ff10…
11-04 17:58:12	Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	64	8¢	$5	0x794405…
11-04 17:57:30	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x8c351e…
11-04 17:56:04	Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	32	16¢	$5	0x240db1…
07-02 19:18:20	Will Jannik Sinner be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xe99ff9…
07-02 19:18:07	fifwc prt hrv 2026 07 02 team to advance	Portugal	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xb27471…
07-02 14:15:56	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	28	36¢	$10	0x0f2067…
06-23 12:40:14	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	69	14¢	$10	0x8130e5…
06-14 07:31:45	Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	85	12¢	$10	0x537212…
06-14 07:31:27	Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	200	5¢	$10	0xf88434…
05-30 18:56:40	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x2bdff6…
05-30 18:52:14	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	BUY	5,000	0¢	$5	0x772c3d…
05-29 13:47:27	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	39	38¢	$15	0xf1415c…
05-29 13:42:03	Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x63ecbd…
05-29 13:37:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0x5c1c1b…
05-26 18:18:42	Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	39	26¢	$10	0x8e46f3…
05-26 18:16:06	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	Yes	BUY	358	3¢	$10	0x86ce0d…
05-26 18:15:03	Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	23¢	$10	0xc989cf…
05-23 17:08:09	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	251	2¢	$5	0xa5d6e3…
05-23 17:02:15	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	Yes	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0xe2a1e9…
05-23 16:59:01	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	No	BUY	71	14¢	$10	0xde87e7…
05-22 17:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0x983b93…
05-22 17:06:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET	Up	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0xea21f4…
05-22 16:53:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	100	5¢	$5	0x543464…
05-22 16:53:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Down	BUY	62	8¢	$5	0x647e8a…
05-22 14:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	500	1¢	$5	0xaa23d7…
05-21 16:30:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0xce215d…
05-21 16:26:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0xd9934d…
05-19 15:26:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0xc02916…
05-19 15:22:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	31	16¢	$5	0x33fcc0…
05-19 15:20:22	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	81¢	$10	0xdb577b…
05-19 15:19:47	Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	50	20¢	$10	0x48d0fb…
05-19 15:16:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET	Up	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x0e070e…
05-19 15:07:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x0ccbea…
05-17 17:05:32	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	213	5¢	$10	0x6416c5…
05-16 13:11:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xeb4e66…
05-16 13:02:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	71	7¢	$5	0x7c7ad9…
05-16 13:01:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	25	20¢	$5	0x751d1b…
05-16 13:01:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	21	24¢	$5	0x3a7587…
05-16 13:01:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0xc9de93…
05-16 12:45:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Up	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x1a07a7…
05-16 12:40:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	36¢	$5	0x320cf3…
05-12 15:38:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	50	10¢	$5	0x6bac9d…
05-12 15:36:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x789e37…
05-12 15:33:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Down	BUY	147	3¢	$5	0x3df0bf…
05-12 15:30:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x27e686…
05-12 15:30:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET	Up	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x2cb997…
05-11 12:58:55	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	123	8¢	$10	0x2dc169…
05-10 06:26:02	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	170	15¢	$26	0x3d0173…
05-10 06:25:08	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	59	17¢	$10	0x97c3a5…
05-10 06:20:57	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	SELL	2,500	0¢	$5	0x52f316…
05-10 06:19:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	68	14¢	$9	0x213abd…
05-06 16:19:52	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	68	15¢	$10	0x96464b…
05-05 15:45:44	Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?	Yes	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x57cda2…
05-05 13:10:30	Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0xa0f23c…
05-05 13:08:22	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	No	BUY	2,500	0¢	$10	0xb0ef51…
05-05 13:07:34	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x876bdf…
05-04 19:02:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Up	BUY	29	35¢	$10	0x789d8b…
05-04 19:00:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	29	99¢	$29	0x05fc9a…
05-04 18:58:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	333	3¢	$10	0x0fcbf0…
05-04 18:56:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	14	69¢	$10	0xc62376…
05-04 18:55:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	18	35¢	$6	0xae83da…
05-04 18:55:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	15	58¢	$9	0xd5604e…
05-04 18:55:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Down	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x6721d6…
05-04 18:53:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x137aba…
05-04 18:52:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Up	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x40f433…
05-04 18:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	26	39¢	$10	0x3bcdfc…
05-04 18:46:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET	Up	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xbe7c18…
05-04 18:45:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0x82e31a…
05-04 18:42:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	16	47¢	$8	0x5ee248…
05-04 18:41:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x6d81d4…
05-04 18:41:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0x2287e4…
05-04 18:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET	Up	BUY	167	6¢	$10	0x651efe…
05-04 14:23:00	Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	BUY	45	22¢	$10	0x481d11…
05-04 14:10:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	SELL	58	99¢	$57	0xab6b1f…
05-04 14:09:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	63	16¢	$10	0x125f57…
05-04 14:08:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	15	50¢	$8	0xb3d5f6…
05-04 14:07:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x42774a…
05-04 14:06:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Up	BUY	22	45¢	$10	0xea00a2…
05-04 14:05:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Down	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0x0b88bf…
05-04 14:03:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0xff7469…
05-04 14:02:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET	Up	BUY	38	26¢	$10	0xd09fbe…
05-04 13:56:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	36	28¢	$10	0xa66b47…
05-04 13:50:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x78caf3…
05-04 13:47:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	48	21¢	$10	0x83f452…
05-04 13:43:40	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	56	18¢	$10	0xe44cab…
05-04 09:20:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	SELL	37	96¢	$35	0xb12b4b…
05-04 09:18:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xc3e92a…
05-04 09:18:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Down	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x11d0e2…
05-04 09:13:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x796b03…
05-04 09:13:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Down	BUY	62	16¢	$10	0x10e57f…
05-04 09:03:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	48	9¢	$4	0xbf11cf…
05-04 09:03:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x86b57a…
05-04 09:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	26	12¢	$3	0xd6e7fc…
05-04 09:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0xc71765…
05-04 09:01:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	1	12¢	$0	0x69d645…
05-04 09:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	16	12¢	$2	0xb8e214…
05-04 09:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	14	12¢	$2	0x4e7ffb…
05-04 09:01:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x116446…