Klutzy-Avalanche — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

94.6%

Resolved

Trades

122

lifetime

Volume

$1.12K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-08

last 07-16 08:23

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

51% 100% +$4

Politics

22% — —

Tech

15% — —

Crypto

10% 0% $-5

Sports

3% 100% +$2

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

11 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	2	$91	74	74	+0	open	—	06-09 15:18
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	1	$71	74	0	+74	Yes	+$4	04-14 08:41
uef cze ire 2026 03 26 ire	1	$50	200	0	+200	open	—	03-26 19:45
will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	2	$44	28	28	+0	open	—	02-02 16:58
will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	3	$42	92	0	+92	open	—	04-12 18:16
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	2	$42	24	24	+0	open	—	04-15 13:00
will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	2	$38	39	39	+0	open	—	03-12 08:20
will trump say friend of mine during events with japanese pm	1	$37	45	0	+45	open	—	03-19 14:30
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	1	$31	0	33	-33	open	—	06-02 08:56
will powell say inflation 40 times during march press conference	1	$30	37	0	+37	open	—	03-18 14:46
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	1	$29	0	32	-32	open	—	07-07 13:38
us strikes iran by january 23 2026 494 711 798 734 155	2	$25	16	16	+0	open	—	01-20 10:09
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	2	$24	16	16	+0	open	—	04-12 18:15
will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	2	$24	14	14	+0	open	—	06-09 15:18
spx up or down on february 2 2026	2	$22	12	12	+0	open	—	02-02 17:30
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$21	12	12	+0	open	—	02-24 18:23
aapl above 230 on january 30 2026	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-26 21:35
will khamenei leave iran by jan 31 322	2	$20	11	11	+0	open	—	01-19 09:38
will bitcoin reach 95k in january 2026	2	$20	18	18	+0	open	—	01-08 15:11
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	2	$17	9	9	+0	open	—	04-15 16:02
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	1	$16	20	0	+20	open	—	03-23 19:41
will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	2	$15	22	22	+0	open	—	03-23 19:38
will google gemini 3 score at least 50 on the frontiermath benchmark	2	$13	29	29	+0	open	—	01-19 00:06
btc updown 5m 1782557700	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	06-27 10:57
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	2	$12	6	6	+0	open	—	01-14 13:12
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	2	$12	8	8	+0	Yes	+$2	03-23 19:40
spx opens up or down on january 26 2026	2	$12	8	8	+0	open	—	01-26 21:34
Will Silver hit 100 or Bitcoin hit 100k first?	1	$11	13	0	+13	open	—	01-20 10:11
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	2	$11	66	66	+0	open	—	03-19 17:41
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	2	$11	6	6	+0	open	—	07-07 13:37

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-16 08:23:53	Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027?	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x0a7f59…
07-09 09:55:47	btc updown 5m 1783590900	Up	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xe83d91…
07-07 13:38:55	Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?	No	SELL	32	93¢	$29	0xc6b63b…
07-07 13:38:35	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xed2753…
07-07 13:37:47	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	98¢	$6	0xecf996…
07-07 13:34:44	Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	Sinner	SELL	9	24¢	$2	0x21f52b…
07-02 12:40:26	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xcbb5b3…
06-30 09:54:04	Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026?	Sinner	BUY	9	74¢	$7	0x7f203d…
06-27 11:07:26	will bitcoin reach 62500 in june 2026 from june 25	Yes	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x30d36b…
06-27 11:05:53	will claude mythos 5 be restored for us customers by june 30 20260613213553562	Yes	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6ad73c…
06-27 10:57:26	btc updown 5m 1782557700	Up	SELL	8	89¢	$7	0x42c444…
06-27 10:55:44	btc updown 5m 1782557700	Up	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x53a68f…
06-26 06:49:55	GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0x85ad5f…
06-24 20:25:13	will claude fable 5 be restored for us customers by june 26	Yes	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xaed1c0…
06-24 19:51:46	will ethereum dip to 1500 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	7	52¢	$3	0x20c938…
06-09 15:24:33	Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xd4408e…
06-09 15:24:18	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	SELL	23	2¢	$0	0x289eb7…
06-09 15:18:55	will a claude mythos model be released by july 31 2026	Yes	SELL	14	97¢	$14	0xe39d5f…
06-09 15:18:36	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	74	96¢	$71	0x205be5…
06-02 08:59:58	Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev	Alexander Zverev	BUY	4	80¢	$3	0x8edaf7…
06-02 08:59:40	Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	74	27¢	$20	0x16a954…
06-02 08:59:26	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0xd9ae00…
06-02 08:56:21	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	No	SELL	33	94¢	$31	0x49f189…
05-13 11:03:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	33	15¢	$5	0xf059ee…
05-13 11:02:10	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x43f9a3…
05-05 13:44:08	Lakers vs. Thunder	Thunder	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0xc2cdd7…
04-30 15:56:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	SELL	33	0¢	$0	0xbbaaf1…
04-15 16:02:30	will trump say leo or pope during fox interview on wednesday	Yes	BUY	40	22¢	$9	0xe32ef6…
04-15 16:02:06	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	SELL	9	92¢	$9	0xbc436f…
04-15 13:00:08	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	SELL	24	91¢	$22	0x8b5db5…
04-14 08:41:23	Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	BUY	74	95¢	$71	0x2380ca…
04-13 18:47:53	Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0xb2e583…
04-12 18:16:35	btc updown 5m 1776017700	Up	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9c9466…
04-12 18:16:07	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	36	33¢	$12	0xca60c8…
04-12 18:15:11	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	SELL	16	89¢	$14	0xcd767c…
04-10 23:19:57	btc updown 5m 1775862900	Up	BUY	67	3¢	$2	0x1124de…
04-10 23:19:15	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	36	70¢	$25	0x89892f…
04-10 03:03:41	Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	41¢	$5	0x045309…
04-10 03:02:45	will rory mcilroy win the 2026 masters tournament	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x785e89…
04-06 18:01:55	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	Yes	BUY	23	44¢	$10	0xcbba95…
03-31 21:12:13	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	91¢	$9	0x84d0eb…
03-31 21:11:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April?	Yes	BUY	14	71¢	$10	0x3c340c…
03-31 21:10:49	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x533dbb…
03-27 15:02:37	btc updown 5m 1774623600	Down	BUY	16	31¢	$5	0xe20c85…
03-27 10:19:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	Yes	BUY	33	30¢	$10	0x557772…
03-26 19:45:09	uef cze ire 2026 03 26 ire	Yes	BUY	200	25¢	$50	0x2ce5d5…
03-23 19:41:05	US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	77¢	$16	0x37f40d…
03-23 19:40:39	btc updown 5m 1774294800	Up	BUY	27	37¢	$10	0x69beda…
03-23 19:40:21	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	SELL	8	78¢	$7	0xe1f0be…
03-23 19:40:13	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	19	26¢	$5	0xb725a4…
03-23 19:39:07	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	SELL	19	14¢	$3	0x48cf7e…
03-23 19:38:57	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	SELL	22	1¢	$0	0x6c061e…
03-19 17:41:07	russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	Yes	SELL	66	1¢	$1	0x3a3b8c…
03-19 14:30:39	will trump say friend of mine during events with japanese pm	Yes	BUY	45	81¢	$37	0xf11faf…
03-18 14:46:23	will powell say inflation 40 times during march press conference	Yes	BUY	37	82¢	$30	0x2b7498…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xf726dc…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xd7b70f…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0xcf9dc8…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	182	3¢	$5	0xaf6421…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x98ebdd…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x959801…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	44	3¢	$1	0x8d72d8…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	5	3¢	$0	0x6fedc5…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x6e95a6…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	7	3¢	$0	0x51ee27…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x467c5d…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x2d96e7…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x1333a5…
03-18 14:44:09	btc updown 5m 1773844800	Up	BUY	11	3¢	$0	0x08a2d6…
03-18 14:41:49	will the slovenian democratic party sds win the most seats in the 2026 slovenian parliamentary election 344	Yes	BUY	22	67¢	$15	0xf30bdf…
03-12 16:42:15	will ireland win the 2026 six nations championship	Yes	BUY	80	10¢	$8	0x1dbea5…
03-12 13:44:31	Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0x81fe45…
03-12 08:21:23	us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	Yes	BUY	19	26¢	$5	0xea3dfc…
03-12 08:20:13	will timothe chalamet win best actor at the 98th academy awards	No	SELL	39	59¢	$23	0x896de8…
02-26 12:51:08	US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0x18e8ed…
02-24 18:52:22	spx up or down on february 25 2026	Up	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x538b3f…
02-24 18:23:14	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	SELL	12	85¢	$11	0x7c3ace…
02-18 10:00:40	epl wol ars 2026 02 18 wol	No	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x1e58d9…
02-18 10:00:24	spx opens up or down on february 18 2026	Up	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0xad214f…
02-18 09:59:58	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x8e9fcb…
02-11 14:10:47	another us government shutdown by february 14	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xa75a8b…
02-10 10:50:31	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	8¢	$1	0x5a1c42…
02-09 13:44:59	Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	28¢	$4	0x9c1b1b…
02-03 13:27:42	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	SELL	4	92¢	$4	0xb327ea…
02-02 23:23:22	us x iran nuclear talks resume by march 31	Yes	BUY	4	89¢	$4	0xaddb12…
02-02 23:22:20	bitcoin above 78k on february 3	Yes	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x8b8374…
02-02 23:20:54	btc updown 15m 1770074100	Up	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x3ceb86…
02-02 17:31:46	Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?	Yes	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0xb5be5d…
02-02 17:30:54	spx up or down on february 2 2026	Up	SELL	12	97¢	$11	0x22b9f7…
02-02 17:00:16	will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	Yes	BUY	14	66¢	$9	0xb1867f…
02-02 16:59:44	spx up or down on february 2 2026	Up	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x2b71e3…
02-02 16:59:30	will the government shutdown last 5 days or more	Yes	BUY	14	55¢	$7	0x24ccd6…
02-02 16:58:28	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	Yes	SELL	28	99¢	$27	0x00c268…
01-31 21:10:28	will the government shutdown last 4 days or more 831	Yes	BUY	28	61¢	$17	0xd7742d…
01-30 10:02:36	will trump say thank you 8 times during fed chair announcement	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0x49fbf9…
01-26 21:37:27	spx opens up or down on january 27 2026	Up	BUY	12	68¢	$8	0x84a466…
01-26 21:37:09	axp quarterly earnings gaap eps 01 30 2026 3pt53	Yes	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0xc2d9cd…
01-26 21:35:23	aapl above 230 on january 30 2026	Yes	SELL	11	95¢	$10	0x0306e6…
01-26 21:34:29	spx opens up or down on january 26 2026	Up	SELL	8	100¢	$8	0x69bad5…
01-24 22:23:38	spx opens up or down on january 26 2026	Up	BUY	8	49¢	$4	0x09b1ff…