That-Manifestation — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

—

Unrealized P&L

+$111

Hit rate

—

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

41 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$3.11K lifetime

Avg / trade

$76

Open exposure

$864

1 position

First seen

2026-05-10

last 05-11 10:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 25% $-45

Politics

24% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

2 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No		+875	$753	99¢	$864	+$111	05-10 07:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$753	875	0	+875	open	—	05-10 07:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	5	$528	894	0	+894	Up	+$361	05-10 06:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	6	$511	1,012	406	+606	Up	+$74	05-10 04:27
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	1	$221	0	269	-269	Up	+$221	05-10 05:13
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	3	$175	148	224	-75	Down	$-21	05-10 05:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	1	$115	613	0	+613	Up	$-115	05-10 08:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	2	$110	803	0	+803	Down	$-110	05-10 08:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	1	$100	500	0	+500	Up	$-100	05-10 07:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	3	$99	241	54	+186	Down	$-72	05-10 05:52
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	2	$95	63	63	+0	Down	+$26	05-10 03:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	1	$88	338	0	+338	Down	$-88	05-10 08:11
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	2	$70	645	0	+645	Up	$-70	05-10 03:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET	1	$57	177	0	+177	Down	$-57	05-10 03:26
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	2	$55	38	38	+0	Down	+$18	05-10 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12AM ET	1	$50	146	0	+146	Down	$-50	05-10 04:58
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	1	$26	139	0	+139	Down	$-26	05-10 08:33
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	1	$24	0	25	-25	Up	$-1	05-10 08:23
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	3	$16	247	0	+247	Up	$-16	05-11 09:59
Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	2	$10	27	0	+27	Up	$-10	05-11 10:17
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	1	$6	91	0	+91	Up	$-6	05-10 03:03
Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	1	$2	98	0	+98	Up	$-2	05-10 05:27

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-11 10:17:57	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0xce37d9…
05-11 10:16:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 11, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x555173…
05-11 09:59:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x715bee…
05-11 09:57:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	106	5¢	$5	0xa18c0f…
05-11 09:52:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET	Down	BUY	41	24¢	$10	0x948d16…
05-10 08:33:59	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	Up	BUY	139	19¢	$26	0xf1c6f0…
05-10 08:23:22	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Up	SELL	25	96¢	$24	0x9a0385…
05-10 08:11:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	338	26¢	$88	0xf4dd87…
05-10 08:07:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Down	BUY	613	19¢	$115	0x6efca0…
05-10 08:04:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	500	2¢	$10	0x4119f1…
05-10 08:01:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	303	33¢	$100	0x26b0a4…
05-10 07:59:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	500	20¢	$100	0x401ec2…
05-10 07:18:41	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	875	86¢	$753	0xed2c1e…
05-10 06:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	318	85¢	$271	0x3c4d23…
05-10 06:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	200	60¢	$120	0x7d9e0e…
05-10 06:28:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xd5dfb9…
05-10 06:26:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	Up	BUY	270	37¢	$100	0xb427ed…
05-10 06:16:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2AM ET	Down	BUY	5	45¢	$2	0x1d7539…
05-10 05:52:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	214	29¢	$62	0x1d7dc5…
05-10 05:48:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	SELL	54	51¢	$28	0x49cf6d…
05-10 05:47:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	26	38¢	$10	0x302498…
05-10 05:37:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	124	40¢	$50	0xa7cb2f…
05-10 05:37:35	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	SELL	224	51¢	$115	0xdc0c13…
05-10 05:37:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x38258b…
05-10 05:27:26	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET	Down	BUY	98	2¢	$2	0x930cb0…
05-10 05:13:05	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Down	SELL	269	82¢	$221	0x14e2d0…
05-10 04:58:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	146	34¢	$50	0xe6c815…
05-10 04:27:32	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	69	10¢	$7	0x4d9d41…
05-10 04:27:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	100	12¢	$12	0x2e7421…
05-10 04:26:27	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	590	17¢	$100	0x81c0f2…
05-10 04:26:09	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	SELL	253	79¢	$200	0xfb25ff…
05-10 04:21:54	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	253	39¢	$100	0x3419a0…
05-10 04:21:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 10, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	SELL	153	60¢	$92	0xfc93bb…
05-10 03:26:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	177	32¢	$57	0xf923e9…
05-10 03:24:11	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	SELL	63	95¢	$60	0x37a6a3…
05-10 03:15:34	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET	Down	BUY	63	55¢	$35	0xe9bc45…
05-10 03:13:48	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	513	6¢	$30	0x42bac9…
05-10 03:10:18	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	132	30¢	$40	0x1b2563…
05-10 03:09:02	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	SELL	38	96¢	$37	0xc2b879…
05-10 03:05:24	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	38	49¢	$19	0x2bd443…
05-10 03:03:58	Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET	Down	BUY	91	6¢	$6	0x1077bb…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	17	$4.06K	163	05-11 09:58
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	14	$558	70	05-11 10:17
Grounded-Skull 0x6063…2705	8	$523	120	05-11 10:28
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	6	$8.48K	31	05-11 09:58
Lively-Authenticity 0xb55f…64d4	5	$7.15K	134	05-11 10:25
Incompatible-Coincidence 0x8f15…0d75	5	$1.14K	70	05-11 09:57
Exotic-Utility 0xa806…2c7c	4	$2.34K	35	05-10 07:53
Buttery-Trace 0xb021…ebd9	4	$1.79K	221	05-10 07:59