Worse-Pocketwatch — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

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Unrealized P&L

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Hit rate

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Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

2,763 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$1.04M lifetime

Avg / trade

$377

Open exposure

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0 positions

First seen

2026-01-02

last 07-05 22:31

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 125 days

Categories

Other

56% 69% -$6,272

Crypto

21% 85% +$113

Politics

14% 72% -$2,021

Tech

8% 75% +$61

Sports

0% 29% -$44

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-05).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
russia x ukraine ceasefire by january 31 2026	84	$52.0K	29,843	31,854	-2,011	No	+$9	01-24 21:30
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	129	$29.4K	15,924	14,101	+1,823	Yes	+$43	02-27 10:46
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by january 31	45	$28.6K	16,400	16,400	+0	No	-$1	01-25 19:17
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on january 31 985	151	$23.0K	12,057	12,057	+0	Yes	+$21	01-22 13:22
microstrategy sells any bitcoin by march 31 2026	40	$20.2K	8,988	11,712	-2,724	No	-$102	02-24 10:13
russia x ukraine ceasefire by february 28 2026	17	$16.4K	8,346	8,346	+0	No	+$7	02-24 10:13
will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026	38	$14.6K	17,211	17,211	+0	No	+$1	01-24 21:40
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	64	$12.9K	6,731	6,731	+0	Yes	-$35	04-22 15:14
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	14	$12.8K	7,500	5,900	+1,600	No	+$79	03-30 09:45
will peoples party pple win the most seats in the 2026 thai legislative election	21	$12.6K	9,317	9,317	+0	No	-$1,306	02-08 11:46
elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 340 359	75	$12.6K	6,556	6,552	+4	No	-$252	04-14 12:10
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by January 31, 2026?	29	$12.4K	6,901	7,017	-117	No	-$22	01-26 15:32
russia x ukraine ceasefire by march 31 2026	14	$12.1K	6,188	6,188	+0	No	+$16	03-14 12:40
elon musk of tweets march 6 march 13 520 539	44	$10.7K	5,366	5,366	+0	No	+$7	03-11 10:21
elon musk of tweets march 24 march 31 360 379	57	$9.2K	4,721	4,721	+0	No	+$21	03-28 23:29
will silver si hit low 40 by end of february 776 791 516 257 572 135 547 179	31	$9.1K	4,629	4,629	+0	No	+$3	02-13 15:11
elon musk of tweets february 17 february 24 200 219	11	$9.0K	4,611	4,415	+195	No	+$4	02-20 12:03
will the iranian regime fall by january 31	8	$8.9K	4,931	4,931	+0	No	-$103	01-23 17:59
elon musk of tweets december 30 january 6 680 699	30	$8.8K	4,500	4,350	+150	No	-$15	01-05 00:46
elon musk of tweets january 30 february 6 320 339	38	$7.9K	3,970	3,970	+0	No	+$10	02-06 15:37
bitcoin above 64k on march 12	12	$7.9K	4,947	2,947	+2,000	Yes	+$9	03-12 11:01
elon musk of tweets january 6 january 13 500 519	26	$7.4K	3,890	3,550	+340	No	+$10	01-12 02:04
will bitcoin reach 115k in february 2026	4	$7.1K	3,570	3,570	+0	No	$0	02-07 18:42
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	27	$6.9K	3,602	3,602	+0	Yes	+$22	03-28 13:26
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 360 379	25	$6.7K	3,400	3,400	+0	No	+$33	03-26 19:29
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 180 199	8	$6.7K	3,393	3,393	-0	No	-$95	03-16 18:37
elon musk of tweets march 20 march 27 520 539	5	$6.5K	3,280	3,280	+0	No	-$24	03-23 11:22
bitcoin above 68k on april 15	7	$6.4K	3,200	3,199	+1	Yes	+$8	04-15 11:55
elon musk of tweets march 13 march 20 520 539	7	$6.1K	3,079	3,079	+0	No	-$5	03-15 11:16
will bitcoin dip to 78k january 5 11	135	$6.1K	3,100	3,044	+56	No	+$6	01-09 16:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-05 22:31:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	SELL	2,400	16¢	$384	0x25e510…
06-28 19:53:35	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082	Yes	BUY	1,411	76¢	$1,077	0x07c7cb…
06-28 14:38:25	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082	Yes	BUY	17	64¢	$11	0x7831fd…
06-28 14:38:13	will 60 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day by july 31 2026 20260626152655082	Yes	BUY	60	64¢	$39	0x1f70b6…
06-14 12:50:46	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	380	85¢	$323	0x9c6dc1…
06-14 12:46:18	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	0	85¢	$0	0xdae467…
06-14 12:46:07	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by july 31	Yes	BUY	619	85¢	$527	0x5e43da…
06-14 11:00:28	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,109	47¢	$521	0x664805…
06-13 08:55:33	US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,200	80¢	$960	0x027da0…
06-13 08:53:55	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	SELL	2,400	16¢	$384	0xd5e462…
05-25 13:23:24	Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group Stage	Phantom	BUY	6	54¢	$3	0x8889c4…
05-25 13:23:17	T20 Blast: Lancashire vs Nottinghamshire	Nottinghamshire	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf288ad…
05-25 13:23:10	T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussex	Kent	BUY	6	50¢	$3	0x965b5f…
05-25 13:23:03	Roland Garros WTA: Camila Osorio vs Ekaterina Alexandrova	Camila Osorio	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x5609ce…
05-25 13:22:57	Roland Garros WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Ella Seidel	Jelena Ostapenko	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xfa19a5…
05-25 13:22:54	Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic	Panna Udvardy	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xb5cc3d…
05-25 13:22:49	World Championships: USA vs. Hungary	USA	BUY	23	97¢	$22	0xdffdbc…
05-25 13:22:43	Will Tromsø IL win on 2026-05-25?	Yes	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xcf1993…
05-25 13:22:38	Will Molde FK win on 2026-05-25?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xb6c96c…
05-25 13:22:33	Will KFUM-Kameratene Oslo win on 2026-05-25?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0xdf644b…
05-25 13:22:26	Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Andrea Pellegrino	Andrea Pellegrino	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x541e5d…
05-25 13:22:19	Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev	Andrey Rublev	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0x8aa247…
05-25 13:21:47	Roland Garros WTA: Talia Gibson vs Yulia Putintseva	Yulia Putintseva	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x77a3c5…
05-25 13:21:40	Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean	Kaitlin Quevedo	BUY	7	56¢	$4	0x76a2b0…
05-25 13:21:33	Will IK Start win on 2026-05-25?	Yes	BUY	5	86¢	$4	0x246009…
05-25 13:21:28	Vicenza: Tristan Boyer vs Miguel Damas	Tristan Boyer	BUY	6	66¢	$4	0x28843f…
05-25 13:21:21	Centurion: Harold Mayot vs Millen Hurrion	Harold Mayot	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x618044…
05-25 13:20:18	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xbf6a12…
05-25 13:20:09	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026?	No	BUY	100	92¢	$92	0x040184…
05-25 13:19:45	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7ca2b8…
05-25 13:19:38	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	88¢	$9	0x0e1f21…
05-25 13:19:33	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x44df83…
05-24 00:11:00	Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xc8c5d5…
05-24 00:10:57	Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x15a8a9…
05-24 00:10:46	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on May 24?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xfb8ce3…
05-24 00:10:24	Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	70¢	$7	0x4e2c15…
05-24 00:10:18	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x6ba708…
05-24 00:10:13	Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 24?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcba503…
05-24 00:08:00	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $680 in May?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x071458…
05-24 00:07:39	Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0x19a4ad…
05-24 00:07:32	Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x73ce2d…
05-24 00:07:29	Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1d7467…
05-24 00:07:01	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x7c5e22…
05-24 00:06:54	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa6aee6…
05-24 00:06:45	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xc53ea7…
05-20 15:31:40	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xbbbf78…
05-20 15:31:23	Will Ethereum reach $2,500 May 18-24?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xac4490…
05-20 15:31:09	Bitcoin Up or Down on May 20?	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x66a633…
05-20 15:30:55	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 20?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x73fbf4…
05-20 15:30:01	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on May 20?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x24d7d0…
05-20 15:29:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0x2600c7…
05-14 12:04:40	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	SELL	540	100¢	$538	0x864c73…
05-14 11:41:41	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	90	100¢	$90	0x57505a…
05-14 11:39:21	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	135	99¢	$134	0x7f22e4…
05-14 11:38:09	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	135	99¢	$134	0x41b2a8…
05-14 11:36:40	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	540	99¢	$537	0x192dac…
05-12 18:00:24	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	182	46¢	$84	0x699feb…
05-12 17:59:23	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	920	46¢	$423	0x7c1b8c…
05-12 15:28:01	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xb49d73…
05-12 15:18:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa46ae9…
05-12 15:08:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x1b6aaf…
05-12 14:58:09	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2adce1…
05-12 14:48:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x76f953…
05-12 14:47:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9435d9…
05-12 14:38:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa662a5…
05-12 14:28:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x93a915…
05-12 14:27:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x9c598e…
05-12 14:22:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	200	46¢	$92	0x3a9816…
05-12 14:18:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xecce96…
05-12 14:08:07	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x1b846a…
05-12 14:07:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	185	46¢	$85	0x6f30e7…
05-12 13:58:11	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa17c69…
05-12 13:48:17	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7783e8…
05-12 13:48:02	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x54b63c…
05-12 13:38:05	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x3c4c1d…
05-12 13:29:44	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	9	46¢	$4	0x12f3e6…
05-12 13:28:52	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x369196…
05-12 13:28:36	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x09bc10…
05-12 13:28:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x7ed06a…
05-12 13:22:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	833	46¢	$383	0x8b3de4…
05-12 13:10:40	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x2ad268…
05-12 12:48:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xd63ff8…
05-12 12:48:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xa02050…
05-12 12:28:03	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xdd737f…
05-12 12:18:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xedbb50…
05-12 12:17:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x64c3eb…
05-12 12:15:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x364509…
05-12 12:14:49	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xffc148…
05-12 12:08:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x45ca87…
05-12 12:05:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x2ae855…
05-12 12:05:18	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	3,326	9¢	$296	0x6f6e51…
05-10 22:52:30	Spurs vs. Timberwolves	Spurs	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x538e7c…
05-10 22:49:30	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	1,581	42¢	$664	0x69c6bb…
05-10 22:32:16	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	BUY	819	42¢	$344	0xd821de…
05-06 10:42:12	Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Zhizhen Zhang vs Daniel Altmaier	Zhizhen Zhang	BUY	10	68¢	$7	0xca418a…
05-04 16:35:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	BUY	400	98¢	$392	0xd86442…
05-04 16:26:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Up	SELL	303	100¢	$303	0x9a13d7…
05-04 16:25:28	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 5?	Yes	BUY	1,510	100¢	$1,507	0x70c706…
05-04 16:24:42	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	400	100¢	$398	0x2e44fd…
05-04 16:24:14	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	200	100¢	$199	0x72970c…