Leading-Mare — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$170

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

59.4%

Resolved

2,927

Trades

16,812

lifetime

Volume

$37.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-02-22

last 10-27 16:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 85 days

Categories

Crypto

82% 63% +$455

Other

15% 45% -$139

Sports

2% 31% -$150

Politics

1% 36% +$4

Tech

0% 0% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 100 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes		+8	$5	64¢	$5	$0	10-27 04:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 13:40 UTC	239	$396	661	290	+370	Down	-$27	02-22 13:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 23:35 UTC	144	$355	550	240	+310	Down	+$21	02-22 23:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	6	$354	244	204	+40	Down	+$90	10-24 13:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	6	$303	170	170	+0	Down	-$3	10-25 18:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	6	$301	216	216	+0	Up	-$102	10-25 03:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 04:50 UTC	134	$260	526	180	+346	Up	-$7	02-23 04:53
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	6	$224	183	183	+0	Down	-$7	10-25 04:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 14:05 UTC	158	$224	431	134	+297	Up	-$33	02-22 14:08
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	8	$217	258	0	+258	Down	+$42	10-25 18:27
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-23 04:30 UTC	28	$215	272	7	+265	Down	+$9	02-23 04:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	5	$207	230	0	+230	Down	+$22	10-25 04:13
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 13:45 UTC	166	$205	377	57	+320	Up	-$9	02-22 13:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 23:45 UTC	108	$200	294	121	+173	Up	+$8	02-22 23:48
highest temperature in chicago on february 24 2026 46forhigher	9	$195	126	126	+0	No	-$1	02-25 01:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 13:15 UTC	152	$186	386	79	+307	Down	+$7	02-22 13:27
bitcoin up or down february 23 12am et	29	$180	365	0	+365	Up	+$53	02-23 05:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	6	$180	200	0	+200	Down	+$20	10-25 04:58
bitcoin up or down february 22 9pm et	12	$179	247	0	+247	Up	+$55	02-23 02:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	6	$178	196	0	+196	Up	+$18	10-25 21:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 17:35 UTC	133	$177	289	156	+134	Down	-$30	02-22 17:39
bitcoin up or down february 22 4pm et	14	$169	671	0	+671	Up	+$50	02-22 21:43
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-23 02:30 UTC	28	$168	493	0	+493	Up	-$29	02-23 02:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	3	$164	88	88	+0	Down	+$11	10-24 13:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 13:00 UTC	102	$164	357	66	+291	Up	+$20	02-22 13:11
bitcoin up or down february 23 11am et	91	$161	411	0	+411	Down	-$63	02-23 16:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 07:10 UTC	62	$158	271	85	+186	Up	+$40	02-23 07:12
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-22 14:30 UTC	82	$156	263	67	+196	Down	-$40	02-22 14:41
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	4	$155	169	0	+169	Down	+$15	10-24 04:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	5	$152	165	0	+165	Down	+$13	10-25 18:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-23 09:05 UTC	84	$148	236	94	+143	Down	-$6	02-23 09:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 16:33:05	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0xb678ec…
10-27 10:12:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in October?	No	BUY	8	95¢	$8	0x8fbec1…
10-27 04:31:57	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x8431a0…
10-25 21:14:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xae7e54…
10-25 21:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x649fbf…
10-25 21:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x5557b5…
10-25 21:13:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0x4ea19a…
10-25 21:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	91¢	$26	0xe8536d…
10-25 21:13:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0x3d14a3…
10-25 18:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	SELL	16	72¢	$12	0x4c4a10…
10-25 18:56:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	69¢	$26	0xb00437…
10-25 18:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x887b6b…
10-25 18:56:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET	Up	BUY	37	67¢	$25	0x49b778…
10-25 18:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	91¢	$25	0xf42b81…
10-25 18:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0xd8f9c8…
10-25 18:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	55	92¢	$51	0xc3f2b2…
10-25 18:43:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$26	0x0d9d12…
10-25 18:43:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET	Down	BUY	27	92¢	$25	0x4fb8f0…
10-25 18:43:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	SELL	170	88¢	$150	0x3884cc…
10-25 18:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0xce42aa…
10-25 18:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0xaa42a3…
10-25 18:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	90¢	$26	0x70c641…
10-25 18:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	57	90¢	$51	0x50d91b…
10-25 18:41:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET	Up	BUY	28	89¢	$25	0x32d33b…
10-25 18:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	29	87¢	$25	0xccfeb2…
10-25 18:27:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	29	88¢	$26	0x48ec0e…
10-25 18:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	30	82¢	$24	0x57bf83…
10-25 18:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0xf7a9a6…
10-25 18:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	82¢	$23	0xbcb38a…
10-25 18:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	57	82¢	$47	0x6ee999…
10-25 18:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0x4c470a…
10-25 18:27:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	Down	BUY	28	84¢	$24	0x4b58ef…
10-25 04:58:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	28	90¢	$25	0x9d1c06…
10-25 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	91¢	$26	0xe27929…
10-25 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0xbc2ef5…
10-25 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0xabb728…
10-25 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	57	90¢	$52	0x0a22bb…
10-25 04:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	90¢	$26	0x063fa3…
10-25 04:28:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	183	59¢	$109	0xb3b755…
10-25 04:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xe3c6c4…
10-25 04:27:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	61	63¢	$38	0x8804f7…
10-25 04:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0xfff7af…
10-25 04:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x9c5ab1…
10-25 04:27:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	30	63¢	$19	0x202bbd…
10-25 04:14:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	SELL	32	99¢	$31	0xbf3a4f…
10-25 04:13:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	32	77¢	$24	0x227fa6…
10-25 04:13:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	91¢	$52	0xcba2a9…
10-25 04:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	89¢	$51	0xef5ea5…
10-25 04:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	57	91¢	$52	0xd69616…
10-25 04:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	29	93¢	$27	0x5fe9c9…
10-25 04:13:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Down	BUY	29	88¢	$25	0x133350…
10-25 03:14:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	216	46¢	$99	0x2550e8…
10-25 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0xf9b089…
10-25 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0xa7431e…
10-25 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x8119c8…
10-25 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	54	93¢	$50	0x2886e8…
10-25 03:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	27	93¢	$25	0x020294…
10-24 13:59:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	46	99¢	$46	0x459796…
10-24 13:59:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	157	99¢	$156	0x62d67a…
10-24 13:59:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	SELL	88	99¢	$87	0x2f18bd…
10-24 13:57:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x8bb4fe…
10-24 13:57:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x25bc5d…
10-24 13:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x80a831…
10-24 13:57:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	41	63¢	$26	0x16a301…
10-24 13:56:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	59	87¢	$51	0x7cd1cf…
10-24 13:55:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Down	BUY	29	86¢	$25	0x4948f3…
10-24 04:28:30	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$5	0x9f3479…
10-24 04:27:51	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0xd6332c…
10-24 04:27:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0xe1b7dc…
10-24 04:27:41	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0x6aa0f5…
10-24 04:27:36	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	Yes	SELL	8	92¢	$7	0x29b24c…
10-24 04:27:32	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xcefcc0…
10-24 04:27:27	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	8	72¢	$6	0x465985…
10-24 04:27:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	40¢	$3	0xb6aaf3…
10-24 04:27:17	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	8	59¢	$5	0xb1c03f…
10-24 04:27:12	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	8	93¢	$7	0x2c703f…
10-24 04:26:54	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0x2581f5…
10-24 04:26:50	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x4e12e2…
10-24 04:26:47	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	SELL	8	90¢	$7	0x101016…
10-24 04:26:41	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	No	SELL	8	75¢	$6	0xb6cf2c…
10-24 04:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	91¢	$26	0xfdb952…
10-24 04:23:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	29	91¢	$26	0x65e340…
10-24 04:23:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	56	91¢	$51	0x986918…
10-24 04:23:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	56	92¢	$51	0x3418dc…
10-23 21:09:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	SELL	75	82¢	$61	0xea2fad…
10-23 21:08:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET	Up	BUY	75	67¢	$50	0x3b2e8e…
10-23 13:29:17	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	80¢	$13	0xe78f2e…
10-23 01:25:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	SELL	27	65¢	$18	0x064e6c…
10-23 01:24:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	27	73¢	$20	0x527e1c…
10-23 01:12:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	28	69¢	$19	0x5c4a35…
10-23 01:11:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET	Up	BUY	25	70¢	$17	0x48a3d3…
10-23 00:57:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 22, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	23	88¢	$20	0x1f2a56…
10-22 19:07:02	Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	16	73¢	$12	0x897327…
10-22 19:06:05	Will the Republicans win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	72¢	$12	0x9088b8…
10-21 20:58:56	Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-10-22?	Yes	SELL	34	55¢	$19	0x4b771b…
10-21 02:02:11	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x0ce95e…
10-21 02:01:51	Will Philadelphia 76ers win the 2027 NBA Finals?	No	BUY	8	89¢	$7	0x55c46b…
10-21 01:44:18	Will CD Guadalajara vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?	No	BUY	13	56¢	$7	0x256fb3…
10-21 01:29:50	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x4cb359…
10-21 01:29:30	Thunder vs. Spurs	Spurs	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0xd3fa58…