Actual-Characterization — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$369

Unrealized P&L

-$340

Hit rate

74.7%

Resolved

434

Trades

4,394

lifetime

Volume

$52.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$12

Open exposure

$1.12K

23 positions

First seen

2026-04-06

last 10-24 01:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 104 days

Categories

Politics

57% 50% +$99

Other

38% 69% +$248

Sports

3% 36% -$9

Tech

2% 56% +$38

Crypto

0% 7% -$7

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 16 trades/day

Open positions (23) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	No	+283	$187	86¢	$242	+$56	07-09 00:23
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	No	+209	$133	94¢	$195	+$63	07-11 22:11
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	+801	$127	15¢	$124	-$4	10-24 01:09
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	No	+120	$72	86¢	$104	+$32	07-11 20:31
will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	No	+111	$66	92¢	$102	+$36	07-10 12:38
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	+120	$86	58¢	$69	-$17	10-18 19:20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	+213	$171	32¢	$69	-$101	10-04 00:00
Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	+102	$56	65¢	$67	+$10	09-26 20:24
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	Yes	+46	$35	94¢	$44	+$9	07-15 18:06
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	Yes	+283	$107	15¢	$41	-$66	07-13 12:42
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	Yes	+120	$49	14¢	$16	-$33	07-13 02:41
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	Yes	+209	$120	6¢	$14	-$106	07-13 07:39
next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	+35	$21	34¢	$12	-$9	10-16 23:04
will openais valuation hit low 800b by december 31 852 948	Yes	+111	$49	8¢	$9	-$40	07-13 12:07
will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	No	+5	$3	87¢	$4	+$1	07-07 22:20
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?	No	+46	$5	6¢	$3	-$2	07-12 04:42
michael saylor federally charged by december 31 2026 20260625210239195	No	+1	$0	96¢	$1	+$0	06-27 08:25
will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	Yes	+5	$162	13¢	$1	-$162	07-13 02:40
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	No	+0	$2	90¢	$0	-$1	06-28 01:08
Iran leadership change by December 31?	No	+0	-$3	85¢	$0	+$3	08-02 07:21
will the unsc adopt a resolution endorsing the final us iran deal by date	Yes	+0	-$1	10¢	$0	+$1	07-09 01:59
will a us iran deal in 2026 include surrender of iranian enriched uranium 20260623023201640	Yes	+0	$9	11¢	$0	-$9	07-21 02:52
Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship?	Yes	+0	-$1	7¢	$0	+$1	07-15 16:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	83	$2.7K	1,730	1,730	+0	Yes	+$52	07-13 03:41
iran charges hormuz fees by august 31 20260625175039062 177	82	$2.3K	2,645	1,538	+1,107	No	+$59	07-13 12:28
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	44	$1.5K	810	809	+1	No	+$39	05-20 06:51
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	122	$1.4K	2,139	339	+1,799	No	-$291	06-29 03:56
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?	45	$1.1K	865	804	+61	No	+$18	07-13 02:43
will donald trump attend the us iran signing ceremony 20260615232204740	19	$1.0K	595	595	+0	No	+$64	07-06 12:03
will iran close its airspace by june 14 20260609184136052	34	$1.0K	834	832	+3	No	+$64	06-14 22:57
will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846	59	$1.0K	704	604	+100	No	+$18	07-09 04:21
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	38	$966	887	887	-0	No	+$137	06-24 08:23
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	20	$951	830	500	+330	Yes	-$11	06-15 23:50
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 0 39	62	$878	899	486	+413	No	-$371	04-22 06:46
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?	34	$861	787	125	+662	No	+$51	05-16 18:09
iran charges hormuz fees by july 31	28	$855	498	481	+16	No	-$5	07-14 01:19
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 280 299	45	$685	427	360	+67	Yes	+$14	04-14 17:36
will steve witkoff sign a uptspt x iran deal by july 31 20260611235950071	14	$682	421	421	+0	No	+$21	07-13 02:53
us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026	43	$656	868	868	-0	open	—	08-19 12:34
mojtaba khamenei seen in public by july 31 827 659	51	$643	600	587	+13	No	+$54	07-10 22:42
iran charges hormuz fees by july 15 20260625175039061	8	$549	298	298	+0	No	+$6	07-13 09:59
elon musk of tweets april 18 april 20 0 39	41	$539	295	288	+6	No	+$6	04-20 06:58
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	21	$531	440	320	+120	open	—	10-18 19:20
will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636	21	$522	629	619	+10	open	—	07-13 02:40
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	40	$484	359	344	+15	Yes	-$86	05-18 20:43
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639	30	$469	733	166	+566	open	—	07-13 12:42
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638	34	$452	749	331	+418	open	—	07-13 07:39
will a 5 uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201637	38	$446	668	428	+239	open	—	07-13 02:41
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	16	$420	300	300	+0	No	-$8	07-13 03:29
will iran close its airspace by december 31 20260609184136058	23	$414	440	322	+118	Yes	-$25	06-17 13:12
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	9	$396	426	213	+213	open	—	10-04 00:00
israel closes its airspace by august 31	9	$391	275	274	+1	No	-$7	07-13 10:56
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?	40	$390	359	357	+2	Yes	+$5	06-19 12:52

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 01:09:14	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$64	0x9b114a…
10-24 01:09:14	Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	BUY	400	16¢	$64	0x5b0aa7…
10-18 19:20:26	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0xc84ca0…
10-18 19:20:26	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	60	52¢	$31	0x1584d8…
10-17 15:28:38	Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?	No	SELL	3	55¢	$2	0x87b0e6…
10-17 15:28:03	Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?	No	SELL	0	55¢	$0	0x398181…
10-17 15:27:42	Will $ANSEM dip to $0.08 before 2027?	No	SELL	10	55¢	$5	0x18ec07…
10-16 23:04:48	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	18	58¢	$10	0xa9f9a7…
10-16 22:51:24	next white house press secretary announced by november 30 2026	Yes	BUY	18	59¢	$10	0x140ea8…
10-13 23:00:19	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	92	97¢	$89	0x911ca5…
10-13 22:58:07	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x86e009…
10-13 22:49:22	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0xb7fd20…
10-13 22:47:57	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0xdc8355…
10-13 22:47:55	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	17	97¢	$16	0x2b8f50…
10-13 22:47:43	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	33	86¢	$28	0x966949…
10-13 22:42:33	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?	Yes	BUY	49	84¢	$41	0xdfd486…
10-11 16:09:03	Will Trump rename an ocean in 2026?	Yes	BUY	438	3¢	$12	0x774615…
10-04 00:00:32	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	53¢	$10	0xf0a563…
10-03 19:42:07	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	53¢	$2	0x2892ff…
10-03 18:05:41	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	189	53¢	$100	0xa46584…
10-03 17:00:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	SELL	2	53¢	$1	0xc330dd…
09-30 20:14:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	173	66¢	$114	0xe6edd9…
09-30 20:14:12	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	66¢	$26	0x0dca9b…
09-30 20:14:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	152	67¢	$102	0x87f63b…
09-30 20:13:51	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xc96a6c…
09-30 20:06:32	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	64¢	$4	0xf3ce27…
09-30 20:06:30	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	64¢	$13	0x892f06…
09-26 20:24:36	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0xc05da0…
09-26 20:24:36	Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	51	55¢	$28	0x8c8d76…
09-26 05:53:29	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	94	87¢	$82	0xe6993f…
09-26 05:53:29	will the next claude opus model debut at a score of at least 1520 by december 31 2026 20261231	No	BUY	32	87¢	$28	0x2e6972…
09-26 02:14:41	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	24	96¢	$23	0x8b4bec…
09-26 01:33:03	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0xfc01bf…
09-26 01:33:02	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	4	62¢	$2	0x7358e3…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	125	75¢	$93	0xca7010…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	0	62¢	$0	0xc83e51…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0xa9d9f7…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	74¢	$22	0x8d54bf…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	111	74¢	$82	0x5abb52…
09-26 01:33:00	Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x49765a…
09-11 23:16:22	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Yes	BUY	57	67¢	$38	0x5223e4…
09-09 20:45:07	Will the Democratic Party win the MO-05 House seat?	Yes	BUY	7	65¢	$5	0xaf8ba4…
09-06 18:24:39	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	Grüne	SELL	28	30¢	$8	0x97dadc…
09-06 17:29:16	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	Grüne	SELL	168	49¢	$82	0x99405c…
09-06 16:07:39	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	406	50¢	$203	0x91b8fd…
09-06 16:00:46	Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Election: More Votes to SPD or Grüne?	Grüne	BUY	2	50¢	$1	0x1fb22d…
08-31 13:57:13	Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?	No	SELL	5	91¢	$5	0xa87e5b…
08-27 21:06:27	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	11	49¢	$5	0x7434ea…
08-27 10:23:36	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0x3c83e9…
08-27 10:02:12	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	13	50¢	$6	0x61dfa4…
08-26 23:30:43	Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	BUY	6	51¢	$3	0x43eb12…
08-25 16:34:10	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?	Yes	SELL	8	7¢	$1	0x01a4c0…
08-25 11:33:28	Will Aurelien Tchouameni stay at Real Madrid?	No	SELL	15	4¢	$1	0x68bce4…
08-24 18:58:27	Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 2.25% and 2.99%?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0xfe2237…
08-22 09:55:51	taylor travis divorce in 2026 20260706221307677	Yes	SELL	15	3¢	$0	0xffc9cb…
08-19 19:55:19	Will United Russia win between 325 and 339 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x20d384…
08-19 12:34:15	us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 191	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0xd4b1e4…
08-19 12:33:49	Will Atlético Madrid win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	1	96¢	$1	0x415572…
08-19 12:33:34	will neuralinks valuation hit low 32pt5b by december 31	Yes	SELL	4	2¢	$0	0x53f096…
08-19 12:33:24	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by september 30 944	Yes	SELL	2	6¢	$0	0xdd31b5…
08-19 12:33:12	will databricks valuation hit high 190b by december 31	No	SELL	2	0¢	$0	0xdc8b5f…
08-19 12:33:01	Will Marcus Rashford join AC Milan?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0xbaa6b2…
08-19 12:32:52	Will Kylian Mbappe leave Real Madrid before August 31?	Yes	SELL	5	0¢	$0	0x4be1ef…
08-19 12:32:43	Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	14¢	$0	0xc8348b…
08-19 12:31:55	abbas araghchi out as minister of foreign affairs of iran by december 31 2026 20260709234123318	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x00bfff…
08-19 12:31:40	will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt75t by december 31 328	No	SELL	2	16¢	$0	0xe93cb1…
08-19 12:31:13	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	2	67¢	$2	0x0ab5f7…
08-19 12:30:57	ink fdv above 100m one day after launch	No	SELL	2	69¢	$1	0x08f7bd…
08-19 12:30:39	nigel farage out as reform uk leader in 2026 20260622233131512	No	SELL	2	84¢	$2	0xf9b86c…
08-19 12:30:21	Will Grüne win the third-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0xf76990…
08-19 12:29:57	will gleans valuation hit low 4b by december 31 20260701011238547	No	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x1c827b…
08-18 05:40:31	Theo FDV above $100M one day after launch?	No	SELL	5	57¢	$3	0x195afa…
08-17 22:08:12	Will the Moderate Party (M) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	15	18¢	$3	0xb5a46c…
08-17 21:05:07	le pen ankle monitor before french presidential election 20260708202050689	Yes	SELL	18	14¢	$3	0xcab28e…
08-17 17:48:54	mojtaba khamenei seen in public by august 31 223	Yes	SELL	16	3¢	$1	0x135672…
08-17 10:14:07	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	11	68¢	$7	0x75cd08…
08-17 10:13:49	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	3	68¢	$2	0x98beb5…
08-17 10:11:15	Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	63	68¢	$43	0xe27ef4…
08-17 08:28:15	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	5	95¢	$5	0x4c4d0b…
08-16 18:36:13	trump calls nicki minaj hot again in 2026 20260708230616939	No	SELL	5	84¢	$4	0xaa463b…
08-15 19:49:01	Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 4.00% and 4.49%?	Yes	SELL	5	10¢	$0	0xcab76e…
08-15 16:52:30	Will Trump and Putin not meet?	No	SELL	68	40¢	$27	0xa12afd…
08-14 12:25:52	le pen ankle monitor before french presidential election 20260708202050689	Yes	SELL	17	18¢	$3	0x56e65e…
08-14 11:24:54	Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?	Yes	SELL	38	13¢	$5	0xdfafe7…
08-12 23:50:12	will stripes valuation hit high 225b by december 31	No	SELL	10	72¢	$7	0x03ef64…
08-10 18:05:12	Will voter turnout be between 47% and 50% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	53	8¢	$4	0xcd919e…
08-10 01:57:00	Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the third most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x6ad6f3…
08-09 15:19:06	le pen ankle monitor before french presidential election 20260708202050689	Yes	SELL	4	18¢	$1	0x4bb1b2…
08-09 14:07:10	le pen ankle monitor before french presidential election 20260708202050689	Yes	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0x754a33…
08-09 13:32:27	will smith college exclude trans women in 2026 20260626143843566	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x671dcc…
08-08 03:45:27	Will Citizens’ Movement (MC) win the second most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?	Yes	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0x7315b6…
08-07 22:38:18	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	13	9¢	$1	0x0bd2f2…
08-07 18:03:09	ostium fdv above 75m one day after launch	No	SELL	5	85¢	$4	0xc96284…
08-07 12:07:54	Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	SELL	208	6¢	$13	0x19d683…
08-06 20:56:05	will openais valuation hit low 600b by december 31 187 246	No	SELL	16	88¢	$14	0x4487a1…
08-06 00:20:26	will neuralinks valuation hit low 25b by december 31	No	SELL	4	86¢	$3	0x892fa5…
08-06 00:20:23	will neuralinks valuation hit low 25b by december 31	No	SELL	1	86¢	$1	0xd3492e…
08-05 18:03:32	will perplexitys valuation hit low 15b by december 31	No	SELL	5	39¢	$2	0x2a60e7…
08-04 13:33:26	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	Yes	SELL	27	10¢	$3	0x416e32…
08-04 12:34:18	iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by september 30 20260709004922353	Yes	SELL	25	10¢	$2	0x212a8c…