Third-Instrumentation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

+$1

Hit rate

20.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$199

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

$118

4 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 05-14 04:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Sports

61% 50% $-4

Other

32% — —

Politics

7% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 4 trades/day

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	-130	$-80	64¢	$-84	$-4	05-14 03:36
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	-269	$-25	7¢	$-19	+$5	05-13 00:12
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	+32	$9	25¢	$8	$-1	05-13 00:31
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	-39	$-6	16¢	$-6	$-1	05-08 23:01

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-14 04:10:20	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	Real Madrid CF	SELL	61	32¢	$20	0xadbcc9…
05-14 03:44:12	Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	Real Madrid CF	BUY	61	33¢	$20	0x32982d…
05-14 03:36:51	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	116	63¢	$73	0x0608c8…
05-14 03:12:07	San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	San Francisco Giants	SELL	25	5¢	$1	0x31a40c…
05-13 00:31:27	Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	Yes	BUY	32	28¢	$9	0xed92d8…
05-13 00:12:12	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	109	9¢	$9	0x891400…
05-11 00:13:46	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	69	4¢	$3	0x4a9eb5…
05-11 00:13:20	Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	Spurs	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xefebb3…
05-10 16:20:29	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	15¢	$5	0xb30537…
05-10 15:47:45	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	34	14¢	$5	0xc4a1b2…
05-08 23:01:17	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	65	15¢	$10	0x2adb77…
05-08 04:53:26	Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	Yes	SELL	13	50¢	$7	0xdb7a4b…
05-08 04:53:16	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	160	10¢	$16	0x24df08…
05-07 23:21:40	Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	104	15¢	$16	0x7531dd…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	6	$1.90K	48	05-14 11:25
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	3	$754	14	05-14 03:00

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	2	$80	0	130	-130	open	—	05-14 03:36
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5)	2	$40	61	61	+0	open	—	05-14 04:10
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$26	65	104	-39	open	—	05-08 23:01
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	2	$25	0	269	-269	open	—	05-13 00:12
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	3	$13	69	69	+0	open	—	05-11 00:13
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?	1	$9	32	0	+32	open	—	05-13 00:31
Spread: Spurs (-4.5)	1	$5	11	0	+11	Timberwolves	$-5	05-11 00:13
San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers	1	$1	0	25	-25	Los Angeles Dodgers	+$1	05-14 03:12