Realized P&L
-$212
Unrealized P&L
+$1
Hit rate
58.6%
Resolved
745
Trades
897
lifetime
Volume
$8.94K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$10
Open exposure
$182
22 positions
First seen
2026-01-03
last 10-27 11:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 216 days
Categories
Other
81% 48% -$394
Sports
9% 61% +$175
Politics
7% 50% -$8
Crypto
2% 60% +$6
Tech
1% 50% +$5
Pop-Culture
0% 100% +$4
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
74 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins win the 2026 Alaska governor election? Yes +24 $10 88¢ $21 +$11 08-19 15:38
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026? Yes +17 $10 96¢ $17 +$7 06-11 12:04
will hamas agree to disarm by december 31 No +17 $10 93¢ $16 +$6 08-10 09:55
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting? No +15 $10 98¢ $15 +$5 09-09 19:54
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? No +15 $10 94¢ $15 +$5 09-30 15:26
will iran reconstruction funding be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201638 No +15 $10 94¢ $14 +$4 06-29 13:39
will dilution of iranian uranium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201639 No +15 $10 88¢ $13 +$3 06-27 11:45
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in October? No +20 $11 56¢ $11 +$1 10-27 11:53
Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes +27 $10 39¢ $11 +$1 08-15 08:57
Will Anthropic's public ticker be $ANT? Yes +10 $7 97¢ $10 +$3 10-23 13:57
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31? No +10 $6 88¢ $9 +$3 05-01 01:21
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? No +17 $10 44¢ $7 -$3 08-26 12:13
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +10 $6 52¢ $5 -$1 10-06 15:43
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? No +10 $5 43¢ $4 $0 10-15 02:41
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No +15 $10 18¢ $3 -$7 08-22 09:32
Will Zcash reach $2000 by December 31, 2026? Yes +10 $5 26¢ $3 -$3 09-17 14:14
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026? No +10 $7 26¢ $3 -$4 10-11 12:44
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes +10 $5 24¢ $2 -$3 09-12 22:29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? Yes +15 $10 13¢ $2 -$8 05-25 17:58
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31? Yes +10 $6 18¢ $2 -$5 10-10 01:34
Will Snapchat be acquired before 2027? Yes +10 $3 4¢ $0 -$3 04-29 21:47
will anthropic ipo by october 31 2026 Yes +17 $10 0¢ $0 -$10 08-08 12:26