Several-Inevitable — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$45

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

307

lifetime

Volume

$42.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$139

Open exposure

$178

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 06-12 17:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

41% 100% +$36

Other

33% 100% +$2

Crypto

16% 100% +$7

Tech

9% — —

Sports

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

35 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No		+178	$176	99¢	$177	+$1	06-06 20:59
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes		+178	$1	1¢	$1	$-0	06-12 12:55

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	5	$3.7K	1,877	1,877	+0	open	—	03-08 11:26
will iran strike israel on march 4	2	$3.6K	1,826	1,826	+0	open	—	03-08 02:00
will chatgpt be back in as the 1 free app in the us apple store by march 5	3	$3.6K	1,802	1,799	+3	open	—	03-07 02:21
Block Street FDV above $50M one day after launch?	4	$3.6K	1,788	1,788	+0	Yes	+$7	03-06 09:53
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	6	$3.5K	1,751	1,751	+0	open	—	03-08 08:39
trump out as president by march 31	24	$2.9K	1,496	1,438	+58	open	—	02-21 08:37
will israel strike gaza on march 4 2026	1	$1.9K	1,863	0	+1,863	open	—	03-08 02:02
idOS FDV above $80M one day after launch?	2	$1.8K	920	920	+0	No	+$0	03-07 05:03
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	13	$1.7K	865	865	+0	open	—	03-02 23:52
2026 us senate election republican odds under 55 by march 31	1	$1.0K	1,036	0	+1,036	open	—	03-07 10:55
will crude oil cl hit high 90 by end of march 124 949 438 563 647 712 323	2	$1.0K	1,030	0	+1,030	open	—	03-07 05:04
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the 2026 snap election?	9	$879	440	440	+0	open	—	02-13 21:28
will scott bessent attend the 2026 state of the union address	2	$858	866	0	+866	open	—	02-23 15:13
will gas hit high 3pt35 by march 31	1	$788	790	0	+790	open	—	03-07 11:52
idOS FDV above $20M one day after launch?	1	$788	788	0	+788	open	—	03-07 02:22
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	9	$779	412	412	+0	Yes	+$2	04-22 12:00
will the us next strike iran on february 28 2026 et	2	$771	389	389	+0	open	—	03-01 02:23
us x iran meeting by february 13 2026 452	5	$647	652	0	+652	open	—	02-14 05:29
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	5	$476	240	240	+0	open	—	05-14 15:20
Will Kendrick Lamar release a new song in 2026?	1	$469	469	0	+469	open	—	03-02 02:08
Fabric FDV above $100M one day after launch?	6	$397	207	190	+17	open	—	02-28 11:33
Trump out as President by June 30?	2	$296	150	150	+0	open	—	06-04 18:23
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	4	$284	145	145	+0	open	—	05-13 02:05
military action against iran ends on march 18 2026	4	$278	141	137	+4	open	—	03-21 06:21
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	2	$277	141	141	+0	open	—	05-06 11:35
Trump out as President by May 31?	2	$277	140	140	+0	open	—	05-02 07:03
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	2	$276	140	140	+0	open	—	04-16 11:26
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	3	$275	139	139	+0	open	—	04-15 05:07
Iran leadership change by March 13?	2	$260	140	122	+18	open	—	03-14 11:59
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	2	$246	129	129	+0	open	—	04-08 12:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 17:21:15	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x72f9d7…
06-12 12:55:19	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	1¢	$1	0x984de8…
06-06 20:59:06	Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	178	99¢	$176	0x55ce19…
06-04 18:23:06	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	SELL	150	99¢	$148	0x176fde…
06-04 12:08:03	spacex ipo closing market cap above 3pt4t	No	BUY	30	94¢	$28	0x19afd5…
06-03 09:07:14	Trump out as President by June 30?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x112b3b…
06-01 03:23:50	Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x60eb5d…
06-01 03:22:27	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xdb7bef…
05-28 13:42:44	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	32	1¢	$0	0x519441…
05-28 13:11:54	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x882fcf…
05-28 09:56:57	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x5b0d33…
05-28 09:53:01	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x6f5da1…
05-28 09:52:59	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfc51cf…
05-28 09:52:59	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x82dc64…
05-28 09:52:58	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xe83e72…
05-28 09:52:56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x251ff3…
05-28 09:39:06	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x97a7c3…
05-28 07:37:11	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	126	1¢	$1	0xa54380…
05-28 04:33:58	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x726a93…
05-28 04:33:56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa9d366…
05-28 04:33:56	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x1534d6…
05-28 04:33:54	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xfc357b…
05-28 04:33:51	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xa8ff98…
05-28 04:17:05	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	19	1¢	$0	0x5f1bef…
05-28 00:59:48	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xe92dd3…
05-26 02:00:09	Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	BUY	203	98¢	$199	0x448582…
05-25 02:11:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	8¢	$4	0x4ea19d…
05-24 13:35:24	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	50	57¢	$28	0x228f27…
05-20 02:46:36	Will Trump or Melania say "Barron" or "Genius" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0xecacf8…
05-20 02:37:32	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	Yes	BUY	30	0¢	$0	0xd78c45…
05-20 02:37:32	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xd78c45…
05-20 02:37:20	will trump or melania say six seven during the congressional picnic 948 932	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xb9e681…
05-20 02:37:04	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	Yes	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x3e8770…
05-20 02:35:59	will trump or melania say drone during the congressional picnic	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x51accf…
05-20 02:35:08	Will Trump or Melania say "King" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x1dbb7a…
05-20 02:35:03	will trump or melania say drone during the congressional picnic	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xa012f2…
05-20 02:34:49	Will Trump or Melania say "Ballroom" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0x9b00ae…
05-20 02:34:23	will trump or melania say six seven during the congressional picnic 948 932	No	SELL	30	100¢	$30	0x421174…
05-20 02:32:03	Will Trump or Melania say "Ballroom" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0x7ddcf0…
05-20 02:31:33	Will Trump or Melania say "King" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xc4cbc9…
05-20 02:30:34	will trump or melania say six seven during the congressional picnic 948 932	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xcc8f3d…
05-20 02:30:04	Will Trump or Melania say "Ballroom" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xdd9e5a…
05-20 02:29:46	Will Trump or Melania say "King" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0xc89f81…
05-20 02:25:57	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x80f786…
05-20 02:25:41	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xda0618…
05-20 02:23:30	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	Yes	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x66d656…
05-20 02:22:01	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb25ac2…
05-20 02:00:03	Will Trump or Melania say "Transgender" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x11eee2…
05-20 01:40:41	Will Trump or Melania say "Barron" or "Genius" during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	16	0¢	$0	0x6b16f9…
05-20 01:40:17	Will Trump or Melania say "Kid" or "Child" 5+ times during the Congressional Picnic?	Yes	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x5a8d6d…
05-20 01:38:19	Will Trump or Melania say "Beautiful" 3+ times during the Congressional Picnic?	No	BUY	20	0¢	$0	0x71ed6e…
05-20 01:26:32	Will Trump or Melania say "Kid" or "Child" 5+ times during the Congressional Picnic?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x9b5ce9…
05-19 12:02:23	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0xa4f91c…
05-19 12:01:15	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x129ec6…
05-19 11:42:10	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	SELL	308	27¢	$83	0xf9486f…
05-19 11:40:01	WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 19?	Down	BUY	308	27¢	$83	0x55bfa9…
05-14 15:20:35	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	SELL	240	100¢	$239	0xd161df…
05-14 13:30:55	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	40	98¢	$39	0x2322e7…
05-14 13:23:39	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	30	98¢	$29	0xe3c1eb…
05-14 13:15:46	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	50	98¢	$49	0x61ad29…
05-14 13:14:47	Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$119	0x2373e1…
05-14 10:29:21	Will Trump say "Friendship" during Chinese State Banquet?	Yes	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x0516f5…
05-14 10:26:26	Will Trump's remarks not air?	No	BUY	231	100¢	$230	0x1b52cf…
05-13 02:05:04	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	138	99¢	$136	0x275c04…
05-10 05:54:46	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	138	97¢	$134	0xb089bf…
05-10 03:35:59	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	SELL	7	98¢	$6	0x548b1e…
05-09 01:42:15	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?	No	BUY	7	98¢	$6	0xcf4a64…
05-06 11:35:56	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	SELL	141	99¢	$139	0x1eb36d…
05-04 10:31:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?	No	BUY	141	98¢	$138	0xe1d35e…
05-02 07:03:28	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	SELL	140	99¢	$139	0x6608a0…
04-30 04:49:02	Trump out as President by May 31?	No	BUY	140	98¢	$138	0x64267c…
04-22 12:00:10	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	140	95¢	$133	0xbf59ce…
04-19 13:13:42	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	140	94¢	$132	0x9fc397…
04-16 11:26:50	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	SELL	140	99¢	$138	0x746279…
04-15 21:53:22	Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$138	0x3b7475…
04-15 05:07:12	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	48	99¢	$47	0x8c3c7c…
04-15 05:03:16	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	91	99¢	$90	0xd7b362…
04-14 16:28:06	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	139	99¢	$137	0xba7174…
04-12 06:39:07	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	66	95¢	$63	0xa661c1…
04-12 06:34:17	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	31	95¢	$29	0x1ffd95…
04-12 06:30:49	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	SELL	47	95¢	$44	0xd36761…
04-09 21:51:27	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	144	94¢	$136	0xed9f75…
04-08 13:46:37	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	127	100¢	$127	0x513225…
04-08 12:07:59	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	129	98¢	$127	0xea47a6…
04-08 09:09:35	highest temperature in busan on april 8 2026 22corhigher	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x97ccd1…
04-07 11:53:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	129	92¢	$119	0x15cca6…
04-06 04:49:29	will trump post ai artificial intelligence on truth social this week	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xfadcbc…
04-06 04:49:15	will trump post elon musk on truth social this week	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd52673…
04-06 04:49:03	will trump post congresswoman on truth social this week 182	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2255fe…
04-06 04:48:49	will trump post boeing on truth social this week 378	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x7d7c6d…
04-06 04:48:37	will trump post kuwait on truth social this week	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x17af81…
04-06 04:48:23	will trump post statue on truth social this week	No	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x358216…
04-06 04:48:11	will trump post memphis on truth social this week	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x2b18e0…
04-06 04:47:55	will trump post palestine palestinian on truth social this week	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xa7b028…
04-06 04:47:43	will trump post gay on truth social this week	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x953d16…
04-06 04:47:23	will trump post epic fury on truth social this week 889	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x486e5c…
03-30 02:37:24	will gas hit low 3pt00 by march 31	No	SELL	41	100¢	$41	0xa1a9bf…
03-29 14:17:54	AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0xfca637…
03-29 14:17:02	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x49b2e9…
03-26 03:13:55	will trump say job 15 times at the nrcc dinner on march 25	No	BUY	66	100¢	$66	0xdab0b1…